The effect of aid on growth: evidence from a Quasi-experiment

The literature on aid and growth has not found a convincing instrumental variable to identify the causal effects of aid. This paper exploits an instrumental variable based on the fact that, since 1987, eligibility for aid from the International Development Association (IDA) has been based partly on whether or not a country is below a certain threshold of per capita income. The paper finds evidence that other donors tend to reinforce rather than compensate for reductions in IDA aid following threshold crossings. Overall, aid as a share of gross national income (GNI) drops about 59 % on average after countries cross the threshold. Focusing on the 35 countries that have crossed the income threshold from below between 1987 and 2010, a positive, statistically significant, and economically sizable effect of aid on growth is found. A 1 percentage point increase in the aid to GNI ratio from the sample mean raises annual real per capita growth in gross domestic product by approximately 0.35 percentage points.     

Renewable energy and unemployment: A general equilibrium analysis

Using a three-sector general equilibrium model, the impact of renewable electricity support policies on the rate of equilibrium unemployment is analyzed. In a simple two-factor version of the model, the paper shows analytically that renewable electricity support policies lead to an increase in the rate of unemployment. A numerical analysis is conducted with an expanded three-factor model. In this version, most scenarios analyzed also lead to an increase in equilibrium unemployment. However, the paper identifies conditions in which renewable energy support policies can decrease the rate of equilibrium unemployment. In particular, when the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor is low, when capital is not mobile internationally, and when the labor intensity of renewable generation is high relative to conventional generation, renewable electricity support policies may reduce the rate of equilibrium unemployment. The model is parameterized to represent the US economy, such that the magnitudes of quantities can be observed. Although there is some variation in the results depending on parameters, the findings suggest in general that reducing electricity sector emissions by 10% through renewable electricity support policies is likely to increase the equilibrium unemployment rate by about 0.1–0.3 percentage points.     

Renewable energy and unemployment: A general equilibrium analysis

Using a three-sector general equilibrium model, the impact of renewable electricity support policies on the rate of equilibrium unemployment is analyzed. In a simple two-factor version of the model, the paper shows analytically that renewable electricity support policies lead to an increase in the rate of unemployment. A numerical analysis is conducted with an expanded three-factor model. In this version, most scenarios analyzed also lead to an increase in equilibrium unemployment. However, the paper identifies conditions in which renewable energy support policies can decrease the rate of equilibrium unemployment. In particular, when the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor is low, when capital is not mobile internationally, and when the labor intensity of renewable generation is high relative to conventional generation, renewable electricity support policies may reduce the rate of equilibrium unemployment. The model is parameterized to represent the US economy, such that the magnitudes of quantities can be observed. Although there is some variation in the results depending on parameters, the findings suggest in general that reducing electricity sector emissions by 10% through renewable electricity support policies is likely to increase the equilibrium unemployment rate by about 0.1–0.3 percentage points.     

Optimal renewable-energy promotion: Capacity subsidies vs. generation subsidies

We derive optimal subsidization of renewable energies in electricity markets. The analysis takes into account that capacity investment must be chosen under uncertainty about demand conditions and capacity availability, and that capacity as well as electricity generation may be sources of externalities. The main result is that generation subsidies should correspond to externalities of electricity generation (e.g., greenhouse gas reductions), and investment subsidies should correspond to externalities of capacity (e.g., learning spillovers). If only capacity externalities exist, then electricity generation should not be subsidized at all. Our results suggest that some of the most popular promotion instruments cause welfare losses. We demonstrate such welfare losses with data from the German electricity market.     

The effects of wind generation capacity on electricity prices and generation costs: a Monte Carlo analysis

We use Monte Carlo analysis to examine the potential of increased renewable generation to provide a hedge against variability in energy prices and costs. Fuel costs, electricity demand and wind generation are allowed to vary and a unit commitment and economic dispatch algorithm is employed to produce cost-minimizing generation schedules under different levels of installed wind capacity. Increased wind capacity reduces the mean and the variance of production costs but only the variance of electricity prices. Wind generators see their market revenues increase while consumer payments and fossil generator profits do not considerably vary as wind capacity increases. Risk aversion is captured by considering the conditional value-at-risk for both consumers and producers. The optimal level of wind generation increases as risk aversion increases due to the potential of wind to act as a hedge against very high electricity prices in high fuel price scenarios.     

