The response of labour effort to falling real wages: The Mexican peso devaluation of February 1982

This paper reports empirical evidence on the effect of the February 1982 Mexican peso devaluation with its concomitant reduction in real income on the output of individual workers. Using a set of pooled data for 46 workers employed in two textile plants in Mexicali over a 22-week period the regression results show a significant increase in average output of about 15% in response to the 25% decrease in wages due to the devaluation. The study also finds that there was no significant response in output to the legislated, annual increase in money wages of January 1982.     

Unskilled wage gaps within the Japanese Empire

This study calculates the cost of subsistence and respectability consumption baskets to derive ‘welfare ratios’ for 11 cities in the Japanese Empire as defined by Allen and his colleagues. Nominal wages tended to be higher where higher prices prevailed, and vice versa. Prices and nominal wages remained highest in Japan and lowest in Manchuria, with Korea and Taiwan being placed in between. Welfare ratios remained roughly comparable in the 1910s in the imperial cities outside Manchuria, where unskilled workers enjoyed substantially higher living standards. Interwar decades saw real wages rise in Tokyo, but fall in Dalian, which caused convergence in workers' income levels. Wage divergence occurred within Manchuria, as workers in Shenyang and Changchun enjoyed an improving welfare ratio. Real wages rose more slowly in Korean and Taiwanese than in Japanese cities. Replacing a subsistence lifestyle with a ‘respectable’ lifestyle yields a significantly different picture of the evolution of the real wage gap within the empire, which contradicts findings reported by existing studies in important respects.     

The economic effects of the 1920 eight-hour working day reform in Sweden

In 1920, the working day in Swedish manufacturing and services was cut from 10 to 8 hours without wages being cut correspondingly. Since workers demanded and got the same daily wage working 8 hours as they had with 10, real hourly wages increased dramatically; they were about 50% higher in 1921–1922 than they had been in 1919. This is the largest wage push in Swedish history, and this paper studies the consequences for profits, investments, capital intensity and unemployment. In traded manufacturing employers responded by increasing capital intensity and did not compensate for rising wages by raising prices, which led to a combination of jobless growth and low profit rates in the 1920s. Firms in non-traded manufacturing and services could raise prices and conserve profitability to a higher degree. In total, the effects of the reform were pro-labour. We discuss the implications for our understanding of interwar wages and employment, the literature on the decrease in inequality found in most industrial countries around 1920 and the rise of the ‘Swedish model’ in the 1920s and 1930s.     

HECKSHER-OHLIN IN CANADA: NEW ESTIMATES OF REGIONAL WAGES AND LAND PRICES

Many immigrant-receiving and land-abundant countries experienced a diminishing ratio of wages to land prices during the globalisation era from 1870 to 1910. Factor price evidence suggests that Canada does not fit the pattern. We present the first Canadian estimates of region-specific wages and land prices that span the period from 1871 to 1925. Our evidence indicates that while Canada as a nation looks like an anomaly in the era of convergence, this is largely an artefact of aggregating the experience of the labour-abundant eastern provinces with the late-settling and land-abundant western provinces.     

Between conquest and independence: Real wages and demographic change in Spanish America, 1530–1820

On the basis of a newly constructed dataset, this paper presents long-term series of the price levels, nominal wages, and real wages in Spanish Latin America – more specifically in Mexico, Peru, Bolivia, Colombia, Chile, and Argentina – between ca. 1530 and ca. 1820. It synthesizes the work of scholars who have collected and published data on individual cities and periods, and presents comparable indices of real wages and prices in the colonial period that give a reasonable guide to trends in the long run. We show that nominal wages and prices were on average much higher than in Western Europe or in Asia, a reflection of the low value of silver that must have had consequences for competitiveness of the Latin American economies. Labour scarcity was the second salient feature of Spanish Latin America and resulted in real wages much above subsistence and in some cases (Mexico, Bolivia, Argentina) comparable to levels in Northwestern Europe. For Mexico, this was caused by the dramatic decline of the population after the Conquest. For Bolivia, the driving force was the boom in silver mining in Potosi that created a huge demand for labour. In the case of Argentina, low population density was a pre-colonial feature. Perhaps due to a different pattern of depopulation, the real wages of other regions (Peru, Colombia and Chile) were much lower, and only increased above subsistence during the first half of the 18th century. These results are consistent with independent evidence on biological standards of living and with estimates of GDP per capita at the beginning of the 19th century.     

