Dynamic Linkages between FDI Inflows and Domestic Investment: A Panel Cointegration Approach

This paper analyzes the dynamic relationship between FDI inflows and domestic investment for a panel of selected countries by means of panel cointegration and causality techniques. Specifically, the paper provides empirical evidence regarding the existence of possible crowding in or crowding out effects between FDI inflows and domestic investment, accounting for the location and the level of development of the host countries.The paper was presented at the International Atlantic Economic Conference in London, March 9–13, 2005. The authors wish to thank the participants of the Macroeconomic Topics session for their valuable comments on an earlier draft. We would also like to express our gratitude to G. Chortareas and G. Konteos for helpful comments and suggestions. Nevertheless, the usual disclaimer applies.     

Foreign Direct Investment and Income Inequality in Southeast Asia: a Panel Unit Root and Panel Cointegration Analysis, 1990–2013

This paper examines the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and income distribution in the host country as measured by the Gini coefficient. After providing some background and reviewing the extant literature, it undertakes a panel unit root and cointegration analysis that tests whether FDI has a non-linear impact on income inequality in seven selected Southeast Asian countries over the period 1990 to 2013. The paper finds strong evidence for panel cointegration using the Pedroni Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) tests. Thus, it proceeds to utilize the group-mean fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) procedure to generate long-run estimates that are unbiased and consistent. The FMOLS estimator is also extremely accurate even in panels with very heterogeneous serial correlation dynamics, fixed effects, and endogenous regressors. The results confirm the hypothesis that FDI inflows tend to raise income inequality in the short run but reduce it in the long run. In this study, the Gini index starts decreasing after FDI inflows as a percentage of GDP reaches 5.6. The fact that the Gini coefficient reaches its maximum at a relatively low level of FDI inflows suggests that sample countries are endowed with substantial absorptive capacity. In other words, they will shift into the new technological paradigm quickly, thus supporting pro-globalization claims that, on balance, FDI is more beneficial than harmful.     

Optimal Exit Costs of Foreign Direct Investment

This paper examines the optimal policy on exit costs of foreign direct investment for a host country considering the impact of varying income level and host country’s risk aversion against volatile FDI flows. Based on a dynamic model about the impact of the exit costs on FDI inflows and capital formation, we demonstrate that a host country should determine the exit cost considering two counterbalancing factors, that is, facilitating higher FDI inflows and reducing volatility of FDI inflows. When a host country is less vulnerable to volatility with inelastic risk aversion against FDI volatility, it is optimal for the host country with a negative income shock to take a more aggressive approach to induce FDI inflows by lowering exit costs. However, if the host country is more vulnerable to volatility with elastic risk aversion, the host country is advised to take a conservative approach by increasing exit costs to reduce FDI volatility. These findings, supported by the OECD data on 42 countries’ exits costs, implicate that developing countries are recommended to lower exit costs to induce higher FDI inflows when they are not highly vulnerable to volatility shocks.     

中国三大都市圈利用外商直接投资的相对规模——市场经济体制转型以来的比较研究

本文采用联合国贸易和发展会议关于外商直接投资(FDI)的相对规模指标,测算了1992年我国市场经济体制转型以来,首都圈、长三角及珠三角这三大都市圈FDI流入量占固定资产形成总额的比例、FDI存量与GDP的比值、人均FDI流入量等利用FDI的相对规模水平,并与全国及世界水平进行了比较。研究表明,三大都市圈利用FDI的相对规模水平总体而言高于全国水平;以相对规模指标衡量,珠三角FDI在经济总量和投资中的地位较长三角和首都圈更为重要;与珠三角和长三角相比,首都圈FDI在其经济总量和投资中的地位尚不突出;在世界范围以人均FDI流入量考量,三大都市圈需进一步扩大利用FDI的规模。     

Impact of financial development on domestic investment: Evidence from West African countries

This paper investigates the effect of financial development on domestic investment in West African countries. The study uses data from 1985 to 2019 and employs the pooled mean group technique. The main finding of the study is that financial development has a positive effect on domestic investment in the long run but an insignificant effect in the short run. Furthermore, remittances, real GDP per capita and trade openness increase investment rate. The results of causality tests support the view that investment is a channel through which financial development stimulates economic growth. Therefore, it is reasonable for the selected countries to formulate policies that promote domestic credit to the private sector in order to ease liquidity constraints and increase investment and economic growth.     

FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN INDONESIA: FIFTY YEARS OF DISCOURSE

The topic of foreign direct investment (FDI) has been prominent in assessments of economic development in Indonesia during the past 50 years. In this article I review Indonesia's FDI record in a historical perspective; the current urge to control FDI inflows and the need to augment domestic savings and facilitate technology transfers are not at all new in Indonesia. I draw in particular on the discourse on FDI in this journal, the Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, giving special attention to contributions by this journal to the international literature on FDI and its impact. The article demonstrates that the relation between FDI and economic growth has been less straightforward in Indonesia than elsewhere in Southeast Asia. Although FDI has grown in a restrictive investment climate, on occasion it has failed to do so despite more liberal conditions. This may be attributed to the sustained role of natural resources in determining Indonesia's attractiveness as a host country of FDI.     

Taxation and Foreign Direct Investment Inflows: Time Series Evidence from the US

Abstract

This study investigates long run and short run relationships between the corporate income tax rate and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows to the US. The tax rate is found to exert a significant negative effect on total FDI and transfer fund inflows in the long run. A 1% decrease in the tax rate would increase total FDI by 2.4% and transfer funds by 4.2%. Collectively, results suggest that the US can use tax policies to attract FDI from abroad. Concern over the possibility of tax competition among countries to attract foreign capital is warranted.     

The Global Financial Crisis and Sub‐Saharan Africa: The Effects of Slowing Private Capital Inflows on Growth*

Abstract: This paper uses the bias‐corrected least‐squares dummy variable (LSDV) estimator to examine the relationship between economic growth and four different types of private capital inflows (cross‐border bank lending, foreign direct investment (FDI), bonds flows and portfolio equity flows) on a sample of 15 selected sub‐Saharan African countries over the period 1980–2008. Our results show that FDI and cross‐border bank lending exert a significant and positive impact on sub‐Saharan Africa's growth, whereas portfolio equity flows and bonds flows have no growth impact. Our estimates suggest that a drop by 10 per cent in FDI inflows may lead to a 3 per cent decrease of income per capita growth in sub‐Saharan Africa, and a 10 per cent decrease in cross‐border bank lending may reduce growth by up to 1.5 per cent. Therefore, the global financial crisis is likely to have an important effect on sub‐Saharan Africa's growth through the private capital inflows channel.     

Foreign Direct Investment Inflows and Intellectual Property Rights: Empirical Evidence from Different Income Groups

This study examines the impact of intellectual property rights (IPRs) on Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows by considering global data with three income groups classified by World Bank (i.e. high-, middle-, and low-income groups). The empirical model relates FDI inflows to IPRs, controlled by a set of known variables, namely GDP per capital, trade openness, real exchange rate, and real interest rate. The study covers panel data of between 35 and 100 countries for the period 1980–2014. The panel cointegration tests suggest that FDI inflow and IPRs with the other control variables are cointegrated for full countries and high-income group. Their estimated (long-run) coefficients are 0.04 and 0.18, respectively, but insignificant in the short-run. The impact (short-run) of TRIPS agreement is positive for full countries, but negative for low-income group. Non-causality tests further support the role of IPRs on FDI. Various transmission channels have been identified, in particularly for low-income countries. This study enlightens policymakers about the policy on creating a conducive and sustainable environment for IPRs in order to encourage FDI inflows to their countries.     

Foreign investment and bribery: A firm-level analysis of corruption in Vietnam

Among the concerns faced by countries pondering the costs and benefits of greater economic openness to international capital flows is the worry that new and powerful external actors will exert a corrupting influence on the domestic economy. In this paper, we use a novel empirical strategy, drawn from research in experimental psychology, to test the linkage between foreign direct investment (FDI) and corruption. The prevailing literature has produced confused and contradictory results on this vital relationship due to errors in their measurement of corruption which are correlated with FDI inflows. When a less biased operationalization is employed, we find clear evidence of corruption during both registration and procurement procedures in Vietnam. The prevalence of corruption, however, is not associated with inflows of FDI. On the contrary, one measure of economic openness appears to be the most important driver of reductions in Vietnamese corruption: the wave of domestic legislation, which accompanied the country's bilateral trade liberalization agreement with the United States (US-BTA), significantly reduced bribery during business registration.     