What’s powering wind? The effect of the U.S. state renewable energy policies on wind capacity (1994–2012)

As of 2012, 29 states had enacted a Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS), while 37 states had at least one utility offering Green Power Purchasing (GPP) to their customers. The goal of both policies is to promote the adoption of clean, renewable energy. This article examines the influence of these polices on wind capacity across the United States from 1994–2012, a period of significant expansion of the wind generation market. The analysis focuses on wind because as compared with other modern renewable energy sources, wind is the only renewable energy source to make significant inroads into the U.S. electricity generation market. My findings indicate that while there have been significant increases in commercial scale wind generation capacity, neither RPS nor GPP programmes had a significant influence on within state wind capacity additions.     

Incentive regulation,service quality,and standards in U.S. electricity distribution

The widespread use of incentive regulation in telecom, electricity, and other industries in the U.S. and elsewhere has raised questions about its possible adverse effect on the quality of service. This paper examines U.S. electricity distribution utilities in the years 1993–1999, several of which were subject to incentive regulation. Controlling for other possible influences, including possible endogeneity of the regulatory regime, the data and model indicate that incentive regulation is indeed associated with significantly longer duration of service outages, although not necessarily more frequent outages. Importantly, this quality reduction is offset in cases where regulation incorporates service quality standards. We also examine the causal chain connecting incentive regulation, cost expenditures, and service quality. We conclude that careful design of quality standards can allow incentive regulation to achieve cost savings without quality degradation.     

The Hidden Costs of Wind Generation in a Thermal Power System: What Cost?

New renewable energy generation in Australia is unambiguously more expensive than thermal plant, at least when comparing direct costs. The federal government claims the 20 per cent renewable energy target will increase electricity tariffs by 4 per cent. Apart from the direct costs, critics of renewables cite additional ‘hidden costs’ arising from the intermittency of wind and the subsequent causation of ‘back‐up plant’ for system security. South Australia, where wind's market share now exceeds 17 per cent, provides a valuable case study to analyse ‘hidden costs’. The evidence is that hidden costs are trivial and the government's claim appears accurate.     

Helping "light green" consumers walk the talk: Results of a behavioural intervention survey in the Swiss electricity market

While many consumer surveys show very positive attitudes towards renewable energy, the share of consumers actually purchasing green electricity is still in the single-digit percent range in most countries. What can be done to help consumers with positive attitudes towards green electricity to “walk the talk”, i.e. to behave consistently with their preferences? We developed a psychological model based on the theory of planned behaviour (TPB) to design a large-scale behavioural intervention survey with 1163 Swiss electricity consumers. Our results show that by providing information targeted at the key factors influencing the intention to purchase green electricity, namely attitudes towards purchase, social norms and perceived behavioural control, a significant increase in green electricity market share can be achieved. Our results show that price is not the only barrier to purchasing green electricity, and that information to increase the perceived benefit of buying green electricity as well as targeted communication to overcome inertia among retail electricity consumers are equally important factors.     

英国可再生能源产业发展现状

英国在发展可再生能源方面具有良好的自然条件,特别在离岸风能及波浪能和潮汐能方面。但英国在开发这一潜力方面做得并不够好,目前,英国来自可再生能源的发电量占其全部用电需求的不足5％,远远落后于世界上一些先进国家。这其中有多方面的原因,如英国的入网电价相对便宜（与欧洲其他国家相比）,政府对可再生能源行业的财政补贴较少,以及在批准可再生能源项目方面遇到的延误和障碍较多等等。但是,随着近些年一系列鼓励政策和措施的出台,英国在可再生能源方面会有一个较为光明的前景,从而实现它确保能源安全及减少温室气体排放的双重目标。     