The Linkage between Prices,Wages, and Labor Productivity: A Panel Study of Manufacturing Industries

This article investigates the long-run relationship between prices and wage-adjusted productivity as well as between real wages and average labor productivity at the industry level for a panel of 459 U.S. manufacturing industries over the period 1956-1996. Panel reintegration test results strongly reject the null of no reintegration in the panel between both prices and wage-adjusted productivity and between labor productivity and real wages for many (but not all) industries. Granger-causality tests show that prices are weakly exogenous and cause movements in unit labor cost. Bidirectional Granger causality is found between real wages and productivity; however, a one-to-one relationship is strongly rejected between real wages and productivity. Increases in labor productivity are associated with a less than unity increase in real wages.     

The question of land access and the Spanish land reform of 1932

Spanish land reform, involving the breakup of the large southern estates, was a central issue during the first decades of the twentieth century, and was justified on economic and political grounds. This article employs new provincial data on landless workers, land prices, and agrarian wages to consider whether government intervention was needed because of the failure of the free action of markets to redistribute land. Our evidence shows that the relative number of landless workers decreased significantly from 1860 to 1930, before the approval of the 1932 Land reform during the Second Republic (1931–6). This was due to two interrelated market forces: the falling ratio between land prices and rural wages, which made plots of land cheaper for landless workers to rent and buy; and structural change that drained the rural population from the countryside Given that shifts in factor prices were already helping workers gain access to land by the 1930s, the economic arguments for introducing reform at that time remain unclear.     

Wage misalignment in CFA countries: were labour market policies to blame?

Wage rigidity, stemming from highly distortive labour marketpolicies, is a natural candidate to explain the overvaluationof the CFA franc after the adverse external shocks of the 1980s.This paper uses a variety of data sources to assess wage rigidityin CFA countries until the 1994 devaluation, and to analysewhether it was due to labour market policies. The paper showsthat wages were high in CFA countries, compared with both wagesin similar countries and the labour earnings of similar individualswithin the same countries. It also shows that wages were rigidin real terms, in the sense of following closely the fluctuationsof government wages and consumer prices, but it finds no evidenceof nominal wage rigidity, though. From an international perspective,minimum wages were not high enough to account for the observedwage misalignment. Moreover, their adjustment over time washighly responsive to real shocks. Private sector unions, inturn, seemed more instrumental in achieving wage moderationthan wage drift. Their members usually had lower wages thansimilar, non-unionised workers, which probably reflects the'subordinate' nature of the labour movement. The most likelycandidates to explain wage misalignment and real rigidity inCFA countries in the 1980s and early 1990s are therefore governmentpay policies and (possibly) limited competition in product markets.     

The evolution of wages in early modern Normandy (1600–1850)

This article presents new estimates of wages for Normandy between 1600 and 1850. We use a vast array of primary and secondary sources to assemble two new databases on wages and commodity prices to establish a new regional consumer price index (CPI) and twelve regional wage series. We find that unskilled labourers earned similar wages across the agricultural, maritime, and textile sectors. Historical evidence suggests that Norman employers grappled with a tight labour market, which placed more pressure on wage increases. We posit that this situation is best explained by the combination of the early fertility transition, resulting in slow demographic growth and the rapid development of the textile industry accelerated by the arrival of cotton. Finally, we also provide tentative evidence suggesting that labourers with stable employment could have earned a little less than their English counterparts during this period.     

