The state of research on technological uncertainties, social uncertainties and emerging markets: A multidisciplinary literature review

The objective of this research work is to study the progress of research on technological uncertainties, social uncertainties and emerging markets and outline and identify the key disciplines, journals, articles and authors. For this the author studied the existing literature from the various fields in which technological uncertainties, social uncertainties and emerging markets research work have been published using ISI Web of Knowledge database. The paper finds that there is increasing research work on technological uncertainties, social uncertainties and emerging markets and the bibliographical search resulted in ninety-one documents written by one-hundred-sixty-one authors in eighty-four journals in seventy-two disciplines. The five major disciplines and their underlying journals are business and economics, agriculture, psychology, public administration, and environmental sciences and ecology accounting for majority of publications. In journals the most prolific, measured by number of articles published are Harvard Business Review, Social Science and Medicine, World Development, and Higher Education; and most influential, measured by the global citation received, are Harvard Business Review, Social Science and Medicine and Sociological Review. The top 10% of the journals are responsible for 23% of all publications but 85% of all global citations received. This highlights that despite the high, diverse and increasing number of journals; only few are dominating and shaping the research arena of technological uncertainties, social uncertainties and emerging markets. Further, in the ten most cited articles, no author appears more than once.     

Managing technological and social uncertainties of innovation: The evolution of Brazilian energy and agriculture

This paper explores how technological, commercial and social uncertainties shaped the development of Brazilian biofuels. Technological innovation allowed the country to emerge as a global leader, but Brazil continues to struggle with major social uncertainties due to poverty and environmental concerns common in many emerging economies. Contemporary approaches to development within the innovation literature focus primarily on overcoming technological and commercial uncertainties, but only peripherally explore social uncertainties. To fill this void, we draw on Martin and Hall's framework for managing innovative uncertainties, which is based on Kuhn and Popper's approaches to the evolution and methodology of science, and extend it with Aldrich and Fiol's concept of cognitive versus socio-political legitimacy. Based on qualitative data collected in Brazil, we outline the evolution of automotive fuel ethanol and flex-fuel technology, the development of Brazilian soybean production, and castor for socially inclusive biodiesel production. We show how innovation solved some technological and commercial uncertainties and generated new opportunities, but also created additional social uncertainties that are now being addressed. Through this process, Brazil has acquired capabilities in alternative energy technologies and more sustainable agriculture, becoming an exemplar for other emerging economies. We conclude with implications for policy and industry.     

Debt markets and corporate debt structure in an emerging market: The South African example

This is a first attempt at gauging the effects of corporate public debt issuance on the debt structure, risk profile and valuation of firms in an emerging market. We find that financial services firms, along with government institutions, are important early supporters of an organized public debt market. Firms in this market use equity, public debt and private debt funds simultaneously as need be. Consistent with predictions of the corporate debt structure literature, public debt-issuing firms are larger, older, more profitable, and less informational opaque than non-public debt-issuing firms. Moreover, public debt-issuing firms experience significant reductions in both overall and systematic risks, and incur lower cost of capital following issuance than non-public debt issuers. These and other findings of the study suggest deepening national debt markets can be a fruitful financial market development exercise for emerging markets.     

新兴市场公众公司财务报告架构:改革与启示

中国是世界上最大的新兴市场国家之一,研究新兴市场公众公司财务报告架构改革与发展的经验和教训,能够为中国提供有益的启示。本主要探讨新兴市场的公众公司财务报告架构及其改革问题,并在此基础上概括和总结来自新兴市场公众公司财务报告架构及其改革方面的启示。     

在位企业如何开拓新技术市场:商业模式与组织身份共演视角

新技术带来了新机遇,在位企业能否成功把握成为生存关键。采用单案例研究方法,以软件企业为案例研究对象,探索在位企业如何通过商业运营实现新技术市场开拓。研究发现:(1)商业模式与组织身份共演过程中,涌现了惯性思路-身份转移、整合思路-身份延伸、修补思路-身份增补3种演化形式;(2)战略导向变化是商业模式与组织身份演化的动因,出现了由内向外、混合导向和由外向内3种变化;(3)演化中组织身份匹配于商业模式,表现为嫁接匹配、重塑匹配和扩充匹配3种机制。扩展了在位企业应对技术变化的研究视角,丰富了组织身份的动态变化研究,深化了商业模式与技术发展间关系的研究,可为在位企业商业实践提供借鉴。     

Financial cycles in asset markets and regions

This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of financial cycles in asset markets and regions. Using a large sample of 38 advanced and emerging economies to enable a comparative assessment, the analysis conforms with the prevailing literature pertaining to the characterization of financial cycles in advanced economies, but finds that equity market cycles in emerging market economies (EMEs) in Asia, Latin America, and Eastern Europe may be a more useful gauge of the financial cycle compared to cycles in credit and property markets. Similar to more advanced economies, it is found that financial and business cycles in emerging economies are synchronized, albeit partially and with some cross-country heterogeneity. This underscores the importance for policy makers to be vigilant of interlinkages between real and financial sectors, pointing toward a need for carefully designed macroprudential policies. Finally, it is found that financial cycles in emerging markets remain vulnerable to global risk aversion in financial markets and spillovers from the US, thereby reinforcing the importance of continuing to strengthen domestic macroeconomic fundamentals, and develop further local financial sectors through targeted structural reforms.     

