The impact of trade facilitation factors on South Africa's exports to a selection of African countries

Economic growth can be enhanced through increased trade among countries, provided the correct institutional structures are in place. A country's trade is dependent not only on its own trade facilitation reforms but also on those of the trading partners. This paper, using an augmented gravity model, examines trade facilitation factors that impact on South Africa's exports to other selected African countries. The results of the estimation reveal the following. An improvement in the customs environment within the importing country provides the largest gain in terms of increasing trade flows, followed by the regulatory environment and domestic infrastructure. Furthermore, adjacency and common language impact positively on South African exports, while distance between countries impacts negatively on it. Being part of the Southern African Development Community is also enhancing exports from South Africa, compared with being part of the East African Community.     

The effect of the informal economy on bilateral exports from sub-Saharan African countries

The purpose of this study is to analyse the impact of the informal economy on bilateral exports in sub-Saharan African countries. We use a gravity model, to which we add indicators of the informal economy and indicator variables for different economic regions. The study used Pseudo-Poisson Maximum Likelihood (PPML) and Heckman estimation techniques on data from the period 2002–2018. The results show that the informal economy has a negative impact on bilateral inter-community exports and a positive impact on bilateral intra-community exports. These results thus support the idea that the informal economy can accelerate the integration of regional economic communities and ultimately facilitate the establishment of bilateral export free trade areas at the continental level.     

WTO框架下贸易便利化问题探析

WTO为自由贸易做出了不懈的努力,一旦正式的贸易壁垒降低了,简化贸易手续、推进贸易便利化等问题就变得重要起来。由于贸易便利化措施会给贸易商、政府等贸易参与者带来巨大的经济利益,因而贸易便利化一直是世界各国所追求的目标。鉴于发达国家与发展中国家在贸易便利化问题上利益存在的差异,因此,在WTO的框架下讨论贸易便利化具有很强的指导意义。     

Examination of travel and tourism competitiveness contribution to national economy competitiveness of sub-Saharan Africa countries

The purpose of this research is to examine the influence of travel and tourism competitiveness (measured by the Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Index [TTCI]) on the national economic competitiveness of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries (measured by the Global Competitiveness Index [GCI]). The aim is to identify critical factors for improving competitiveness of SAA countries from the area of tourism competitiveness. The study was conducted using the following methods: regression, cluster and grey relational analysis (GRA). Results reveal that travel and tourism competitiveness has a high impact on national competitiveness in the analysed group of countries. The study identified three homogeneous groups within SSA countries according to the TTCI pillars. The different impact of the TTCI on the GCI is determined in each of these three homogeneous groups of countries. The outcomes of this study could provide recommendations for tourism development policy-makers in SSA countries based on the results of GRA.     

New evidence on sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in sub-Saharan African countries

Following a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) approach, this paper presents new evidence on the validity of international transmission of economic shocks from key trading partners as sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. The GVAR model was estimated for 21 SSA countries grouped into three country classes—oil-rich, other-resources-rich and non-resource-based economies, to account for output shocks from crucial trading partner countries—United States, United Kingdom, China and Europe. Furthermore, the generalized forecast error variance decompositions results reveal that output shocks from key trading partners constitute significant contributors to changes in key macroeconomic indicators—real gross domestic product, inflation, exchange rate and short-term interest rate, in the SSA region. The generalized impulse response functions indicate that these economic shocks have more significant impacts on oil-rich countries than on other country groups. A key recommendation from this study is that SSA countries, especially the resource-rich economies, need to strengthen and diversify their economic structure, including the trade basket.     

The determinants of African tourism

Using a standard panel gravity equation of 175 origin/destination countries between 1995 and 2008, 43 of which are African, we identify the factors that drive African-inbound (arrivals to Africa from other continents) and within-African tourism (arrivals from and to an African country). We find that the determinants of African-inbound and within-African tourism are not all that different from global tourism flows; repeat tourism, income, distance, land area and the standard dummy variables not only drive global or OECD tourism, but also tourism within Africa, disproving the belief that African tourists ‘differ substantially’.     

