On wage- and profit-led demand regimes: learning from the evidence

Abstract

This paper contributes to the empirical research around the “wage-led” or “profit-led” demand regimes. It first reviews how Kalecki, and then Steindl, approached the relationship between economic growth and income distribution. Then, empirical analysis carried out under the probabilistic approach to econometric modeling shows statistical evidence, estimated through cointegration analysis, that in the long run, in three very open economies—Mexico, France, and Korea—the wage share is positively associated with demand and output. It finally discusses the macroeconomic dilemma that almost all countries have to face, i.e., a positive effect of a high-wage policy on demand and employment may diverge from a negative effect on output compatible with external equilibrium.     

中国农村耐用消费品需求研究

本文利用国家统计局1999年农户家计调查的横截面数据,采用改进的 probit 模型,对影响中国农户家电需求的因素进行了计量分析。与传统文献讨论耐用品需求的思路有所不同,本文重点讨论了影响农户家电购买因素中与基础设施有关的部分。在此基础上,本文试图遵循统计学的原理,将样本中得到的结论推广到整个农村地区,并提出相应的政策建议。     

企业生产率和企业"走出去"对外直接投资:基于企业层面数据的实证研究

随着中国走出去的战略实施,我国企业的对外直接投资也日益增长。通过采用浙江省制造业企业生产和对外直接投资的企业层面数据,在准确衡量"走出去"企业的全要素生产率的基础上,本文考察了企业生产率及其直接对外投资的关系。在控制了回归分析可能的内生性及其他影响因素后,我们发现:第一,生产率越高的企业对外直接投资的概率越大;第二,生产率越高的企业对外直接投资的量越大;第三,目的国的收入水平高低对企业投资与否的决定没有显著的影响。此外,行业的资本密集程度对企业的生存环境没有显著的影响。所以,本文的发现为我国企业的对外直接投资提供了微观层面的经验证据,一定程度上弥补了这方面研究的空白。     

Consumer demand for meat and the evaluation of agricultural policy

This study utilizes an econometric model of equilibrium in the U.S. livestock and feedgrain markets to investigate a number of questions of economic methodology and policy. Both nonlinear consumer demand equations that obey the constraints of neoclassical demand theory and a model of supply are used. This approach allows for the measurement of the effects on consumer welfare of actual government policies. In particular, the model is employed to analyze the welfare effects of an actual policy situation — the sale of U.S. grain to the Soviet Union in the third quarter of 1972.     

Firm–Specific Assets and the Link between Exchange Rates and Japanese Foreign Direct Investment in the United States: A Re–examination

Blonigen has studied Japanese foreign direct investment (FDI) in the USA using panel count models and data for 1975–92. He reports that appreciation of Japanese yen had a positive impact on Japanese FDI in the USA. We re–examine the robustness of this conclusion using Blonigen’s data and a family of econometric models—finite mixture panel count models—that are more flexible and appear to provide an improved fit to his data. Although our results broadly support Blonigen’s conclusions regarding the link between the exchange rate and Japanese FDI in the USA, our approach highlights the considerable diversity in the response of FDI to exchange rate variations. JEL Classification Number: C25.     

Cultural Corridors: An Analysis of Persistence in Impacts on Local Development — A Neo-Weberian Perspective on South-East Europe

Culture matters for economic development. This postulate has been a main conceptual concern for “old” institutional economics (OIE) and has lately also been tested through neoclassically inspired econometric techniques. This conceptual foundation has been confirmed in several quantitative studies on developed countries, in particular cases from the USA, Germany, and Italy. In less developed regions with a wealth of cultural heritage, particularly in South-East Europe, this postulate is still an underexplored issue from the perspective of advanced econometric approaches. Our goal is to examine the impact of the so-called South-East European cultural corridors on welfare — and especially on total employment — at the local or regional level. Accounting for gross value added and sectoral specialization, we examine the effect of such corridors by considering the distance to a cultural corridor: namely, the East Trans-Balkan Road (crossing Romania, Bulgaria, and Greece) as an explanatory factor for regional development, particularly employment. Using the European University Institute (EUI) European Regional Dataset (ERD), as well as the geo-data from the Cultural Corridors of the South-East Europe website, we estimate a regression model using a 2SLS instrumental variable (IV) approach, with a pooled dataset at the NUTS 3 level (Eurostat) from 1980 to 2011. We then triangulate the results by using the distance to the cultural corridor concerned as a treatment effect in a propensity-score-matching and difference-in-differences exploratory analysis. The findings confirm the importance of distance to the cultural corridor under investigation as a strong predictor for local socio-economic development. The results further suggest that the slow evolution of culture over time is likely to lead to the gradual emergence of new geographical cultural centers and a new cultural path-dependence build-up of persistence chains.     