Investigating the determinants of domestic bonds: the role of socio-economic and institutional factors

This article investigates the determinants of the size of domestic bond market using economic, social and institutional factors. We expand the body of existing literature by suggesting that economic and social environment as well as institutional settings vary between developed and emerging economies. The article uses recent data from a wide range of countries, incorporates a variety of macroeconomic variables, social indicators and institutional factors to reassess the determinant of domestic bond markets. Robustness of the empirical analysis is established through both two-stage least squares and generalized method of movements techniques. The results of this article show that the size of the economy, breadth and depth of the banking system, the monetary policy stance, the degree of openness, the level of corruption, the degree of civil liberty and status of market access to investors, all play a crucial role in the determination of the size of the domestic bond market. We also find differences across developed and emerging market samples. The results are robust to different specifications and the corresponding estimation techniques.     

新兴技术社会风险化解的前瞻性治理特征

新兴技术这柄“双刃剑”虽然给国家带来新发展动能，但也同时引发诸多社会风险，如何化解新兴技术社会风险成为新兴技术治理面临的难题。前瞻性治理研究为新兴技术社会风险化解提供了一些思考，但是相关研究较为分散和模糊，相关经验难以奏效。运用文本分析法和层次分析法，聚焦治理主体、过程和结果3个要素，提炼新兴技术社会风险化解的前瞻性治理特征，并在中国情境下检验其适用性。结果表明，公众参与结果纳入既定政策议程、否决权、新兴技术公众参与法律法规等前瞻性特征得到专家一致认同，认为它们是新兴技术社会风险化解的必要条件。研究结论对提高新兴技术社会风险治理绩效具有一定理论启示。     

China financial research: A review and synthesis

We review the financial research on China as a transitional economy over the past 15 years or so. This review sheds light on several important issues that are pertinent for an emerging financial market—how regulation can affect the prices of different financial assets; how and why markets are segmented; corporate governance effects between major and minor shareholders in an emerging market; the importance of a bank-based financial system; interactions between the financial market and the goods market; how market participants can complete the market; and how an emerging financial market emulates established markets and evolves over time. Many unexplored financial issues remain unexplored, and more research is warranted into, what theories are at work, and what are missing.     

湖南省军民融合新兴产业发展研究

通过研究军民技术协同创新、市场需求、产业外部性及区域政策等因素对湖南省军民融合新兴产业发展的影响,对湖南省军民融合新兴产业发展3种主要模式：军工依托型、民口嵌套型和军民共生型进行案例分析,提出湖南省军民融合新兴产业仍需加强产业发展规划,坚持政府主导与市场牵引并举,夯实军民融合技术基础,从而推动湖南省国防科技创新,促进经济社会发展。     

未雨绸缪还是杞人忧天——评“汇率浮动恐惧症”

面对金融国际化,新兴市场国应更重视汇率问题.引导新兴市场国的汇率政策选择的理论,如著名的"中间空洞理论"现在遇到越来越多的挑战,因为不少实证研究表明新兴市场国表现出"汇率浮动恐惧症".结合汇率不完全传递率的实证分析以及对贬值紧缩效应等的分析,新兴市场的"汇率浮动恐惧症"是合情但并非合理的表现,新兴市场国家事实上可以享用汇率浮动的好处,无需将自己陷入对浮动的恐惧当中,这样新兴市场国的汇率政策及汇率选择有了更大自由空间.     

Interrelationship between crude oil and the stock markets of major demanders and suppliers in emerging and developed markets

This paper investigates the time-varying relationship between the stock markets of advanced and emerging oil-exporting and oil-importing countries and the international crude oil price indices. The results reveal that the time-varying among the oil-exporting and oil-importing countries responds similarly to aggregate supply- and demand-side effects. Oil-exporting countries have a slightly higher integration with the oil markets, while oil supply shocks have a slightly higher impact on emerging oil-exporting countries. The oil markets exhibit a lower time-varying relationship with the Asia-Pacific oil-importing markets, which indicates those markets may be attractive to investors during periods of turbulence in the oil market.     

Volatility Spillovers and Contagion from Mature to Emerging Stock Markets

This paper models volatility spillovers from mature to emerging stock markets, tests for changes in the transmission mechanism during turbulences in mature markets, and examines the implications for conditional correlations between mature and emerging market returns. Tri‐variate GARCH–BEKK models of returns in mature, regional emerging, and local emerging markets are estimated for 41 emerging market economies (EMEs). Wald tests suggest that mature market volatility affects conditional variances in many emerging markets. Moreover, spillover parameters change during turbulent episodes. In the majority of the sample EMEs, conditional correlations between local and mature markets increase during these episodes. While conditional variances in local markets rise as well, volatility in mature markets rises more, and this shift is the main factor behind the increase in conditional correlations. With few exceptions, conditional beta coefficients between mature and emerging markets tend to be unchanged or lower during turbulences.     

