Internal conflict and Bank liquidity creation: Evidence from the belt and Road initiative

The Belt and Road Initiative is the most important international economic strategy in the 21st Century initiated by China. In this paper, we conduct the first international study on the effects of the host country’s internal conflict risk of the Belt and Road Initiative on bank liquidity creation, one of the key functions banks provide for the public. We find that the host country’s internal conflict risk negatively affects bank liquidity creation. The results are also economically significant and robust to subsample tests. It also indicates that Chinese firms that will conduct foreign investments in the countries of the Belt and Road Initiative should take the host country’s internal conflict risk into account.     

The dark side of liquidity regulation: Bank opacity and funding liquidity risk

We evaluate how the liquidity coverage rule affects US banks’ opacity and funding liquidity risk. Banks subject to the rule become significantly more opaque and funding liquidity risk increases by $245 million per quarter. Higher funding liquidity risk is more pronounced among banks that are subject to the rule’s more stringent liquidity buffers, and systemically riskier banks. Rising opacity reflects an increase in banks’ holdings of complex assets whose value is difficult to communicate to investors. The evidence highlights the unintended consequences of liquidity regulation and is consistent with theoretical models’ predictions of a trade-off between liquidity buffers and bank opacity that exacerbates funding liquidity risk.     

Value creation and business models: Refocusing the intellectual capital debate

There is currently significant debate worldwide regarding business reporting. The concept of the ‘business model’ has entered into the discourse, as has the concept of ‘integrated reporting’, adding to the established debate regarding accounting for intangible assets and, more generally, intellectual capital (IC). Despite the tradition of extensive interdisciplinary borrowing in accounting, relevant literatures on business models and on modern managerial perspectives on competitive advantage have, to date, largely been ignored within the accounting literature. The main contribution of this conceptual paper is to identify and discuss the key features of these literature strands and their linkage to contemporary debates on narrative reporting. These conceptual linkages between IC, value creation and business models are illustrated by means of interview evidence from eleven company cases. It is concluded that the business model concept offers a powerful overarching concept within which to refocus the IC debate. The concept is holistic, multi-level, boundary-spanning and dynamic. The analysis supports the current calls for integrated disclosure around the central business model story. Suggestions for future research are offered.     

Bank liquidity creation,monetary policy,and financial crises

This paper examines the interplay among bank liquidity creation (which incorporates all bank on- and off-balance sheet activities), monetary policy, and financial crises. We find that: (1) high liquidity creation (relative to trend) – particularly off-balance sheet liquidity creation – helps predict crises, controlling for other factors; (2) monetary policy has statistically significant, but economically minor effects on liquidity creation by small banks during normal times, and these effects are even weaker during financial crises; (3) monetary policy has very little effects on medium and large bank liquidity creation during both normal times and crises. These findings suggest that authorities may wish to monitor bank liquidity creation closely in order to predict and perhaps lessen the likelihood of financial crises. They might also consider other tools to control bank liquidity creation, such as capital and liquidity requirements.     

Bank funding structures and risk: Evidence from the global financial crisis

This paper analyzes the evolution of bank funding structures in the run up to the global financial crisis and studies the implications for financial stability, exploiting a bank-level dataset that covers about 11,000 banks in the U.S. and Europe during 2001–09. The results show that banks with weaker structural liquidity and higher leverage in the pre-crisis period were more likely to fail afterward. The likelihood of bank failure also increases with pre-crisis bank risk-taking. In the cross-section, the smaller domestically-oriented banks were relatively more vulnerable to liquidity risk, while the large cross-border (Global) banks were more vulnerable to solvency risk due to excessive leverage. In fact, a 3.5 percentage point increase in the pre-crisis capital buffers of Global banks would have caused a 48 percentage point in their probability of failure during the crisis. The results support the proposed Basel III regulations on structural liquidity and leverage, but suggest that emphasis should be placed on the latter, particularly for the systemically-important institutions. Macroeconomic and monetary conditions are also shown to be related with the likelihood of bank failure, providing a case for the introduction of a macro-prudential approach to banking regulation.     

Inefficient liquidity creation

We present a model in which intermediaries create liquidity by issuing safe debt. Two types of intermediaries emerge: Traditional banks that create liquidity by issuing equity and holding assets to maturity, and market-based intermediaries that create liquidity by selling assets in fire sales in downturns. We show that the reliance on market-based intermediation is necessarily too high, but liquidity creation is not. It can also be too low as the endogenous fire-sale risk can push liquidity creation below its optimum. We argue that standard capital or liquidity regulation are ineffective, and optimal macroprudential regulation should instead target market-based intermediation.     