DUOPOLY IN THE JAPANESE AIRLINE MARKET: BAYESIAN ESTIMATION FOR THE ENTRY GAME*

This paper provides an econometric analysis of a duopoly game in the Japanese domestic airline market. We establish a novel Bayesian estimation approach for the entry game, which allows the incorporation of flexible inference techniques. We find asymmetric strategic interactions between Japanese firms. This result implies that competition is still influenced by the former regulation regime. Furthermore, our prediction analysis indicates that the new Shizuoka airport will suffer from a lack of demand in the future.     

Embracing Model Uncertainty: Strategies for Response Pooling and Model Averaging

Econometricians modeling Stated Preference (SP) data, and most other types of data, are confronted with the uncomfortable reality that our knowledge of the “true” model is limited, with only certain variables suggested by the application at hand and general classes of functional forms and error structures suggested by the literature. Accepting our limited knowledge, we pursue strategies for analyzing SP data that are more robust to uncertainties in our knowledge of the true model. These include non-parametric and parametric likelihood-based tests of pooling responses from different elicitation formats, and a frequentist-based model averaging approach for estimating willingness to pay functions. We argue that these strategies lead to increased econometric integrity and empower the ultimate users of models, such as policy decision-makers and even juries, to better assess the robustness of the results. We apply these approaches to an SP survey of saltwater angling in Alaska which utilized split-sample rankings and ratings elicitation methods. While an important goal of our paper is to develop practicable modeling strategies that will ultimately lead to more robust conclusions and more confidence by the users of SP results, an equally important goal is to engender a critical discussion of how we can make the analysis of SP data more robust.     

中国生物质发电产业发展动力因子研究

介绍了中国生物质发电产业的市场环境和政策环境。基于此,识别生物质发电产业发展的内生动力因子和外源动力因子,并利用计量经济学理论对动力因子的相关性进行分析。建立解释结构模型研究动力因子之间的关系,分析经济要素之间的作用机理。结果表明:所有的动力因子通过不同的途径和方式最终指向政策和资源禀赋因子;能源安全因子、环境保护因子、农村发展因子影响电力需求,投资影响电力供给;合理的要素成本价格需要科学的政策组合进行有效支持。     

Dynamic modeling under linear-exponential loss

We develop a methodology of parametric modeling of time series dynamics when the underlying loss function is linear-exponential (Linex). We propose to directly model the dynamics of the conditional expectation that determines the optimal predictor. The procedure hinges on the exponential quasi-maximum likelihood interpretation of the Linex loss and nicely fits the multiplicative error modeling framework. Many conclusions relating to estimation, inference and forecasting follow from results already available in the econometric literature. The methodology is illustrated using data on United States GNP growth and Treasury bill returns.     

人民币境外存量估计——基于ARDL模型的实证分析

本文根据现金(M0)需求的决定因素,通过建立ARDL模型并将其转换为误差修正模型(ECM)形式,运用1992～2000年的季度数据,通过线性回归拟合出我国境内现金货币需求函数的表达式;并在必要的假设前提下,利用扣除境内需求的方法,估算出2001～2008年境外人民币的存量.结果显示,人民币境外存量的规模呈现出在波动中上升的态势,尤其是2006年以来人民币的跨境流量和境外存量有明显的大幅增加,这与人民币升值有密切关系.人民币境外存量季度末的平均值和最大值已由2001年的116.8亿元和389.6亿元分别增加到2008年的926.5亿元和2007年的1 781.6亿元.另外,人民币境外存量的季节性波动幅度较大,这给我国的货币政策操控带来一定的困难.     

GROWTH ACCOUNTING AND PRODUCTIVITY MEASUREMENT*

This paper compares the growth accounting approaches to aggregate productivity measurement and analysis of three major researchers: E. F. Denison, D. W. Jorgenson, and J. W. Kendrick. The investigetors are compared in terms of their treatment of a number of crucial elements, including measurement of output and of capital and labor inputs (including composition or quality changes), total factor productivity growth, economies of scale, and intensity of demand (for output). Judged by the standard of the neoclassical economic theory of production-the only generally accepted basis for input aggregation-Denison departs significantly from the production theory framework in his measurement of output and capital input, Kendrick to some degree in his measure of capital input, and Jorgenson not at all. The effects of these departures are illustrated with reference to the recent productivity slowdown. The probable near-term future utility of growth accounting methods for productivity analysis is assessed, and some related econometric modeling issues are noted.     

