Net job creation in the US economy: lessons from monthly data, 1950–2011

This article studies the monthly net job creation (NJC) at the aggregate and the sectoral levels in the United States over the period 1950 to 2011. The article has few important findings. First, NJC did not show a significant trend over the last six decades, which led to a fall in the NJC rate. Second, NJC was very volatile and it could change course even in the span of 1 month. Third, there was no clear pattern about the co-movement between NJC and the change in the unemployment rate. Fourth, the averages of total NJC and private NJC since late 2010 were significantly higher than their respective historical averages and the volatility in NJC since the end of the Great Recession was not unusual by historical standards. Fifth, while the evidence about the effects of the 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act on employment is inconclusive, some sectors appeared to benefit from it. Finally, the most frequent drop in the unemployment rate was by 0.1%, and drops of more than 0.2% should not be highly expected.     

Persistence,mean reversion and non-linearities in the US housing prices over 1830–2013

The objective of this study is to provide a direct estimate of the degree of persistence of measures of nominal and real house prices for the US economy, covering the longest possible annual sample of data, namely 1830–2013. The estimation of the degree of persistence accommodates for non-linear (deterministic) trends using Chebyshev polynomials in time. In general, the results show a high degree of persistence in the series along with a component of non-linear behaviour. In general, if we assume uncorrelated errors, non-linearities are observed in both nominal and real prices, but this hypothesis is rejected in favour of linear models for the log-transformation of the data. However, if autocorrelated errors are permitted, non-linearities are observed in all cases, and mean reversion is found in the case of logged prices, though given the wide confidence intervals, the unit root null hypothesis cannot be rejected in these cases.     

The time structure of production in the US, 2002–2009

The US time structure of production during the 2002 through 2009 business cycle is characterized empirically using industry-level input-output data. An industry’s total industry output requirement (TIOR) is proposed as a metric for “roundaboutness”. I find that the time structure of production lengthened following the Federal Reserve’s 2002 expansionary deviation from the Taylor rule and then contracted during the Great Recession. Value added growth in the most-roundabout of US industries accelerated relative to that of the least-roundabout industries. Heading into the Great Recession, value-added growth in the most-roundabout industries contracted early and turned negative in 2007 while value-added growth in the least-roundabout industries remained positive until 2009. The stylized facts of the time structure of production are consistent with Austrian Business Cycle Theory.     

A tale of two Ginis in the US, 1921–2012

Following a methodology by Jantzen and Volpert (2012), we use IRS Adjusted Gross Income data for the US (1921–2012) to estimate two Gini indices representing inequality at the bottom and the top of the income distribution, and to calculate the overall Gini as a function of the parameters underlying the two indices. A steady increase in the overall Gini since the Second World War actually hides two different periods of distributional changes. First, the increase in inequality from the mid 1940s to the late 1970s is driven by rising inequality at the bottom of the income distribution that more than offsets a decrease in inequality at the top. The implication is that middle-income earners gained relative to high-incomes, and especially relative to low-income earners. Second, the rise in the Gini after 1981 is driven by rising inequality at the top. Third, top-driven inequality follows a U-shaped trajectory consistent with Piketty and Saez (2003, 2006). Fourth, the welfare effects of the different distributional changes behind increasing inequality can be evaluated in light of the Lorenz-dominance criterion by Atkinson (1970): we argue that the rise in inequality since 1981 is much more likely to be associated with a social welfare loss net of compensating growth.     

Flexibility for Whom? Control over Work Schedule Variability in the US

Abstract

According to the May Work Schedules and Work at Home Supplement of the Current Population Survey in 1997, 2001, and 2004, the proportion of employees in the United States with variable starting and/or stopping times who do not control their schedules has increased rapidly since the late 1990s. This category included one out of nine civilian employees ages 18–65 in 2004. These jobs have increased rapidly within industries and occupations. The incumbents of these jobs are more likely to be men, black, and immigrant; white, US-born women' chances of holding such jobs are greatly reduced by their responsibility for children. These findings identify a growing tendency to structure jobs so as to exacerbate the conflict between family work and paid employment, and to reinforce the gender division of labor between home and wage labor, especially in the most disadvantaged communities within the US.     

