历史警示

<正>全球金融危机发生后,发达国家增长乏力.包括新兴市场国家在内的发展中国家成为推动全球经济增长的动力。新的发展机遇正在推动越来越多的发展中国家走出"中等收入陷阱"。拉美和东亚部分国家的经历可以为发展中国家提供一些历史镜鉴。拉美国家的陷入"中等收入陷阱"这一概念最早由世界银行在2006年提出,意指各经济体赖以从低收入经济体成长     

外商直接投资和经济增长的关系研究

理论研究普遍认为外商直接投资对经济增长产生了积极的影响,但对外商直接投资如何影响新兴工业化国家的发展过程的具体机制却研究甚少。本文从新兴工业化国家的视角提出并验证了有关外商直接投资对经济增长作用的两个假设:(1)外商直接投资有利于减小国内生产的非效率,是提高生产技术效率的推动器;(2)外商直接投资有利于加快国内技术进步,是生产前沿的移动器。因为这种双重作用,所以外商直接投资是新兴工业化国家赶超世界发达国家的一个重要因素。中国过去几十年经济快速的发展为验证这两个假设提供了一个理想的范例。     

中国制造业的垂直专业化与出口增长

基于Hummelsetal.(2001)的分析框架,本文利用OECD(2009)提供的投入产出数据库,测算了中国制造业的垂直专业化水平,估计了中国制造业出口增长的来源,并与31个其他经济体进行了比较。测算结果表明:(1)中国制造业的垂直专业化水平较低,但增长迅速,从1995年的0.151上升到2005年的0.261,增长了72.39%,高于绝大多数国家和地区;(2)中国高技术制造业的垂直专业化水平从1995年的0.177,提高到2005年的0.411,增长了131.5%,几乎高于所有其他国家和地区。对制造业出口增长来源的估计发现:(1)中国制造业出口增长的28.85%来自国外增加值的贡献,高于所有的发展中国家,但比大多数发达国家低;(2)中国高技术制造业出口增长的41.2%来自国外增加值的贡献,高于所有发展中国家,超过或接近多数发达国家。     

新兴经济体参与全球价值链的生产率效应

对于新兴经济体来说,参与全球价值链分工的成效是否与发达国家的经验一致?什么类型的国家(经济体)才能从参与全球价值链中获益?文章在区分不同新兴经济体类型和不同GVC参与方式的基础上,深入细致地研究了不同类型的新兴经济体如何通过参与GVC来提高全要素生产率(TFP).研究发现:(1)GVC总体参与度的增加能显著提高中等发达新兴经济体及中国的TFP,但不能提高新兴经济体全样本和发展中新兴经济体的TFP,表明参与GVC的生产率效应取决于新兴经济体的发展程度及在GVC中的位置.(2)来自不同发展程度国家的国外增加值对TFP的影响不同,其中来自发达国家的国外增加值对各类型新兴经济体的TFP都有促进作用,说明与发达国家的GVC关联对新兴经济体TFP的增长更有效.(3)进入国界不同次数的国外增加值对TFP的影响不同,其中进入国界仅一次的国外增加值对TFP没有显著提升作用,进入国界多次的国外增加值才有生产率提高效应,说明只有深度参与型的GVC参与方式才能提高新兴经济体的TFP.文章为中国参与GVC过程中如何适应国情以及适当调整参与方式来提高自身的TFP提供了经验借鉴.     

制度环境、吸收能力与新兴经济体OFDI逆向技术溢出效应——基于中国省际面板数据的门槛检验

现有研究关于新兴经济体OFDI是否存在显著逆向技术溢出效应并未取得一致结论,且转型期中国省际经济和制度发展存在"非均衡推进"特征,在此背景下,文章以中国这一新兴经济体为例,运用省际面板数据和非线性门槛回归模型,实证研究了母国制度环境(包括法制化水平、知识产权保护力度和政府治理水平等)和吸收能力(包括经济发展、技术创新能力、人力资本和对外开放程度等)对新兴经济体OFDI逆向技术溢出效应的影响及其门槛效应特征.研究结果表明:(1)OFDI逆向技术溢出效应可促进母国技术进步,且在各区域制度环境和异质吸收能力影响下呈现出地区差异,积极而显著的逆向技术溢出效应发生在东部地区,而非西部地区;(2)制度环境和吸收能力是新兴经济体能否获取OFDI逆向技术溢出效应的重要因素,且存在非线性门槛效应,在法制化水平、知识产权保护力度和经济发展水平的门槛条件下,OFDI逆向技术溢出效应的边际效应趋于平缓.因此,新兴经济体应鼓励技术寻求型OFDI,优化OFDI区域空间布局;推进市场化改革,提升母国自身的制度环境质量;提高对东道国技术溢出的异质吸收能力,从而促进新兴经济体自主技术创新能力的形成与提升.     