SOUTH AFRICA'S POST‐LIBERALISED CAPITAL FLOWS AND BUSINESS CYCLE FLUCTUATIONS

This study used Christiano and Fitzgerald filtered correlation analysis to investigate the cyclical relationships between South Africa's post‐liberalised capital flows and domestic business cycle fluctuations. The results show that foreign direct investment inflows are counter‐cyclical and proactive, while the “hot” inflows are acyclical. Thus, South Africa's post‐liberalisation “hot” inflows have not been significantly associated with domestic business cycle fluctuations. In contrast, the capital outflows are found to be consistently procyclical and proactive, suggesting that the outflows are more significantly associated with domestic business cycle fluctuations than the capital inflows. In addition, it is found that the cyclical relationships between the capital inflows and the business cycle components of exports, household consumption and gross fixed investment are generally procyclical, except for portfolio inflows, which have a counter‐cyclical relationship with fixed investment. In contrast, the capital outflows are counter‐cyclically associated with exports and household consumption, and procyclically associated with fixed investment.     

China's economic development: does exchange rate and FDI nexus matter?

This study aims to investigate the relationship between China's exchange rate, foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, and economic development. We applied the bound testing approach on aggregate level data from 1981 to 2013. The results showed that the Chinese economy benefitted from a lower exchange rate over this period, and that there was a direct link between FDI inflows and economic development on an aggregate level both in the long and short run. The results of the Granger causality test identified a long‐ and short‐run association among these variables. The GMM estimations with dummies for financial crises and RMB exchange rate policy fluctuations also confirmed the growth enhancing impact of the exchange rate and FDI inflows. To promote sustainable economic development in the future, China should focus on improving the levels of domestic investment and human capital, as well as supervising the level of openness and capital controls.     

Spillovers from foreign direct investment in services: Evidence at sub-sectoral level for the Asia-Pacific

We take a sectoral level approach to analyzing the effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows. We disaggregate FDI first by manufacturing versus services, then within services by financial services, trade services, and business services. We consider the effects of FDI inflows on growth of GDP per capita, then distinguish between growth in manufacturing and services value added per capita. Our data sample comprises 14 Asia Pacific economies for the period 1985–2012 to which we apply a dynamic panel generalized method of moments estimation technique. Services FDI as a whole is found to have a significantly positive impact on GDP growth while manufacturing FDI is found to have no effect. The impetus for growth from services FDI traces to financial services in particular, acting not only directly on service sector output but through manufacturing sector output as well. By contrast, trade services FDI is found to have a significantly negative effect on manufacturing output with no significant effect on services output. Foreign participation in trade services may act to expose domestic manufacturers to international competition and may also lead to domestic consolidation to take advantage of economies of scale.     

Do Foreign Investors Care about Labor Market Regulations?

This study investigates whether labor market flexibility affects foreign direct investment (FDI) flows across 19 Western and Eastern European countries. The analysis uses firm level data on new investments undertaken in the period 1998–2001. The study employs a variety of proxies for labor market regulations reflecting the flexibility of individual and collective dismissals, the length of the notice period and the required severance payment along with controls for business climate characteristics. The results suggest that greater flexibility in the host country’s labor market in absolute terms or relative to that in the investor’s home country is associated with larger FDI inflows. JEL no. F21, F23, J0     

Sectoral FDI cycles in South and East Asia

This study aims to analyze how sectoral foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in South and East Asian economies respond to changes in the business cycles of the host countries, as measured by their output gaps. We focus on 15 economies during the period 1980–2011 and examine inflows of FDI in extractive industries, manufacturing and services in addition to aggregate FDI by using a dynamic panel Blundell–Bond GMM methodology. We find evidence of countercyclical behavior of services FDI and acyclical behavior of both extractive industries FDI and manufacturing FDI. The coutercyclical behavior of services FDI in South and East Asia has important policy implications.     

