Patterns and determinants of intra-industry trade in Asia

Intra-industry trade (IIT) has gained in importance across Asia as a result of the rapid growth of Asian economies and their key role in the international fragmentation of production. This paper examines the level of IIT for 22 countries in East, Southeast, South, and Central Asia in 2003. IIT is measured as a multilateral trade-weighted index and is reported for ten different categories of goods in the primary and secondary sectors. In addition, the determinants of IIT are investigated using a Tobit regression model. The results indicate that ASEAN and the high-income countries in East Asia exhibit the highest levels of IIT, followed closely by China and India. R&D spending, openness, and a higher share of manufactured exports were found to promote IIT, while geographical distance and the difference in economic size had an adverse effect, especially for manufactured goods. The ASEAN free trade area was most prominently associated with IIT across all SITC categories. Central and South Asian regional trade agreements had a positive influence on IIT in primary products.     

Social Transfer Benefits and Retirement Decisions: Evidence from South Africa

Population aging poses a new challenge to the fiscal sustainability of social security programs around the globe. As life expectancy increases, among other reasons, many governments in developed countries have begun to reform key features of their programs, such as increasing the eligibility age for access to social benefits. However, as in the case of South Africa, some opt to decrease the eligibility age for access to such pension benefits. The South African old age pension, which is one of the most expansive cash transfers in developing countries, puts a significant monthly cash transfer in the hands of its recipients. This cash transfer is conditioned on age and a means test that is very generous to most South Africans. In this paper, we seek to understand the impact of such an increase in non‐labour income on the labour force participation of older men by exploiting a phased‐in reduction in pension eligibility age. We estimate that, at the median predicted market wage, pension age‐eligibility reduces the probability of labour force participation by approximately 9.85% points for single males and 15.45% points for married males.     

浅析“东盟方式”

东盟自成立以来,经过不断的发展,成为在东亚地区一体化程度最高的组织。"东盟方式"是对东南亚国家之间合作方式的一个总结,它为东盟的发展和壮大做出了巨大贡献。对它进行研究对于构建一种普适性的地区一体化理论具有重要意义,本文在考察东盟历史发展的基础上,对"东盟方式"的内涵、形成原因、主要特征及其意义做一个系统分析。     

Financing investment in East Asia: Regional or global savings?

This paper investigates the extent to which domestic investment in East Asian countries is financed by domestic, (East Asian) regional and global savings in order to infer the relative importance of regional vs. global capital markets in East Asia. Panel regression results show that regional saving in East Asia plays a much more important role than global saving in financing investment in the region. The results suggest that global capital flows, despite its huge volume in East Asia, does not contribute to proper investment financing. The results also show that Japanese saving has significant effects on regional investment but Chinese saving does not.     

International Labour Migration in East Asia: trends, patterns and policy issues

This paper examines emerging patterns of labour migration in East Asia and related policy issues from the perspective of labour-importing countries. Following a survey of the characteristics of labour flows stemming from, but more importantly occurring within, the region, it probes inter-country differences, both in the timing of the entry of migrant workers and the degree of dependency on migrant labour in the context of rapid economic growth and labour market change. There is clear evidence that labour migration is now a structural feature of the economic landscape in these countries. The policy challenge is to design market-based systems for making the new reliance on labour inflows consistent with changing domestic labour market conditions and the priorities of national development policy, while minimising social resentment and adverse implications for political relations with neighbouring labour-sending countries.     

Globalization, industrialization and urbanization in Pre-World War II Southeast Asia

This article uses new data to analyze the impact on Southeast Asian urbanization of globalization and industrialization in the world economy's core countries between the 1870s and World War II. Dramatic falls in transport costs and free trade, enforced, if necessary, by colonial rule, combined to open vast frontier areas throughout Southeast Asia to global commerce and create a handful of large urban centres. These cities, through linking Southeast Asian primary commodity exporters to world markets, grew predominantly as part of the global economy. Our econometric analysis shows that measures of globalization — in particular industrial production in the world core and international transport costs — are much better predictors of the size of Southeast Asia's main cities than domestic factors such as total population, GDP per capita, land area or government expenditure.     

An East Asian paradigm?

The World Bank's 1993 East Asian Miracle report proposed two models of East Asian Development, one based on the Japanese economy, the other on the more recent miracle economies of Southeast Asia. The latter pursued open-market and investment policies compatible with Anglo-American economic norms, while Japan and its coterie (South Korea and Taiwan) forged industrial policy regimes with high levels of government intervention and protection. Japan takes a different view of Southeast Asian success—as a combination of conscious emulation of Japan and concentrated Japanese foreign direct investment, aid, and regional industrial strategy. This article explores the tension between the World Bank thesis and the Japanese view, embodied in a growth metaphor called flying geese. The author concludes that Japan has been far more reactive and opportunistic than the flying geese metaphor suggests, but that this paradigm has a profound influence on Japanese government and corporate strategy in Asia.     

