中国旅游产业对国民经济的贡献研究

文章采用旅游增加值剥离测算法估算2000～2008年中国大陆31个省级单位的旅游产业增加值,并测量旅游产业增加值对国民经济的贡献率和拉动幅度,旨在分析旅游产业在国民经济中的地位。结论有三:第一,我国旅游产业以高于国内生产总值的增长速度快速成长,波动较大且存在地区差异;第二,旅游产业的发展与国民经济的整体发展水平密切相关,在以旅游产业作为先导产业的省份中,旅游产业对国民经济的拉动作用较为显著;第三,我国大部分地区的旅游产业对GDP贡献率主要集中在3%～8%,而拉动系数则保持在0.5至1.5个百分点之间。     

旅游统计科学性与测算的可比性

引言 快速发展的中国旅游产业,被赋予了在经济转型期稳增长调节构惠民生新支点的重大使命.无论是政府、学界还是企业,都比以往更需要量化这一产业发展的进程与成就,因此,作为旅游数据生产的担当——旅游统计被高度关注.仅2015年,从国家层面来看,国家统计局出台了《国家旅游及相关产业统计分类(2015)》②、发布了2014年全国旅游及相关产业增加值占国内生产总值的比重③,国家旅游局发布了2014年全国旅游业对GDP的综合贡献占GDP总量的比重④.省区市层面也纷纷进行相关测算.如何正确理解这些测算指标及其数据,值得深入研究,归纳起来主要涉及旅游统计的科学性及测算的可比性问题.     

浅谈国家统计局和国家旅游局两组旅游统计数字

一、问题的提出 2015年年底,国家统计局首次公布了2014年全国旅游及相关产业增加值2.7524万亿元,比上年增长11.5％,比同期国内生产总值(GDP)增速高3.3个百分点,比同期第三产业增加值增速高0.6个百分点,占GDP的比重为4.33％,比上年提高0.13个百分点.仅仅几天后,国家旅游局信息中心发布了《2014年中国旅游统计公报》:2014年实现旅游业总收入3.73万亿元人民币;全年旅游业对GDP的综合贡献率为6.61万亿元,占GDP总量的10.39％.     

基于投入产出表和社会核算矩阵的2002年江苏旅游乘数的比较研究

本文在界定投入产出乘数、SAM乘数的概念和方法、对旅游乘数分析与旅游活动对地区经济贡献研究进行概述的基础上,首先构建了2002年27部门江苏投入产出表,其次,构建了包括38个内生账户、4个外生账户的2002年江苏旅游细化社会核算矩阵.最后,本文基于投入产出开模型、局部闭模型和SAM分别计算了产业的产出乘数、居民收入乘数、就业乘数和增加值乘数.数据显示,2002年江苏旅游产出乘数分别为2.2517、2.8896、3.8758,旅游就业乘数分别为0.1694、0.1900、0.2157,旅游居民收入乘数分别为0.5805、0.6927和0.8433,旅游增加值乘数分别为1、1.2189、1.5737.与其他产业相比.江苏旅游的产出乘数、居民收入乘数、就业乘数和增加值乘数较大.     

旅游业及其产业地位再认识

本文主要针对旅游业及其产业地位的几个基本问题进行了讨论,这些问题包括对旅游业的界定、旅游业对GDP的直接贡献、旅游业的产业关联、出境旅游的发展与旅游业产业地位、旅游业产业地位结构体系等.     

旅游卫星账户的模型研究——以大连旅游业为例

由于需要大量的人力、财力和物力的投入,在国际统一框架模式下的旅游卫星账户(TSA)编制还是有一定的难度,因此,在一定程度上限制了该方法的普及应用.本文提出一种简化的TSA编制方法,并给出数学模型,它采用3种途径获得建模数据:①旅游消费数据采用问卷抽样调查;②对确定性旅游供给信息采纳政府部门公布的统计年鉴和经济普查年鉴等作加权折算;③对不确定信息采用专家访谈和所属部门调研.该方法更具有普遍应用意义,构建的数学模型便于TSA信息的计算机处理.通过对大连2005年TSA的核算结果,表明该方法是可行的,并得到旅游增加值对地区GDP的贡献为3.9%.     