Bank liquidity creation and real economic output

We find that bank liquidity creation (LC) is statistically and economically significantly positively related to real economic output (GDP). This is robust to using instrumental variables and many robustness checks. LC also beats bank assets in “horse races.” On-balance sheet LC matters more for small banks and off-balance sheet LC matters more for large banks. Small bank LC generates more GDP per dollar than large bank LC, but large bank LC matters more overall because large banks provide much more LC than small banks. The LC-output relation is strongest in bank-dependent industries, consistent with the hypothesized transmission mechanism.     

A bibliometric review of liquidity creation

Liquidity creation is a core function of financial intermediation and an important factor for economic growth. Using performance and bibliometric analysis, we trace the knowledge structure of the academic research on liquidity creation conducted over 45 years. Bibliographic material from the Scopus database is used to perform co-citation, co-word, and bibliographic coupling analyses of influential aspects of the literature, such as authors, articles, journals, countries, institutions, and topics. Through content analysis, we identify three prevalent areas of research in this field of study.     

银行危机救助策略的分析

银行危机的救助策略一直是理论界关注的焦点。本文通过构建一个两期模型,以银行危机是否会引发货币危机为评判标准,探讨政府在面对商业银行清偿能力危机时救助与不救助的抉择。经研究发现:当商业银行的不良资产率高,或商业银行在经济中起重要作用,抑或产出的价格弹性较小时,为了避免货币危机的发生,政府应该出手对商业银行提供救助。在相反的情况时,固定汇率制度下,政府为了维护其固定汇率的信誉应该出手对商业银行提供救助;浮动或管理浮动汇率制度下,考虑到商业银行的道德风险问题,政府应该不予以救助。     

How investor demands for safety influence bank capital and liquidity trade-offs

We construct a model of a bank’s optimal funding choice, where the bank negotiates with both safety-driven short-term bondholders and (mostly) risk-taking long-term bondholders. We establish that investor demands for safety create a negative relationship between the bank’s capital choices and short-term funding, as well as negative relationships between capital and common measures of bank liquidity. Short-term investors’ demands for safety force the bank to hold more collateral, which diminishes the demands by long-term bondholders for higher holdings of bank capital. Consistent with our model, our bank-level empirical analysis of these capital–liquidity trade-offs shows that bank liquidity measures have a strong and negative relationship to the capital ratio. Furthermore, we show that this trade-off does not appear to be regulation related and has diminished in size over time.     

Bank liquidity creation following regulatory interventions and capital support

We study the effects of regulatory interventions and capital support (bailouts) on banks’ liquidity creation. We rely on instrumental variables to deal with possible endogeneity concerns. Our key findings, which are based on a unique supervisory German dataset, are that regulatory interventions robustly trigger decreases in liquidity creation, while capital support does not affect liquidity creation. Additional results include the effects of these actions on different components of liquidity creation, lending, and risk taking. Our findings provide new and important insights into the debates about the design of regulatory interventions and bailouts.     

Flight to liquidity and the Great Recession

This paper argues that counter-cyclical liquidity hoarding by financial intermediaries may strongly amplify business cycles. It develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in which banks operate subject to agency problems and funding liquidity risk in their intermediation activity. Importantly, the amount of liquidity reserves held in the financial sector is determined endogenously: Balance sheet constraints force banks to trade off insurance against funding outflows with loan scale. A financial crisis, simulated as an abrupt decline in the collateral value of bank assets, triggers a flight to liquidity, which strongly amplifies the initial shock and induces credit crunch dynamics sharing key features with the Great Recession. The paper thus develops a new balance sheet channel of shock transmission that works through the composition of banks’ asset portfolios.     

Capital and liquidity ratios and financial distress. Evidence from the European banking industry

Using a large bank-level dataset, we test the relevance of both structural liquidity and capital ratios, as defined in Basel III, on banks' probability of failure. To include all relevant episodes of bank failure and distress (F&D) occurring in the EU-28 member states over the past decade, we develop a broad indicator that includes information not only on bankruptcies, liquidations, under receivership and dissolved banks, but also accounts for state interventions, mergers in distress and EBA stress test results. Estimates from several versions of the logistic probability model indicate that the likelihood of failure and distress decreases with increased liquidity holdings, while capital ratios are significant only for large banks. Our results provide support for Basel III's initiatives on structural liquidity and for the increased regulatory focus on large and systemically important banks.     

