The roles of multiple channels in predicting website visits and purchases: Engagers versus closers

In today’s online environment, consumers and sellers interact through multiple channels such as email, search engines, banner ads, affiliate websites and comparison-shopping websites. In this paper, we investigate whether knowing the history of channels the consumer has used until a point of time is predictive of their future visit patterns and purchase conversions. We propose a model in which future visits and conversions are stochastically dependent on the channels a consumer used on their path up to a point. Salient features of our model are: (1) visits by consumers are allowed to be clustered, which enables separation of their visits into intra- and inter-session components, (2) interaction effects between channels where prior visits and conversions from channels impact future inter-session visits, intra-session visits and conversions through a latent variable reflecting the cumulative weighted inventory of prior visits, (3) each channel attracts inter-session and intra-session visits differently, (4) each channel has different association with conversion conditional on a customer’s arrival to the website through that channel, (5) each channel engages customers differently (i.e., keeps the customer alive for a next session or for a next visit within a session), (6) the channel from which there was an arrival in the previous session can have an enhanced ability to generate an arrival for the same channel in the current session (channel persistence), and (7) parsimonious specification for high dimensionality in a low-velocity, sparse-data environment. We estimate the model on easy-to-collect first-party data obtained from an online retailer selling a durable good and find that information on the identities of channels and incorporation of inter- and intra-session visits have significant predictive power for future visitation and conversion behavior. We find that some channels act as “closers” and others as “engagers”—consumers arriving through the former are more likely to make a purchase, while consumers arriving through the latter, even if they do not make a purchase, are more likely to visit again in the future or extend the current session. We also find that some channels engage customers more than others, and that there are interaction effects between the channels visited. Our estimates show that the effect of prior inventory of visits is different from the immediate prior visit, and that visit and purchase probabilities can increase or decrease based on the history of channels used. We discuss several managerial implications of the model including using the predictions of the model to aid in selecting customers for marketing actions and using the model to evaluate a policy change regarding the obscuring of channel information.     

Modeling CLV: A test of competing models in the insurance industry

Customer Lifetime Value (CLV) is one of the key metrics in marketing and is considered an important segmentation base. This paper studies the capabilities of a range of models to predict CLV in the insurance industry. The simplest models can be constructed at the customer relationship level, i.e. aggregated across all services. The more complex models focus on the individual services, paying explicit attention to cross buying, but also retention. The models build on a plethora of approaches used in the existing literature and include a status quo model, a Tobit II model, univariate and multivariate choice models, and duration models. For all models, CLV for each customer is computed for a four-year time horizon. We find that the simple models perform well. The more complex models are expected to better capture the richness of relationship development. Surprisingly, this does not lead to substantially better CLV predictions.

Customer Lifetime Value and Firm Valuation

SUMMARY

Unlike most marketing metrics, CLV provides information which is directly relevant to marketing decision makers, non-marketing executives such as CFOs, and financial analysts. This paper highlights why and how CLV is financially relevant. It explicitly compares CLV-based valuation with four finance-oriented methods (DCF, P/E ratio, customer counting, and extrapolation). We also discuss implications for marketing managers, financial executives as well as educators.     

Making customer relationship decisions: Analytics v rules of thumb

This article explores how customer management decisions are made in the leading Nordic retail banks and whether these decisions are driven by mainstream analytical approaches to customer lifetime value available through the banks' CRM systems, or by rule of thumb heuristics. The results indicate that the use of managerial heuristics is surprisingly widespread and, counter-intuitively, that rule of thumb heuristic-based decision making frequently outweighs measures such as customer lifetime value with regard to customer management decisions. The implications are considerable because if successful banks are making widespread use of heuristics, managers and academics would benefit from understanding the conditions under which heuristic decision making can be more successful than an analytic approach. This understanding, in turn, may highlight a limitation of CRM systems and point to a more flexible approach to customer management decisions in which experience-based managerial heuristics modify data from formal CRM systems.     

Approaches to the Measurement and Management of Customer Value

SUMMARY

Determining and managing customer lifetime value is one of the most important strategic objectives of companies today. This paper critically examines some of the most popular approaches traditionally used to measure the value of customers in a company's portfolio. The methods reviewed include RFM and total revenue approaches to differentiating the value of customers. Although these methods have relative advantages, they have serious drawbacks that limit the ability of managers to accurately assess customer value. An alternative model for the measurement and management of customer value is proposed.     

Choosing the Right Metrics to Maximize Profitability and Shareholder Value

There is an ever-present need for managers to justify marketing expenditures to the firm. This can only be done when we can establish a direct link between marketing metrics and future customer value and firm performance. In this article, we assess the marketing literature with regard to marketing metrics. Subsequently, we develop a framework that identifies key metrics that firms should focus on that can give a firm a better picture of how they got to where they are now and insights towards how they can continue to grow into the future. We then identify several organizational challenges that need to be addressed in order for firms to build the capabilities of collecting the right data, measuring the right metrics, and linking those metrics to customer value and firm performance. Finally, we offer guidelines for future research with regard to marketing metrics to help firms establish successful marketing strategies, measure marketing effectiveness, and justify marketing expenditures to top management.     

