Assessing the Transmission of Monetary Policy Using Time‐varying Parameter Dynamic Factor Models*

This article extends the current literature which questions the stability of the monetary transmission mechanism, by proposing a factor‐augmented vector autoregressive (VAR) model with time‐varying coefficients and stochastic volatility. The VAR coefficients and error covariances may change gradually in every period or be subject to abrupt breaks. The model is applied to 143 post‐World War II quarterly variables fully describing the US economy. I show that both endogenous and exogenous shocks to the US economy resulted in the high inflation volatility during the 1970s and early 1980s. The time‐varying factor augmented VAR produces impulse responses of inflation which significantly reduce the price puzzle. Impulse responses of other indicators of the economy show that the most notable changes in the transmission of unanticipated monetary policy shocks occurred for gross domestic product, investment, exchange rates and money.     

Testing Steady‐State Restrictions of Linear Rational Expectations Models when Data are Highly Persistent*

Steady‐state restrictions are commonly imposed on highly persistent variables to achieve stationarity prior to confronting rational expectations models with data. However, the resulting steady‐state deviations are often surprisingly persistent indicating that some aspects of the underlying theory may be empirically problematic. This paper discusses how to formulate steady‐state restrictions in rational expectations models with latent forcing variables and test their validity using cointegration techniques. The approach is illustrated by testing steady‐state restrictions for alternative specifications of the New Keynesian model and shown to be able to discriminate between different assumptions on the sources of the permanent shocks.     

The Contribution and Intellectual Legacy of Ronald Coase (1910–2013)

Ronald Coase's work presents a continuing challenge to the established neoclassical paradigm. His incorporation of transactions cost into economic theory enables many questions of organisational structure to be addressed but also implies a world of continuing evolutionary change rather than static equilibrium. This article reviews some of Coase's most influential papers and considers their implications for the future of public policy and economic theory.     

The Urban Geography of Low‐income Housing: Cairo (1947–96) Exemplifies a Model

No one has documented the changing geography of low‐income settlements in any city in the developing world over the entire postwar period. The most plausible model of this changing geography, first outlined by John F.C. Turner, indicates the existence of a dual concentration of the poor: in central slums and in informal settlements at the periphery. This dual pattern is associated, respectively, with the filtering‐down of older housing and with owner‐construction of new dwellings, sometimes on illegally‐occupied land. Some writers have suggested that central slums deteriorate, while fringe settlements may be improved over time, thereby distinguishing slums of despair from those of hope. Analysis of the Egyptian census from 1947 to 1996 shows that this suggestion is borne out by the postwar experience of Cairo. Evidence on literacy indicates that central and fringe areas have both contained a high proportion of low‐income households, but that over half a century the relative status of the central areas has slowly declined. Although it has helped to shape the experience of millions, this long‐term trend has not been obvious to close observers of the local scene. Similar historical surveys should be undertaken of low‐income settlements in other cities in the developing world. Personne n’a étudié la géographie évolutive des logements à faibles revenus dans quelque ville que ce soit du monde en développement durant tout l’après‐guerre. Le modèle le plus plausible de ce changement, esquisséà l’origine par John F.C. Turner, définit l’existence de deux concentrations de pauvres: dans les taudis du centre et dans des implantations informelles à la périphérie. Ce modèle dual est lié respectivement à un déclassement de l’habitat ancien et à la construction de nouvelles habitations par les propriétaires, parfois sur un terrain occupé illégalement. D’après certains auteurs, les quartiers centraux des pauvres se détériorent tandis que les installations périphériques sont susceptibles de s’améliorer avec le temps, établissant ainsi une distinction entre les taudis du désespoir et ceux de l’espoir. Une analyse du recensement égyptien de 1947 à 1996 confirme cette idée au vu de l’expérience du Caire depuis la guerre. Des données sur l’alphabétisation montrent que les zones centrales et périphériques ont abrité une forte proportion de ménages à faible revenu mais que, en un demi‐siècle, la condition sociale des quartiers du centre a connu un relatif déclin. Même si elle a influé sur l’expérience de millions de gens, cette tendance à long terme a échappéà des observateurs directs de la scène locale. Il conviendrait donc d’entreprendre des études historiques similaires dans les quartiers à bas revenus d’autres grandes villes du monde en développement.     

Measuring Financial Contagion Using Time‐Aligned Data: The Importance of the Speed of Transmission of Shocks*

This paper presents a new empirical approach to address the problem of trading time differences between markets in studies of financial contagion. In contrast to end‐of‐business‐day data common to most contagion studies, we employ price observations, which are exactly aligned in time to correct for time‐zone and end‐of‐business‐day differences between markets. Additionally, we allow for time lags between price observations in order to test the assumption that the shock is not immediately transmitted from one market to the other. Our analysis of the financial turmoil surrounding the Asian crisis reveals that such corrections have an important bearing on the evidence for contagion, independent of the methodology employed. Using a correlation‐based test, we find more contagion the faster we assume the shock to be transmitted.     

The Credibility of Hong Kong's Currency Board System: Looking Through the Prism of MS‐VAR Models with Time‐Varying Transition Probabilities

This paper employs a Markov regime‐switching VAR model to describe and analyse the time‐varying credibility of Hong Kong's currency board system. The endogenously estimated discrete regime shifts are made dependent on macroeconomic fundamentals. This enables us to determine which changes in macroeconomic variables can trigger switches between the low and high credibility regimes. We carry out extensive testing to search for the most appropriate specification of the Markov regime‐switching model. We find strong evidence of regime switching behaviour that portrays the time‐varying nature of credibility in the historical data.     