Trade facilitation in ASEAN member countries: Measuring progress and assessing priorities

This paper reviews progress and indicators of trade facilitation in member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. The findings show that import and export costs vary considerably in the member countries, from very low to moderately high levels. Tariff and non-tariff barriers are generally low to moderate. Infrastructure quality and services sector competitiveness range from fair to excellent. Using a standard gravity model, the authors find that trade flows in Southeast Asia are particularly sensitive to transport infrastructure and information and communications technology. The results suggest that the region could make significant economic gains from trade facilitation reform. These gains could be considerably larger than those from comparable tariff reforms. Estimates suggest that improving port facilities in the region, for example, could expand trade by up to 7.5% or $22bn. The authors interpret this as an indication of the vital role that transport infrastructure can play in enhancing intra-regional trade.     

Effects of remittances on food security in sub-Saharan Africa

The objective of this research was to analyze the effects of remittances on food security in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), while assessing the role of governance. The analyses covered a panel of 26 SSA countries over the period from 2002 to 2017. Based on the double least squares method, two main results were obtained. On the one hand, remittances have a positive effect on overall food security and on each of its dimensions in SSA. On the other hand, this positive effect of remittances on food security and its dimensions is increasingly important when the quality of governance improves.     

Impact of trade cost on China-EU agri-food trade

In this research, we investigate trade costs in relation to China-EU trade in agri-food products during 2001–2015. Major components of trade cost include transportation costs, border-related policy barriers such as tariffs, and local distribution costs. Our results indicate that trade costs between China and EU involving agri-food products, although falling, remain abnormally high. Consequently, we find that trade cost reductions contribute to over half of the overall China-EU trade growth. Our decomposition technique demonstrates that economic growth and trade cost reductions are the key drivers of China-EU trade expansion. Implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) would reduce high trade costs to increase EU-China bilateral agricultural trade significantly. This is not fully captured in the gravity models where a static distance is usually used as a proxy to trade cost. The BRI will not reduce the distance, but it will cut transportation and other components of trade cost for China-EU trade.     

Relational patterns of urbanisation and economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa

Scholars of economic development have always hinted that the urbanisation process in the developing world does not follow the historical patterns discerned in the developed world where a strong relationship between a country's gross domestic product and urbanisation had been observed. To confirm or refute this thesis, this study considers the pattern of relationships between the national economic growth rate and urbanisation rates in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries. Comparison is made between SSA countries and emerging and developed economies. Results indicate that whereas the traditional thesis still holds for SSA countries (i.e. they urbanise without economic growth), new antithetical trends are also discernible where urbanisation takes place with economic growth, thereby revealing a whole new dimension of urbanisation and economic growth relational patterns in Africa.     

Dynamics of maternal union dissolution and childhood mortality in sub-Saharan Africa

ABSTRACT

The family setting has implications for child survival. In this study, the dynamics of maternal union dissolution and childhood mortality were investigated in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Birth history data of 235 454 children from the most recent Demographic and Health Survey conducted in 23 SSA countries were analysed using life table techniques and piecewise exponential hazards models. The results revealed that the childhood mortality rates were 35 vs 32 per 1000 live births (one month), 61 vs 54 per 1000 (11 months) and 95 vs 86 per 1000 (48 months) for children of women in marital dissolution compared with those with intact marriages. Despite controlling for background variables, the risk of under-five mortality was significantly higher among children of women in marital dissolution (relative risk?=?1.35, confidence interval: 1.30–1.40). The effect of dissolution on childhood mortality has not changed since the 1990s. Marital stability is an important social structure for child survival.     

The Impacts of Economic Freedom and Institutional Quality on Migration from African Countries

The previous empirical literature suggests that socio-economic conditions and demographic pressures are triggering factors of migration from Africa. We propose that economic freedom and institutional quality indicators of African countries are also important determinants of out-migration from Africa. Hence, we investigate the effect of economic freedom and institutional quality on migration flow from 44 African countries to major migration destination countries. Aggregate indicators are derived for the quality of institutions and economic freedom using principal component analysis. Controlling for source and destination countries' income levels, population size, cultural, historical and physical distance, our findings provide evidence that migration flow from Africa is significantly determined by the institutional quality and economic freedom indicators in African countries. Our results are strongly robust to different econometric techniques used to control for sample selection bias, zero-valued observations and endogeneity concern. Hence, improving institutional quality and maintaining economic freedom in African countries matters significantly to control out-migration from Africa.     