Labour market response to globalisation: Spain, 1880–1913

This paper analyses the impact of globalisation (trade and migration) on the Spanish labour market between 1880 and 1913 by examining the influence that globalisation factors had on agricultural and industrial wages. Our results show that the nineteenth century grain invasion had a negative impact on agricultural wages, whereas the fall in wheat prices did not benefit industry workers. We also found that migration pushed up real agricultural and industrial wages. As agriculture was the main sector in the economy, the final impact was a wage decrease. The negative impact of trade on agricultural and industrial labour markets partly explains the trade policy response of “integral protection”. However, other alternatives that would have been effective in raising living standards, such as migration policy, were not used.     

Working hours in the European periphery: The length of the working day in Spain, 1885-1920

This paper studies the decline of the working day in Spain from 1885 to 1920. The decline was more continuous than previously thought. Differences in hours reinforce wage differentials, showing labor markets were not well integrated. Cross-sectional and time-series analysis suggests that hour reductions reflect a labor supply rather than a labor demand effect. Given the comparatively slow growth of real wages in Spain from 1870 to 1920, the Spanish case shows that international convergence in hours of work must have been stronger than convergence in wages.     

Real Wages in Australia and Canada, 1870–1913: Globalization versus Productivity

Australia's and Canada's real wage experiences between 1870 and 1913 were distinctive. Faster productivity growth underpinned Canada's overtaking of Australia's wage levels. The globalization forces of migration and trade also shaped their comparative wages, principally by reducing wage growth in Canada. Immigration increased slightly Australia's real wages, but reduced wage levels in Canada, and tempered there the beneficial effects of rising productivity and improving terms of trade. In contrast, wage earners' share of national income rose after 1890 in Australia, with the productivity slowdown hitting chiefly rents and profits. Distributional shifts favouring wage earners in Australia, and the depressing effects of mass immigration on wages in Canada, limited Canada's wage lead before 1914, despite her faster productivity growth.     

Losing the thread: a response to Robert Allen†

In an earlier article we used archival and printed primary sources to construct the first long-run wage series for hand spinning in early modern Britain. This evidence challenged Robert Allen's claim that spinners were part of the ‘high wage economy’, which he sees as motivating invention, innovation, and mechanization in the spinning section of the textile industry. We respond to Allen's subsequent criticism of our argument, sources, and methods, and his presentation of alternative evidence. Allen contends that we have understated both the earnings and associated productivity of hand spinners by focusing on part-time and low-quality workers. His rejoinder rests on an ahistorical account of spinners’ work and similarly weak evidence on wages as did his initial claims. Our augmented version of the spinners’ wages dataset confirms our original findings. Spinners’ wages were low even compared with other women workers, and neither wages nor the piece rates that determined unit labour costs followed a trajectory that could explain the invention and spread of the spinning jenny.     

MINIMUM WAGE POLICY AND ITS IMPACT ON EMPLOYMENT IN THE URBAN FORMAL SECTOR

Since the late 1980s, minimum wages have become an important plank of the Indonesian government's labour policy. Their levels have increased faster in real terms than those of average wages and per capita gross domestic product and, as a result, minimum wages have become binding for the majority of formal sector workers. This study finds that the imposition of minimum wages has a negative and statistically significant impact on employment in the urban formal sector. The disemployment impact is greatest for female, young and less educated workers, while the employment prospects of white-collar workers are enhanced by increases in minimum wages. Some workers who lose jobs in the formal sector and have to relocate to the informal sector face lower earnings and poorer working conditions.     

FACTOR PRICES AND INCOME DISTRIBUTION IN LESS INDUSTRIALISED ECONOMIES 1870–1939

Global trade expansion after 1870 had potentially powerful effects on income distribution, especially in land-abundant less industrialised economies, by increasing land prices relative to wages. The papers in this issue add evidence on wage–rentals for a range of countries, specifically Australia, Canada, Ghana, India, and Sweden. These new data offer partial support for Jeffrey Williamson's view that the distributional effects of booming global trade to 1914 were powerful and ubiquitous, but they highlight that more attention might be given to geographical boundaries and to other distribution forces including technology and wage bargaining conditions.     