Bank liquidity regulation and the lender of last resort

Banks can make suboptimal liquidity choices and gamble for lender of last resort (LOLR) support. Endogenous bailout rents are driven by the need to preserve bankers' incentives under uncertain net worth. In equilibrium, banks can herd in risk management, choosing suboptimal liquidity when they expect others to do so. Optimal liquidity can be restored by quantitative requirements, but such regulation is costly. An LOLR policy incorporating bank capital information can reduce distorting rents and allow for a more efficient solution, but may only be possible in transparent economies.     

商业银行经营革命：流程银行的构想与现实

传统商业银行是典型的“部门银行”,其在业务流程、组织结构、管理方式以及企业文化上存在诸多缺陷。“流程银行”是一种全新管理模式,根据客户或市场需求设定业务流程,再根据业务流程设机构和配置人员;业务流程步骤经过整合,形成流程模块,可以避免重复劳作从而提高管理效率;围绕着业务流程,各环节配合衔接紧密,资源配置效率高。从“部门银行”向“流程银行”转型是中国商业银行经营改革的主导方向。     

Bank lending in Switzerland: Driven by business models and exposed to uncertainty

We study the bank lending channel in Switzerland over three decades using unbalanced quarterly bank-individual data spanning 1987 to 2016. We take an agnostic stance on which bank characteristic drives the heterogeneous lending responses to interest rate changes, and estimate the relevant classification of banks. In addition, our empirical model allows for within-group regime-specific lending responses, determined by a latent, estimated state indicator. No single bank characteristic identifies clearly the relevant classification of banks, as several characteristics determining banks’ business models underlie banks’ heterogeneous lending responses. The bank lending channel does not prevail continuously over the observation period. The overall negative effect of interest rate changes on loan growth is partly muted during periods when uncertainty is unusually low or high.     

Banking fragility and liquidity creation: options as a substitute for deposits

Diamond and Rajan (J Finance 55:2431–2465, 2000; Am Econ Rev Papers Proc 91:422–425, 2001a; Carnegie–Rochester Conf Series Public Policy 54:37–71, 2001b; J Pol Econ 109:287–327, 2001c) have shown in a series of papers that it is precisely the fragility of their capital structure which allows banks to create liquidity. This is because the threat of runs by depositors forces bankers to extract full repayment on otherwise illiquid assets. This result has important implications for financial regulation, such as for capital requirements and deposit insurance. This note shows that put options held by bank owners dominate deposit financing in that they also discipline bankers but do not give rise to inefficient runs. Fragility is thus not necessary for liquidity creation in the Diamond–Rajan framework. This paper has substantially benefitted from the comments and suggestions of an anonymous referee.     

分支机构市场准入放松、跨区域经营与银行绩效

2009年中国银监会发布143号文放松了分支机构市场准入规制。借助这一外生政策冲击对商业银行异地分支机构数量的影响,本文通过构造工具变量规范而系统地检验了商业银行跨区域经营对银行绩效的影响。研究结果发现:第一,银监会分支机构市场准入放松对跨区域经营有着显著的促进作用;第二,跨区域经营对商业银行的正面效应表现在市场份额、净息差和收入结构的改善,负面效应表现在营业成本的增加,对总资产收益率的影响并不显著。     

美英央行对受困金融机构的救助方式评鉴

中央银行在危机救助中应该扮演怎样的角色,各国并无统一定论.本文通过深入研究美英央行在金融危机中对受困金融机构采取的救助手段及其履职效果,论证了央行在危机救助中发挥投资功能对平衡金融稳定职责和价格稳定职责具有重要意义,同时也是中央银行最终贷款人职能的必然延伸,可以有效填补央行与财政部门在金融稳定职责方面的模糊地带.     

The impact of bank FinTech on liquidity creation: Evidence from China

This paper examines whether and how bank FinTech affects liquidity creation. Using panel data from Chinese commercial banks over the period 2008–2019 and bank-level FinTech indices constructed by a textual analysis method, we find robust evidence that banks with greater FinTech development create more liquidity for the public. This effect operates through deposit inflow, risk management, and cost efficiency channels. Furthermore, we find that the positive effect of bank FinTech on liquidity creation is more pronounced for banks with non-state ownership, unlisted status, and less liquidity creation.