地区制度环境与跨境风险资本进入：社会嵌入机制研究

以1990—2020年风险资本投资事件为样本,考察跨境风险资本进入制度不完善地区的社会嵌入机制。结果发现：在制度不完善地区,跨境风险资本倾向通过与本土风险资本联合投资来嵌入本土社会网络。跨境风险资本借此获取联合伙伴的本土信息和资源,提高从本次投资成功退出的概率,并与网络中其他本土风险资本建立间接联系,未来可以从有直接或间接联系的本土风险资本那里得到交易机会。     

结构突变对实证估计方法选择的影响：以人民币汇率为例

本文在详细归纳结构突变的单位根检验方法基础上,以2002—2007年间人民币汇率为例探讨了结构突变对于模型估计方法选择的影响。采用结构突变的单位根检验方法得到的检验结果否定了不考虑结构突变的传统ADF检验结果,揭示出人民币兑日元汇率时间序列为结构突变的平稳序列。本文结论表明,是否考虑结构突变将会导致对估计方法作出截然不同的选择,不考虑结构突变可能会带来“伪协整”问题。     

The Effect of IFRS Adoption Conditional Upon the Level of Pre-adoption Divergence

Prior studies on whether or not International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adoption improves earnings quality have found mixed results. We note that some of the countries that have adopted IFRS had national accounting standards similar to IFRS prior to adopting IFRS, while others had national accounting standards divergent from IFRS. We examine the effects of IFRS adoption by taking into account the level of divergence prior to the adoption of IFRS. We find that countries experience a greater drop in earnings management when they have a higher level of divergence from IFRS prior to IFRS adoption. More specifically, high divergence countries with higher levels of enforcement benefit the most followed by high divergence countries with lower levels of enforcement. Lower divergence countries with higher levels of enforcement do not significantly benefit from IFRS adoption. Lower divergence countries with lower levels of enforcement do not benefit from IFRS adoption at all. Our results support the contention that countries with lower quality local accounting standards prior to IFRS adoption benefit more from IFRS adoption.     

Welfare‐increasing third‐degree price discrimination

When demand functions in different markets are derived from distributions of reservation prices that differ only in their means, conditions exist such that third‐degree price discrimination leads to greater total output and greater total welfare. Welfare is higher with discrimination than with a uniform price when demand functions are derived from logistic distributions with different means. Welfare and consumer surplus are higher with discrimination for demands derived from a distribution related to the Pareto. In general, whether discrimination increases total output depends on demand being more convex in markets in which prices fall with discrimination than in those in which prices rise.     

Earnings Quality Effect on Corporate Excess Cash Holdings and Their Marginal Value

By using panel data from Korea’s listed firms, we find that firms with poor earnings quality are more likely to accumulate excess cash holdings, perhaps in an attempt to buffer themselves from information asymmetry problems. We also find that firms with poor earnings quality are more likely to discount the marginal value of their excess cash holdings because their shareholders appear to question the reason for such cash policy changes from the agency theory perspective. Overall, our results suggest that information asymmetry and agency problems are likely to co-exist in firms with poor earnings quality.     

The information content of the term structure of risk-neutral skewness

We seek to reconcile the debate about the price effect of risk-neutral skewness (RNS) on stocks. We document positive predictability from short-term skewness, consistent with informed-trading demand, and negative predictability from long-term skewness, consistent with skewness preference. A term spread on RNS captures different information from long- and short-term contracts, resulting in stronger predictability. The quintile portfolio with the lowest spread outperforms that with highest spread by 14.64% annually. The term structure of RNS predicts earnings surprises and price crashes. We extract the slope factor from RNS term structure, estimate its risk premium, and explore its relation with several macroeconomic variables.     

企业所得税优惠政策研究

本文从免税收入、免征减征企业所得税和降低税率三个方面,对国债利息收入、权益性投资收益、非营利组织收入、农林牧渔业项目所得、国家重点扶持的公共基础设施项目投资经营所得、环境保护节能节水项目所得、技术转让所得以及小型微利企业、高新技术企业的企业所得税优惠政策进行了分析,提出了若干实施和完善企业所得税优惠政策的建议。     

Managerial overconfidence and corporate cash holdings: Evidence from primary and secondary data

The corporate finance literature argues that overconfident managers tend to hold less cash, and this leads to a significant deviation from optimal cash levels. We analyse the impact of executive overconfidence on the corporate cash holdings of listed Vietnamese firms. To quantify managerial overconfidence, a novel core measure used in our analyses is voice pitch, which is obtained from interviews with top-line managers. Other measures of managerial overconfidence are also used to support the results and confirm the validity of the voice pitch measure. Our empirical evidence, with economically significant results, reveals that higher levels of overconfidence amongst managers are associated with lower cash holdings. Surprisingly, the findings show that overconfident managers tend to be associated with a low level of deviation from optimal cash holding levels. In addition, our findings also provide evidence that managerial overconfidence can increase cash levels and deviations from target cash holdings for overinvesting firms.     

