沪深300指数期货与国内外股指期货市场间的信息传递效应

本文运用2010年4月-2011年10月有关股指期货的价格数据,利用VAR模型和基于t分布的双变量GARCH模型,研究了沪深300指数期货与恒生指数期货和SP500指数期货市场间的信息传递效应。研究结果表明:沪深300指数期货与恒生指数期货间存在长期的均衡关系,而与SP500指数期货间不存在长期的均衡关系;恒生指数期货和SP500指数期货可以引导沪深300指数期货,反之则没有Granger引导关系;沪深300指数期货对来自SP500指数期货冲击的响应最为迅速,对来自恒生指数期货冲击的响应幅度最大,而这两个股指期货市场对沪深300指数期货冲击的响应较小;恒生指数期货和SP500指数期货对沪深300指数期货市场均有显著的波动溢出效应,反之则没有。这些研究结果表明,目前我国股指期货市场对国际期货市场的影响较小,运行效率还需要进一步提高。     

Garch模型族在上海股市风险计量中的应用

BELLERSLEV在1986年提出了GARCH模型,该模型反映了经济变量之间的特殊的不确定形式:方差随时间变化而变化,因而在金融市场的预测和风险管理方面有着重要的应用。以上证指数的收益作为研究对象,运用GARCH-N模型、GARCH-T模型和GARCH-GED模型分析上海股市日收益率的条件异方差性,计算出日VaR值,结果表明GARCH模型对于我国的股市风险管理有较好效果。     

Price transmission and volatility spillovers in Asian rice markets: Evidence from MGARCH and panel GARCH models

ABSTRACT

This article examines world rice price transmission and volatility spillovers across six major Asian rice markets over the period 2005-13. In addition to the conventional GARCH models, we use a panel GARCH framework to estimate the spillover effects along with the consideration of heterogeneity and interdependence among countries. Empirical results suggest that changes in the world rice price affected not only the price levels of domestic rice markets but also their conditional variances. Moreover, interdependence across rice markets contributed to a strong spillover of a price shock in one country to another within the region.     

我国期货市场的波动性与有效性--基于三大交易市场的实证分析

通过对中国三大期货市场的铜、黄豆和小麦三种主要期货品种收益率的分布与波动性的实证分析 ,论证了其时间序列存在ARCH效应 ;运用GARCH模型对这三种期货品种进行了拟合分析和统计检验 ,检验结果表明这三个期货品种的波动性均具有很高的持续性 ,但大连黄豆的波动持续性弱于上海铜和郑州小麦 ,其波动性受各种外部冲击的影响较大 ;通过GARCH( 1 ,1 )的市场有效性检验 ,论证了中国期货市场尚未达到弱式有效 ,市场风险较大。     

上证50指数收益率特征及其波动性分析

研究国内非综合指数即成份指数(上证50指数)的收益率特征及其波动性,可以估计得出对指数风险收益具有较好预测作用的自回归———GARCH(1,1)-M模型,并实证分析指数收益的风险特性、稳定性、波动性等特征,这对当前探讨上证50指数相关指数衍生品推出及其投资分析均具有重要意义。     

股市收益和波动性长期记忆的国际比较——基于V/S的经验证据

现有研究运用经典和修正R/S分析探讨我国股票市场的长期记忆效应。本文运用更为稳健的V/S分析,对比研究上证股市和另外7个国家和地区的股票市场,分别诊断各股市日收益和周收益、及三种典型度量的收益波动的长期记忆效应。研究表明:股市日收益和周收益序列都不存在显著的长期记忆;三种典型度量的收益波动普遍存在显著的长期记忆;日收益波动比周收益波动的长期记忆更显著。     

The capital market spillover effect of product market advertising: Evidence from stock price synchronicity

We analyze whether product market advertising has a spillover effect on stock price synchronicity by transmitting firm-specific information to the capital market and attracting more investor attention. Using a sample of Chinese listed firms from 2009 to 2017, we find that firms with greater advertising expenditures have lower stock price synchronicity. The results are robust after we address endogeneity concerns. In accord with our hypothesis that product market advertising increases the amount of firm-level information capitalized into stock prices through the information channel, we find that the impact of advertising on synchronicity is more pronounced for firms with a higher degree of information asymmetry and firms in the consumer-product industry. Further tests show that product market advertising enhances the ability of current period returns to reflect future earnings, and thus rules out that the negative relationship between advertising and synchronicity is driven by noise trading. Our results imply that product market advertising plays an informative role and improves information efficiency in a capital market.     

