FinTech adoption and the effects of economic uncertainty on household consumption

This paper examines how the adoption of FinTech affects household consumption in the presence of economic uncertainty. We use regional-level FinTech adoption and economic uncertainty measurement, along with representative household-level consumption data, to investigate this issue. Our empirical analysis shows that while high levels of economic uncertainty lead to a shift in household consumption from services to non-durable goods, widespread adoption of FinTech overcomes this negative effect and prevents the reduction in service spending. We use the distance of a household from Hangzhou and the economic uncertainty in the United States as proxies for exogenous variation in FinTech adoption and economic uncertainty in China, respectively, and find similar results. Focusing on the transmission channel, we find that FinTech helps alleviate credit constraints, contributes to entrepreneurship and employment opportunities, and thus mitigates the negative impact of economic uncertainty on household consumption.     

Religiosity and household income in Sekhukhune

Literature analysing the interrelation of religion and economic performance suggests religion to explain differences in household income. Religious communities foster economically conducive attitudes and are important sources of social capital, particularly under weak economic structures. This paper targets at investigating effects of religiosity on rural household income using survey data from Greater Sekhukhune in the Limpopo Province of South Africa. Using insights from religious studies within a conceptual framework of rural household decision-making, the authors estimate an income equation that includes measures for religious affiliation. While church membership per se does not reveal a significant effect on household income, the results show a positive and robust relationship for membership in the Zion Christian Church and the practice of African traditional religion.     

Incomes and consumption of the russian population during the crisis and alternatives to the government policies in this sphere

The paper discusses the dynamics of income and consumption of the Russian population in the 2000s, factors of accelerated growth, and the most important changes in the structure of retail turnover within this period. The shifts in the structure of income use and the dynamics of turnover under the effect of the crisis that began in 2008 are analyzed. Forecast estimates for 2009 are presented. Suggestions are formulated for prior anticrisis measures and government policy in the consumption sector.     

Impacts of macroeconomic policies on the Mexican output

This paper examines the potential effects of macroeconomic policies, stock market performance, exchange rate fluctuations, and other related variables on real GDP in Mexico. Extending the works by Arango and Nadiri (1981) and Bahmani‐Oskooee and Ng (2002), and applying comparative‐static analysis, possible effects of a change in the exchange rate or government debt on the equilibrium output are examined. All the variables have unit roots and are stationary in first difference. There is a long‐run stable relationship between real GDP and the right‐hand‐side variables. The GARCH(p,q) (Engle 2001) model is applied to estimate regression parameters. Real GDP is positively associated with real M2, government deficit spending, stock prices, U.S. output, and world oil prices, and negatively affected by the government debt ratio, peso depreciation, and the expected inflation rate. Therefore, fiscal policy to incur more debt needs to be pursued with caution, and both net exports and money demand need to be considered in studying the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on output.     

The political economy of social democratic economic policies: the Pasok experiment in Greece

This article looks at the political economy of social democraticeconomic policies. It focuses on those policies that seek toextend democracy to the social and economic spheres and examineswhy such experiments have met with limited success in the past.It compares external constraints on the viability of such policies,such as the freedom of capital movements and globalization,with internal constraints. Since social democratic policiesrely on promoting coordination and cooperation between economicagents and groups, it is argued that an important, but oftenneglected, internal constraint is the extent to which socialdemocracy can draw upon, or, if they are lacking, foster thoseinstitutions within society which promote coordination and cooperation.The paper examines in detail the social democratic experienceof PASOK in Greece and draws some conclusions for the widerrelevance of the future viability of social democratic economicpolicies.     

The role of credibility in the cyclical properties of macroeconomic policies in emerging economies

Optimal stabilization policy is countercyclical, aiming at keeping output close to its potential. However it has been traditionally argued that emerging countries are unable to adopt countercyclical monetary and fiscal policies. Here we argue that the cyclical properties of macroeconomic policies depend critically on policy credibility. We test this proposition by making use of recent panel data for eleven emerging market economies and time series data for Chile. The evidence supports that countries with higher credibility, as reflected by lower country risk levels, are able to conduct countercyclical fiscal and monetary policies. Conversely, countries with less credible policies (and, therefore, with higher country risk spreads) contribute to larger cyclical fluctuations by applying procyclical policies. For Chile we find that both monetary and fiscal policies have been largely countercyclical after 1993. JEL no. E43, E52, E62     

