透视美国民主政治的作用

近两个多世纪以来,美国社会的发展(包括经济、民主政治和文化的发展等)和稳定是众多因素综合作用的结果。但是,民主政治制度在其中发挥了不可或缺的作用。主要表现为,(1)为政府政治统治奠定了合法性基础;(2)清晰的界定了公共利益;(3)促进社会在稳定的基础上进行渐进改革。     

美军电磁频谱管控体系研究

电磁频谱是重要的战略资源,有效的频谱管控可以保证平时和战时部队电子装备的频谱需求,在此方面美军一直走在世界的前列。本文着重研究了美军电磁频谱管控法规条令、体系结构,分析了美军高效频谱管控的关键所在,为加强我军频谱管控各个方面提供了参考和帮助。     

孔子学院在美国的舆论环境评估

国际舆论是制约孔子学院海外发展的一个重要因素,但对此一直缺乏比较系统的研究。美国是全球设立孔子学院最多的国家,作者通过内容分析的方法,对孔子学院在美国的舆论环境进行了初步评估。美国媒体对孔子学院的关注整体上在增多,但负面评价自2005年以来呈总体上升态势,并成为当前的主导评价。究其根源,诸如担心孔子学院成为促进中国政治影响的工具等方面的忧虑是促成消极评价的主要原因,而积极评价则源自于增加商业机会等经济因素方面的考虑。但反观自身,中方的一些做法也不利于提升孔子学院在美国媒体中的形象。有鉴于此,中国有必要因地制宜,根据美国的政治、文化特性,在推广进度、合作模式、外宣策略等相关方面进行及时调整和完善,通过不断改善舆论环境来促进孔子学院在美国的可持续发展。     

当代美国"新重商主义"述评

美国“新重商主义”的经济目标是削减美国的贸易逆差，但其政治目标涵盖更多层面。支撑“新重商主义”的四大迷思具有强大的迷惑力和煽动性，但根本经不起实证检验。“新重商主义”的政策主张就是与邻为壑政策，影响美国及全球贸易和经济的发展。     

美国年报风险披露的现状和启示

会计报表的风险披露在我国尚未形成专门的规范。文章通过对美国上市公司2002年度的年报进行风险披露的调查,比较了两国报表在披露内容和披露形式方面的差异,并对其原因进行了分析,提出了几种可能的对策。     

Comparison on Venture Capital Mechanism between the U.S. and Japan and Its Implications

Focusing on the mechanism of venture capital in fund-raising, domain, stage, scale, and exit, this paper makes a comparison on the differences of venture capital mechanism between the U.S.A. and Japan. Further, it probes into the causes of these differences in structures of resource and organization and cultural background of venture capital. And finally it summarizes on the policy implications in developing venture capital in China.     

美国诚信体系建设对我国的启示

从以教育和宗教主导的"软性力量"和以三类信用机构和法律主导的"硬性力量"两个角度来分析美国诚信体系的构成,指出美国诚信体系的特点及存在的问题。借鉴美国诚信体系的建设经验,提出我国诚信体系建设的四条对策与建议。     

The relative price of tradables and nontradables and the U.S. trade balance

The real exchange rate is defined as the relative price of nontradables and tradables. An index of the relative price is constructed for the U.S. and used to explain net exports. The index appears to perform better in explaining net exports than a comparable purchasing power parity real exchange rate. The relative price of nontradables, in turn, is shown to be cointegrated with a set of variables that drive the demand for and supply of nontradables. These variables capture long-run structural and demographic changes of the U.S. economy, such as the increased demand for medical services.     

Exchange Rate Risk and Commodity Trade Between the U.S. and India

Floating exchange rates are said to introduce volatility into the foreign exchange market that could deter trade flows. Previous research employed aggregate import and export trade data and provided mixed results. In this paper we disaggregate the trade data between the U.S. and the emerging economy of India and use the bounds testing approach to cointegration and error-correction modeling to show that in 40 industries that trade between the two countries, exchange rate volatility has negative and positive effects in 40% of industries, in the short run. These short-run effects, however, do not last into the long run in many cases.

Modeling the age and age composition of late 19th century U.S. immigrants from Europe

Using panel data on 12 European source countries that are followed for 26 years (1873-1898), this paper studies age-specific emigration rates and the age composition of U.S. immigration. Two age groups are the focus of attention, 15-40 and over 40. Emigration-rate models and compositional models that satisfy adding-up conditions are estimated by the Hausman-Taylor Instrumental Variable approach. Younger migrants responded more strongly to job opportunities than to wage differentials, whereas older migrants responded more strongly to wage differentials. Both age groups tended to follow recent past migrants to the U.S. Relatively many younger (and relatively fewer older) migrants came from countries with higher percentages of their work forces in agriculture. Higher source-country birthrates discouraged younger migrants, presumably by raising the cost of family migration.     

美国经济衰退对东南亚国家的影响

美国经济衰退给世界经济带来许多不确定因素,也给东南亚经济蒙上一层阴影。美国经济虽然是影响东南亚经济的一个重要因素,但已经不是唯一的因素,东南亚各国正在积极面对,努力摆脱美国经济衰退带来的影响,促进本地区和各国经济的发展。     

中美农产品物流的比较分析

文章通过对中关农产品物流的对比,从两国农产品物流的服务体系、运作模式、支撑体系三方面着手进行分析,找出了我国农产品物流发展滞后的原因,并提出增强我国农产品物流主体的组织化程度、创新我国农产品物流的运行模式、完善农产品物流发展政策等相应的改进措施。     