Mandated Recognition of Employee Stock Option Expense – The Case of Canada

On December 18, 2003 the Accounting Standards Board of Canada announced that all firms registered in Canada would be required to expense stock options‐based compensation effective January 1, 2004. While a few firms had voluntarily opted to expense stock options prior to this date, the vast majority of firms had not. This study investigates the market reaction to this announcement by listed firms in the Toronto Stock Exchange that continued to disclose option expense rather than report it in the financial statement. We find no average market reaction by our sample firms affected by this mandate around the announcement date, but a significantly negative market reaction during the 5‐day window around the issuance date of the exposure draft. However, in cross‐sectional tests around the mandated expense announcement date, we find a significant negative relationship between the cumulative abnormal returns and the Black–Scholes value (and number) of options outstanding and of options granted the previous year. These results suggest that the magnitude of the market reaction to the mandated expense announcement is related to the firm's usage of options. Our results provide further evidence that stock prices may not fully impound information disclosed in footnotes.     

The Role of Corporate Sustainability in a Low‐Cost Business Model – A Case Study in the Scandinavian Fashion Industry

This multi‐level case study illustrates how corporate sustainability contributes to the low‐cost business model of a Scandinavian fashion company. Contrary to parts of the extant literature, we do not find that corporate sustainability directly adds measurable value (e.g. a better brand image); neither does it exert coercive control over critical supplier relationships. However, corporate sustainability minimizes the downside risk of the business model. It does so by (1) creating implicit contracts that reach beyond traditional ‘shareholder value’, (2) transferring risk to suppliers and (3) improving leadership by motivating management and employees, and by directing their attention to critical issues. For companies, we offer the insight that corporate sustainability is a necessary complement to shareholder value, even if the relationship is not obvious at first sight. We also suggest that concerted actions of companies or a positive connotation of certification create effective control over suppliers. As to public policy, we conclude that regulators could introduce mandatory disclosure of suppliers to facilitate controls through stakeholders, or alternatively an industry‐wide comply‐or‐explain code of conduct. We also address how regulators can take direct actions against countries with unsustainable labor policies. Last, we suggest future research topics, e.g. expanding the notion of a business model by interpreting ‘adding value’ as prevention of losses. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.     

Privileged Accumulation Spaces and Restrictions on Development of State‐Business Relations in Argentina (1966–1989)

The aim of this work is to explain how the state‐business relation has influenced economic development in Argentina. I will make a historical and systemic analysis of the Argentinian case to illustrate how and why state‐business relations supporting privileged accumulation spaces (PAS) increased development restrictions from 1966 to 1989. During this period, successive governments shared a common view about the central role the state had to perform for industrialization, especially by supporting the growth of big domestic industrial companies. This view would only radically change in 1989, when neoliberal structural reforms were implemented. To support this hypothesis, I suggest a methodological strategy that combines several techniques and sources in order to analyze the evolution of three complex variables and their multiple relations: state economic intervention, business behavior, and performance by large corporations.     

Strategic Moves and Organizational Survival in Turbulent Environments: The Case of Spanish Banks (1983–97)*

abstract The main purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of ‘strategic moves’ (or strategic change) on the likelihood of organizational survival in a population of firms which has undergone radical transformations in its environment. To this end, we propose and test two competitive hypotheses which are the result of two other theoretical perspectives about the consequences of strategic change: the adaptation view (classic strategic management and dynamic capabilities) and the ecological approach. While from the former, in general, it is assumed that strategic change has a positive effect on the likelihood of organizational survival, from the ecological approach, it is frequently argued that attempts at reorganization in general and strategic change in particular tend to be associated with an increase in the likelihood of organizational extinction. The sample used to test the two proposed hypotheses is the Spanish bank population over the period 1983–97. The results confirm the positive and significant effect of strategic moves (or strategic change) on the likelihood of organizational survival, in line with the conclusions of the adaptive perspective and other empirical research carried out in different settings. This paper introduces two important methodological innovations: (a) the definition and measurement of ‘strategic moves’ (or strategic change) by using a new cluster algorithm, the MCLUST; and (b) the control of the non‐observable heterogeneity using panel data models for ‘probit’ regression.     

Regime shifts in stock–flow I(2)–I(1) systems: the case of US fiscal sustainability

In the last two decades, fiscal sustainability has been tested through the use of non‐stationary time series analysis. Two different approximations can be found in the literature: first, a univariate approach that has focused on the stochastic properties of the stock of debt and, second, a multivariate one that has focused on the long‐run properties of the flows of expenditures and revenues, i.e., in the stochastic properties of the deficit. In this paper we unify these approaches considering the stock–flow system that fiscal variables configure. Our approach involves working in an I(2) stochastic processes framework. Given the possibility of the existence of regime shifts in the sustainability of US deficit that the literature has pointed out, we develop a new statistic that can be applied to test several types of I(2) cointegration and multicointegration relationships allowing for regime shifts. To test for these kinds of changing long‐run relationships we propose the use of a residual‐based Dickey–Fuller class of statistic that accounts for one structural break. We show that consistent estimates of the break fraction can be obtained through the minimization of the sum of squared residuals when there is I(2) cointegration. The finite sample performance of the proposed statistic is investigated by Monte Carlo simulations. The econometric methodology is applied to assess whether the US fiscal deficit and debt are sustainable. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.