The multiplier-effect of income and consumption taxes

Zusammenfassung Der Multiplikatoreffekt der Einkommen- und Verbrauchsteuern. — Die Abhandlung stellt die Wirkungen auf gew?hnliche finanzpolitische Multiplikatoren bei Aufgliederung der Volkswirtschaft in Sektoren, bei Annahme variabler Faktorpreise und unterschiedlicher marginaler Konsumneigungen von Lohnbeziehern und Empf?ngern von Residualeinkommen sowie bei Erhebung nichtproportionaler Steuern dar. Es wird gezeigt, da\ die Elemente der regelm?\igen Multiplikatoren bei Variierung dieser Annahmen durch gewogene Durchschnitte der gleichen Elemente ersetzt werden. Diese Werte sind manchmal marginale und manchmal Durchschnittsgewichte. Die Summe dieser Gewichte ist nicht not-wendigerweise gleich eins. Ferner implizieren die ?nderungen in den Annahmen die Verwendung gewisser Berichtigungsglieder in den Formeln. Es werden die gew?hnlichen Multiplikatoren bei ?nderungen der Einkommen- und Verbrauchsteuers?tze in Schaubildern dargestellt und einige Probleme der Multiplikatoren eines ausgeglichenen Budgets diskutiert. Zum Schlu\ werden einige Aspekte einer dynamischen Darstellung er?rtert.

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Résumé L’effet multiplicateur des imp?ts sur le revenu et la consommation. — L’article décrit les effets sur les multiplicateurs usuels de politique financière, quand on prend l’économie par secteurs, quand on suppose des prix de facteurs variables et des penchants marginaux de consommation différents pour les salariés et pour ceux qui ont un revenu restant, et pour le cas d’imp?ts non-proportionnels. Il est démontré qu’en variant ces suppositions, les éléments des multiplicateurs réguliers sont remplacés par des moyennes pondérées des mêmes éléments. Ces valeurs sont ou des poids marginaux, ou bien des poids moyens. Le total de ces poids n’égale pas nécessairement i. Si l’on change les suppositions, il faut introduire dans les formules certains ajustements. Sont donnés des diagrammes des multiplicateurs usuels sous une fluctuation des taux d’imp?t sur le revenu et la consommation, et sont étudiés certains problèmes des multiplicateurs d’un budget équilibré. Finalement, quelques aspects d’une présentation dynamique sont discutés.

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Resumen El efecto multiplicador de los impuestos sobre la renta y sobre el gasto de consumo. — El presente estudio ofrece una exposici?n de los efectos de los multiplicadores fiscales corrientes, teniendo en cuenta la división de la economía en sectores y suponiendo que los precios de los factores de producción son variables, que los asalariados tienen otra propension marginal al consumo que los receptores de ingresos residuales, y que el estado recauda impuestos no-proporcionales. Se demuestra por un lado, que los elementos de los multiplicadores corrientes quedan substitufdos por promedios ponderados de los mismos elementos, si se alteran los supuestos. Estos valores a veces son ponderaciones marginales, a veces ponderaciones por término medio. La suma de estas ponderaciones no es necesariamente igual a la unidad. Además se demuestra, que al variar los supuestos hay que variar tambien las formulas en una manera determinada. El trabajo contiene varios diagramas que expresan la cuantía de los multiplicadores corrientes al variar las tasas de los impuestos sobre la renta y sobre el consumo. Finalmente, se discuten varios problemas del multiplicador del presupuesto equilibrado, asf como algunos aspectos de una presentaci?n dinámica.

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Riassunto L’effetto del moltiplicatore delle imposte sul reddito e di quelle di consumo. — Il saggio espone gli effetti su usuali moltiplicatori politico finanziari nella suddivisione dell’economia in settori, nell’accettazione di prezzi variabili dei fattori e di differenti tendenze marginali dei consumi di salariati e beneficiari di reddito residuale come anche nella riscossione di imposte non proporzionali. Viene mostrato che gli elementi dei moltiplicatori regolari sono sostituiti, nella variazione di queste accettazioni, da medie ponderate degli stessi elementi. Questi valori a volte sono marginali e a volte pesi medi. La somma di questi pesi non è necessariamente uguale ad uno. Inoltre i mutamenti nelle accettazioni implicano l’impiego di termini di rettifica nelle formule. Gli usuali moltiplicatori sono rappresentati in grafici nei mutamenti dei tassi dell’imposta sul reddito e dell’imposta di consumo e sono discussi alcuni problemi dei moltiplicatori di un bilancio preventivo in pareggio. Alla fine sono dibattuti alcuni aspetti di una rappresentazione dinamica.