佛得角圣文森特岛能源发展概况、问题与建议

佛得角能源矿产资源缺乏,电力生产主要依赖进口化石能源进行热力发电,尽管可再生能源较为丰富,但尚未充分开发利用。通过对佛得角能源和电力市场的全面考察,统筹考虑圣文森特岛现有电力装机规模、电力生产与消费形势、可再生能源发展潜力,提出圣文森特岛应调整优化能源结构,提高可再生能源在能源供给中的比例;升级改造配电网,推进智能电网建设;鼓励私营业主与企业参与电力设施投资,逐步建立适应 IPP电力投资的政策框架。     

The Impact of Private Interest Contributions on RPS Adoption

In the last two decades, many U.S. states introduced policies to promote electricity generation from renewable energy sources (RES‐E). Renewable portfolio standards (RPS) are considered to be the key RES‐E policy tool to date. This article tackles the question on why some state legislators were front‐running the trend of RPS implementation whereas others adopted policies just recently, and why others have not adopted them at all. We compile data on financial contributions of conventional energy interest groups (CEI) and renewable energy interest groups (REI) to state‐level policy‐makers between 1998 and 2010. By means of hazard and tobit regressions, we test the effect of these financial contributions on the probability of RPS adoption and on RPS stringency. The article provides evidence in favor of interest group theory. First, CEI have donated more to state‐level legislators affiliated with the Republican Party than to Democrats while contributions from REI went largely to the latter. Second, there are statistically significant links between the likelihood of RPS adoption and private interest contributions. Contributions from CEI have a negative effect on the likelihood of RPS adoption whereas REI contributions have a positive effect.     

Deciphering the motives behind corporate social responsibility (CSR) using managerial ownership: evidence from heteroskedastic identification

Motivated by agency theory, we investigate the effect of managerial ownership on CSR engagement. Exploiting a novel identification strategy and using a large U.S. sample of over 14,000 observations across 18 years, we find that higher managerial ownership diminishes CSR engagement significantly. As managers own a larger share of equity, they bear greater costs of CSR, leading to a reduction in CSR engagement. Further analysis, however, shows that not all CSR activities are motivated by agency problems. In particular, the CSR activities related to human rights and products appear to promote shareholders’ wealth. The results of this study are important as they show that there can be different motives behind different CSR activities. We contribute to the literature by shedding light on the motives behind CSR investments using a novel identification strategy.     

How may a carbon tax transform Australian electricity industry? A CGE analysis

The carbon tax policy proposed by Australian government has triggered deep concerns about the high electricity prices facing households and the sustainability of electricity industry. By employing a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and an environmentally extended Social Accounting Matrix (SAM), this article simulates the effect of Australian carbon tax on the electricity industry. The modelling results show that the wholesale electricity prices indeed increase by about 90%, but the retailer prices only increase by 25%. The coal-fired electricity generators will reduce their output by 8% (for black-coal) to 18% (for brown-coal), but the profitability of the industry will drop dramatically. On the other hand, generators using oil, gas or renewable resources, will increase their output significantly and enjoy a handsome profit. Through the price, cost and profitability mechanisms, the carbon tax will transfer the Australian electricity generation to a low emission industry in the long term.     

Market Power and Welfare in Electricity Markets Employing Tradable Green Certificate Systems

Within the last 25 years, liberalization (deregulation) of electricity markets around the world has been undertaken with the goal of replacing long-standing monopoly rights with fully competitive markets. In addition, many nations have begun employing “tradable green certificate” systems to promote electricity generation from renewable (“green”) energy sources (wind, solar, biomass, hydroelectric, etc.), with the primary objective of mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel (“black”) producers. In this paper, we examine some welfare implications of the use of green certificate systems in electricity markets under alternative market structures. We demonstrate that under a wide variety of scenarios, an oligopolistic market structure may perform better in terms of welfare than a competitive market structure. We also demonstrate that there will typically be an optimal level of market power summarized by a conjectural variations parameter that depends on the cost structure of both green and black firms. Our model provides insights into the policy challenge of electricity market design and suggests an approach that could be applied in a more general model.     