Bilateral tax agreement and FDI inflows: Evidence from Hong Kong investment in the Mainland China

This paper explains the changes in the composition of the source countries or regions of FDI in China from the perspective of taxation. Based on FDI data from 2003 to 2012, the empirical test, employing the difference-in-differences (DID) model, shows that, after the implementation of the tax agreement between the mainland and Hong Kong in 2007, FDI from Hong Kong increased significantly. After the integration of domestic and foreign-funded enterprise income tax systems in 2008, Hong Kong capital inflows increased even more drastically. The extended analyses show that, the substantial increase in Hong Kong capital after the implementation of this bilateral tax agreement was partly related to the diversion effect of investment. MNCs might have diverted investment from other tax havens to the mainland via Hong Kong, resulting in a sharp increase in the amount and proportion of Hong Kong investment, whereas those of FDI from other tax havens have declined.     

Human capital,FTAs and foreign direct investment flows into ASEAN

In this paper, we examine the impact of foreign direct investment flows into ASEAN in a gravity model using the bilateral FDI data from 2000 to 2009. In particular, we study the key factors that determine the FDI flows into the region including human capital development and whether membership of a bilateral or regional trade agreement has a differential impact on FDI flows using an extended gravity model. The empirical results indicate that free trade agreements do have positive impact on FDI inflows. However, the returns on FDI inflows depend on the domestic absorptive capacity of the economy and region. It is imperative for ASEAN to align its infrastructure, human capital and technologies to provide MNCs with the necessary linkages to the global network and also to move the domestic industries seamlessly up the global production value-chain. The paper highlights that this is crucial for deeper ASEAN integration and for sustainable growth in the region.     

FDI AND DOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN TAIWAN: AN ENDOGENOUS SWITCHING MODEL

The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of the FDI decision on domestic investment in the case of Taiwanese manufacturing firms. In addition, we also consider the deferral effect of the FDI decision and the role of firm size. To this end, this paper takes advantage of an endogenous switching model from which consistent estimators are obtained after correcting for the self‐selection problem. The empirical results show that the effect of these manufacturing firms’ FDI decisions on domestic investment is significant within the firms. Furthermore, a crowding‐out effect of FDI on domestic investment is found when Taiwanese firms engage in defensive FDI. Finally, FDI is found to have a positive influence on the domestic investment of the larger firms, while the influence is negative in the case of the smaller firms.     

The effects of foreign aid,foreign direct investment and domestic investment on economic growth in African countries: Nonlinearities and complementarities

This paper examines the relationship between foreign aid (AID), foreign direct investment (FDI) and domestic investment (DI) and its effects on economic growth in 41 African countries. Annual panel data from 1990 to 2016 are examined using fixed‐effects (FE) and system‐GMM estimators. We test the existence of nonlinearities and complementarities in the relationship between AID–FDI, AID–DI, FDI–DI, and AID–FDI–DI. Empirical results confirm the existence of a nonlinear relationship between AID, FDI, DI, and economic growth. Besides, the results show that AID and FDI have a significant positive complementing effect on economic growth. It is shown also that FDI complements DI, while the coupled effect of AID and DI remains weak in catalyzing growth. Moreover, the results indicate that the complementarity between AID–FDI–DI positively influence economic growth, revealing that AID and FDI work as a complement factor to DI and enhance its effectiveness in promoting economic growth. These insights have important policy implications. Policy‐makers in African countries are well advised to implement concrete policy measures suitable for building on the growth momentum created by foreign capital inflows, like FDI, AID as well as remittance.     

转型期国内外投资对广东经济增长贡献的对比分析

通过建立协整模型,以1981～2008年广东经济发展数据为基础,对比分析了改革开放以来国内外投资对广东经济增长的贡献,得出结论:国内投资是推动广东经济发展的主要动力,国外投资与广东经济增长正相关,但带有一定的滞后性和局限性.最后,在前述分析的基础上对转型期的广东该如何利用国内外投资提出了建议.