Trade policy,market ‘distortions’, and agriculture in the process of economic development Brazil, 1950–1974

Brazilian agriculture was heavily and increasingly taxed during the 1950–1974 Import Substitution Industrialization process as a consequence of ‘distortions’ in the price structure. The subsidized rural credit policy from the mid 60's benefited only those segments of producers already well-off and more technologically advanced. Thus, the economic policy package of the period was highly selective and discriminatory both between sectors and within agriculture. The article systematically analyses the size and direction of the income transfers involved in this process.     

Women,Real Estate,and Wealth in a Southern US County, 1780–1860

Abstract

In her 1986 book Women and the Law of Property in Early America, Marylynn Salmon concludes that the legal and economic changes experienced by early national and antebellum (pre–Civil War) United States women – which culminated in the passage of married women's property acts – were evolutionary rather than revolutionary. This paper examines changes in the economic status of women preceding the enactment of these statutes by analyzing new and valuable information: real-estate deeds and probate records in Henrico County, Virginia. Supplementing the diverse, yet limited, international and historical evidence on women's wealth holdings, this exploration of the asset accumulation of elite, free women in the southern US reveals that women's property holdings, personal and real, rose substantially over the 1780–1860 period. Thus, these results are consistent with those of other scholars, such as Marylynn Salmon, who document an increase in early national and antebellum women's economic status.     

Consumer Debt and the Measurement of Poverty and Inequality in the US∗

This paper argues that interest on consumer debt must be taken into account when measuring poverty and inequality. These interest payments cannot be used to support household living standards. This makes middle- and low-income households worse off. Recent increases in consumer debt means that this deterioration in living standards is not captured by conventional government statistics. Using the Survey of Consumer Finances, we make estimates of poverty and inequality that take into account rising interest payments on consumer debt and discuss some of the implications of these estimates.     

A Behavioral Analysis of Technological Change in the Computer Industry, 1930–1950

This article presents a binary economic critique of Milton Friedman's thesis that a competitive, free market, private enterprise, capitalist system is an essential condition for freedom. After identifying deficiencies in Friedman's understanding of private property and economics, this article explains how a market economy based on Friedman's flawed understanding concentrates economic power in a plutocracy, perpetuates chronic underemployment of labor and capital, and suppresses the freedom of most people. It advances a "binary economic approach" to create a more productive and democratic market system characterized by greater, more sustainable, and more widely-distributed prosperity, economic power, and individual freedom than prevails in any existing capitalist economy.     

Control–ownership wedge,board of directors,and the value of excess cash

This study investigates the effects of the separation of control and ownership on the value of cash holdings in publicly listed French firms. It also sheds light on the role of board independence in such a relation. Theory suggests that investors are more likely to discount the value of excess cash held by firms with low corporate governance. Using the valuation regression of Fama and French (1998), empirical results show that the value of excess cash holdings decreases dramatically with the separation of control and cash-flow rights of the controlling shareholder. This value discount is, however, less pronounced in firms with more independent boards (i.e., boards with more independent directors and separate chief executive officer and chair positions). Our empirical findings support the argument that excess cash contributes less to firm value when minority shareholders are more likely to be expropriated by controlling shareholders. Independent boards seem to be effective in mitigating investors' concerns about the use of excess cash. Overall, the results provide compelling evidence that cash valuation is largely influenced by corporate governance quality in a concentrated ownership setting.     

Freight transportation costs and the thickening of the US–Mexico border

Border regulatory requirements and administrative practices changed subsequent to the September 11, 2001 (9/11), terrorist attacks in the United States. Research in this study examines the manners in which transportation cost data for merchandise imports from Mexico behaved before and after 2001. Evidence is obtained that confirms results earlier tabulated for imports from Canada. Empirical results further indicate that, beyond freight cost changes, growth in the value of imports from Mexico was disrupted by events associated with the aftermath of 9/11.     

Alcohol consumption in the UK, 1955–85: a system-wide analysis

As a consequence of economic reforms in China, firms have ben affected by three essential changes. First, instead of surrendering all profits to the Government, firms now pay tax on their profits according to a contract between them and the Government and retain the balance as their own controllable surplus. Second, the central economic plan determines only part of firms' production. After fulfilling the command plan, firms are allowed to adjust their production scale by the availability of inputs and the profitability of production. Third, most consumer and investment goods have two prices, a plan price and a market price. As most of the plan prices are always lower than the market prices, the latter play a basic role in determining firms' profits. After a decade of economic reforms, the important question is: can Chinese state enterprises perform like market entities? The analysis shows that Chinese firms in transition domimic the production behaviour of market-based, efficiency-oriented firms.     