“自由行”政策对澳门经济影响的评价

澳门发展定位于建设世界旅游休闲中心,游客流量是支撑澳门经济发展的重要因素,“自由行”政策给澳门博彩旅游业带来了巨大的客流量.研究旨在考察“自由行”政策对澳门经济发展的影响与贡献程度.在对国内外相关研究文献和“自由行”政策效应研究观点进行评述的基础上,探讨了澳门博彩旅游业经济利益的估算方法,引入“旅游比率”的概念,以直接增加值和直接就业量作为利益衡量标准,将入澳旅游的直接利益细分为源自自由行游客、内地非自由行游客、非内地游客的利益,并从批发零售业、酒店业、餐饮业、博彩娱乐业以及其他相关行业几个细分行业进行考察,评价了各类游客消费对旅游相关行业的直接增加值和直接就业量.以2011年和2012年澳门旅游附属账户为基础数据的计量分析表明,2012年自由行游客给澳门经济带来了171.25亿澳门元的直接增加值和25 526个直接就业量,分别占澳门GDP的7.80％和澳门总就业人数的7.44％.与其他类型的游客相比,自由行游客在零售和博彩娱乐两个行业具有更显著的直接增加值,而酒店业、餐饮业等行业的直接增加值相对偏低;与非内地游客相比,自由行游客和内地非自由行游客每单位消费在澳门产生的直接就业量偏低;“自由行”政策对澳门经济的影响被高估.这些特征主要由澳门较为特殊的旅游产业结构和自由行游客在现阶段消费倾向所决定的.“自由行”作为一项符合经济自由化和贸易便利化的政策安排,对该政策的调控要基于事实分析和科学判断.在澳门建设世界旅游休闲中心的目标定位下,澳门旅游业应加快非博彩娱乐业的发展,并提高旅游相关产业的附加值,重视旅游客源市场的多元化,实现澳门经济的可持续发展.     

信息化对旅游产业增长的贡献——基于面板数据分位数回归的分析

文章利用2001-2013年的省际面板数据,采用协整检验和分位数回归模型等方法分析信息化对旅游产业增长的贡献.实证研究结果表明:(1)多数情况下,在旅游产业的不同增长水平,信息化对旅游产业增长的贡献基本稳定在较高的水平,并且大于资本和劳动力的贡献,充分体现了旅游产业增长对信息化的强烈依赖.随着旅游产业增长水平的提升,旅游产业增长会越来越依赖信息化和资本,旅游产业将逐渐从信息和劳动力密集型产业转型为信息和资本密集型产业.(2)信息化对旅游产业增长的贡献随着旅游产业增长水平的提升而小幅下降.对第二个结论,文章从旅游产业增长的不均衡性和旅游产业竞争这两个角度给出了解释.     

基于大数据的旅游文化创新

旅游产业作为我省乃至全国第三产业中的新生力军,不仅成为新的经济增长点,而且在全省乃至全国GDP总额的贡献比例异军突起,逐年递增。如何发展旅游业,如何将旅游与文化产业结合,获得更多游客的关注与青睐,成为政府以及旅游投资人们所关注的新问题与新焦点。本文拟采用大数据技术,对旅游文化产业进行分析与整合,从而使已有的旅游资源得到充分的利用,并在此基础上可以为新的旅游资源开发提供导向。     

旅游消费增长对拉动国民消费的贡献:以浙江为例

本文引入旅游消费倾向率、结构指数和消费弹性3个新概念,采用2002～2009年调查数据,分析了浙江省旅游消费结构变化及其对国民消费的贡献.结果发现,浙江省国内旅游消费和结构指数呈现"双向增长",人均旅游购物、旅游交通、餐饮业消费倾向率为正趋向;而入境旅游消费和结构指数"前升后降",旅游交通和住宿费倾向率为正趋向值,而人均旅游购物倾向率大幅度下降.最后,以旅游餐饮、旅游购物和旅游总收入占全社会餐饮业、批发零售业和GDP的比率及弹性系数变化,分析了旅游消费增长对拉动国民消费的贡献和作用.     

中国旅游卫星账户2007延长表编算研究

旅游宏观统计积弱,致使旅游业既难以"摸清自身家底",也难以形成明确的产业"身份"进入国民经济产业研究的话语体系,甚至在产业规模测定的实践和理论研究当中还存在明显误区,造成旅游经济的感性认识有余,而理性的量化支撑不足。为此,文章应用旅游卫星账户和投入产出理论,结合入境旅游和国内旅游统计调查实际,构建了一套符合国际统计核算标准和旅游卫星账户框架要求的旅游业增加值算法流程,测算得出2007年我国旅游业增加值占国民经济的比重约为2.67%,与美国、加拿大等国家的测算结果相近。文章所构架的算法体系,有助于更加客观和准确地了解旅游业在国民经济中的地位,更为借助可计算一般均衡、投入产出价格影响等模型测算旅游业完全经济影响,提供了一个更加精确和有效的基础性框架。     

Tourist holiday options: timeshare versus competition

The timeshare industry's success has been limited by an unenthusiastic reception from consumers, governments, investors, and the media. The everincreasing world population, increasing GDP, and improved communications resulting from the technological revolution, all indicate an expanding tourism market. Although timeshare's market share is currently increasing more rapidly than most other tourism sectors, to achieve its full growth potential the industry must improve its imagemarketing and products must be tailored to the requirements of consumers. Timeshare must demonstrate a significant social and economic contribution in order to obtain publicsector support and government incentives made available to traditional tourism industry.     