Customer Lifetime Value as the Basis of Customer Segmentation

SUMMARY

In this article, we examine current trends in customer life-time value and customer segmentation models and identify key issues for future research. CLV-based segmentation is a segmentation approach that groups customers into meaningful segments based upon customer lifetime value and (potentially) other factors. In the article, we discuss the extent to which CLV-based segmentation meets the criteria for effective segmentation. We also identify six areas for future research: (1) models and management of “micro-segments,” (2) using CLV-based segmentation to improve the efficiency of marketing programs, (3) the need for more dynamic CLV-based segmentation models, (4) applying CLV-based customer segmentation to new products and new customers, (5) challenges associated with implementing CLV-based segmentation, and (6) the need for new models that enable firms to segment customers by response to marketing activities and CLV at different points in the customer decision process.     

The antecedents of customer loyalty: A moderated mediation model of customer relationship management quality and brand image

This study examines the mediating role of customer relationship management (CRM) quality to better explain the effects of service evaluation variables (service quality, customer satisfaction and customer value) on customer loyalty. The study also investigates the moderating effect of brand image on these mediated relationships. The mediating role of CRM quality on the relationship between the service evaluation variables and customer loyalty is supported. Further, it is found that the indirect effect of customer satisfaction on customer loyalty via CRM quality is stronger when perceived brand image is high than when it is low. The results have implications for relationship managers, brand managers and scholars who use service evaluation and relational metrics to predict customer loyalty.     

Customer retention and price matching: The AFPs case

Understanding the long-term price matching effects on CLV is important in evaluating the effectiveness of these policies in stimulating customer retention. In industries with low brand differentiation and low customer involvement (e.g., private pension system), it can be seen that choosing a brand is based on inertia. The objective of this article is to analyze the convenience for the firm of improving customer retention, by matching the lowest price in the Chilean private pension system. Results suggest that matching the industry's price leader reduces the firm's CLV, thus diminishing firm incentives to make this marketing effort.     

The role of lifetime activity cues in customer base analysis

This paper develops the notion of lifetime activity cues in customer base analysis. The authors first discuss the impact of lifetime indicators, such as customers' conceptual response to marketing activities, and then demonstrate how such lifetime cues can be embedded into the Pareto/NBD model. The authors theoretically analyze the implication of this additional behavioral indication on the model's predictions. In an illustrative example, they aim to establish an intuitive understanding of the effects of such information. Evidence from the cellular phone industry supports the relevance of this concept: The empirical study finds a substantial improvement in predictive accuracy in two independent holdout samples. The study concludes with a discussion of the managerial relevance of the proposed approach and opportunities for further research.     

Measuring customer equity and managing the customer asset: an explanatory study in the Australian hotels

Although there are a range of conceptual and theoretical studies about customer equity (CE) measurement and management in the literature, there are few empirical studies where these two concepts are examined together. This paper focuses on the need for a more synthesised approach and addresses calls for more research into this specific area of marketing management. A conceptual framework was developed that synthesises both customer lifetime value and customer relationship management from a customer equity management (CEM) perspective. The framework was used to empirically examine how four CE strategies, together with a firm’s use of the two types of customer data (aggregated and disaggregated), impact on CEM outcomes. Data were collected from 114 hotel managers in Australia and analysed through a decision tree methodology. The results show that hotels are utilising their CE strategies for acquisition purposes more than retention purposes (customer asset management), which overall appears to satisfice more than maximise their hotel’s capacity in achieving effective CE outcomes. The study’s contribution to theory is through empirically testing a framework that combines two discrete theoretical concepts in one study to provide insights to guide future research.     

Investigating the service brand: A customer value perspective

Despite considerable interest in the nature and role of marketing using a service perspective [Vargo S., Lusch R. Evolving to a new dominant logic for marketing. J Mark 2004; 68 (1): 1-17] there is limited research about branding. Research to date tends to be qualitative [e.g., Berry L. Cultivating service brand equity. J Acad Mark Sci 2000; 28: 128-137; de Chernatony L., Segal-Horn S. The criteria for successful services brands. Eur J Mark 2003; 37 (7/8): 1095-1118] rather than quantitative. This research closes this gap by developing and testing a theory of the influence of the service brand on the customer value-loyalty process. The model includes the traditional influence of brand image plus three additional influences that more fully reflect the broader service perspective (company image, employee trust, and company trust). Using survey data of a sample of 552 airline customers, the analysis shows there is a direct influence of all the aspects of the brand on customers' perceptions of value. In addition brand image, company image and employee trust have a mediated influence on customer value through customers' perceptions of service quality. Finally the analysis shows that a service brand does not have a direct influence on customer loyalty but rather its influence is mediated through customer value. This paper concludes with a discussion of the managerial and research implications.     

