Forecasting and controlling of energy refining process based on multi-factor data barycentre method

A new and useful parameter estimation method is presented, and it is the application to the forecasting and controlling of coal refining process. This method can mostly decrease the errors of the fitting and forecasting results; Moreover, the strict hypotheses in least square method are not necessary in the method, which overcome the shortcoming of least square method and expand the application of multi-factor data barycentre method. Process forecasting and controlling models of coal refining are presented in this paper. From the comparison of multi-factor data barycentre forecasting method with least square method using in fitting and forecasting results of the mathematical model of coal refining process, we can conclude that the multi-factor data barycentre forecasting method is better than traditional least square regression forecasting method.     

Derivative Process Model of Development Power in Industry： Empirical Research and Forecast for Chinese Software Industry and US Economy

Based on the concept and theory of Development Power, this paper analyzes the transferability and the diffusibility of industrial development power, points out that the chaos is the extreme of DP releasing and order is the highest degree of DP accumulating, puts forward A-C strength, the index of adjusting and controlling strength, and sets up the derivative process model for industrial development power on the Partial Distribution By the derivative process model, a kind of time series model, we can describe the process of industrial development effectively, and can forecast the future direction of industry or economy. Finally, by making use of the actual data of Chinese software industry and data of USA GDP （chained） price index, we give the examples of empirical analysis, and forecast the future of Chinese software industry and USA economic development. The conclusions in this paper are believed to be valuable and significant to guide the establishment of the industrial policy and to control the industrial development.     

Prediction of Non-stationary Time Series With Replacement Variables

The experimental comparison of methods of forecasting non-stationary time series by replacing the variables. One of these variables is the phase of the process. Currently, in the direction of the change of variables there were two main approaches to the isolation of stable characteristics of the process, and the band-pass filtering on the empirical mode decomposition--The band-pass filtering. Using a band-pass filter that transmits only the frequencies in a small neighborhood of a selected frequency will provide components with clearly highlighted the basic rhythm. One option for the analytical component of the original series is a discrete wavelet transform （DWT） with getting more approximate and detail the factors on levels of decomposition--0n empirical mode decomposition. Empirical method of decomposition （EMD） is based on the simple assumption that any data consist of a variety of simple domestic species fluctuations （MOD）. Each ＂fashion＂ must be a signal with zero mean, Maxima and minima of positive-negative, i.e., between each maximum and minimum signal x（t） necessarily have his schedule with the direct crossing x = 0. Continue to make the variable phase each fashion is Hilbert decomposition. In both cases, instead of the original series we receive several quasi-stationary series that are projected separately. Projection results are reverse-conversion with predictive component series, which gives the forecast. Difficulty at this stage is the selection of forecasting method for sampling small dimension, because according to our research, the length of the memory of the financial series is extremely small. For the same source data give calculations for both approaches using neural network forecasting and sliding fractal Caterpillar SSA. The results show satisfactory as a prediction.     

Design Patterns and Object-Oriented Models of a Civil Biometric Service System

The number of background and security checks in civil applications has increased dramatically in recent years. Most of those civil applications use the local and federal law enforcement agencies＇ databases. Because of the unpredictable civil application requirements and the development of new technologies, the biometric industry is apposite to use the design patterns and object-oriented analysis in developing and managing such dynamic and complex systems. This article presents the use of the design patterns as a common way to organize objects to make practical design decisions helping to generate flexible, manageable, and agile biometric software architectures. First, a conceptual model is presented modeling an Electronic Fingerprint Service （EFS） for civil applications based on object-oriented design. Then the model is demonstrated by applying design patterns and shows that the system can gain the flexibility and agility to expend and adapt to new biometric technologies and applications in an Electronic Biometric Service （EBS） system. Two cases are used to demonstrate the proposed method. This analysis and design interaction leads to the application of the design patterns by reusing the object created in the EFS model. The two case studies demonstrate how design patterns applied to the EBS model and show they can achieve flexibility and object reusability （agility） while maintaining the integrity and security of the main system model.     

Statistical Model to Forecast the Bangladesh＇s GDP

This paper deals with developing a statistical model, which could accurately forecast Bangladesh＇s GDP. We use regressive analysis with explanatory variables, principal component and lagged variables with other explanatory variables. We find that in case of regression analysis using explanatory variables and principal component, semi logarithmic model and linear model give better results respectively and their forecasting ability is also acceptable. On an average regression analysis with lagged variables i.e. Lagged model is the most accurate model to forecast the Bangladesh＇s GDP, and this model also gives good forecasting performance.     