我国股票市场收益、交易量、波动性动态关系的实证分析

本文对我国股票市场上证指数和深圳成指的收益、交易量、波动性之间的动态关系进行了实证研究,研究结果表明:收益和绝对收益与交易量之间均存在正相关关系;收益与交易量以及绝对收益与交易量之间存在双向Granger因果关系(线性或非线性);深圳成指收益的波动方差对收益具有正向作用,而上证指数收益的波动方差对收益没有直接的影响;上证指数和深圳成指的成交量对股指收益的波动方差不具有解释作用.     

国际原油价格波动是否增加了国内CPI通胀率的不确定性?

本文选取2001年1月至2011年10月的月度统计数据,基于二阶矩意义的Granger因果检验方法,在多元GARCH模型框架下,运用残差向量的方差-协方差矩阵所包含的信息,构建非对称的BEKK模型,对国际油价波动与国内消费者价格指数(CPI)通胀率不确定性的因果关系进行了检验。结论表明,国际油价波动会向国内CPI输出不确定性因素,且短期油价上涨更容易增加国内CPI的不确定性;但国内CPI变动无法向国际油价输出不确定性。     

股权质押比例限制与股票市场稳定——基于“质押新规”的自然实验

股权质押给股票市场带来较大风险,那么限制股权质押比例能否起到稳定股票市场的作用呢?本文基于"质押新规"这一自然实验,采用倾向得分匹配法和双重差分模型,从股票收益率、波动率、停牌交易日占比和非流动性四个方面研究股权质押比例限制对股票市场的影响,从公司治理和股东持股角度进行了机制分析,并进一步考察了质押比例限制对低质押比例企业造成的溢出影响。研究发现,短期看,设定质押比例上限对个股的收益率和流动性存在负向冲击,对个股的波动率存在正向冲击,股权质押比例限制总体上降低了股票市场稳定性。"质押新规"对控制权转移风险较大的企业的个股收益率产生了负向冲击,对控制权转移风险较小的企业的个股非流动性存在正向冲击;尽管"质押新规"针对的是高质押比例企业,但对低质押比例企业也产生了冲击。"质押新规"的负向冲击主要通过盈余管理和股东持股比例变动向市场传递。因此,应对股权质押风险,需要关注企业的盈余管理等经营状况和股东持股比例的变动,并防范溢出效应造成的风险传染。     

Asymmetrical reaction to US stock-return news: evidence from major stock markets based on a double-threshold model

This paper examines the hypothesis that both stock returns and volatility are asymmetrical functions of past information from the US market. By employing a double-threshold GARCH model to investigate six major index-return series, we find strong evidence supporting the asymmetrical hypothesis of stock returns. Specifically, negative news from the US market will cause a larger decline in a national stock return than an equal magnitude of good news. This holds true for the volatility series. The variance appears to be more volatile when bad news impacts the market than when good news does.     

The impact of reporting frequency on the information quality of share price: evidence from Chinese state-owned enterprises

As a major global exchange, the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong (SEHK) only requires semi-annual reporting whereas other major exchanges including the ones in Chinese mainland require quarterly reporting. We argue against the traditional view that higher reporting frequency is necessarily more beneficial. The decision on reporting frequency depends on how the information is being processed by the recipient traders and the results are not obvious. Using a sample of Chinese companies duallisted in both China A share market and SEHK (AH shares) as the experimental group and mainland’s companies listed on SEHK (H shares) only as the control group, we apply the difference-in-difference (DID) method to investigate the impacts of reporting frequency on stock information quality. The results suggest that after China A share market require quarterly financial reporting for all listed companies in 2002, the information asymmetry of the H tranche of AH stocks increases. Different from prior studies, the results suggest a negative association between stock information quality and financial reporting frequency. We argue that the increased information asymmetry in the H tranche is caused by the noise spilled over from the A tranche. We conduct multivariable GARCH tests and find evidence supporting this conjecture.     

Dollarization,Inflation Targeting,and Inflationary Dynamics in Ghana

ABSTRACT

The impact of dollarization on domestic economic performance, and the welfare implications of high inflation in an inflation targeting environment, have remained a matter of much concern for policymakers in recent years. This study investigates the effects of dollarization on inflation and inflation uncertainty in Ghana for the period January 1990 to December 2017. We apply the exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity model together with impulse response and Granger causality tests to explore how dollarization affects the behavior of inflation for the pre-inflation targeting period (January 1990 – May 2007) and post-inflation targeting period (June 2007 – December 2017). The results indicate that dollarization has not played a significant role in the volatility of inflation in Ghana. Also, inflation Granger causes dollarization in both the pre- and post-inflation targeting regimes. Finally, there is a bidirectional causal relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty following the adoption of inflation targeting monetary policy. We conclude that, although inflation targeting has not presented a significant impact on inflation volatility, it has affected the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in Ghana. The dynamics of inflation volatility and asymmetries present crucial implications which are discussed to guide policymaking.     