Overall trade specialization and economic development: countries diversify

This paper provides evidence for an aspect of trade often disregarded in international trade research: countries’ sectoral export diversification. The results of our semiparametric empirical analysis show that, on average, countries do not specialize; on the contrary, they diversify. Our results are robust for different statistical indices used to measure trade specialization, for the level of sectoral aggregation, and for the level of smoothing in the nonparametric term associated with per capita income. Using a generalized additive model (GAM) with country-specific fixed effects it can be shown that, controlling for countries’ heterogeneity, sectoral export diversification increases with income.

中美科技“脱钩”下高新技术产品进出口贸易的影响因素分析——基于20个国家和地区贸易数据的引力模型

近年来,中美关系收紧,美对华科技领域的遏制行为愈演愈烈。美国不仅对华高技术出口采取一系列的管制措施,还对自中国进口的高新技术产品做加征关税的限制。基于此,对中国高新技术产品的进出口贸易特征做深入研究,研究结果发现,中国高新技术产品的进出口结构比较单一。在主要伙伴国进出口贸易数据的基础上,利用引力模型对影响高新技术产品进出口的因素做进一步的实证研究。结果显示：国家创新力和对外开放度的提升对高新技术产品的出口均具有促进作用;且增加高新技术产品的出口有助于改变中国在外贸上大而不强的现状,提升在全球价值链中的地位。     

China's impact on South African trade and inflation

There has been much controversy about the impact of Chinese growth on the rest of the world. It is generally accepted that China has a dampening effect on global inflation through the supply of cheap products. On the other hand, imports from China could displace domestic production and hence have adverse effects on economic growth and employment. Thus, the question of whether a country benefits from trading with China is a country-specific issue. The results in this paper indicate that limited short-term costs have resulted from the strengthening of trade relations between South Africa and China. As far as inflation is concerned, the paper does not find convincing empirical evidence at the aggregate level for inflation in China leading to domestic price changes. At the disaggregate level, however, there appear to be stronger sector-specific linkages between prices in China and South Africa.     

The Mistreated Model: Some Technical Comments on Porojan's Paper on 'Trade Flows and Spatial Effects'

The paper by Porojan on 'Trade flows and spatial effects' in a recent issue of this journal is criticized on three methodological grounds: it includes two of the gravity model independent variables as relative rather than absolute numbers; the dummy variables included are not binary but interval; and the 'sample' of countries creates a non-normal distribution of inter-country distances, undoubtedly creating heteroscedasticity problems. Because of these three problems, the model is mis-specified, and the results thereby obtained are unreliable.     

The role of innovation and opportunity in bilateral OECD trade performance

This paper investigates the specialization pattern in terms of technology and exports and examines the role of innovation intensity and technological opportunity in determining bilateral trade at the aggregate and sectoral level. Some of the major findings are: At the aggregate level, innovation intensity and technological opportunity has positive and significant impact on bilateral trade performance especially during the 1990s. At the sectoral level, innovation intensity affects bilateral trade performance positively mainly in the high-technology sectors. There is also a positive and significant relationship between technological opportunity and bilateral trade for five of the eighteen sectors, which are the high-technology sectors. JEL no. F14, C31, O33     

Preferential trade agreements between asymmetric countries: Free trade areas (with rules of origin) vs. customs unions

This paper examines differences in welfare implications between a free trade area (FTA) and a customs union (CU) for member countries differing in their market sizes. In a stylized three-country model of trade under oligopoly, we take into account the conditions that FTA members set external tariffs to induce their exporting firms to comply with rules of origin (ROO) within the trade bloc. This approach rules out trade deflection and regime switches in forming an effective FTA. The key findings are as follows: (i) Unless the difference in market size is too large and ROO are too restrictive, an FTA can be welfare-improving to countries with market size differential. (ii) The formation of a preferential trade agreement (either an FTA or a CU) is more likely to emerge between countries of similar market size. However, forming a CU allows for a greater degree of market size asymmetry than forming an FTA. (iii) Compared to the pre-PTA equilibrium, the greater reductions in external tariffs under an FTA than under a CU remain valid even for the case with market size asymmetry and preferential ROO. As such, a non-member country is relatively better off under an FTA. (iv) World welfare is higher under an FTA than under a CU when the market size asymmetry is moderate and ROO are less restrictive.