人民币汇率升值对就业的影响

2005年我国实行人民币汇率改革之后,人民币汇率始终处在升值通道内。经典国际经济理论表明,汇率的变化会通过对贸易总量、贸易结构、外商直接投资(FDI)以及整个宏观经济的影响而影响就业。本文分析人民币汇率升值背景下,劳动力市场上不同类型劳动力的就业和工资可能受到的影响。基本结论如下:第一,工资刚性条件下,人民币升值对就业总量的影响表现为先上升、后下降的态势,即"倒V形"态势。当人民币在一定幅度内升值时,各种类型劳动力的就业都有所增加,增加幅度的排序依次是中等技术水平劳动力、高等技术水平劳动力和低等技术水平劳动力。人民币升值幅度过大时,三种类型劳动力的就业都有所下降。第二,如果假设基期劳动力被充分使用的条件下,随着人民币升值幅度的增加,高等技术水平劳动力、中等技术水平劳动力和低等技术水平劳动力的工资基本呈现出"倒V形"的趋势,但工资下降的速度明显快于上升的速度。第三,在工资刚性的条件下,人民币在一定幅度内升值,内资企业的就业上升,超过一定幅度后,就业下降,表现出"倒V形"的态势;而对于外资企业来说,人民币升值,则就业下降。从假设基期劳动力被充分利用的情况下更容易看出劳动力在内资和外资企业之间的重新分布:内资企业吸收了来自于外资企业中减少的劳动力需求。根据分析结论,本文提出了以下针对性的政策建议。第一,人民币升值导致的贸易结构升级增加了对中等技术水平劳动力和高等技术水平劳动力的需求,尤其是对中等技术水平劳动力的需求更加旺盛。因此,快速提升我国人力资本存量是应对国际市场竞争的核心。第二,内资企业是稳定就业的主要力量,鼓励内资企业的发展,重点在于促进中小企业的发展,中小企业是吸引就业的主力军,推动非贸易产业的中小企业发展是解决就业问题的关键。     

汇率调整对中国就业的影响--基于理论与经验的研究

汇率变动影响出口产品的价格 ,改变出口企业的投资决策 ,从而使出口企业的生产规模发生变化 ,劳动力需求也受到影响。当出口在一国经济中占有重要地位时 ,汇率的调整就会影响就业。本文通过理论和实证方法 ,分析人民币汇率调整对就业的实际影响。研究结果表明 ,人民币升值将抑制就业的增长 ,并加重就业负担。因此 ,目前人民币汇率不宜大幅上升 ,但有必要对外汇管理和外贸体制进行适时的调整 ,以适应日益开放的竞争性市场体系     

人民币升值对我国制造业的就业影响

国际金融危机背景下人民币不断升值以来,我国的就业形势一直比较严峻。人民币升值对制造业就业的影响,主要体现在总需求效应、资本替代劳动效应、国际投资效应以及消费效应等方面。本文运用协整关系检验、格兰杰因果关系检验和误差修正模型等研究方法对人民币升值影响制造业就业量进行了实证分析,结果表明,人民币汇率与制造业就业量之间存在长期均衡关系,人民币在合理的范围内适度升值有利于该就业量的提高。     

人民币实际有效汇率水平对我国就业的影响——基于VAR模拟的实证分析

人民币汇率的变动可以改变一国出口产品的国际竞争力。我国出口企业目前大多属于劳动密集型企业，人民币汇率贬值可以促进商品出口进而增加就业。本文通过建立宏观经济计量VAR模型，应用实际有效汇率变动对我国就业的影响进行了脉冲分析和方差分解分析，发现实际有效汇率升值对我国劳动力就业存在明显的负面影响。     

人民币汇率影响就业传导机制的计量检验——基于改革开放以来时空及功能耦合演化的统计分析

文章在回顾我国改革开放30年来人民币汇率制度演进的基础上,利用我国最新的相关数据对人民币汇率与就业之间的关系进行了实证分析,指出人民币汇率变动可通过四种传导机制影响就业:在短期内主要是贸易传导机制发生作用;较长期内,资源分配传导机制起主要作用;在长期内,生产方式和效率传导机制起着重要作用。     