过度自信、风险厌恶与我国上市公司经理薪酬激励

经理风险厌恶会增加股东使用业绩薪酬激励的成本,然而通过对我国上市公司高管的经验研究发现,如果经理过度自信,则会减弱风险厌恶带来的负面影响,表现为其薪酬中的报酬业绩敏感度更高,且其与风险之间的负相关关系减弱。同时研究还发现,非系统风险所占总风险比重较大的公司,相比系统风险所占比重较大的公司,会给予过度自信的高管更高的报酬业绩敏感度,这意味着高管的过度自信主要源于其对公司非系统风险认知的偏差。     

Modelling long-run equilibrium exchange rate in Botswana

The paper estimates the equilibrium real exchange rate for Botswana. It also reviews the country’s exchange rate regimes. Botswana operated a fixed exchange – without adjustable pegs from 1966 to 1976; with adjustable pegs from 1976 to 1980; and with a currency basket from 1980 to date. Using the autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing procedure, the paper found terms of trade and trade openness to determine the equilibrium real exchange rate. The actual real exchange rate has deviated significantly from the equilibrium exchange rate. The estimated speed of adjustment is very slow, which calls for policies that could raise it in order to avoid excess misalignments.     

人民币境外存量考察:基于季度数据的协整分析和间接估计

本文根据现金需求的影响因素,构建了两个略有差异的现金需求实证模型,运用1992-2000年的季度数据,拟合出我国境内现金需求函数的表达方程,通过对比分析,选择拟合效果较好的模型来预测2001-2008年我国境内人民币需求量,通过扣除本地需求法估算出该段时期内境外人民币的存量。结果显示,2001-2008年间,人民币境外存量从100-300亿元规模开始波动上升,2006年开始呈现大幅增加的态势,达到甚至突破1000亿元;另外,人民币境外存量有较为剧烈的季节波动,这为央行制定货币政策带来一定困难。     

Valuation differences between quoted and unquoted companies- empirical evidence from the UK

This paper focuses upon differences in the valuation of UK quoted and unquoted companies. It draws on empirical evidence over the period from 1991 to 1997. It commences with an overview of the published literature. This suggests a broad spectrum of valuation statistics ranging from very minor discounts for non-listed companies relative to their quoted brethren, up to a discount as high as 40%. The empirical analysis uses PE ratios, derived from the publication Acquisitions Monthly, in respect of non-listed, private companies selling out in takeover deals. These are compared with average PE ratios for quoted companies in Britain. A raw statistic of approximately 40% was found as the discount for non-listed firms relative to quoted companies. However, this is dramatically different when corrected for size. For size varying from less than GBP 0.5 million to about GBP 55 million, the discount ranges, respectively, from 16% to 6% with an average of around 10%. Regression equations relating size and PE ratio are presented.     

House prices, non-fundamental components and interstate spillovers: The Australian experience

Using Australian capital city data from 1984Q3--2008Q2, this paper utilizes a dynamic present value model within a VAR framework to construct time series of house prices depicting what aggregate house prices should be given expectations of future real disposable income - the “fundamental price” - and continues by comparing capital city fundamental prices with actual prices. The extent to which revealed capital city “non-fundamental” components spillover from state to state, as well as their long-term impact is also investigated. Results provide evidence of periods of sustained deviations of house prices from values warranted by income for all state capitals with the greatest deviations arising in the NSW market and starting around 2000. In general NSW is relatively more susceptible to spillovers transmitted from other states while ACT and WA are most isolated from the rest of the country.     

Nonlinear pricing in an oligopoly market: the case of specialty coffee

Firms that use nonlinear pricing may distort product characteristics away from their efficient levels. This paper offers the first empirical study of this issue. Using data from a specialty coffee market, I estimate a structural utility model to compute consumers' benefits from changing products' sizes. I then compare the estimated benefits to cost data. Design distortions are relatively large for products not targeted to the highest‐demand consumers. Distortions decrease toward zero with drink size for products with the largest profit margins. These results support some of the central predictions from nonlinear pricing theory, including “no distortion at the top.”     