Revisiting carbon Kuznets curves with endogenous breaks modeling: evidence of decoupling and saturation (but few inverted-Us) for individual OECD countries

This paper tests for a carbon Kuznets curve (CKC) by examining the carbon emissions per capita–GDP per capita relationship individually, for 21 OECD countries over 1870–2010 using a reduced-form, linear model that allows for multiple endogenously determined breaks. This approach addresses several important econometric and modeling issues, e.g., (1) it is highly flexible and can approximate complicated nonlinear relationships without presuming a priori any particular relationship; (2) it avoids the nonlinear transformations of potentially nonstationary income. For 10 of 14 countries that were ultimately estimated, the uncovered emission–income relationship was either (1) decoupling—where income no longer affected emissions in a statistically significant way, (2) saturation—where the emissions elasticity of income is declining, less than proportional, but still positive, or (3) no transition—where the emissions elasticity of income is (or very near) unity. For only four countries did the emissions–income relationship become negative—i.e., a CKC. In concert with previous work, we conclude that the finding of a CKC is country-specific and that the shared timing among countries is important in income-environment transitions.     

Modeling corner solutions with panel data: Application to the industrial energy demand in France

This paper provides an empirical application of Lee and Pitts (1986) approach to the problem of corner solutions in the case of panel data. This model deals with corner solutions in a manner consistent with the firm behavior theory while controlling for unobserved heterogeneity. In this model, energy demand at industrial plant level is the result of a discrete choice of the type of the energy to be consumed and a continuous choice that defines the level of demand. The econometric model is, essentially, an endogenous switching regime model which requires the evaluation of multivariate probability integrals. We estimate the random effect model by maximum likelihood using a panel of industrial French plants from the paper and pulp industry. We calculate empirical price elasticities of energy demand from the model. We also study the effects on energy demand of an environmental policy aimed at reducing CO₂ emissions. The authors are grateful to the Institut Français de eEnergie for its financial support and to the SESSI for providing the data. We would like to thank two anonymous referees for useful comments and suggestions. the usual disclaimer applies.     

中国保险业效率的实证分析

中国于2001年加入WTO,在2006年必须对外完全开放国内保险市场。然而,国内保险市场主要份额迄今仍由少数几家大型国有的或政府控制的公司所占有。由于国内保险市场欠发达,对保险的需要仍在呈现指数式上涨,所以对非国有的、海外的和合资保险公司来说存在着巨大的潜力、机遇和挑战。效率是政策制定者进一步鼓励保险业发展而关注的一个关键性因素。本文将集中探讨这个问题。本文使用了中国22家保险公司1999—2002年的一组数据,运用DEA方法评估了它们的效率分数,并应用一个计量经济学模型鉴别和确定了决定效率高低的主要因素。本文实证分析结果指出了提高保险公司效率的方向,并证明公司规模、所有制形式、营销方式和人力资本是影响保险公司效率的重要因素。本文的结论还为未来中国保险业发展的改革政策设计与执行提供了理论和经验支持。     

EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION AND EXPORT PERFORMANCE BY DESTINATION COUNTRY

The main focus of this paper is the relationship between export diversification and export performance. The key difference with respect to the previous literature is that export diversification is measured and related to export volume by destination country. The approach is empirical and an aggregate export demand setting is adopted to test the significance and influence of export diversification, measured via the Herfindahl index, on export performance by destination country. The econometric estimation is performed using export data for Spain to its partner countries for the period 1999–2011. The main finding is the positive relationship between Spanish export concentration and export performance by destination market. This finding is shown to be robust to several econometric specifications.     

Disentangling the demand function from the production function for local public services: The case of public safety

In this paper we develop a theoretical framework and an econometric model which allow us to separate the effect of income and other socioeconomic variables on the demand for publicly provided goods from their effect on the price of those goods. We apply our approach in a study of expenditures for police protection in a cross-section of 73 U.S. cities and counties. Our results suggest that studies of public expenditures which fail to incorporate community characteristics in production and cost functions can yield very misleading results.     

Accounting for Spatial Effects in Economic Models of Land Use: Recent Developments and Challenges Ahead

The marked increase in the availability of spatial data has forced researchers engaged in land use modeling to directly confront the question of space and the theoretical and methodological challenges involved in developing spatial models. Advances have come from multiple disciplines, most notably through the development and application of spatial theory and methods from regional science, geography, urban economics and more recently, theoretical and applied econometrics. The main goal of this paper is to summarize the econometric challenges of spatial data and to highlight spatial models and methods with a particular focus on models of land markets and land use change. We also discuss the data and modeling challenges associated with modeling the underlying spatial economic mechanisms that give rise to land use patterns and the complexities involved in modeling land use as a coupled economic-ecological system.     

Exchange rate fluctuations and labour market adjustments in Canadian manufacturing industries

We estimate the link between exchange rate fluctuations and the labour input of Canadian manufacturing industries. The analysis is based on a dynamic model of labour demand and the econometric strategy employs a panel two‐step approach for cointegrating regressions. Our data are drawn from a panel of 20 manufacturing industries from the KLEMS database and cover a long sample period that includes all cycles of appreciation and depreciation of the Canadian dollar over the last 50 years. Our results indicate that exchange rate fluctuations have significant long‐term effects on the labour input of Canada's manufacturing industries, especially for trade‐oriented industries, but that these long‐term impacts materialize very gradually following shocks.