A review of recent developments and applications of partial equilibrium models of the forest sector

Recent history has seen an increase in the utilization of partial equilibrium based forest sector models to identify potential impacts of various policies or timber market shocks. These models are particularly useful in that they employ economic theory to capture the interaction of supply and demand in a framework where commodity prices are endogenous to the policy or shock simulated. We present recent developments and linkages between models and review applications of these models to forest policy questions over the previous decade. We conclude with a discussion of potential future directions for such research.     

The impact of Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) on land and property values: A meta-analysis

Throughout the world, Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) has become a popular transit solution for cities wanting to improve urban mobility and economic opportunities through land and property value uplift (LVU). However, the relevant literature reports a mixed impact of BRT on land and property values. This research aims to explain the variation in impacts by conducting a meta-analysis of 23 empirical studies which have estimated the amount of LVU that is attributable to BRT. Using a random-effects model, four categories of factors that may influence estimates of BRT impacts are analysed: BRT system characteristics; land type and accessibility; research methods; and the spatial and temporal characteristics of the case study. Several factors were found to have a statistically significant impact on estimated LVU impacts from BRT systems including maturity of the BRT system; property or land; type of value (asking price, assessed price or sales price); the distance to BRT stations; the research method; and the geographical location of the BRT system. Using the quantifiability advantages of meta-analysis techniques, we further conducted a broad comparison between our results and the findings from one previous meta-analysis study on Rail-Based Transit (RBT), and discussed how the LVU impact differs between BRT and RBT. The findings from this research suggest several key recommendations for future studies into the impact of BRT on land and property values. They also inform policy analyses on transit funding through land and property value gains.     

Droughts and farms’ financial performance: a farm‐level study in New Zealand

We quantify the impacts of droughts in New Zealand on the profitability of dairy, sheep and beef farms using a comprehensive administrative database of all farms in New Zealand. For dairy farms, we found that drought events have positive impacts on dairy farms’ revenue and profit in the year of the drought. This effect is most likely attributable to drought‐induced increases in the export price of milk solids, as New Zealand is the market maker in this global market and almost all domestic dairy production is exported. All of these quantified impacts, however, are not very large, suggesting that, at this point in time, droughts have a fairly moderate impact on New Zealand dairy and sheep–beef businesses.     

Rules for the governance of coastal and marine ecosystem services: An evaluative framework based on the IAD framework

There is an increasing need for a comprehensive institutional understanding pertaining to ecosystem services (ESs) in coastal and marine fields. This paper develops a systematic framework to inform coastal and marine governance about the integration of ES concepts. First, as a theoretical basis, we analyze the generic rules that are part of the Institutional Analysis and Development (IAD) framework. Second, by an extensive literature review, we formulate a set of ES-specific rules and develop an evaluative framework for coastal and marine governance. Third, we examine this evaluative framework in a specific action situation, namely coastal strategic planning concerning Qingdao, China. Results from the literature review and the case study reveal that when designing ES-specific rules for coastal and marine governance, there are several socio-spatial and economic aspects that should be taken into account: (1) conceive of stakeholders as ES users, (2) capture the effect of ecological scaling, (3) understand ES interactions and clarify indirect impacts and causalities, (4) account for ES values, and (5) draw on economic choices for use rights to deal with ES issues.     

How drought affects the financial characteristics of Australian farm businesses

The financial performance of 240 farms in a drought‐affected agricultural region of Australia is analysed. The decadal study period included some years of widespread drought, as well as years with only subregional droughts or no drought. Some droughts created larger adverse financial impacts than others. Mostly, the more droughts farms experienced, the worse was their financial performance relative to farms within the same quantile of farm performance. Despite the incidence of drought, by the end of the decade, almost all the farm businesses were wealthier from increasing their farm size and becoming more crop dominant. Unexpectedly, consecutive years of drought had a significant positive effect on the operating profit per hectare and retained profit per hectare of farms in a majority of their respective quantiles. Many farms that experienced consecutive drought were forced to make structural changes, shifting away from livestock production towards additional cropping. These structural changes boosted farm performance over the decade. The incidence of drought affected some measures of farm performance differently whilst others were affected similarly. Understanding these metrics of farm performance and the structural changes underway in an agricultural region helps form a more complete view of drought impacts.     