新兴经济体当前宏观经济运行分析

新兴经济体在世界经济中的地位正在不断加强,一个最为突出的标志是,由新兴经济体和主要发达国家组成的20国集团取代七国集团(G7)或八国集团(G8)转变为国际经济合作的主要论坛。本文将20国集团中的11个发展中国家作为新兴经济体的代表,分析其经济形势变化     

中国服务业垂直专业化份额及来源

垂直专业化是衡量跨国生产分工的重要指标,服务业垂直专业化份额及来源是全球价值链研究中的重要内容.笔者利用世界投入产出数据,测算了中国服务业整体和行业层面的垂直专业化份额及其国别(地区)来源.研究发现:中国服务业整体垂直专业化份额呈上升趋势,出口中的国外增加值来源呈现多元化趋势;新兴工业经济体和部分发达国家是中国服务业出口中国外增加值的主要来源地;来自新兴市场经济体的国外增加值份额增长较快,与中国服务业形成垂直专业化分工的潜力较大.     

热眼聚焦世行否决权改变

<正>国际经济格局变化的产物2000年以来,新兴经济体和发展中国家的经济增长速度一直大幅高于发达国家。其中,在2007年,前者的整体经济增速达到了8.3%,远远高于后者的2.8%;在全球金融危机爆发以来,新兴经济体和发展中国家的整体经济增长也依然保持着上升态势,与发     

环境约束条件下的中国粮食全要素生产率增长与分解——基于省域面板数据与序列Malmquist-Luenberger指数的观察

本文利用1978-2010年国内省域面板数据,在使用单元调查评估法计算各省份DMU粮食生产污染排放量的基础上,利用方向性距离函数和序列DEA技术,测度了中国粮食生产是否考虑环境因素两种情形下的全要素生产率指数,并进一步分解为技术效率变化和技术进步。研究结果表明,是否考虑环境污染成本对于测算结果有较大影响,这对于政策导向意义重大;两种情形下全要素生产率增长贡献有限,主要靠技术进步单独贡献,并同时存在技术进步与效率损失并存的现象,粮食增长成本与代价相对高昂;从经济增长、资源与环境的协调程度来看,国内东中西部地区差异明显,东部地区表现最优的同时,西部地区的粮食生产扮演了"双重恶化"与失衡的角色。     

中国与新兴经济体间的贸易发展

正进入21世纪以来,世界经济最重要的转变就是发展中国家的群体性崛起。两大阵营经济实力的此消彼长使得2012年发展中国家的GDP总和第一次超过发达国家,发展中国家成为世界经济、全球贸易增长的主要推动力。新兴经济体作为发     

The Southeast Asian Economies in the Age of Discontent

This paper investigates the effects on and responses of five middle‐income Southeast Asian economies to the current global environment of authoritarian populism, the retreat from economic liberalism, and the appeal of anti‐globalization movements. While the political histories and institutional capabilities of the five – Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam – vary greatly, these economies have a history of at least moderately fast economic growth for extended periods, and of increasing regional and global economic integration. We argue that most of the factors behind the discontent with globalization in the rich economies are not present to the same degree in these countries, and that there has therefore been no major retreat from the economic policy settings that have underpinned their past economic success. However, there are no grounds for complacency. Economic growth is slowing in some of the countries, economic insecurity remains widespread, and the development of durable independent institutions has lagged economic growth.     

Thresholds in finance–growth nexus: Evidence from G‐7 economies

This study explores the finance and economic growth nexus in G‐7 economies as these countries experience significantly higher levels of financial development. Using a balanced panel of 31 years from 1983 to 2013, we provide new evidence on the finance–growth relationship. We show the presence of nonlinearity as there is an inverted U‐shaped relationship between finance and growth in the long run. Estimating the thresholds in the finance–growth nexus, we notice that there exists a threshold effect of finance at 109% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). We observe that exceeding the threshold would hinder the countries instead of furthering economic growth as too much finance is harmful. Based on the panel Granger causality test results, we claim that financial development should be associated with optimal growth performance. Our findings for the G‐7 economies offer some useful policy inferences to the emerging and developing economies in designing their financial development strategies.     

Viewpoint: From cities to productivity and growth in developing countries

Abstract.  This paper reviews the evidence about the effects of urbanization and cities on productivity and economic growth in developing countries using a consistent theoretical framework. As in developed economies, there is strong evidence that cities in developing countries bolster productive efficiency. Regarding whether cities promote self-sustained growth, the evidence is suggestive but ultimately inconclusive. These findings imply that the traditional agenda of aiming to raise within-city efficiency should be continued. Furthermore, reducing the obstacles to the reallocation of factors across cities is also desirable.     