The influence of customer loyalty program design on the relationship between customer motives and value perception

Despite the strong use in marketing practice, the effectiveness of loyalty programs is still heavily questioned among researchers. In our study we present an empirically tested framework that views customer loyalty programs (CLPs) with their differing designs as a moderating tool in a means-end relationship between customer motives and value. By disentangling customer value perceptions of loyalty programs we contribute to the remaining question of the efficacy of CLPs and set the road for further research. Our results support the argument that CLPs can be an effective tool and are not only something that adds to the value of a product or service, but rather creates value by itself. However, this is only the case for programs that target prevailing customer motives and hence provide a higher level of perceived value.     

Timeliness,transparency, and trust: A framework for managing online customer complaints

This article discusses several practical solutions for dealing with online customer complaints. Online complaints are inevitable; how a firm responds can make the difference. There are techniques that managers can use not only to minimize the detrimental impact of online complaints, but also to produce beneficial outcomes. Herein, we introduce our 3T framework, designed to help managers and support teams respond to online complaints in a thoughtful and measured way. We build on word-of-mouth research and several theories from marketing, service marketing, journalism, and business ethics. With so many reviews posted online every second, firms must employ best practices grounded in empirical research and solid conceptualization to deal with this important component of online customer service.     

Your receipt is in the bag: Service and temporal effects as factors of customer engagement formation during acquisition

The current study examines how customer engagement initially develops during customer acquisition. The study utilizes a factorial design with videos to represent positive/negative experiences over the course of a potential acquisition. Findings suggest a positive acquisition experience leads to positive customer engagement. Findings also reflect a strong recency effect in that the last interaction of the service encounter provides the strongest impact on customer engagement. As a result, analysis leads to the recommendation that managers focus more on specific events and less on a cumulative impact in order to develop positive customer engagement during acquisition.     

Effects of Extrinsic Attributes on Perceived Quality,Customer Value,and Behavioral Intentions in B2B Settings: A Comparison Across Goods and Service Industries

ABSTRACT

The traditional formulation of customer value is a trade off of benefits and sacrifices, with intrinsic quality typically being the primary benefit, and price typically being the primary sacrifice. While additional sacrifices have been proposed in the literature (e.g., time and effort), we explore three additional benefits, the extrinsic attributes of industry leadership, innovation, and customer focus and their effects on a hierarchical quality-value-intention system. Data gathered from two distinct business-to-business domains, one goods and one services, showed that extrinsic attributes impacted elements of the quality-value-intention system. It was also found that quality and customer focus (an extrinsic attribute) differed in their effects across goods and services contexts. Managerial implications are discussed for creating customer perceived value in goods and services industries.     

The effects of loyalty programs on customer lifetime duration and share of wallet

In the retailing sector, consumers typically patronize multiple outlets, which confronts these outlets with an important issue: determining how to gain a greater part of consumer expenditures. One potential avenue is to increase consumer lifetime duration and repeat purchases through loyalty cards. This research, using BehaviorScan single-source panel data, examines the impact of loyalty programs on customer lifetime duration in grocery stores. The findings suggest that loyalty schemes have positive effects on customer lifetimes and share of consumer expenditures. However, multiple loyalty card memberships of geographically close retailers reduce lifetime duration. Furthermore, the higher the share of consumer expenditures in a store, the longer the lifetime duration will be.     

A Customer Value Perspective in the Nonprofit Marketing Context: Expanding the Means-End Chain for Multiple Stakeholders

ABSTRACT

Very little of the current research on nonprofit marketing adopts a customer value perspective. This paper will (1) briefly outline the special customer value challenges faced by nonprofit organizations, such as multiple stakeholders and a lack of marketing orientation; (2) describe the innovative customer value approach developed by Woodruff and Gardial (1996); and (3) offer a model applying the Wood-ruff/Gardial approach in the NPO context, including research propositions.     

Feel the VIBE: Examining value-in-the-brand-page-experience and its impact on satisfaction and customer engagement behaviours in mobile social media

A critical issue for marketing managers is how best to orchestrate branded social media consumption experiences via mobile applications. This is important because in a mobile first world, these experiences are perceived to be valuable to consumers which in turn facilitate positive consumer behaviour toward the brand. So far, marketing literature offering managerial guidance on this issue remains limited. To this end, this study investigates for the first-time consumer perceptions of ‘Value-In-The-Brand-Page-Experience’ (VIBE), a multidimensional construct, in an emerging market setting of China. China represents an appropriate contextual condition to study given its high mobile penetration and its integration within consumer's lifestyle. This study further examines the impact of VIBE on customer satisfaction and customer engagement behaviours toward the brand via a survey of 714 Chinese consumers. The results substantiate the VIBE framework which contributes to the sparse conceptual development of value perceptions in mobile social media. Furthermore, it confirms the existence of a value–satisfaction–customer engagement behaviour chain. The findings are managerially relevant and focus on leveraging the components of VIBE. These components act as key mechanisms for unlocking customer satisfaction and customer engagement behaviours for brands in the domain of mobile social media.