El Niño,La Niña,and world coffee price dynamics

Coffee is produced in equatorial and subequatorial regions of the world, which are also most affected by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO events have a tendency to amplify weather conditions such as droughts or excess precipitation in the affected regions, resulting in production shortage or excess supply, subsequently impacting agricultural commodity prices. In this research we assess effects of ENSO events on world coffee price dynamics using the monthly data between March 1989 and December 2010. We employ smooth transition autoregression framework to examine nonlinear dynamics of ENSO and coffee prices, and illustrate the results of this research using generalized impulse‐response functions. We find that ENSO events indeed have short‐term impacts on coffee prices. The research findings are of interest to coffee producers and intermediaries in the coffee markets as well as researchers in the fields of environmental and development economics.     

Does research applying the DPSIR framework support decision making?

The Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework was developed in the late 1990s to structure and organize indicators in a meaningful way. Since then, the framework has increasingly been applied in research projects with the aim of supporting decision making. A number of attributes of the framework regarding structuring and communication issues in research further strengthen its original purpose of bridging the science policy gap. We reviewed several studies that were mainly concerned with criticism and drawbacks of the DPSIR framework. Based on these studies and our own experiences in applying the DPSIR framework in an EU project to develop a decision support tool, we developed two criteria that we believe are crucial for policy relevant research: (a) the development of conceptual models integrating knowledge from different disciplines, specialists and policy makers, as well as those affected by their decisions; and (b) the potential to explain the results and analysis of research to different disciplines, specialists, stakeholders and the public and to demonstrate alternatives and provide decision options. We analyzed 21 studies using the DPSIR framework with regard to their relevance for decision making. We analyzed the definitions of the five DPSIR elements and whether specific end users were addressed in the respective studies. We found that in many studies, the DPSIR elements were defined in literature review or by researchers and that only a few studies targeted specific government authorities as users of research results. Eight out of 21 studies applied transdisciplinary research concepts and integrated broad ranges of stakeholder opinions and values into the research. Nine out of 21 studies presented alternative outcomes to decision makers and used the valuation of these outcomes by stakeholders to add further support to the decision-making process. The different positive and negative implications of the DPSIR framework are discussed with reference to research that supports policy making. Finally, we conclude that studies employing DPSIR may provide effective solutions for “real world problems” by taking into account additional criteria based on knowledge integration, stakeholder involvement and the provision of alternatives. Therefore, DPSIR is a useful tool to support decision making by means of showing solid evidence with alternatives and decision options, rather than by presenting predetermined solutions.     

中国建设用地配置中政府失灵的理论解析及其改良框架设计

研究目的:剖析中国建设用地配置中不同政府失灵的成因、影响与相互关系,探索相适宜的综合性改良框架及实现路径,为国家建设用地配置优化改革提供参考。研究方法:文献研究、逻辑分析与框架设计。研究结果:中国当前的建设用地配置存在两种政府失灵,并且这两种政府失灵涉及不同类别的政策问题,因而单一的技术性对策无法达到理想的解决效果,故需要依据不同的问题特征,设计构建综合性的政府失灵改良框架进行指导作用。研究结论:中国建设用地配置同时存在政府失灵Ⅰ与政府失灵Ⅱ。前者发生于政府内部,以央地关系失衡下建设用地计划管理机制失效为特征;后者发生于政府外部,以政府过度干预市场机制、扭曲土地资源配置为特征。对应于这两种政府失灵,本文设计涵盖6类调控工具的综合性改良框架。其中,针对政府失灵Ⅰ,主要有观念性调控、规划性调控和经济性调控3类,其可行路径包括转变形成目标相容的管控理念、构建国土空间规划体系、引入指标交易与管理平台等;针对政府失灵Ⅱ,主要有规则性调控、探索性调控和产权性调控3类,其可行路径包括健全土地市场运行规则、探索创新存量土地开发模式、构建现代土地产权体系等。     

Economic impacts of closing national forests for commercial timber production in Florida and Liberty County

The paper assesses the impacts of a proposed policy, which suggests a ban on commercial timber harvest in the US national forests. Specifically, this study examines the effect of this policy on a small forest dependent county (Liberty County) in Florida and Florida State by applying a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The results indicate that the proposed policy would decrease overall economic output by $5 million in Liberty County. The decrease in economic output at the state level in response to this policy is only $1 million. Results suggest that the welfare index in response to the proposed policy will drop by 2.9% in Liberty County while the change at the state level is negligible. At the county level, where limited alternate opportunities for labor and capital mobility, the negative effect of the proposed policy is shown to have a multiplying effect.     

