城市轨道交通对房地产价值的影响研究——以武汉市轨道交通为例

城市轨道交通是一种快捷、高效、节能环保的大容量城市客运交通方式,而且对于沿线房地产的开发具有巨大的带动作用。本文定性分析了城市轨道交通对房地产价值的影响机理,并采用地价影响函数模型,对武汉城市轨道交通1号线地价影响函数相关参数进行了标定,定量研究证实了城市轨道交通对房地产价值的拉动作用,最后提出了武汉市轨道交通与房地产联合开发策略。     

Impact of transit stations on house prices across entire price spectrum: A quantile regression approach

This study provides evidence on the impact of a heavy-rail-based transit station on house prices by employing quantile regression method on a dataset that inventories sales transactions of single-family houses during the January 2000–April 2018 period, and within eight kilometers (five miles) of the Warm Springs station of the San Francisco Bay Area Rapid Transit system. The station is located in Fremont, CA. The results show that a) the station increased house prices across the entire price spectrum, and b) the price increase began more than ten years before the rail service commenced. On a larger note, this study should strengthen efforts to a) provide or extend heavy-rail-based rapid transit systems in areas of high need and b) explore the use of value capture tools to fund transit.     

征地补偿标准研究综述

在对国内外论述进行总结的基础上,认为当前我国征地补偿标准的改革方向在于:从农地产权和价值功能等人手,分析征地补偿标准构成,重构征地补偿标准体系;顺应市场经济潮流,建立按价补偿的思路;不区分公益和非公益用地,建立统一的征地地价体系;突出区域因素对征地补偿标准的影响,建立与区域差异相协调的征地补偿标准.     

Property taxation and rural land values: Their effect on private forestland ownership structure in Texas

The objective of this study was to estimate the effect of property tax and rural land market value on the ownership structure of private forestland in Texas. Using county-level panel data in an Instrumental Variable regression framework, we estimated the effect of property tax rate and rural land value on two measures of ownership fragmentation: the total number of private forest landowners and the average size of private forest holdings. The results indicate that after controlling for the total amount of private forest area in a county, both property tax rates and rural land values increased ownership fragmentation. However, the rate of ownership fragmentation was relatively inelastic in both property tax rate and rural land value. While further restructuring local property tax rates might minimize the negative effect on private ownership dynamics, policy instruments that decrease the disparity between productivity value and market value of rural forestland might be needed to check the ongoing ownership fragmentation in Texas and elsewhere in the United States.     

Does the estimated impact of wildfires vary with the housing price distribution? A quantile regression approach

Hedonic property models are commonly applied in the environmental economics literature to estimate values of environmental amenities or hazards. Most hedonic property models are estimated using linear regression techniques where the coefficient on the environmental variable of interest is the “marginal implicit price.” Linear regression estimates one coefficient for the entire distribution of the dependent variable, and thus in hedonic property models a single marginal implicit price. In contrast, quantile regression estimates a range of marginal impacts for different quantiles of the distribution for the dependent variable, consequently providing a significantly more “complete picture” of the true impact of the explanatory variable (Koeneker and Hallock, 2001). We contribute to the existing hedonic property literature by estimating the impact of repeated wildfires on house prices in Southern California using quantile regression. We find that the impact of a wildfire differs significantly across the distribution of house prices, with estimated coefficients varying as much as 73% from the 25th quantile relative to the 75th quantile. We also find that OLS results under-estimate impacts relative to the median quantile, yet over-estimate impacts for lower quantiles. Our results indicate that a quantile regression approach can provide policymakers and researchers more information about the marginal implicit price in hedonic models as it relates to the distribution of the dependent variable.     

