广东省综合交通运输需求预测模型探究

本文基于高速公路联网收费数据、铁路运营数据及港口、航空统计数据,分析了各交通方式与经济社会发展的相关性,利用决定系数R2分析对比了不同区域的相关性强度,筛选出关联性最强的经济社会指标常住人口与地区生产总值。对比一元回归相关性效果,选择一元回归模型、二元回归模型进行综合交通需求预测,建立了客运量与常住人口、货运量与地区生产总值的一元回归方程,及客运量、货运量与两个经济社会指标的二元回归方程。进而在经济社会指标预测的基础上,预测未来广东省综合交通的运输需求,并选用传统的增长系数法对预测结果进行了合理性验证。     

基于PEST分析与指数平滑预测的公路经营企业融资规划模型研究

融资规划是公路经营企业运营过程中经常性和战略性问题,而企业的融资问题始终与企业外部环境和企业自身财务实力相关。本文建立了一个基于PEST分析和指数平滑预测的融资规划模型,在模型中首先运用PEST分析评价企业面临的外部环境,确定外部经济环境的一些参数,同时以指数平滑法预测企业未来的交通需求,以交通需求来预测企业未来的现金流,在此基础上确定企业的融资模式和资金需求量。该模型不仅适用于公路经营企业,对于其他行业的融资规划也具有很好的参考意义。     

残差灰色预测模型在物流需求预测中的应用

为了提高预测精度,在灰色预测模型的基础上建立残差灰色预测模型,对物流需求进行预测,并以实际铁路货运量算例为基础,作分析比较。结果表明,该方法具有预测精度高、理论可靠、计算简单等优点,具有良好的实用性。     

中国旅游电子商务需求环境特征

本刊讯日前,中国旅游研究院发布的旅游电子商务发展报告显示,2010年,中国旅游电子商务（基于互联网平台的在线旅游业交易）交易规模达到2000亿元人民币,占整体旅游收入份额小于15％,在旅游需求持续增长的市场环境下,大量存在的旅游电子商务企业没有出现剧烈的直接竞争,     

秦皇岛港开展工业旅游研究

在我国进入全面建设小康社会、新型工业化和城市化加速发展的背景下,工业旅游作为一种新兴的旅游项目,具有巨大发展潜力和光明前景。作为国民经济的重要枢纽,国家持续向大型港口建设投资,这不但增强了港口的综合实力,更形成了独特壮观的人文景观,使其具备了开展工业旅游的基础和条件。     

城际列车对新疆旅游经济影响研究

新疆日趋完善的城际列车网络是提升旅游经济发展的重要保障。选取2010—2019年新疆14个地州市统计数据,结合引力模型和DID模型探究城际列车对新疆旅游经济发展的影响效应。研究表明,城际列车开通极大压缩地州市间的时间距离,新疆旅游经济联系网络逐渐紧密,旅游经济综合质量快速增长,空间极化特征缓慢减弱。受天山山脉阻隔效应影响,新疆旅游经济格局存在非均衡性,各地州市间旅游经济互动趋于频繁,但仍呈现出北强南弱的空间格局,南疆是新疆旅游经济的短板。基于DID模型分析,城际列车开通有效助推新疆旅游经济增长,显著提高人均旅游收入水平,经济发展水平、服务发展水平和旅游资源丰度,是促进新疆旅游经济发展的重要因素。     

区域旅游交通需求预测研究

分析旅游需求的特点,对区域旅游景区进行分类,分别预测客源范围的旅游需求,根据旅游区的旅游阻抗,采用概率模型计算各旅游区或景区的旅游需求,在出行结构的基础上,得到旅游交通需求的预测值,并通过实例对旅游交通需求进行预测,为旅游道路网的规划提供依据。     

旅游交通生态足迹模型实证研究

根据生态足迹理论构建旅游交通生态的足迹模型,从计算旅游交通设施的建成地面积、能源消耗量转化成化石能源土地面积、旅游交通生态足迹计算方面,阐释了旅游交通生态足迹模型与计算方法。以江苏盐城海滨湿地为例,对其旅游交通生态足迹进行了计算。根据计算结果,分析了江苏盐城海滨湿地建成地与化石能源地面积、交通工具生态足迹构成、旅游交通生态足迹对旅游区内外部的影响,认为该模型可以较全面地评价旅游交通活动的生态影响。     

铁路旅游专线对区域旅游经济的影响研究

在分析铁路旅游专线对云南省旅游经济影响的基础上,以云南省昆明市、大理市和丽江市3个典型的旅游城市为研究对象,研究铁路旅游专线对区域旅游经济的影响.研究采用结构方差法对2001-2011年429组样本数据的分析结果表明,除2008年金融危机爆发后较短的10个月之外,铁路旅游专线建设对区域旅游经济增长有明显的促进作用,旅游淡、旺季铁路建设投资对旅游经济的作用不同,而区域旅游规划应当着重淡季区域旅游线路的开发.     