A review of the economic impact of malaria in agricultural development

This paper surveys the linkages between malaria and agriculture, focusing on the economic impacts of the disease. We adopt Negin's (2005) conceptual framework to examine the potential impacts of malaria in the agricultural sector, including both direct and indirect impacts. In addition to health care costs, malaria causes loss of agricultural labor and slows adoption of improved practices in agriculture. Furthermore, some agricultural practices and development interventions are known to facilitate the spread of malaria, exacerbating its impacts. Given the importance of both agriculture and malaria in developing countries, especially in Africa, the interaction between them could be a significant factor in economic growth. The review identifies gaps in past research on this topic. A better understanding of malaria's impact on agricultural productivity, coupled with efforts to strengthen capacity to deal with malaria, would enhance policies and programs aimed at combating malaria and curbing its impacts on agricultural productivity.     

Natural resource accounting in theory and practice: A critical assessment

In this paper an extensive review of the theoretical and applied literature on natural resource accounting (NRA) is provided. The review begins by explaining the economic theory that underpins NRA, contrasting welfare and sustainability as policy goals, and presenting various distinct conceptions of national income. The state of play regarding official revisions to the system of national accounts (SNA) with respect to natural resources and the environment is presented and controversial areas are highlighted. Finally, the economic literature on proposed revisions, and applied studies that have proceeded using these methods, is summarised and critiqued. We argue that much of the literature proceeds with weak conceptual foundations, and that typical case studies produce results that are ambiguous in interpretation. Moreover, we highlight fundamental tensions between economic theory and national accounting methodology, and conclude that one outcome of this has been the insufficient attention paid by economists to the revisions to the SNA; instead devoting time and effort to 'freelance' NRA case studies utilising sometimes ad hoc methods from the economic literature.     

Commodity futures markets: a survey

This review article describes the main contributions in the literature on commodity futures markets. It is argued that modern studies have focused primarily on technical questions, with insufficient economic content. More research needs to be directed towards understanding fundamental economic issues such as why so few farmers hedge, the impacts of government farm programs on commodity futures, and the market impacts of commodity pools. The literature has failed to explain the prevalence of inverted markets in grains and oilseeds, and there is unexplainable price volatility in markets such as hogs and orange juice.     

Integrated regional impact assessment of agricultural trade and domestic environmental policies

It remains challenging to derive general findings and conclusions from either economic theory or empirical studies on the relationship between international trade and the regional environment. Consequently, we aim to analyse environmental effects of agricultural trade policies in the Austrian Marchfeld region. We apply an integrated modelling framework that accounts for heterogeneity in agricultural production and environmental outcomes. Scenario analysis is applied to assess regional impacts of different trade policy scenarios. Sensitivity analyses reveal the relative influence of model parameters on outputs. The results indicate that lower domestic tariffs have small beneficial effects on the regional environment. The regional environmental impacts highly depend on the changes in world crop prices through global trade agreements. A laissez-faire market scenario that includes the elimination of trade barriers and agri-environmental payments (AEPs) leads to substantial environmental deterioration. Hence, the alignment of AEPs with WTO trading rules remains an important issue in the trade and environment debate.     

林业政策的制定与创新文献综述

搜集大量相关文献,分析比较了世界各国学者在林业政策方面进行的研究,介绍了世界主要国家林业政策的特点,就林业政策的制定、检验、评估的相关研究以及在森林管理实践中发展起来的社区森林模式、REDD机制和可持续森林管理理念进行了综述,最后阐述了少量学者在林业政策理论方面所做的研究。通过综述发现,对林业政策的评估与检验未形成有代表性的方法,对林业政策在实施环节的问题亦缺乏深入研究。     

A systematic framework of location value taxes reveals dismal policy design in most European countries

Location values have long been recognized as an attractive instrument to raise municipal revenues. First, they increase fiscal efficiency and equability compared to traditional property taxes. Second, they can be used to enhance sustainable urban planning. The question of how to design a location value tax has long been discussed in various strands of literature, but there are few efforts to create multidisciplinary approaches. This lack of reconciliation hampers the discussion on optimal designs that includes all economic, social and environmental considerations. Here we combine literature on public finances, urban economics and value capture with that of sustainable urban planning to narrow this gap. We develop a framework to assess the design characteristics of location value taxes from a sustainability perspective, and apply this framework to assess current practices in Europe. The analysis reveals severe shortcoming in policy design in most European countries, although Denmark provides a more promising example. Nonetheless, location value taxes have a high potential for improving sustainable urban planning.     