农村集体建设用地流转价值评估方法述评

十八届三中全会《决定》提出:"建立城乡统一建设用地市场,在符合规划和用途管制前提下,允许农村集体经营性建设用地出让、租赁、入股,实行与国有土地同等入市、同权同价。"但目前受到我国现行土地制度的制约和影响,农村集体建设用地的流转模式、流转价格评估等相关研究尚处于摸索和尝试阶段,目前有一些专家学者对农村集体建设用地流转价值的测算方法进行研究,文章通过对现有文献进行梳理,分析发现农村集体建设用地价值评估方法主要分为以下几类:(1)农村宅基地退出和拆迁补偿式价值评估,(2)农村集体建设用地基准地价测算法,(3)土地发展权下的农村集体建设用地价值评估,(4)经济和生态价值综合考量下的集体土地价值评估,(5)多种评估方法相结合的农村集体建设用地价值评估。通过分析现有研究成果、经验及不足之处,为农村建设用地流转价值的评估方法提供理论借鉴。     

Do land price variation and environmental regulation improve chemical industrial agglomeration? A regional analysis in China

China’s governments have a strong control over resources, such as land resources, and determine environmental policies for the nation. As an essential part of the production cost of chemical enterprises, land price and pollution costs play a critical role in location selection. However, whether the current incompletely competitive industrial land market and improving environmental regulations in China would affect chemical industrial agglomeration (CIA) is unclear. This study incorporates the land price variations, environmental regulation, and CIA into one research framework. Calculation methods of industrial land price variation (LPV), environmental regulation (ERI), and CIA are established, to reveal their development level. Furthermore, a geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) model is established to estimate the spatial and temporal impacts of land price variation and environmental regulation on CIA by using a panel data from 2007 to 2015. The results show significant spatial differences in the impacts of land price variation and environmental regulation on CIA between cities. The majority of the impacts of land price variation and environmental regulation on CIA are negative. However, the temporal change in the impacts are not as significant as the spatial change. Other control variables, namely, free trade, natural resources, and highway density, have a positive impact on CIA.     

农地征收价格构成与土地增值的关系

研究目的:确定适用于社会主义市场经济条件下的农地征收价格构成及土地增值空间。研究方法:文献资料法和数理统计方法。研究结果:(1)以被征地方为研究对象,从产权和消费者行为理论角度,确定农地征收价格构成。(2)以政府为对象,进行农地转为建设用地的成本收益分析,确定土地增值空间。研究结论:(1)社会主义市场经济条件下,以农地为对象,不考虑“经济人”特点确定的农地征收价格是不完整的;(2)农地社会保障价格是农地征收价格的组成部分,其实质不是土地增值;(3)根据产权理论,政府正在逐渐还原农地征收价格。     

Land economic rent computation for urban planning and fiscal purposes

This article proposes an innovative methodology to compute economic rents of land designed to current or potential offices uses. It consists in the establishment of a cause-and-effect relation between offices’ price levels and correspondent levels of land rent, considering the main factors that influence property prices, the ones that guide public and private activities’ location decisions and the inter-dependencies between land and real estate property markets. The rationale subjacent to this research is that land economic rent is determined by the difference between offices market price and a set of costs correspondent to land acquisition, planning and building processes, and a profit margin. An assessment of surplus values is provided in order to compute it as the difference between total land market value (land economic rent plus economic return on land use) and correspondent tributary patrimonial-value according to legal valuation proceedings (settled on property law). In order to reach these goals, variables that exert influence on urban planning and municipal management were identified, an urban management information system was designed and implemented, and an integrated and interactive model to support decisions in urban planning – concerning real estate offices and land prices and characteristics – was developed. These tools were applied as a case study to Oporto city (Portugal). They embody updating functionalities, setting up as an on-going support to policies of municipal land use management (particularly applied to offices uses). A proposal is made to integrate similar models in territorial plans as valuation tools to support better approaches to assess the impact of planning decisions on real estate and land values, thus informing a more equitable, efficient and local-based tax basis. Implications of this analysis for urban planning and fiscal settings are proposed.     