我国就业政策的六十年变迁

我国改革开放前的就业政策,是在计划经济条件下产生的,反映计划经济的特点和固有弊端。改革开放初期,就业政策由表及里地推进创新,逐步以广开门路形成多元化就业格局,在新增劳动力中确立双向选择关系,全面促使劳动力合理流动,直至剥离企业富余人员。进入社会主义市场经济阶段,就业政策的创新目标演变为建立政府宏观调控的市场竞争就业机制。于是,就业政策从规范劳动力市场的管理制度入手,大力推进就业和再就业活动。     

论就业的压力及其缓解

就业问题是当今世界各国面临的最大课题之一。我国经济发展到今天,由于人口政策的失误、就业政策的短期性致使我国劳动力数量供过于求,劳动力质量供不应求,就业压力不断增加。为了缓解就业压力,我们必然发展经济,增加劳动力需求;控制人口数量,缩闰劳动力供给;发展教育,提高劳动力质量。     

人民币升值影响就业的机制、效应与政策含义

人民币升值可以通过产品出口、原材料进口、资产负债比和劳动效率等渠道影响劳动力市场就业,其影响程度受产品市场结构和劳动力市场特征的影响。本文利用1980-2006年的年度数据和协整及误差修正模型实证检验了人民币实际有效汇率与制造业就业之间的关系。研究发现,人民币升值对制造业短期和长期就业都有显著的抑制作用,并且人民币趋势性升值和周期性升值都对就业有显著的抑制作用。因此,维持汇率稳定和实施积极的劳动力市场政策是减少人民币汇率变动对就业的负面冲击和就业促进的政策重点。     

人民币汇率机制的现实与选择

自2003年夏季以来,国际上要求人民币升值的呼声不断加大。我国则在重申把建立更加适应市场供求变化、更为灵活的人民币汇率形成机制作为改革目标的同时,作出了人民币暂不升值,也不改变现行汇率机制的回应。     

试析人民币汇率对中国贸易和就业的影响

本文从汇率在贸易中的重要性入手,首先阐述了人民币升值的压力背景,然后详细分析了人民币升值对中国贸易和就业的影响.     

John Stuart Mill's Theory Of Justice

John Stuart Mill has traditionally been portrayed as self-contradictory and failing to construct a unified social theory. Recent scholarship, however, has challenged this view, finding Mill's work to be creatively synthetic in bridging the antinomies inherent in liberal democratic thought. This revisionist interpretation of Mill is advanced by an understanding of his theory of justice and its role in shaping his policy positions on issues such as welfare, education, voting rights, property rights, taxation, government intervention, and the future of capitalism.     

A Rich Vein for “Reality Mining”北大核心CSSCISSCI

Arik Hesseldahl In the aftermath of the September 11 attacks, U.S. officials quickly turned their attention to other potential targets, including California's Golden Gate Bridge. What would happen if terrorists took down the bridge between San Francisco and Marin County? How much of the region would be affected and for how long?     

John Stuart Mill's Theories of Wealth and Income Distribution

Although he was much influenced by David Ricardo when he wrote the classical part of his Principles , John Stuart Mill was not a Ricardian when he penned his theories of wealth and distribution. They are based on a triple foundation. First, a belief that economics is a moral discipline. Second a theory of custom-driven human behavior. Third, an empirically formed conviction that the institutions of state, education and business cooperate to structure the distribution of income. On the basis of these presuppositions, Mill formulated 1) an institutional theory of the formation of human and non-human wealth and 2) an even more institutional theory of distribution demonstrating how the aforementioned institutions malignantly skew the distribution of income to the advantage of the propertied classes and to the extreme disadvantage of the working class. As a social economist, Mill recommended institutional reforms designed to eradicate the poverty of the working class.     

中国养活自己能力的长期预测:技术和政策分析

中国拥有世界五分之一强的人口 ,收入又在迅速增长。因此 ,国际上很自然地会考虑或推测她在今后的几十年是否有能力养活自己。中国的人口预计将从 2 0 0 0年的 1 2 8亿增长到 2 0 2 0年的 1 4 6亿 ,和 2 0 3 0年的 1 4 9亿。与此同时 ,人均收入的增长将导致对家畜和鱼类产品更大的需求 ,因而对饲料的需求也将有很大的增长     