How managers become leaders. The seven seismic shifts of perspective and responsibility

Few managerial transitions are more difficult than making the move from leading a function to leading an entire enterprise for the first time. The scope and complexity of the job increase dramatically, in ways that can leave executives feeling overwhelmed and uncertain. It truly is different at the top. But how, exactly? Career transition expert Michael Watkins set out to explore that question in an extensive series of interviews with leadership mentors, HR professionals, and newly minted unit heads. What he found was that at this turning point, executives must navigate a tricky set of changes in their leadership focus and skills. Watkins calls these the seven seismic shifts. New enterprise leaders must move from being a specialist to a generalist; from analyzing data to integrating knowledge from multiple sources; and from implementing tactics to developing strategies. They also need to transform themselves from bricklayers into organizational architects; from problem solvers into agenda setters; and from warriors intent on beating the competition into diplomats who engage with a full range of stakeholders. Finally, leaders must move out from the wings and get used to living on center stage in the full spotlight. To make the transition, managers have to acquire new capabilities quickly. And though what got them to the top may no longer be enough, there are steps that they and their organizations can take to prepare them to succeed.     

Media constructions of risk: a case study of the Stainforth Beck incident

In October 2000 two schoolgirls were swept away from their party whilst ‘river walking’ in Stainforth Beck near Settle in North Yorkshire. The paper examines this incident with reference to media coverage of the events at the time and the subsequent reportage. The discussion contributes to the debate concerning the appropriateness of an agenda of broadening education. We argue from a position that supports the principle of breadth, particularly when such activities are part of adventure education with its propensity to engage with outdoor risk settings. Whilst lessons must be learnt from such a tragic incident, it is important that outdoor professionals continue to disseminate the positive potential of adventure in order to offset the negative messages concerning risk promoted by the media in general.     

The Origins of the German Corporation - Finance, Ownership and Control

The ownership of German corporations is quite different today from that of Anglo-American firms. How did this come about? To what extent is it attributable to regulation? A specially constructed data set on financing and ownership of German corporations from the end of the 19th century to the middle of the 20th century reveals that, as in the UK, there was a high degree of activity on German stock markets with firms issuing equity in preference to borrowing from banks, and insider and family ownership declining rapidly. However, unlike in the UK, other companies and banks emerged as the main holders of equity, with banks holding shares primarily as custodians of other investors rather than on their own account. The changing pattern of ownership concentration was therefore very different from that of the UK with regulation reinforcing the control that banks exercised on behalf of other investors.     

Impact of special economic zones on firm performance

The establishment of special economic zones (SEZs) is one of the critical policies to promote economic growth. However, the relationship between SEZs and firm performance is still unclear. Using China Industrial Enterprise Database (CIED) from 1998 to 2007, this paper investigates the influence of firm location on its performance mainly from two channels: selection effect and agglomeration effect. The results suggest that firms in SEZs have better performance on average than firms outside SEZs. One reason for the productivity effect is selecting firms with higher productivity to enter the zone and firms with lower productivity to exit the zone. Agglomeration is another critical channel, and the effects are heterogeneous. Both firms in the zones and firms outside the zones gain spillovers from the zones, with the former being larger than the latter. Firms gain larger agglomeration effects from a cluster of the same industry than across industries.     

The Interaction of Solvency with Liquidity and its Association with Bankruptcy Emergence

Prior research has shown that accounting information available prior to a bankruptcy is associated with the likelihood of bankruptcy. We show that additionally, the accounting information available prior to bankruptcy is associated with whether or not a firm will emerge from bankruptcy. We predict that firms that exhibit low solvency risk and high liquidity risk are most likely to emerge from bankruptcy. Firms that exhibit high solvency risk and high liquidity risk are predicted to be least likely to emerge from bankruptcy. Cross–sectionally, our results support these predictions, but our findings differ across large and small firms.     

Mergers in the bond rating industry: does rating provider matter?

I examine whether investors favour bond ratings from established global agencies by analyzing the market response to Standard and Poor’s (S&P) acquisition of the Canadian Bond Rating Service (CBRS). As a result of the acquisition, CBRS ratings were completely eliminated and replaced with ratings from S&P. While little reaction was apparent for bonds, the stocks of firms with CBRS ratings responded positively to the acquisition announcement. Small firms and those with little institutional ownership experienced the greatest benefit. The findings suggest that ratings from S&P may increase the exposure of foreign firms to international investors.