农地非农化的经济学分析

农地非农化是城市化和工业化发展的必然产物，本文在分析农地非农化实质的基础上，探讨了农地转用价格过低的原因，认为要充分考虑到农地的生态价值、社会价值、选择价值以及产权意义上的价值，把农地的正外部效应充分内化，修正扭曲的农地资源价格体系，在一定程度上可以抑制非农用地的数量。并且运用农地非农化土地一级市场的模型，认为存在农转非市场失灵，政府要在多目标决策的前提下进行干预，通过提高价格来降低农地市场供给曲线的弹性，从而起到控制农地非农化的数量。     

土地增值管理问题研究进展

基于对国内外相关领域重要研究成果的概括．对土地增值的含义、土地增值收益的形成机制、土地增值收益的分配与测算、土地增值管理工具等问题进行了总结分析。土地自然增值是社会经济进步的结果,是研究关注的重点,土地增值在不同利益主体间的分配则是研究的难点。我国土地增值管理中的突出问题表现为土地产权界定不清晰。土地增值收益流失、回归途径缺乏;征地补偿标准过低、农民权益受损;土地租、税、费体系不合理。未来应加强对土地增值收益分配和管理的实证分析、分类研究;必须加强基于土地公有制基础上的土地产权理论、土地租税理论和土地增值收益管理理论创新研究。     

农地非农化的经济学分析

农地非农化是城市化和工业化发展的必然产物.在分析农地非农化实质的基础上,探讨了农地转用价格过低的原因,认为要充分考虑到农地的生态价值、社会价值、选择价值以及产权意义上的价值,把农地的正外部效应充分内化,修正扭曲的农地资源价格体系,在一定程度上可以抑制非农用地的数量.运用农地非农化土地一级市场的模型,认为存在农转非市场失灵,政府要在多目标决策的前提下进行干预,通过提高价格来降低农地市场供给曲线的弹性,从而起到控制农地非农化的数量.     

地价动态监测中数字地价模型建立方法——以武汉市为例

根据《城市地价动态监测体系技术规范》的要求,针对现有地价监测点存在的问题,运用地统计学的理论,利用空间插值充分挖掘地价监测点中的隐含信息,将地价监测点内插生成数字地价模型的原理和方法运用到武汉市地价动态监测中,利用收集的资料建立武汉市数字地价模型,并通过该模型实现地价监测在地价时空分析、基准地价更新、地价信息化建设等方面应用。     

土地整理的产权经济关系与土地价格评估

土地整理投资、整理地块经营使用及产权转移均涉及其产权经济关系的变化,而且在这一变化过程中,土地价格起着非常重要的作用。作者先针对不同土地整理方式分析其产权关系和经济关系,再从土地整理开发投资的角度分析土地整理投资与土地价格的关系,讨论了整理地块价格评估的方法,并提出整理地块的价格评估应以产权关系为基础,遵循市场规律、公正地评估其公开市场价格,引入价格机制促进土地整理的顺利发展。     

The impact of flood dynamics on property values

There is evidence that environmental amenities and dis-amenities may be nonlinearly related to property valuation. This would bring inconsistency in estimating environmental variables of the hedonic price model. To explore the linearity of the relationship this study analyses spatial and temporal variation impacts of the 2011 Brisbane flood on property markets using semi-parametric estimation. The results show that most environmental variables impacts on property values nonlinearly, and in particularly distance to the river, indicating that the amenity value of being close to a river outweighs the flood risks. The estimation of the combined impact of elapsed time and neighbourhood income indicates that the flood risk impact on property markets disappears over time.     

2018年土地科学研究重点进展评述及2019年展望 ——土地经济分报告

研究目的：梳理并比较2018年国内外土地经济领域研究进展和研究重点,展望未来研究方向。研究方法：文献法。研究结果：2018年,土地价格、土地市场化、土地产权安排、土地征收和土地改革等是国内外共同的研究焦点。国外研究关注城市土地价格的变化趋势、土地市场不完善的原因、产权稳定性与生产效率的关系、土地改革的成效等,而国内研究重点关注农地流转的意愿和价格、失地农民的福利、产权稳定性与农业投资的关系、土地制度演化变迁过程以及集体土地“三权分置”等问题。研究结论：2018年,土地经济领域研究在土地制度变迁过程、土地流转市场新体系、土地供给、土地细碎化、征地影响因素等方面有所进展。2019年将重点关注实现乡村振兴的土地政策、宅基地“三权分置”改革、农村土地制度改革试点跟踪评估、土地经营权流转和融资担保制度等。     