ITTO项目江城试验示范点社会经济效益初步评价

以江城县为案例点,通过抽样技术和实地调研,获得样本点近几年的社会与经济数据资料,采取比较分析方法对江城县ITTO一期项目实施前、后的当地社会与经济影响进行评价,结果表明ITTO项目在江城县的实施给当地林业行政部门及试验林周边社区的各利益主体带来了不同的社会、经济收益。但通过分析也发现,由于项目实施时间和试验面积的局限,使得项目受益群体较小,影响面积也较窄,进而表现了对实施第二期ITTO项目的渴望。     

Is Bt Cotton a Pro‐Poor Technology? A Review and Critique of the Empirical Record

Policy makers, journalists and other commentators have hailed genetically modified (GM) crops as a ‘pro‐poor’ success in the developing world. Their confidence appears to be justified by the encouraging conclusions reached by academic studies on the performance and impacts of GM crops, which seem to provide convincing evidence of substantial benefits for smallholders in developing countries. However, a detailed, critical examination of studies on transgenic, insect‐resistant cotton in China, India and South Africa demonstrates that the technology's impacts have been evaluated and represented in selective and misleading ways. The performance and impacts of GM crops have in fact been highly variable, socio‐economically differentiated and contingent on a range of agronomic, socio‐economic and institutional factors. The shortcomings of the GM crop‐impacts literature have done a disservice to public and policy debates about GM crops in international development and impeded the development of sound, evidence‐based policy.     

A general equilibrium analysis of conjunctive ground and surface water use with an application to Morocco

Groundwater resources (GW) account for nearly 30% of the world's sustainable water supplies. Yet, this resource, which is fraught with externalities, has largely been left unregulated. The economic literature on GW is predominantly of a partial equilibrium type. We analyze GW regulation in a general equilibrium setting, focusing on the stabilization value of GW under natural (drought) and economic (rural–urban water transfer) shocks. A general equilibrium approach allows evaluating direct and indirect effects of GW regulation on agriculture and nonagriculture sectors and extends the scope for water policy. The analysis is applied to Morocco by extending an existing computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to include ground and surface water (SW) resources. We study effects of (i) an increase in GW extraction cost (e.g., as a result of prolonged extraction beyond natural recharge that lowers the aquifer's water table), (ii) a transfer of SW from rural (irrigation) to urban (domestic) use, and (iii) a reduction of water availability due to severe drought. We estimate the value of GW and assess the direct (partial equilibrium) and indirect (general equilibrium) impacts. We find that GW plays a critical role in mitigating the negative effects of these types of shocks.     

PDO Olive Oil Products: A Powerful Tool for Farmers and Rural Areas

Abstract

Nowadays, consumers’ quality awareness and health consciousness drive the agri-food market towards a consumer-response food market. As a result, many producers and firms in the Euro-Mediterranean countries have opted for several quality and origin assurance schemes. Among them, a prevalent role is played by the Protected Designation of Origin (PDO) certification that constitutes a successful differentiation tool for agricultural products, and it is also widely used by Euro-Mediterranean olive oil producers due to effective contribution in promoting high-quality olive oil. After going through previous studies of PDO olive oil, this review paper investigates the general aspects and prospects of PDO olive oil products and EU relevant regulations, highlighting the socio-economic dimensions and impacts upon producers, consumers, and rural areas, and determining the gap between literature and practice with regards to PDO’s implementation and the expected benefits. Finally, the paper concludes with the main points and recommendations for further research.     

Evolution of land distribution in the context of development theories

Land distribution is the main core of economic development analysis. The main objectives of land distribution are the improvement of living standards in rural areas, redistribution of land by developing new land registration, redistributing income through job creation, and increasing the productivity of agricultural products. This paper discusses different land distribution programs and outlines the major demands for development theories. It delivers a review of land policies and rigorous case-studies evidence from a global perspective. It also presents a review of historical and sociopolitical literature to evaluate the trend of land distribution, agro-ecological potential of development theories, and various policy debates on land use. In addition, the paper provides a coherent review of case studies to analyze different development theories regarding the concept of land distribution. This paper concludes that development theories support multiple understandings of property rights, including community and policy debates regarding poverty alleviation in poor regions. Moreover, it conceptualized that development theories are urgently needed to prevent people from being driven out of their land. However, it is unlikely that land distribution is the most efficient policy and political framework in contexts. Therefore, traditional land distribution programs need to be revised considering development theories.