Financial Intermediaries,Credit Shocks and Business Cycles

We document the cyclical properties of aggregate balance sheet variables of the US commercial banks: (i) Bank credits and deposits are less volatile than output, while net worth and leverage ratio are several times more volatile, (ii) bank credits and net worth are procyclical, while deposits, leverage ratio and loan spread are countercyclical. We then present a real business cycle model with a financial sector to investigate how the dynamics of macroeconomic aggregates and balance sheet variables of the US banks are influenced by empirically disciplined shocks to bank net worth. Both calibrated and estimated versions of the model show that these financial shocks are important not only for explaining the dynamics of financial flows but also for the dynamics of macroeconomic variables. We find that the recent deterioration in aggregate net worth of the US banking sector contributed significantly to the 2007–09 recession.     

物流金融业务风险评价研究

随着物流金融的发展,物流企业参与物流金融业务过程中面临的风险也日益显现。论文主要分析了物流金融业务模式,并且在此基础上对其存在的风险进行分析,建立风险评价模型,应用定量分析法对数据进行处理和分析,并对物流金融的风险防控提出建议。     

商业银行供应链金融业务风险评估

将群决策理论与三角模糊数应用到商业银行供应链金融业务风险评价问题中,从分析风险评价指标体系着手,提出基于三角模糊数和群决策方法的商业银行度量供应链金融业务风险的模糊群决策评价模型,并举例验证模型的适用性。     

商业银行个人金融业务的风险分析

文章对商业银行个人金融业务面临的风险及风险控制机制进行了研究。我国商业银行个人金融业务包括负债业务、资产业务和中间业务,其中资产业务中的消费信贷面临一系列的风险和制约因素。针对这些风险和制约因素,文章提出了相应的风险控制对策。     

物流金融业务风险评价研究

建立了物流金融业务风险评价指标体系,使用模糊层次分析法(FAHP)进行风险评价.在传统的模型评价分析方法基础上,使用改进的AHP方法确定权值,通过专家对某物流金融业务进行打分得到关系矩阵.最后计算此业务的优良程度,并分析其风险的大小.     

物流金融业务风险评估体系及模糊综合评价

构建物流金融业务风险评估指标体系;运用因素分析法、专家打分法以及三角模糊数计算各指标的权重及层次总排序值;然后计算物流金融业务方案的风险模糊综合评估值;最后通过评估案例进行说明。     

中国省份产业经济周期的经验研究——基于贝叶斯潜在多动态因子模型的分析

本文利用基于吉本斯抽样估算的贝叶斯潜在多动态因子模型,估算出中国改革开放以来三次产业实际产出波动的全国、地区和省份动态因子,发现全国动态因子和区域动态因子较好得刻画了中国宏观经济波动的基本特征和基本区域经济事实。方差分解的结果表明,全国动态因子是省份第二产业实际产出波动最重要的驱动力,异质性成分是省份第一、第三产业实际产出波动的主要驱动力,区域动态因子影响力弱,省份动态因子对第一、第三产业有一定的影响。不同类型动态因子对各产业影响程度的省份差异在一定程度上和区域以及省份特征相关。     

经济周期的制度特征与中国经济的复苏

1978年以来,中国经济已经运行了3个周期.最近一轮经济周期的波峰年是2007年,从2008年开始,中国经济掉头向下,进入了新一轮的收缩阶段.本轮经济周期的收缩期会持续多久?经济复苏需要具备什么条件?怎样从经济周期运行规律的角度把握未来宏观经济的走势,并对宏观经济运行进行正确的政策调控?只有深入理解经济周期的制度原因和形成机制,才有可能得到正确的答案.     

公司治理、财政补贴与企业预算松弛

本文选择2011-2017年沪深两市主板民营上市企业为研究对象,重点研究了财政补贴和公司治理对预算松弛的影响,并进一步分析了公司治理在财政补贴与预算松弛关系中的作用,研究发现:财政补贴与预算松弛之间显著负相关;公司治理水平越高,预算松弛程度越低;公司治理显著增强了财政补贴与预算松弛之间的相关性。     

新技术、企业组织变革与财务管理

新技术的发展促进了经济、政治、社会等宏观领域的发展,微观企业组织也深受其影响,作为企业管理的重要组成部分的财务管理,将在新技术的潮流中发生根本性的变革。新技术虚拟化、场景化、网络化、集成化、链接化、实时化、动态化的特征,将使企业的组织结构从以实体为基础的组织形态向以信息为基础的组织形态进行转变,进而使财务管理的主体、客体、目标、体制、对象、价值创造方式和信息发生相应转变。本文深刻分析了企业组织在新技术环境下的巨大变革和财务管理的根本变化,为财务管理的重新定位提供了相应的经验和启示。     