Employment and Prices in a Simple Macroeconomy

This exercise sets up interlinked labor and goods markets in a classroom macroeconomy. Students with worker roles are endowed with labor that can be consumed or sold to firms that post wages, purchase labor, and produce goods that can be either consumed or sold to workers. The money from sales is used by firms to purchase labor in the next period. Complicated record keeping is avoided by using ordinary playing cards to represent money and goods. The exercise can stimulate a discussion of potential output, unemployment, and the role of money in determining wages and prices. Use: This experiment can be used in introductory macroeconomics classes to teach concepts of the circular flow, real and money wages, unemployment, and labor market equilibrium and in intermediate classes to consider Keynesian and quantity theories. Time required: Fifteen minutes for reading instructions, 30 to 45 minutes for trading (depending on the number of periods), and 15 minutes for discussion. Materials: You will need one copy of the instructions for each person and one deck of ordinary playing cards for each replicated group of two workers and one firm. No money or other incentives are required.     

The macroeconomic effects of immigration: Israel in the 1990s

The Macroeconomic Effects of Immigration: Israel in the 1990s. — The authors perform counterfactual simulations using an econometric model to estimate the macroeconomic effects of immigration in Israel. The model takes account of immigrant assimilation in labor and housing markets. They argue that wage flexibility was the key to success in immigrant absorption. In addition, the animal spirits of entrepreneurs consolidated this success. House prices, GDP, consumption, investment, unemployment and imports would have been considerably lower but for the immigration, while real wages would have been higher. The main beneficiaries were capitalists owning housing and businesses. The main losers were workers who were not owner-occupiers.     

Economic effects of immigrants on native and foreign-born workers: complementarity,substitutability, and other channels of influence

The authors use Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area (SMSA) data constructed from 1980 census microdata files and other sources to estimate a structural model of native/foreign-born labor demand and labor supply which distinguishes the effects upon real wages of each type of labor and on the employment of natives. The authors specify, econometrically estimate, and simulate the structural model which incorporates not only a production structure channel through which immigrants influence area real wages and employment, but also demand and native labor supply channels. It is noted that while these are not the only channels through which immigrants may affect native workers, the model nonetheless constitutes a step in the direction of a general equilibrium approach. In the production structure channel, immigrants and natives are found to be substitutes in production. Immigration lowers foreign-born wage rates and leads to lower wages for natives. The negative effects of the production channel usually are ameliorated through the demand channel. Further, immigrants add to local demand through their earnings and potentially through non-labor income, while also lowering unit costs and local prices which enhances real incomes and potentially net exports, and thus the demands for local output and area labor. The author discusses findings of interest from the simulation results based upon an analysis of all areas.     

Poverty or prosperity in northern India? New evidence on real wages, 1590s–1870s†

This article introduces a new dataset on wages in northern India (from Gujarat in the west to Bengal in the east) from the 1590s to the 1870s. It follows Allen's subsistence basket methodology to compute internationally comparable real wages to shed light on developments in Indian living standards over time. It adjusts the comparative cost-of-living indices to take into account differences in climate and caloric intake due to variances in heights. The article also discusses the male/female wage gap in northern India. It demonstrates that the ‘great divergence’ started in the late seventeenth century, and widened further after the 1720s and especially after the 1800s. It was subsequently primarily England's spurt and India's stagnation in the first half of the nineteenth century that brought about most serious differences in the standard of living. If the British colonial state is to blame—as often suggested by the literature on India's persistent poverty—the fault lies in its failure to improve the situation after the British became near-undisputed masters of India in 1820.     

A Tale of Two Peripheries: Real Wages in Denmark and New Zealand 1875–1939.

Abstract

Denmark achieved dramatic real wage growth after 1870, compared to other European economies and to those of the New World. The ingredients of Denmark's success are gauged by comparison with one its major competitors in the British food-products markets, New Zealand. Faster Danish productivity growth explains only part of Denmark's faster real wage growth. Open economy forces, chiefly international capital flows before 1913, and especially Danish trade union militancy around the end of World War I, influenced income distribution and especially favoured wages over property income in Denmark. Denmark's GDP per capita equalled New Zealand levels between the world wars but her real wages surged past those of New Zealand as distributional shifts favoured Denmark's wage earners.