Toward a Phylogenetic Reconstruction of Organizational Life

Synopsis Classification is an important activity that facilitates theory development in many academic disciplines. Scholars in fields such as organizational science, management science and economics and have long recognized that classification offers an approach for ordering and understanding the diversity of organizational taxa (groups of one or more similar organizational entities). However, even the most prominent organizational classifications have limited utility, as they tend to be shaped by a specific research bias, inadequate units of analysis and a standard neoclassical economic view that does not naturally accommodate the disequilibrium dynamics of modern competition. The result is a relatively large number of individual and unconnected organizational classifications, which tend to ignore the processes of change responsible for organizational diversity. Collectively they fail to provide any sort of universal system for ordering, compiling and presenting knowledge on organizational diversity. This paper has two purposes. First, it reviews the general status of the major theoretical approaches to biological and organizational classification and compares the methods and resulting classifications derived from each approach. Definitions of key terms and a discussion on the three principal schools of biological classification (evolutionary systematics, phenetics and cladistics) are included in this review. Second, this paper aims to encourage critical thinking and debate about the use of the cladistic classification approach for inferring and representing the historical relationships underpinning organizational diversity. This involves examining the feasibility of applying the logic of common ancestry to populations of organizations. Consequently, this paper is exploratory and preparatory in style, with illustrations and assertions concerning the study and classification of organizational diversity.     

Information infrastructure: Who builds broadband networks?

This paper examines the essential difference between the U.S. and Japan, when one considers information infrastructure. There are seven perception gaps between the U.S. and Japan concerning Information Infrastructure policies. These gaps must be understood in order to compare the countries' governmental policies in this area. In looking at the present circumstances, the essential question to answer concerns who is to build, own and operate the network(s) of the infrastructure. Liberalization is certain to be a central factor in the ongoing telecommunications debates. Now that customers have had a taste of the liberalized market-place, the movement toward more open markets will be difficult to stop. When considering options, it is necessary to pay close attention to standardized network access and the increasingly important role software plays. These issues are causing us to take a new approach to the traditional role played by regulators. They also force a closer look at the appropriate structure of utility companies. This paper addresses the above issues in hopes of stimulating dialog on the new telecommunications infrastructure paradigm.     

海岛地区产业演替及资源基础分析--以舟山群岛为例

改革开放以来,舟山市产业构成发生了显著变化,其经济发展过程可以划分为三个阶段。1992年前,是以产业结构渔业占绝对地位的单一结构阶段;1993—1998年,以旅游业为主的第三产业快速发展阶段;上世纪末以来,又进入了新一轮的经济发展时期,即工业产值比重快速增加阶段。根据海岛的自然资源基础和特点,在新世纪的经济发展过程中,舟山市应定位为生态型的港口旅游城市。以港口及临港工业为主导,以海岛旅游和海洋经济为特色,大力发展第二产业和第三产业。海岛地区的主导产业应体现海岛资源优势及区位优势,以集群性环保型产业为主。同时由于海岛地区淡水资源缺乏,主导产业也应着重选择低耗水型产业。     

风险视角下企业治理结构和研发创新——基于委托代理模型的研究

本文基于委托代理模型,从风险的视角研究企业治理结构对研发创新能力的影响。本文构建了一个包含创新活动的委托代理模型进行理论分析,利用动态DEA 模型测算创新能力,并使用2015-2018年我国上市制造业企业数据进行实证检验。实证部分检验了理论结论:委托代理问题不利于企业提升研发创新能力,且客观风险和主观风险厌恶会加剧该负面影响。基于此,本文认为上市企业应根据企业自身研发活动特点有针对性地改善企业治理结构,提出了适当延长代理人任期、推动股权激励计划、提升代理人的风险承担能力等建议。     

生物群落结构原型的仿生学模拟

模拟生命系统管理规律的科学即管理仿生学,是知识时代仿生学研究的新领域与前沿.基于模拟生物群落结构规律的研究目的,采用仿生学模拟的研究方法,以生物群落结构为原型,建立了仿生群落结构模型.结论为:垂直结构、水平结构、时间结构与交错区结构是支持生物群落生命活动的结构规律,以该规律为原型,推理建立了仿生分层结构、仿生优化结构、仿生动态结构与仿生相邻结构,四种仿生结构分别侧重于管理资源的分层管理、局部优化管理、动态过程管理、相邻关系管理,该模型为建立类似生物群落的人造管理系统即仿生群落管理系统提供了仿生结构模型.可以预测,该模型具有广泛的应用价值,能够推动管理仿生学的发展.