城市旅游业CO_2排放态势及旅游业低碳化发展模式

城市是旅游活动CO2排放的主要集中地。基于旅游者消费视角,文章以深圳市为例,对其2001~2011年旅游业碳足迹态势进行分析。结合脱钩理论和Kaya恒等式,以2011年为基期,模拟深圳市未来旅游业CO2排放量。研究表明:(1)深圳市近11年旅游业能源消费及CO2排放量呈逐步上升趋势;(2)旅游业能源消耗及CO2排放的变化规律与旅游业GDP、游客接待总量有着密切关系;(3)A模式惯性情景下2020年CO2排放将达到1578万t,为基期的1.92倍,与国家的承诺及旅游局的目标背道而驰;(4)B模式绝对脱钩情景下CO2排放增长为零,这是非常理想的模式,但"反增长计划"和"能源生产效率改进"两条道路都走不通;(5)C模式相对脱钩情景下CO2排放是基期的1.38倍,旅游业在维持适宜增长的同时能源消耗和CO2排放状况得到明显改善,C模式是既考虑发展权益又承担大国责任的适宜发展模式。文章最后指出,C模式的实现需要旅游产业发展战略由供给导向向需要导向转型,并采取能源替代、效率改进、技术研发、规制治理和社会创新等综合路径。     

Supplementary Services as a Differentiation Strategy

Abstract

Although some studies have been done on supplementary services in the service industry, very little has been explicitly done in the travel and tourism industry. This paper focuses on adding value to core services in the travel and tourism industry, which Lovelock (1996) referred to as “supplementary services.” Supplementary services can be used as differentiation points in a highly competitive industry such as tourism. Some researchers have developed models in an effort to demonstrate how supplementary services can enhance the core services. Shostack (1977) and Lovelock (1996) have developed models specifically designed for the service industry. This research is based on Lovelock's (1996) “Flower of Service” model, focussing on the “Hospitality: Taking Care of the Customer” cluster. This paper contends that supplementary services add value to core services, which gives firms competitive advantage over their competition. In the dynamic and challenging environment of the travel and tourism industry, operators need to differentiate themselves in order to be successful and continue to offer superior performance. One of the strategies to differentiate from the competition is to enhance the core services with supplementary services. A major Midwestern City was selected to test Lovelock's model. Two conventions held in mid-February were chosen for this study. Attendees of the first convention were provided specially trained greeters at selected key locations. The second convention that was held the following week did not have any greeters. Attendees of both the conventions were asked to complete a one page pre-tested questionnaire. They were to rate the host-city on several criteria including overall satisfaction, meeting their expectations, and satisfaction with the hospitality and non-hospitality services. Obtained findings suggest that attendees who were exposed to greeters rated the host-city more favorably in overall impression, and quality of hospitality services, and non-hospitality services, while the convention attendees that were not exposed rated the host-city less favorably. Based on the results from this study, firms in the travel and tourism industry, especially the convention centers, may want to consider providing their customers with supplementary services such as greeters as a differentiation strategy.     

中国出境旅游高速增长的负面影响探析

旅游业是相当于我国GDP近6%的重要产业.国际旅游是旅游者的跨国界流动,是旅游者的消费能力从客源国转移到东道国的释放,被称为无形贸易和"风景资源的就地出口".20世纪90年代以前我国的国际旅游以入境旅游为主要形式,它曾是我国创汇的重要渠道."九五"以来,我国出境旅游持续快速发展.事实上,出境旅游的超高速增长正使我国旅游业面临由创汇产业向耗汇产业的过渡.本文拟从经济社会的宏观角度,将当前我国旅游业的发展看成是我国特定经济社会条件下的产物,从这个角度分析出境旅游的超常发展是否在"适度"的范围,探讨出境旅游发展对宏观经济、国际收支平衡和和谐社会的影响;并基于这种形势判断和负面影响分析,提出相应的政策调控构想.     

Tourism's contribution to the economy of Kenya

Between 1963 and 1980, tourism was one of the top three domestic exports of Kenya, along with coffee and tea. In evaluating an export industry, its linkages with other sectors of the economy, its import content, and its role as a source of domestic income and employment should be considered. This paper attempts such an evaluation of Kenya's tourist industry. Between 1968 and 1976, linkages between the tourism sector and domestic agriculture and food processing were improved. The tourist industry was not particularly import intensive in terms of intermediate goods when compared to the economy as a whole. Employment in and wages paid by the tourist industry were below what is expected when compared to tourism's share of GDP.     

Tourism and the Australian economy

Consideration of the economic significance of tourism requires synthesis of a discrete tourism ‘industry’ from selected sectors of the economy and identification of its component activities which may then be used to relate expenditure by tourists, sectorally and spatially, to other elements in the economy. This approach is applied to create a profile of the Australian tourism industry at a national level and shows that tourism contributes a significant proportion to GDP and employs at least 3% of the labour force. This is comparable with the UK and other developed countries.     

Modelling Site Location Decisions in Tourism

Site location analysis and retail location strategy can be considered critical factors and integral elements of an effective organizational business plan in the tourism industry. This paper focuses on two different approaches that can be applied to site location analysis and selection in tourism: spreadsheet models and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Rule Based Expert Systems are also discussed. The LOCAT model (a spreadsheet-based algebraic approach) attempts to measure the total attractiveness index of a particular site location on the basis of calculating the impact of components (degrree of accessibility, total catchment population, level of tourist product uniqueness, and probability of tourist patronization). A practical example testing the degree of applicability of the model is also introduced. The Analytic Hierarchy Process provides a general structure capable of representing a wide range of decision problems. It is especially effective when dealing within complex multivariate decisions and with variables which are difficult to quantify.