基于比较优势的中国代工企业空间转移的可能性研究

随着中国劳动力成本、劳动生产率及其他经济环境的变化,代工企业正面临比较优势的削弱。失去比较优势的中国代工企业未来会转向何方?是在中国国内布局做一定调整,转向劳动力价格相对低廉的中国内陆?或是转向劳动力价格更低廉的东南亚及南亚国家?还是直接撤回劳动生产率高、失业率居高不下的发达国家?本文通过对代工企业比较优势的实证分析,论述比较优势丢失的原因,并对代工企业可能转移的路径做进一步探讨。     

Time-varying Cost of Equity Capital in Southeast Asian Countries

This paper investigates variation in the cost of equity capital for the Southeast Asian countries using firm-level data over the period of 1990–2004. It is found that decreases in the firm-level cost of equity capital have been associated with stock market liberalization and securities market development. The results of the present study suggest that earlier empirical evidence regarding the decrease in the cost of equity capital using country-level data cannot be generalized to different types of firms. There has been significant time variation in the cost of equity capital within countries and across firms.     

The decline of child labour: labour markets and family economies in Europe and North America since 1830

This survey of the ‘adulting’ of national and family economies argues that understanding of the segmentation of labour markets and of the male breadwinner has been impoverished by a failure to consider age alongside gender, and that we are at best in a situation where contextualized studies may provide some insight into reasons for the decline of child labour. With respect to family economies, there has been very little study of the timing or cause of the diminution of children's contributions, or of how, if at all, that decline is related to the rise in married women's participation in the labour force.     

Child labour and academic achievement: Evidence from Gansu Province in China

This paper considers the relationship between child labour and a child's academic achievement in rural China. Using a unique longitudinal, multi-level survey, the Gansu Survey of Children and Families (GSCF) which was enrolled in the Gansu province, I use a quasi-maximum likelihood estimation (QMLE) and find that more than 1 h of child labour in the previous time period has a negative effect on a child's academic achievement in the subsequent period after controlling for child talent. I also show that previous academic achievement has no strong significant effect on current child labour by applying a logistic model. Based on the data, the fact that those effects are not very big or not significant suggests that child labour in China is not a big problem when compared with other developing countries (Bacolod & Ranjan 2008).     

A note on educational performance of economics graduate programs in East and Southeast Asia

This paper considers educational performance of economics graduate programs in East and Southeast Asia by examining the highest educational origins of the regional contributors in the top five journals between January 1995 and July 2005. Evidence proves that East and Southeast Asian graduates represent 13% of the contributors, have a 10% share of the regional aggregate AER-equivalent-length pages, and American doctors are dominant. Educational productivity of East and Southeast Asian economics graduate programs is thought to be equal, at best, to that of the middle-ranked ones in the United States top-50 schools.     

THE CONDITIONS GOVERNING AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHEAST ASIA

The author was Director of the Bangkok Office of the Center for Southeast Asian Studies of Kyoto University from 1963 to 1966, during which period he made a study of agricultural development in Thialand and also visited the various countries of Southeast Asia. On the basis of this field-work he makes clear the factors impeding the development of agriculture in Southeast Asia with regard to such matters as decision-making units, capital, socio-economic conditions, technology, and prices, and goes on to advocate some feasible development policies.     

Income Distribution in East Asian Developing Countries: recent trends

This paper updates estimates of the trends in income distribution in the eight countries of the developing East and Southeast Asian region. In the last update by Krongkaew (1994 ), inequality was found to be increasing in the newly industrialising economies of Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan, while in the ASEAN−4 (with the exception of Thailand) it was declining. Since then, the region has undergone the East Asian financial crisis of 1997–98. Recent data indicate that income distribution in Hong Kong and Taiwan continues to improve. Income inequality in South Korea declined until 1993 but began to increase slowly until the crisis sharply widened the disparity. The evidence for Singapore is mixed, with one set of estimates showing a dip in inequality while another indicates a widening of income disparity during the crisis. The crisis had the immediate impact of improving income distribution in all the ASEAN–4 countries, mainly because of reductions in the income shares of the top income groups. Later data show that inequality has since risen in all of them, except for Malaysia (for which no recent data are available).     

Japan's Policy Stance on East Asian Neo-Regionalism: From Being a “Reluctant”, to Becoming a “Proactive” State

Abstract

This article is a theoretically grounded empirical contribution aimed at shedding light on Japan's policy stance on East Asian neo-regionalism. It aims to examine the recent region-building process in East Asia. The dynamics in East Asia suggest that regional institutionalization, brought about by norm diffusion based on the idea of neo-regionalism, is likely to follow a progressive and evolutionary trajectory through the institutionalization of the Association of Southeast Asian Nation (ASEAN)?+?3 (South Korea, Japan and China). It provides a wide spectrum of regional-integrationist perspectives in order to offer as full a picture as possible of Japan's role in promoting regional integration in East Asia. The key finding of this article is that Japan has changed from a being “reluctant”, to becoming a “proactive” state in the context of regional collaboration in East Asia.     