Profit rate in the US, 1949–2007: a Markov switching assessment

The article investigates the growth in the general profit rate in the US during the 1949–2007 period with a Markov switching model. The evidence is consistent with a long swing with means displaying opposite signs under the two regimes (increasing or declining) and high degree of persistence within each regime. The results for this nonlinear approach reinforce previous empirical evidence that does not provide support for a systematic and declining tendency in profit rate as advanced in the Marxian literature.     

Economic growth and technical change in Britain 1950–1978

A vintage model of output and employment is estimated using aggregate post-war U.K. data by non-linear full information methods. It is used to analyse the causes of low factor-productivity growth. In addition to a lack of investment the model suggests that inferior capital goods and inappropriate choice of technology are also important factors.     

Portfolio flows and the US dollar–yen exchange rate

This paper investigates the effects of portfolio flows on the US dollar–Japanese yen exchange rate changes over the period 1988:01–2011:04. Using a time-varying transition probability Markov-switching framework, the results suggest that the impact of portfolio flows on the dollar–yen exchange rate changes is state-dependent. In particular, the results show that portfolio inflows from Japan toward the US, more than monetary variables, strengthen the probability of remaining in the dollar–yen appreciation (low volatility) state. Therefore, credit controls on the flows can be used as a policy tool to pursue economic and financial stability.     

US Fiscal Policy,Manufacturing Stagnation,and the Shift to Financialization in the Era of Globalization: An Econometric Analysis, 1973–2015

ABSTRACT

Financialization can be partially attributed to the decline in the US manufacturing profit rate since the 1970s. However, scholars have not reached a consensus regarding the factors responsible for stagnation in manufacturing. This paper employs an Auto-regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to test the impact of both national defense and government consumption expenditure on manufacturing profitability in the United States from 1973, the onset of stagnation, to 2015. Its goal is two-fold: to determine whether stagnation is associated with a decline in Keynesian policies, and to examine the potential for state fiscal programs to reverse this trend and facilitate a shift of private investment away from the financial sector and into manufacturing. The paper finds that the impact of government consumption expenditure on the manufacturing profit rate is positive and significant in both the short-term and long-term (from 1973–2015 and 1973–1993), while the long-term impact becomes negative from 1983 to 2015, when the financial sector profit rate began its upward trend. This casts doubt on whether Keynesian fiscal policies could be employed to restore a healthy profit rate in the manufacturing sector and lower unemployment.     

What's behind the rise in profitability in the US in the 1980s and 1990s?

Profitability in the US has been rising since the early 1980sand by 1997 was at its highest level since its post-World WarII peak in the mid-1960s, and the profit share, by one definition,at its highest point. In this paper, I examine the role of thechange in the profit share and capital intensity, as well asstructural change, on movements in the rate of profit between1947 and 1997. Its recent recovery is traced to a rise in theprofit share in national income, a slowdown in capital–labourgrowth at the industry level, and employment shifts to relativelylabour-intensive industries.     

China–US economic and trade relations,trade news,and short-term fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate

The trade war between the US and China affects the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate. We collect news on China–US trade policies and talks from January 2017 to July 2020. Results show that China–US dialogue and tariff imposition have the greatest impact on the percentage of RMB appreciation and depreciation. Additionally, tariff relaxation and increasing enterprise restrictions can cause a sharp appreciation and depreciation. “Policies” events and trade news from the US influence RMB fluctuations the most significantly. Finally, positive events cannot significantly cause RMB appreciation, but negative events can significantly cause RMB devaluation.     

Regime switching and the (in)stability of the price–rent relationship: evidence from the US

Present value models of house prices assert that in the absence of self-fulfilling bubbles, a house price is equal to the present discount value of all future rents, which implies a linear relationship between house price and rent, and hence a stable price-to-rent ratio. Using a Markov switching error correction model, we re-examine this relationship in the US housing market and find two distinctive regimes: one with a long-run relation between house price and rent predicted by the present value models and the other in which the relation is nonlinear. Furthermore, we find evidence that deviations of house prices from the present value models’ predictions are caused by the overreaction of house prices to movements in rents rather than speculative bubbles attributable to extraneous factors.