美元“币权”战略与中国之应对

纵观资本主义全球化的发展历史,在商业资本和产业资本阶段,因资本同质性扩张而形成的以对资源地理纵深控制为目标的地缘关系成为了殖民化时代国际关系的核心。自20世纪70年代以来,金融资本愈益成为世界分工和分配的核心,遂使货币权力超越地缘实力,成为金融资本主义时代国家间关系的新枢纽。苏联解体后,美国"单极"霸权赋权于美元,使其无约束地增发并顺势主导了金融资本全球化,这决定了美元霸权成为币缘政治时代国际关系的实质,并衍生出强化美国的全球币缘战略体系,即以美元资本、能源(石油)、食物(粮食)三大霸权为核心的新霸权体系。作者认为,在此背景下方能理解"币权"的时代特征,即以地缘关系为保障、以决定产业链安全的资源定价权为基础、以当代国家政治主权派生的信用体系以及自主的财政货币政策为核心,美元可以在全球经济金融化竞争的资本扩张中获取利益并转嫁成本。对此,中国亟须恢复人民币的主权货币性质,以实体经济为本来推进国内产业纵向一体化战略、"资源重商主义"战略和"新重农主义"战略,并以陆权为基础构建自己币缘战略安全的陆域纵深。     

Factors That Account for the Large Variations in U.S. Export Prices

Using product level U.S. export data from 1989 to 2001, there is evidence that U.S. exporters price discriminate across markets. Variation in the quality of the products is one reason for the observed price differentiation. U.S. exporters also price discriminate based on transaction costs. Finally, U.S. exporters practice pricing-to-market and this pricing strategy is another source of the variations in U.S. export prices. Some of these conclusions though are weakened when export prices toward the center of the price distribution are considered. JEL no. F14     

African Americans and U.S. Politics: The Gradual Progress of Black Women in Political Representation

This paper argues that since the 1960s, African Americans have substantially increased their political participation in the U.S. political system. It claims that Blacks in the U.S. have built a strong political foundation and that their influence in the country’s political system has grown within the past four decades. The paper highlights, however, that more Black women tend to be active participants in the electoral process than Black men and that there is the potential for Black women to equal or surpass Black men in the number of elected officials within their race in the years and decades to come.

Family and sex-specific U.S. immigration from Europe, 1870–1910: A panel data study of rates and composition

This paper develops and estimates models of family and sex-specific emigration, as well as the sex composition of this emigration, from 12 European source countries to the U.S. for the period 1870–1910. The models are based on the distinction between economic migrants (males, single females, and some married females) and tied or trailing migrants (females) and are estimated with panel data, including data that relate to the occupational/industrial structure of male and female economic activity in source countries. Hausman-Taylor instrumental variable estimates suggest that although both males and females responded to labor-market signals, males were more responsive than females to per capita GDP differences. Moreover, compared to the rest of Europe, Ireland, and Scandinavia were the sources of many young, single male, and female migrants, who responded strongly to gaps in economic opportunities. In fact, much of the European response to such gaps appears to be due to migrants from Ireland and Scandinavia. Females tended to originate in English-speaking countries and countries that were agriculturally oriented. Service and manufacturing jobs in source countries discouraged the migration of females relative to males. Males tended to follow recent migrants more than females, but females responded more to long-term influences as measured by stocks of migrants from their source countries who had previously settled in the U.S. Countries with high birth rates had relatively fewer female emigrants, whereas those with high rates of natural increase 20 years earlier experienced relatively more male emigration. Intact families, other family members (including family-strategy male migrants and trailing female migrants), and single males and females responded strongly to economic incentives, but the singles were most responsive followed by family-strategy males.     

美国对主权基金投资银行业的法律监管

资金总量约在2万亿至3万亿美元的主权基金对美国银行业具有巨大吸引力。尽管出现一些松动的迹象,美国对主权基金投资银行业的法律监管依旧严格。中国应当采取相应的对策以确保中国的主权基金在投资美国银行业时享受合情、合法、合理的待遇。     

Import competition from and offshoring to low-income countries: Implications for employment and wages at U.S. domestic manufacturers

Using confidential linked firm-level trade transactions and census data between 1997 and 2012, we provide new evidence on how American firms without foreign affiliates adjust employment and wages as they adapt to import competition from low-income countries. We provide stylized facts on the input sourcing strategies of these domestic firms, contrasting them with multinationals operating in the same industry. We then investigate how changes in firm input purchases from low-income countries as well as domestic market import penetration from these sources are correlated with changes in employment and wages at surviving domestic firms. Greater offshoring by domestic firms from low-income countries correlates with larger declines in manufacturing employment and in the average production workers’ wage. Given the negative association, however, the estimated magnitudes are small, even for a narrow measure of offshoring that includes only intermediate goods. Import penetration of U.S. markets from these sources is associated with relatively larger changes in employment for arm’s length importing firms, but has no significant correlation with employment changes at firms that do not trade. Given differences in the degree of both offshoring and import penetration, we find substantial variation across industries in the magnitude of changes associated with low-income country imports.     

日本与美国服务贸易结构优化比较研究

服务贸易结构是服务贸易发展水平和发展质量的重要体现。通过采用服务贸易结构优化指数对日本和美国服务贸易结构的变化历程进行了纵向的梳理和阶段性划分,进而对日本和美国两国服务贸易结构优化的发展阶段进行对比,指出两国在服务贸易发展过程中存在相似性和差异性。     

弱势美元背景下的中国资本账户开放

2006年以来,美元对国际主要货币的大幅贬值导致全球金融市场动荡,国际短期资本大量流向中国,威胁中国的金融安全,使中国有步骤推进人民币资本账户可兑换、促进跨境资金双向流动的计划受到挑战。中国需要继续完善市场经济体制,按照市场化原则稳步推进资本账户开放;采取盯住货币汇率制度、完善外汇市场等手段,促进人民币汇率的稳定和灵活;提升人民币的国际影响力,增强中国经济抵抗外部冲击的能力。