Inequity of land valuation in the highly developed city of Taipei,Taiwan

Taiwan has a wealth of experience in employing a graded, or split-rate, property tax. It is believed that a graded property tax can increase the capital intensity of improvements to land, and thus improve economic activities. In order to achieve this, land value needs to be extracted from the price of an improved property. Despite the long history of a graded property tax in Taiwan, the accuracy and corresponding equity issues of land valuation have so far received scant attention. This study adopts a linear regression model with data sets of both vacant land and improved property to separate land and structure values. This approach solves the common problem of scarce land sales and the empirical results turn out satisfactorily. The empirical findings suggest that the ratio of land value to total property price varies across property types and age of property. In addition, the current practice is likely to contribute to assessment inequity, and consequently tax inequity. All these observations call for the need to overhaul the present property assessment system.     

Management flexibility,price uncertainty and the adoption of carbon forestry

A price on carbon has the potential to drive significant land use change through reforestation. Understanding the likely locations and extent of these changes is therefore a key focus for researchers and policy makers. Models of reforestation based on net present values (NPV) typically compare the economic returns of carbon forestry to alternative land uses. However, these models often neglect the impact of uncertainty. Two sources of uncertainty highly relevant to carbon forestry are the opportunity cost of the land on which the trees are established (i.e. future returns from alternative land uses) and carbon prices. In addition to foregoing the current land use, a landowner making a permanent land use change such as carbon forestry is also giving up the opportunity to change management in the future, for example by changing crop mix in response to commodity price changes. We develop a Monte Carlo model to demonstrate the value of management flexibility, based on a case study property in Australia. While in the absence of management flexibility carbon forestry is more profitable than the current land use, under uncertain future commodity prices it is less attractive to a landowner. We go on to show that, even if the returns from carbon exceed those from more flexible agricultural land use, uncertainty over future carbon prices is likely to delay the adoption of carbon forestry. Overall the models presented in this paper demonstrate that the adoption of carbon forestry is likely to be substantially lower, and slower, than models based on static values would suggest.     

金融发展对城市地价的影响效应分析

研究目的:构建城市地价均衡模型,从理论和实证层面研究金融发展对城市商业地价和住宅地价的影响作用,为国家地价调控政策的制定提供理论依据。研究方法:岭回归分析。研究结果:人均贷款规模对城市商业和住宅地价具有显著的正向影响且强度基本相同,而人均存款规模只对住宅地价产生影响,但对地价变动的贡献小于贷款规模;金融相关比率对城市地价的影响效应尚不显著;工资水平对地价的影响强度要明显大于贷款规模。研究结论:当前阶段,居民收入水平的增加是地价上涨的主要因素,但金融发展规模特别是贷款规模对城市地价具有显著的影响,因此在金融结构尚未对地价产生明显影响之时,控制货币供应对稳定地价具有重要意义。     

香港“轨道交通＋土地综合利用”模式的启示

香港＂轨道交通＋土地综合利用＂的模式是一种集地铁投资、建设、运营和沿线土地综合开发于一体的综合开发模式,是由港铁统筹开发的。从运作流程上分为项目谋划、项目明确、项目开发和项目运营四个阶段,在营造高效率的公共交通体系、促进土地高度集约、节约利用等方面都取得了明显效益。对我国城镇交通发展有五点启示和借鉴：（1）交通规划与土地规划同步进行、有机结合;（2）推进经营性土地有偿使用;（3）运用节地技术和模式,充分发挥土地的复合利用功能;（4）分层出让,实现土地利用的多元化价值;（5）拓展融资渠道,实现轨道交通多渠道投融资。