Investment and employment from large-scale photovoltaics up to 2050

Investments in renewable energy were at US$211 billion in 2010 and developing economies overtook developed ones for the first time in terms of new financial investments in renewable energy. Photovoltaics for generation of electricity from sunlight has the highest growth rate among the competing forms of renewable energy and has now begun to achieve grid parity in some regions. If these trends of investments continue, solar energy will play a major economic role. We analyze these developments and assess the ensuing amounts of investment and employment for a range of sizes of the sector of solar energy. We find that by 2050 electricity from photovoltaics could cover up to 90% of total global energy demand, with a then global capital investment in our main scenario in photovoltaic manufacturing capacity at 500 billion US$211 billion in 2010 and developing economies overtook developed ones for the first time in terms of new financial investments in renewable energy. Photovoltaics for generation of electricity from sunlight has the highest growth rate among the competing forms of renewable energy and has now begun to achieve grid parity in some regions. If these trends of investments continue, solar energy will play a major economic role. We analyze these developments and assess the ensuing amounts of investment and employment for a range of sizes of the sector of solar energy. We find that by 2050 electricity from photovoltaics could cover up to 90% of total global energy demand, with a then global capital investment in our main scenario in photovoltaic manufacturing capacity at 500 billion US₂₀₁₀ by around 2030 and 1,500 billion by 2050. Employment in photovoltaic manufacturing is predicted to rise to 6 million by 2050. Sensitivity analysis with respect to the core parameters of assumptions is supplied.     

Negative price spikes at power markets: the role of energy policy

In Germany, substantial drops in wholesale power prices have become a regular phenomenon. While such price drops have far-reaching implications for the functioning of the power market, their underlying determinants remain poorly understood. To fill this gap, we propose a Markov regime-switching model to investigate low-price events at the European Power Exchange. Our analysis focuses on the role of energy policies that promote renewable energies and have led to significant reductions of nuclear capacities after the Fukushima accident. We find that high electricity infeed from renewable sources increases negative price spike probabilities, while the decommissioning of nuclear plants under the Nuclear Moratorium had an opposing effect. Simulations of market outcomes under different energy policies indicate that reaching ambitious renewable energy targets increases the frequency of low-price events and compromises the financial viability of conventional generation units, while a nuclear phase-out or an increase in storage capacities mitigates these effects.     

The Relationship Between Education and Adult Mortality in the United States

Prior research has uncovered a large and positive correlation between education and health. This paper examines whether education has a causal impact on health. I follow synthetic cohorts using successive U.S. censuses to estimate the impact of educational attainment on mortality rates. I use compulsory education laws from 1915 to 1939 as instruments for education. The results suggest that education has a causal impact on mortality, and that this effect is perhaps larger than has been previously estimated in the literature.     

THE SOCIAL EFFICIENCY OF INSTRUMENTS FOR THE PROMOTION OF RENEWABLE ENERGIES IN THE LIBERALISED POWER INDUSTRY

ABSTRACT ** :  This paper compares the social efficiency of the two main regulatory instruments used to promote renewable energy sources in electricity generation (RES-E), taking into consideration their role in promoting the preservation of the climate. They are based on a purchase obligation and act either by price (feed-in tariffs) or by quantity (RES-E quotas). In their reference design, the instruments show different performances in several dimensions: market incentives intensity, control of the cost for consumers, safeguards of RES-E investments, and conformity with the new market regime of the electricity industry. The comparison shows that neither instrument offers an optimal solution in each of these dimensions. In particular, the intrinsic qualities of the quotas instrument that are put forward to mandate its adoption by the EU members are overestimated. A government will thus select an instrument in accordance with the relative importance of its objectives: environmental policy versus cost control by market pressure.     

Trade openness and government size of small developing countries

This paper examines the causal effect that trade openness has on government size in small developing countries (SDCs). We use the construction of the trade cost variables based on Baltic Dry Index in primary goods as instruments of trade openness to address the endogeneity issue. We find that the increase in trade openness leads to an increase in government size: a 1 percent expansion in trade openness (trade GDP ratio) raises government consumption over GDP ratio by approximately 0.1–0.2 percentage points on average. Its quantitative significance emphasizes the importance of rethinking the costs and benefits of trade openness for SDCs.