Determining demand, supply, and pricing for emerging markets based on disruptive process technologies

A model for forecasting the likely market size and demand for an early-stage emerging process technology is considered. This method takes into account markets, supply, demand, supply/demand gap, pricing, implications to government policy, corporate strategy, and value of intellectual property. For the purpose of illustration, forecasting of microsystems is considered.     

Are there bubbles in exchange rates? Some new evidence from G10 and emerging market economies

The existence, or otherwise, of bubbles has become a topical issue in economics and finance, particularly following the Global Financial Crisis. Using the generalized sup ADF (GSADF), unit root tests of Phillips et al. (2015a, PSY) we investigate evidence for exchange rate bubbles in some G10, Asian and BRICS countries from Mar.1991-Dec.2014. We conclude that the US$-Mexican Peso crisis of 1994–95 was a bubble. Of particular interest to financial market trading, is that newly emerging countries, with relatively shallow financial markets, may be more likely to exhibit bubbly behavior in foreign exchange markets than more mature G10 countries.     

The more contagion effect on emerging markets: The evidence of DCC-GARCH model

The paper aims to test the existence of financial contagion between foreign exchange markets of several emerging and developed countries during the U.S. subprime crisis. As a result of DCC-GARCH analysis, we find the evidence of contagion during U.S. subprime crisis for most of the developed and emerging countries. Another finding is that emerging markets seem to be the most influenced by the contagion effects during U.S. subprime crisis. Since financial contagion is important for monetary policy, risk measurement, asset pricing and portfolio allocation, the findings of paper may be interest of policy makers, investors and portfolio managers.     

Has co-movement dynamics in emerging stock markets changed after global financial crisis? New evidence from wavelet analysis

In this article, we revisit the issue of contagion, interdependence and changes in correlation structure after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008 between developed and emerging markets in a time-frequency domain using a wavelet-based approach for the period spanning over 1 January 1999 to 8 November 2016. We report evidences of: (a) weaker contagion for Latin American emerging markets during GFC, (b) a strong contagion effect for emerging markets in Europe and the Middle East and (c) a fall in long-run co-movements after GFC, which means by investing in emerging markets, the diversification benefits can be derived in the long run. We report evidence of coexistence of contagion and permanent change in correlation structure.     

Indigenous technological capabilities,emerging market firms and the aerospace industry

While emerging market economies have developed significant technological capabilities and increased their share of global value-added in aerospace, they have done so largely through utilising foreign direct investment (FDI) and offset arrangements to enter supply chains that remain dominated by European and American firms. The paper examines whether emerging markets are developing indigenous technological capability in aerospace technologies. Drawing on patent data from the Thomson Innovation database, the study seeks to understand whether anchor tenant capability is indeed forming in emerging markets. A tech-mining method is applied. The study suggests that China, in particular, has dramatically increased its innovative capacity in the area. However, the data also demonstrate the significant advantages enjoyed by incumbent firms from Europe and the USA, suggesting that the complexity of aircraft R&D remains a formidable barrier that can only be surmounted by determined government policies and anchor firms equipped with substantial innovation capabilities.     

Diversification into Emerging Markets – An Australian and the US Perspective Using a Time‐varying Approach

Over the past two decades, a number of studies have examined the benefits of diversifying equity investments internationally, particularly into emerging markets. In the portfolio construction process, many researchers have criticised Markowitz's Portfolio Theory because of its inherent assumptions such as symmetric and constant correlations. In this study, we use a conditional copula model to estimate the time‐varying asymmetric correlations of stock markets and construct optimal portfolios by using estimated correlations. We find that optimised portfolios provide significant benefits for both Australian and the US investors. Out‐of‐sample results show Copula model provides results closer to the in‐sample‐estimated benefits of diversification. The results have important implications for portfolio managers who seek to diversify into emerging markets.     

How strong is the global integration of emerging market regions? An empirical assessment

This paper attempts to evaluate the time-varying integration of emerging markets from a regional perspective based on a conditional version of the International Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM) with DCC-GARCH parameters that allows for dynamic changes in the degree of market integration, global market risk premium, regional exchange-rate risk premium, and local market risk premium. Our findings reveal several interesting facts. First, the time-varying degree of integration of four emerging regions under consideration, satisfactorily explained by the regional level of trade openness and the term premium of US interest rates, has recently tended to increase, but these markets still remain substantially segmented from the world market. Second, the local market risk premium is found to explain more than 50% of the total risk premium for emerging market returns. Finally, we show that conditional correlations usually underestimate and overstate the measure of time-varying market integration. The empirical results of this study have some important implications for both global investors and policymakers with respect to dedicated portfolio investments in emerging markets and policy adjustments.