Japan's outward FDI potential

While Japan's outward FDI stock is historically high, it is not necessarily clear whether there is untapped growth potential, given the economic size of Japan and that of partner countries. This paper examines whether Japan's actual outward FDI stock is high or low relative to the FDI predicted by the gravity model using the outward FDI patterns of all OECD nations, which we call counterfactual FDI. The results indicate that the ratio of Japan's actual to counterfactual FDI is the highest among the OECD countries as of the year 2015. The regional distribution of Japan's actual to counterfactual FDI favors Southeast Asian nations, South Africa and the US. These results imply that Japan has no unrealized potential for outward FDI.     

Book Reviews

Book reviewed in this articles:
Technology Transfer and Development: implications for developing Asia
Asian Development Bank David C. Cole, Hal S. Scott and Philip A. Wellons (eds)
Trade Union Behaviour in the Philippines: 1946–1990 Leopoldo J. Dejillas
Regional Trading Agreements Among Developing Countries: the ASEAN example Dean A. DeRosa
Pacific Trade and Investment: options for the 90s Wendy Dobson and Frank Flatters (eds)
Overseas Chinese Business Networks in Asia
International Capital Markets: developments, prospects, and policy issues David Folkerts-Landau and Takatoshi Ito, et al.
Contemporary Issues in Philippine Rice Farming Akimi Fujimoto, Corazon B. Lamug and Toshiro Matsuda (eds)
Growth Theories in Light of the East Asian Experience Takatoshi Ito and Anne O. Krueger (eds)
Industrialization and Agricultural Surplus: a comparative study of economic development in Asia Massoud Karshenas
Vietnam's Rural Transformation Benedict J. Tria Kerkvliet and Doug J. Porter (eds)
Thailand's Industrialization and its Consequences Medhi Krongkaew (ed.)
Local Economy and Entrepreneurship in Thailand: a case study of Nakhon Ratchasima Yoko Ueda
Macroeconomic Management in Southeast Asia's Transitional Economies Manuel F. Montes, Romeo A. Reyes and Somsak Tambunlertchai (eds)
Growing Out of the Plan: Chinese economic reform 1978–1993 Barry Naughton
The New Wave of Foreign Direct Investment in Asia Compiled by Nomura Research Institute and Institute of Southeast Asian Studies
Urban Poverty in Asia: a survey of critical issues Ernesto Pernia (ed.)
Malaysian Development: a retrospective Martin Rudner
China's Rural Enterprises: ten case studies John Wong, Rong Ma, and Mu Yang (eds)     

Influence of real estate prices on domestic bank loans in Southeast Asia

This study examines whether and how fluctuations in real estate prices affected bank lending in Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand before and after the 1997–98 Asian financial crisis. Since the crisis, it has been claimed that the rise and fall in the price of real estate, which is used as collateral, affected bank lending and the macroeconomy in these Southeast Asian countries. The study implements a dynamic model of bank lending and employs a test using the panel data of domestic bank balance sheets in order to estimate the influence of real estate prices on new bank lending in the three countries. The study also examines the conditions surrounding the role of real estate as collateral for bank loans in the countries. The regression results suggest that fluctuations in real estate prices can influence domestic bank lending and did so, especially after the crisis in Singapore and Thailand, and that domestic bank lending behaviour in these countries changed after the crisis.     

SHOULD THE SOUTHEAST ASIAN COUNTRIES FORM A CURRENCY UNION?

This paper examines some of the factors related to the formation of a currency union in Southeast Asia. The main part of the paper presents the results of our examination of the correlation of shocks for the Southeast Asian countries using a structural vector autoregression. The shocks are identified using restrictions on the long‐run coefficient matrix as suggested by Blanchard and Quah (1989). The correlations of shocks for the EU and NAFTA countries are used for comparison. The Southeast Asian countries are shown to have more strongly correlated shocks than the EU countries. Compared with the NAFTA countries, external shocks are more closely correlated for the ASEAN countries, but the supply and demand shocks are less correlated. Indonesia, Singapore, and Malaysia, in particular, exhibit a high degree of correlation of shocks. Other criteria for monetary union, such as intra‐regional trade, openness of the economy, and similarity of monetary policy are also examined.     

THE SECOND NOEL BUTLIN LECTURE: LABOUR-INTENSIVE INDUSTRIALISATION IN GLOBAL HISTORY

East Asian industrialisation has shown that modern industry has occurred across different cultures under a variety of factor-endowment conditions. The global history of the diffusion of industrialisation over the past two centuries suggests two distinct routes. The first is the 'Western path' associated with capital- and energy-intensive industry. The second path to creating a modern industrial economy is the 'East Asian path' based on labour-intensive industrialisation that has built on quality labour resources cultivated in the traditional sector. This was the path followed by Japan from the nineteenth century and by many other countries in Asia during the twentieth century.