     

论社会保障分配功能与我国消费需求的关系

收入水平及收入分配是影响消费需求的重要因素之一。我国社会保障收入分配功能的弱化是制约消费需求增长和需求结构升级的主要瓶颈。完善社会保障制度、强化社会保障收入分配功能,对于改变我国社会收入分配结构、提高中低收入者收入水平,进而提升消费需求增长率和优化消费结构具有十分重要的现实意义。也是消除消费梗阻、支撑我国新一轮经济的快速增长和经济的持续快速协调发展战略举措。     

How social security policies and economic transformation affect poverty and inequality: Lessons for South Africa

This article examines how various characteristics of social and economic policy frameworks affect poverty and inequality levels in developing countries, principally in Botswana and Mauritius. The research findings suggest that poverty and inequality are lower in countries with generous and broad-based – rather than pro-poor – social security policies, and where social policies are complemented by economic policies promoting economic transformation rather than mere economic growth. While South Africa's challenges of combating poverty and inequality are shaped by its own historical context, the lessons from other countries offer the opportunity to reflect on the social consequences of various social and economic policy mixtures. In particular, it may be worth considering how to bridge the divide between the economically productive contributors to social security policies and the economically marginalised beneficiaries of such policies.     

A model of income distribution and economic development

Zusammenfassung Ein Modell über den Zusammenhang zwischen Einkommensverteilung und wirtschaftlicher Entwicklung. — Das in dem vorliegenden Aufsatz entwickelte Modell beweist, da\ die Einkommensverteilung eine wichtige Rolle bei der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung weniger entwickelter L?nder spielen kann. Die Einkommensverteilung ist nicht nur etwa von Interesse für vage Gerechtigkeitsvorstellungen, sondern sie kann selbst einen gr?\eren Beitrag zum Wachstumsproze\ leisten. Der gew?hnlich behauptete ?trade-off? zwischen Wachstum und Gerechtigkeit sollte nicht vorschnell akzeptiert werden. Es l?\t sich zeigen, da\ diese Wachstums-Gerechtigkeits-Alternative unter gewissen Umst?nden nicht besteht. Eine ungleiche Einkommensverteilung kann n?mlich einen Engpa\ für weiteres Wachstum bilden.

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Résumé Un modèle de la distribution du revenue et du développement économique. — Le modèle développé dans cet article démontre que la distribution du revenu peut jouer un r?le important dans le développement économique des pays moins développés. Il ne faut pas croire que la distribution du revenu n’est interessante qu’au point de vue de vagues idées de justice; elle peut, elle-même, contribuer considérablement au processus d’accroissement. Le ?trade-ofi? généralement constaté entre l’accroissement et la justice, ne devrait pas être accepté inconsidérément. On peut démontrer que, dans certaines conditions, l’alternative accroissement-justice n’existe pas. Une distribution inégale du revenu peut très bien former un défilé qui retarde l’accroissement.

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Resumen Un modelo de distribución de ingreso y desarrollo económico. — El modelio elaborado en el presente articulo demuestra que la distribución del ingreso puede desempenar un papel importante en el desarrollo económico de países menos avanzados. La distribución del ingreso no es solamente importante bajo el punto de vista de justicia social, sino también con respecto a la contribución que puede hacer para el crecimiento econ?mico. La afirmación generalizada de la existencia de un ?trade-off? entre crecimiento y justicia no se debería aceptar precipitadamente. Se puede demostrar, que la alternativa entre crecimiento y justicia en ciertas circunstancias no existe. Una distribución desigual del ingreso bien puede ser un cuello de botella para un major crecimiento.

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Riassunto Un modello della distribuzione dei redditi e di sviluppo economico. — Il modello sviluppato nel presente saggio dimostra che la distribuzione dei redditi può avere una parte importante nello sviluppo economico dei Paesi meno sviluppati. La distribuzione dei redditi non ha soltanto importanza per vaghe idee di giustizia, ma puó rendere, essa stessa, un maggior contributo per il processo di crescita. L’usuale affermato ?trade-off? tra crescita e giustizia non dovrebbe essere prematuramente accettato. Si può mostrare che questa alternativa di crescita e giustizia in certe circostanze non esiste. Un’ineguale distribuzione dei redditi può formare infatti una strozzatura per ulteriore crescita.