机会主义倾向、经营风险与审计质量

以行为经济学"前景理论"分析审计行为中存在的机会主义倾向对于审计意见的作用机制,采用深交所数据进行实证检验后发现,经营风险越小的上市公司越容易获得清洁的审计意见.原本应该反映上市公司财务信息质量的审计意见似乎成了财务业绩评价的标准,这说明审计行为中存在着机会主义倾向.在方法上引入行为经济学的基本理论可以拓展审计研究的思路,并在理论上进一步升华我们对于审计行为的认识.     

Perceived Differences: Chinese and Russian Farmers on Business,Law, Management,and Environment

The People's Republic of China has been following a strategy for several decades to encourage its enterprises to invest overseas. Since the liberalization of the Sino-Soviet border in the 1990s, Chinese farmers have been actively engaged in the economy of the Russian Far East (RFE). This article examines Chinese and Russian public relations messages broadcast by media about Chinese-Russian agricultural cooperation that use different arguments, methods of reasoning, and points of view. There is a clash of different national management methods. Legislation applying to Chinese working in Russia has been erratic and unstable, and that makes cooperation more challenging. The concepts of environmental protection and obedience to the law are understood differently by Russians and by Chinese. Cross-cultural management differences affect the way people on both sides interpret institutions, interactions, and the ability to trust third parties. There are different values and priorities expressed by Russians and by Chinese when it comes to development of rural areas in the RFE.     

浅析金融租赁业务的发展

自改革开放后,我国第一家金融租赁公司诞生以来,金融租赁行业经历了蓬勃发展期,也经历了萧条期。随着新的《金融租赁公司管理办法》的实施,会为金融租赁行业带来哪些新契机呢?本文结合我国金融租赁公司的现状,以及对金融租赁公司特有的业务优势的分析,认为本市场日益繁荣的大环境下,金融租赁行业面临着巨大的历史性发展机遇。     

滤波方法提取周期信息的比较研究

了解经济波动的典型事实是经济周期建模分析的前提,然而经济波动的典型事实对于建模过程中采用的滤波退势方法可能是敏感的。本文以中国主要宏观经济季度数据为研究对象,结合Lomb周期分解方法分析了5种常用滤波在提取周期信息方面的特点和经济周期典型事实对滤波退势方法的敏感性。结果显示变量的交叉相关性对于滤波方法的选择敏感,相对波动性对于滤波方法的选择不敏感,数据季节调整配合HP滤波目前仍是较好的退势方法。     

Measuring Synchronization and Convergence of Business Cycles for the Euro area,UK and US*

This paper investigates business cycle relations among different economies in the Euro area. Cyclical dynamics are explicitly modelled as part of a time series model. We introduce mechanisms that allow for increasing or diminishing phase shifts and for time‐varying association patterns in different cycles. Standard Kalman filter techniques are used to estimate the parameters simultaneously by maximum likelihood. The empirical illustrations are based on gross domestic product (GDP) series of seven European countries that are compared with the GDP series of the Euro area and that of the US. The original integrated time series are band‐pass filtered. We find that there is an increasing resemblance between the business cycle fluctuations of the European countries analysed and those of the Euro area, although with varying patterns.     

Globalization vs. Europeanization: A Business Cycles Race*

This paper examines the relative cyclical affiliation in six industrialized economies. While the broad conclusions are consistent with the existing literature, the proposed empirical framework is not based on correlations and permits the analysis of relative groupwise synchronization under very few assumptions. The results allow us to conclude that an English‐speaking club (Canada, UK, USA) is emerging in the last decades, whereas explicit and formal commitments seem to have had a relatively weaker power in determining Euro‐zone (France, Germany, Italy) business cycle comovements. Altogether, the business cycle race is a cause for concern as regards the entry of the UK into the Euro‐zone.     

财务报告舞弊行政处罚与可感知审计质量

以2001年至2008年间非金融类、非外资类正常交易A股公司为研究样本,考察财务报告舞弊行政处罚是否传递了可感知审计质量信息,实证研究结果表明:投资者总体上并不认可财务报告舞弊行政处罚传递了可感知审计质量信息,仅当投资者观察到反映坏消息的审计意见(如审计师出具非标审计意见、审计意见未改善等)和反映审计师声誉信息(如审计师受到行政处罚)的情况下,投资者才认为财务报告舞弊行政处罚传递了可感知审计质量信息。