The Hong Kong Equity Market and an Institutional Framework for Asset Pricing

Given the potential implications of market structure for asset pricing, this paper examines the structural and institutional features of the Hong Kong equity market and their relevance to explaining market behaviour. It was found that the Hong Kong market appears less perfect and hence less efficient than their counterparts in the more developed economies, such as the USA and the UK, so that market disequilibrium and asset mispricing might have occurred. This paper adds value to the literature as the findings provide an institutional framework for analysing and explaining the results from empirical asset pricing work, past and future, on the Hong Kong market. This has far-reaching implications for financial decisions.     

On the Causes and Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Economic Growth: Evidence from Ghana

What drives exchange rate volatility, and what are the effects of fluctuations in the exchange rate on economic growth in Ghana? These questions are the subject matter of this study. The results showed that while shocks to the exchange rate are mean reverting, misalignments tend to correct very sluggishly, with painful consequences in the short run as economic agents recalibrate their consumption and investment choices. About three quarters of shocks to the real exchange rate are self-driven, and the remaining one quarter or so is attributed to factors such as government expenditure and money supply growth, terms of trade and output shocks. Excessive volatility is found to be detrimental to economic growth; however, this is only up to a point as growth-enhancing effect can also emanate from innovation, and more efficient resource allocation.     

Modelling spillovers between stock market and FX market: evidence for Nigeria

Abstract

The need to capture the foreign exchange (FX) and stock markets nexus in Nigeria is underscored by the rapidly expanding financial markets integration due to trade and financial liberalization policies which seem to have enhanced the inflow of capital as well as accelerated investment/business interactions. Using variants of the VARMA-AMGARCH model of McAleer, Hoti, and Chan (2009), we find that volatility persistence in the stock market is accentuated by bad news in the market and moderated by good news in the FX market. Finally, we establish that ignoring the asymmetric effects may exaggerate the spillover results.     

Second moments in speculative attack models: panel evidence

The paper tests two popular asset based models of speculative attacks and in particular, their emphasis on the second moments of monetary aggregates. Analyzing monthly panels of appropriate countries in three regions, it finds evidence for the importance of money/reserve ratios predicted by both models, as well as the variance of the ratio of M2 to reserves.     

The Effect of Sport Sponsorship Programs of Various Sport Events on Stock Price Behavior During a Sport Event

This paper examines sporting event's spillover effect to investor's behavior through event study analysis using the GARCH (p,q) model, focusing on the stock price effects of a sport sponsorship program during and after a sporting event. Studying stock price behavior during a sporting event is attempted for the first time in the marketing and sponsorship literature. First, we provide some summary points from the review of 40 research works and interpretive claims, based on a conceptual and theoretical framework. Second, we consider daily stock returns of 28 listed companies that have sponsored 15 major sports events during the period 2000–2009, in order to examine the effect of major sporting events on sponsors’ stock returns and volatility. The three research hypotheses are supported. Research results show that stock returns and volatility changed significantly during and after the sporting event compared to pre-event period. Results show that stock price effects caused by sports events’ sponsorship programs are firm-specific, as well as sporting event-specific. The findings of this study are of high value for promotion managers as it allows them to become more critically aware of the practical wisdom of sporting events.     

证券市场中的道德风险控制机制研究

证券市场中的道德风险主要来源于证券投资者、证券发行者、证券公司、证券监管者、相关机构的不道德行为。形成道德风险的原因主要是人的本能驱动、信息差异、机会吸引等。证券市场中的道德风险事故会造成一系列不利的后果。为了完善证券市场中的道德风险控制机制,应改进证券发行核准制,改进重要人员聘任制度,建立重要人员财产申报制度、出国监控制度和大额交易限期锁仓制度,建立证券专业法庭,完善证券市场赔偿制度和证券市场监管制度。     

What Drives European Football Clubs’ Stock Returns and Volatility?

The article studies the main determinants of European football clubs’ stock returns and volatility. A panel-data analysis of a sample of 24 European football clubs was conducted to test the influence of several variables, based on a matrix of internal/external and real/financial dimensions, on both stock returns and their volatility. The results show that clubs’ stock returns are influenced by the real and financial context and by a set of internal variables such as profit considered as a reflection of accounting discipline, capitalization as an indicator of size and stadium attendance as a proxy indicator of reputation. The volatility of stock returns seems particularly vulnerable to the overall instability on stock markets and dependent on clubs’ profit and net players’ transfers and, to a lesser extent, on sporting outcomes.