中国西部陆海新通道高水平建设研究

中国西部陆海新通道高水平建设是广西及中国西部的新使命新任务,也是向海经济发展的重要推手。海洋与开放是广西发展的两大优势,向海经济是新时代广西以及中国西部高水平发展的实现方式。应当强化开放战略地位,加快北部湾大湾区一体化以及与粤港澳大湾区的合作,加快港口的硬软件建设以及公路综合交通体系建设,统筹推进沿海沿江陆路干线一体化发展,建立现代向海经济体系,构建新时代向海开放发展新格局。     

Forecast Pooling for European Macroeconomic Variables*

We compare alternative forecast pooling methods and 58 forecasts from linear, time‐varying and non‐linear models, using a very large dataset of about 500 macroeconomic variables for the countries in the European Monetary Union. On average, combination methods work well but single non‐linear models can outperform them for several series. The performance of pooled forecasts, and of non‐linear models, improves when focusing on a subset of unstable series, but the gains are minor. Finally, on average over the EMU countries, the pooled forecasts behave well for industrial production growth, unemployment and inflation, but they are often beaten by non‐linear models for each country and variable.     

供应链环境下的可维修备件共享库存和集中维修模式

对于资产密集的流程式生产企业而言,设备库存管理和设备维修管理是企业管理的重要工作。传统上企业分散管理和维修的方式通常会导致高库存成本和低服务率的同时存在。本文研究同一区域同类企业同类备件的库存共享和集中维修模式,针对不同企业和同一集团下的不同工厂提出了相适应的共享库存管理模式。     

韩国新村运动对我国西部新农村建设的启示

"三农问题"一直是我们党和国家最为关注的问题,特别是我国西部农村的发展缓慢已成为我国现代化建设的突出问题。为此,党和国家适时提出了建设社会主义新农村的战略目标。本文力图通过介绍韩国新村运动的背景、发展过程及成绩等方面,以期对我国正在进行的社会主义新农村建设有一定启示。     

Pooling data for the analysis of dynamic marketing systems

Vector autoregressive (VAR) models have become popular in marketing literature for analyzing the behavior of competitive marketing systems. One drawback of these models is that the number of parameters can become very large, potentially leading to estimation problems. Pooling data for multiple cross-sectional units (stores) can partly alleviate these problems. An important issue in such models is how heterogeneity among cross-sectional units is accounted for. We investigate the performance of several pooling approaches that accommodate different levels of cross-sectional heterogeneity in a simulation study and in an empirical application. Our results show that the random coefficients modeling approach is an overall good choice when the estimated VAR model is used for out-of-sample forecasting only. When the estimated model is used to compute Impulse Response Functions, we conclude that one should select a modeling approach that matches the level of heterogeneity in the data.     

Pooling forecasts in linear rational expectations models

Estimating linear rational expectations models in a limited-information setting requires replacing the expectations of future, endogenous variables either with instrumented, actual values or with forecast survey data. Applying the method of Gottfries and Persson [Empirical examinations of the information sets of economic agents. Quarterly Journal of Economics 103, 251–259], I show how to augment these methods with actual, future values of the endogenous variables to improve statistical efficiency. The method is illustrated with an application to the US hybrid new Keynesian Phillips curve, where traditional, lagged instruments and the median forecast from the Survey of Professional Forecasters both appear to miss significant information used by price-setters, so that forecast pooling with actual values improves the statistical fit to inflation.     

Public Management Developments In Australia and New Zealand

The article argues that public manage-ment has undergone fundamental change, generated by developments in public choice and principal agency theories. These theoretical frames are being applied to management strategies and practices, where both competition and contracts feature significantly. The role of the state is subject to change as a result of these developments.     

浅析西部高校毕业生就业途径的新选择

西部高校毕业生的就业问题是我国研究中的热点问题之一。目前非营利组织正在成为我国社会经济发展中的一支重要力量,非营利性组织的发展可以为我国西部高校毕业生的就业提供新的方向和选择。本文针对我国西部高校毕业生就业存在的问题,分析发展非营利性组织对解决西部高校毕业生就业的必要性,并进一步提出相关的配套措施。     

土地开发整理项目新增耕地测算方法研究

本文对土地开发整理项目新增耕地测算方法进行了研究,归纳了主要土地开发整理项目实施前的新增耕地来源,分析了实施后的测算原理、方法等,并提出了相应的结论。     

珠海市西部地区土地集约利用评价与分析

2010年10月,珠海市西部地区(包括金湾区和斗门区)被纳入珠海经济特区的范围,该地区的土地集约利用是关系到珠海市未来土地利用的空间潜力和综合效益的重要问题。通过构建土地利用的指标体系,对珠海市西部地区的土地集约利用现状进行评价和分析,并以此提出提高土地集约利用的相关配套措施。     

On Pooling of Data and Its Relative Efficiency

Pooling of data is often carried out to protect privacy or to save cost, with the claimed advantage that it does not lead to much loss of efficiency. We argue that this does not give the complete picture as the estimation of different parameters is affected to different degrees by pooling. We establish a ladder of efficiency loss for estimating the mean, variance, skewness and kurtosis, and more generally multivariate joint cumulants, in powers of the pool size. The asymptotic efficiency of the pooled data non‐parametric/parametric maximum likelihood estimator relative to the corresponding unpooled data estimator is reduced by a factor equal to the pool size whenever the order of the cumulant to be estimated is increased by one. The implications of this result are demonstrated in case–control genetic association studies with interactions between genes. Our findings provide a guideline for the discriminate use of data pooling in practice and the assessment of its relative efficiency. As exact maximum likelihood estimates are difficult to obtain if the pool size is large, we address briefly how to obtain computationally efficient estimates from pooled data and suggest Gaussian estimation and non‐parametric maximum likelihood as two feasible methods.     

托盘共用系统信息平台解决方案研究

托盘是提高物流效率、保证运输安全的载具,建立托盘共用系统信息平台能显著提高物流系统的效率。平台由一个线上公共信息平台和一组线下服务站业务系统组成。文章首先对托盘共用系统信息平台进行定位,在此基础上分析其服务模式及业务流程,进而研究平台的功能架构和系统架构。为托盘共用系统信息平台提出了可行的解决方案。     

探索建立面向新型城镇化的国土空间分类体系

国土空间是城镇化的载体与利用对象,国土空间分类往往反映着国土空间利用的目标与意图。中共"十八大"以来,我国提出要走新型城镇化道路,对国土空间的合理利用提出新要求。首先回顾并解读了我国不同时期、不同部门的国土空间分类标准,然后结合新时期城镇化的发展要求,对优化国土空间开发格局的关键问题进行了深入思考。在此基础上,提出了以"1套体系(国土空间分类体系)、2类管控(建设和非建设空间管控)、5类分工(城市建设空间、城镇建设空间、乡村建设空间、其他建设空间、非建设空间)、4类空间(生产空间、生活空间、生态空间、保障空间)、多种功能用途"为核心内容的国土空间分类方案,并以北京市和山东桓台县为例进行了试验,以期为新形势下国土空间的规划、建设与管理提供参考。