青藏铁路沿线旅游资源开发利用与可持续发展的一致性研究

在深入分析青藏铁路沿线旅游资源开发利用现状的基础上,对青藏铁路沿线旅游资源开发利用与可持续发展的一致性指标进行分析评价,提出了相关政策建议。     

需求链管理的预景模型研究

从容量限制的市场调控管理模型和基于财务状况最优的综合成本管理模型入手,研究了需求链管理的预景模型,给出了需求链管理的思路,以及需求链管理的预景模型框架。指出企业在管理中,应更加关注市场的变化和企业的财务状况,以保证企业的持续发展能力。     

Tourism Demand Forecasting with Neural Network Models: Different Ways of Treating Information

This paper aims to compare the performance of three different artificial neural network techniques for tourist demand forecasting: a multi‐layer perceptron, a radial basis function and an Elman network. We find that multi‐layer perceptron and radial basis function models outperform Elman networks. We repeated the experiment assuming different topologies regarding the number of lags used for concatenation so as to evaluate the effect of the memory on the forecasting results. We find that for higher memories, the forecasting performance obtained for longer horizons improves, suggesting the importance of increasing the dimensionality for long‐term forecasting. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Comparative Analysis of Three Types of Tourism Demand Forecasting Models: Individual,Linear Combination and Non‐linear Combination

This paper investigates the combination of individual forecasting models and their roles in improving forecasting accuracy and proposes two non‐linear combination forecasting models using Radial Basis Function and Support Vector Regression neural networks. These two non‐linear combination models plus the standard Multi‐layer Perceptron neural network‐based non‐linear combination model are examined and compared with the linear combination models. The UK inbound tourism quarterly arrival data is used and the empirical results demonstrate that the proposed non‐linear combination models are robust and outperform the linear combination models that currently dominate in the tourism forecasting literature. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of Long‐Term Weather on Domestic and Foreign Winter Tourism Demand

This study estimates the determinants of domestic and foreign tourism demand using data on 28 Austrian ski resorts for the winter seasons 1986–1987 to 2007–1908. Using the dynamic panel data analysis, we find that the effect of the weather variables (e.g. snow depth, cloudiness or sunshine) is quite small, with a change in one standard deviation of the variation over time in each weather variable, leading to a 2–3 % change in overnight stays. Furthermore, domestic tourists are more sensitive to changes in weather conditions than foreign tourists. By contrast, overnight stays of foreign visitors are much more responsive to changes in income than it is the case for domestic overnight stays. The occurrence of extreme snow‐deficient winters, such as the winter of 2006–2007, in the future period will reduce overnight stays of foreign and domestic visitors by 2 and 5 %, respectively. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Tour guides under zero-fare mode: evidence from China

The zero-fare tour is a common phenomenon in China that receives a great deal of attention from the popular press but little attention in the tourism literature. This qualitative study illuminates the previously unheard voice of the zero-fare group tour guides, examining their work attitudes and relationships with tourists, tour operators, and tourism administrators. A two-phase pre- and post-interview approach is used to examine the impacts of the 2013 tourism law on the tour guides. Findings indicate that tour guides struggle with conflicting feelings towards the zero-fare tour and their place within it. For instance, the informants describe themselves as scapegoats of the zero-fare tour mode, yet they also enjoy the freedom and opportunity it presents. The study concludes with a call for more thoughtful consideration of the policy and governance of the zero-fare tour.     

需求预测更新条件下的供应链协调订货决策问题

研究了由单一制造商、单一分销商和单一产品组成供应链契约中的协调订货决策问题.基于论述该项订货的特点,从分散系统下订货行为、集中系统下订货行为两方面,研究了模型的建立、系统协调的实现.最后进行数值分析,得出相应协调机制作用下,实现供应链整体所增长利润,在各成员间的灵活分配,分配结果满足"风险越大,利润越高"的市场法则.     

Impact of economic policy on international tourism demand: the case of Abenomics

Since the 2008 global financial crisis and resulting recession, many countries have been following unconventional monetary policies. Little information is known on how these policies may influence tourism demand. This study starts to fill this gap by investigating the impact of the Japanese economic policy known as Abenomics on South Koreans’ travel to Japan, the largest inbound market for Japan. Per capita gross domestic product, relative prices, and exchange rates are significant determinants of Japanese inbound tourism. As these variables have been influenced by Abenomics, one can infer that Abenomics is associated with a significant increase in tourist arrivals from South Korea. Findings highlight the importance of government economic policy in stimulating international tourism demand through its impact on the economy.     

小交通量路网改造资金优化投资模型的研究

传统的以经济效益为目标函数的优化模型在一定程度上影响了路网改造项目决策的合理性.针对我国西部地区经济落后、交通量小、客货在途时间价值低的特性,采用以道路服务水平提高值作为目标函数,资金投入作为约束条件的优化模型,对西部路网改造资金进行了优化分配.该模型在湖北省恩施地区的路网改造资金优化中取得良好效果.