Capital markets and capital allocation: Implications for economies in transition*

Recent work showing that a sounder financial system is associated with faster economic growth has important implications for transition economies. Stock prices in developed economies move in highly firm‐specific ways that convey information about changes in firms’ marginal value of investment. This information facilitates the rapid flow of capital to its highest value uses. In contrast, stock prices in low‐income countries tend to move up and down en masse, and thus are of scant use for microeconomic capital allocation. Some transition economy markets are coming to resemble those of developed economies, others those of low‐income countries. Stock return asynchronicity is highly correlated with the strength of private property rights in general and public shareholders’ rights in particular. Other recent work suggests that small entrenched elites in low‐income countries preserve their sweeping control over the corporate sectors of their economies by using political influence to undermine the financial system and deprive entrants of capital. The lack of cross‐sectional independence in some transition economies’ stock returns may be a warning of such economic entrenchment. Sound property rights, solid shareholder rights, stock market transparency, and capital account openness appear to check this, and thus contribute to efficient capital allocation and economic growth.     

Banking sector depth and economic growth nexus: a comparative study between the natural resource-based and the rest of the world’s economies

This paper investigates the relationship between banking sector depth and long-term economic growth in the natural resource-based economies vis-à-vis economies that are not dependent on natural resources. For the empirical investigation, a Generalised Method of Moments estimator for dynamic panel data models is adopted for 194 countries spanning the period 1964–2013. Using different measures of banking sector depth and economic growth, the investigation yields three key findings. First, the banking–growth relationship is non-linear and positive within certain levels of banking sector depth in both country groups. Second, the time lag between the change in the level of banking sector depth and the effect on economic growth is shorter in the natural resource-based countries than in the other countries. Finally, the total effect of banking sector deepening on long-term economic growth is weaker in economies with abundant natural resources than in the rest of the world.     

Public infrastructure,production organization,and economic development

We develop a political economy model of growth to examine economic development led by the interactions between an economic decision concerning a firm’s production technology (CRS vs. IRS technology) and a political decision concerning public infrastructure. We show that multiple equilibrium growth paths occur due to differences in expectations regarding the quality of public infrastructure. These multiple paths illustrate why economies with poor initial conditions can catch up to and, furthermore, overtake economies with better initial conditions. Our result could explain the experiences of some East Asian countries where the co-evolution of public infrastructure and industrial transformation spurred economic development.     

AN ATTEMPT TO EXPLAIN DIFFERENCES IN ECONOMIC GROWTH: A STOCHASTIC FRONTIER APPROACH

Total factor productivity (TFP), factor accumulation, and growth are analysed for a panel of 40 countries in 2001–11. TFP growth and technical inefficiency are estimated using a stochastic frontier model. Environmental variables are found to have an important role in explaining differences in inefficiency across countries. Over 2001–11, the general improvement in technical efficiency of countries is almost outweighed by technological regress. Results indicate that differences in factor accumulation between OECD and emerging economies are more important than differences in TFP change to explain differences in economic growth. Results also indicate negative and significant random shocks for the OECD countries.     

Immigration and economic growth: do origin and destination matter?

This article assesses the heterogeneous effects of immigration on economic growth depending on both the origin and the destination countries. Following the development of a growth model augmented by human capital of immigrants, we estimate it in a dynamic panel setup using the system-GMM estimator. We find that the growth-enhancing effect of immigration is significantly larger when immigration flows from developed to developing economies than when it does to those that include both developed and developing economies. We interpret these results as evidence of immigrants from developed countries bringing with them their advanced knowledge into the developing countries.     

Oil consumption and economic efficiency: A comparative analysis of advanced, developing and emerging economies

This paper investigates the economic efficiency-oil consumption relationship in 42 countries during the period 1986-2006. In a first stage by using DEA window analysis countries' economic efficiencies are obtained. In a second stage an econometric analysis based on robust GMM estimators reveals an inverted ‘U’-shape relationship between oil consumption and economic efficiency. In order to capture heterogeneities among countries' development stages the analysis has been separated into two groups (advanced economies and developing/emerging economies). The results show that advanced economies have much higher turning points compared to emerging and developing economies. It appears that oil consumption increases countries' economic efficiency. In addition the consumption patterns of oil products and its derivatives have changed through years and among countries. The different turning points from the econometric analysis indicate the dependence of oil consumption in advanced economies (higher turning points) is driven mainly by household purchasing activities and their standards of living (transport, housing and water, food, etc.). Finally, it appears that oil consumption is the main driver behind the progress of industrialization and urbanization regardless of the country's development stage.