     

The impact of retirement on household consumption in Japan

Using monthly data from the Japanese Family Income and Expenditure Survey, we examine the impact of retirement on household consumption. We find little evidence of an immediate change in consumption at retirement, on average, in Japan. However, we find a decrease in consumption at retirement for low income households that is concentrated in food and work-related consumption. The availability of substantial retirement bonuses to a large share of Japanese retirees may help smooth consumption at retirement. We find that those households that are more likely to receive such bonuses experience a short-run consumption increase at retirement. However, among households that are less likely to receive a retirement bonus, we find that consumption decreases at retirement.     

Income volatility,household leverage,and consumption in Korea

Using the micro household data in Korea, we examine the effects of income volatility changes on households’ leverage and consumption. We found that households who faced increased income volatility lowered their leverage ratio. A one standard deviation increase in income volatility was associated with 1.3 ∼ 1.5 percentage point decrease in the leverage ratio. The effects of income volatility changes on households’ leverage choices varied with households’ borrowing constraints and other socioeconomic backgrounds. We also found that when faced with enlarged income uncertainty, households’ income coefficients on consumption were lowered. The income coefficient of average households was estimated to be around 0.16, while households with increased income volatility were around 0.12. In particular, similar to the relations in leverage ratio changes, consumptions among potentially borrowing-constrained households and those with ‘net-short’ position in real estate assets were more affected by increases in income volatility. This can be understood that households smoothed their consumption during the periods of increased income volatility, and this was shown in the smaller consumption elasticity on income. This can be attributed to the fact that faced with increased income volatility, households lower the risk exposure of their financial net wealth by lowering their leverage ratio.     

Investigating the linkages between industrial policies and M&A dynamics: Evidence from China

Mergers and acquisitions (M&As hereafter) have been widely examined in the economic and business literature under many perspectives. However, the industry-level view, specifically the relation between industrial policies and M&A waves at the sectoral level, has remained rather unexplored. This article contributes to fill this gap by empirically investigating the relation between selective industrial policies and M&A waves at the industry level in China. Referring to the four Five Year Plans covering the period 1996–2015, we explore whether being identified as an emerging sector in these plans generates positive or negative changes in the number of M&As. We reiterate the analysis according to the different types of M&As (vertical, horizontal or conglomerate) and the different natures of the acquirer (SOEs or private). Our results suggest that policies can differentially affect M&A waves according to the type of M&A. Moreover, while private firms are more responsive to both horizontal and vertical integration in emerging sectors, SOEs are more prone to engage in vertical M&As. We discuss the possible rationales behind the different behaviors. We also draw general policy implications on strategic industrial policy and market restructuring.     

Nonlinear income variance profiles and consumption inequality over the life cycle

In contrast to many other countries, consumption inequalities in Japan are not constant over household age but increase from around middle age—a fact first highlighted by Ohtake and Saito [Ohtake, F., Saito, M., 1998. Population aging and consumption inequality in Japan. Rev. Income Wealth 44, 361–381]. Given this information, we examine whether this phenomenon is consistent with the standard precautionary saving model developed by Carroll [Carroll, C.D., 1997. Buffer-stock savings and the life cycle/permanent income hypothesis. Quart. J. Econ. 62, 1–56]. Specifically, we investigate: (1) the degree of age dependence of idiosyncratic income risks; and (2) the importance of age dependence for the evolution of inequalities in consumption predicted by the household model of Carroll (1997). We find a strong age dependence of income risks, which creates a nonlinear age–variance profile of income, and the standard precautionary saving model is consistent with the observed consumption inequalities as long as we take the nonlinearity in age–variance profiles of income into account.     

Integrating the economic and the social. Policy and institutional change in local economic strategy

Since the mid-1990s policy “integration” has become an increasingly salient theme within central government and local government policy-making. In this paper we report survey findings tracing the recent emergence of explicitly “integrated” local economic and social strategies, and the evolving position of ostensibly social themes in local economic strategies. These highlight some of the more important policy and institutional changes that have characterised local economic strategy in the post-Thatcher era. Subsequently, in the light of this initial data we outline a number of possible directions for further research.