An input-and output-oriented data envelopment analysis model

Considering the conventional data envelopment analysis （DEA） model used to measure the relative efficiencies of a group of decision making units （DMUs） is limited to either input or output orientation, a new DEA model which is both input-and output-oriented is proposed in this paper. This model can be treated as a multi-objective programming problem and solved by fuzzy sets theory. The basic idea is to describe the efficient frontier with fuzzy observation and determine projections for DMUs on the frontier by using the fuzzy optimization approach. The measurement of efficiencies for DMUs is obtained by comparing the inputs and outputs of DMUs with their projections. Since the input- and output-oriented DEA model can be transformed into a conventional input- or output-oriented DEA model by using special membership functions, it is therefore more adaptive for efficiency measurement. Finally, a typical example is presented to illustrate the computation methods.     

Governance Quality Influence on the Volume of Money in Selected Countries

The main purpose of this paper is to examine the effectiveness of governance quality on the volume of money in the group of selected countries with middle-income1 through using panel data. This paper adopts Random Effects model and Generalized Method of Moments （GMM） as its methodology. Furthermore, the most important factors influencing on the volume of money in the group of selected countries with middle-income have been identified by econometric method. The results of the estimation method with Random Effects and GMM models show that the governance quality has a significant negative effect on the changes of the volume of money in the group of selected countries with middle-income from 1996 to 2009. It is worth considering that the quality of governance in most of these countries lies within the lower level.     

Research on the safety evaluation and optimization of enterprise information

By advancing enterprises information, enterprises can seek the most opportunities to contact with the outside, however, it brings some kinds of problem of enterprises information security, such as latent leakage of information resources due to employee＇s resignation, information resources lost due to abrupt malfunction of hardware equipment, information resources plagiarized by rival because of the low reliability of software, hidden trouble of information safety produced by incomplete system of information safety, etc.. According to the situation, in view of such four factors as hardware, software, stuff, and system, Information Safety-appraising ＆ Optimizing Model of Enterprises Based on Informatization Environments （ISOMEBIE） is presented in this article. The model is solved by the means of Genetic Algorithms （GA）, so its result has much more objectivity. This model can be used to direct enterprises to appraise its information safety, or to compare information safety with its rival. When the safety valve value of enterprises is below the normal level through application in this model, they should immediately take measure to find out and eliminate it, which enterprises can securely and reliably make full use of the results produced by informatization.     

Multi-valued Document Classification Based on Generalized Bradley-Terry Classifiers Utilizing Accuracy Information

Due to the development of computer network, a large amount of documents are treated in many fields. The number of digital document data stored in databases is enormous, accordingly it is difficult for analysts to read all documents and classify it by hand. Therefore, it is necessary to develop the technology of automatic document classification by using computers these days. From the above needs, many classifiers with good performance have been proposed, i.e., Relevance Vector Machine （RVM） and Support Vector Machine （SVM） that are known as good binary classifiers. For multi-valued document classification problems, it is known that a multi-valued classifier by combining several binary classifiers has a good performance. In this study, the method to construct an efficient combination of binary classifiers based on improving Generalized Bradley-Terry （GBT） model, which has high extensibility, is focused. This model is an expansion of Bradley-Terry （BT） model. Though the BT model has a limitation on combination of classes, the GBT model enables us to utilize any binary classifier which classifies into two arbitrary subsets in the class set. Generally, when several binary classifiers learn from the training dataset, there would be the difference of accuracy between these binary classifiers, due to the existence of categories that cannot be easily classified. However, the conventional method of multi-valued classification by GBT binary classifiers does not take the accuracy of each classifier into consideration. To avoid this problem, a new way of multi-valued classification method by considering each classifier＇s accuracy is proposed. The purpose of this study is to construct a good multi-valued classifier by calculating the accuracy of each classifier and utilizing it as the weight. In order to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, the simulation experiment by using newspaper articles is conducted.     

The impact of foreign direct investment and trade on economic growth Taking China, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines ＆ Thailand for example

In this study the authors make efforts to survey the impact of foreign direct investment and trade on the economic growth of five East Asian countries, China, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand. Using an augmented production function （APF） growth model, the authors apply panel data Method and data span is from1980 to 2006. The required data are extracted from World Development Indicator 2008. The result shows that a co-integration relationship between growth and its determinants in the APF model is supported. Firstly, the study shows that with the increasing the inflow of foreign direct investment, positive impact on growth in Thailand, Korea and China is proved. However, this impact is negative in Philippine and Malaysia. Also the impact of trade on economic growth has the same result with FDI impact in sign. Further, the impact of labor force on growth is not significant in these countries and the effect of gross fixed capital on growth is positive and has a very high impact on selected countries.     

The Empirical Analysis of the Reason and the Influence of the Rapid Growth of Foreign Exchange Reserves in China

The fluctuation of Chinese foreign exchange （Forex） reserve is affected by those factors, such as the volume of the Balance of Payments, the M2, the balance of external debts and so on. In this paper, the author establishes a model for the fluctuation of China＇s official foreign exchange reserve with the method of econometrics, finding out that it is the surplus of the balance of payments that results in the rapid growth of foreign exchange reserves. Then, this paper uses substantial data to objectively demonstrate the negative impact of position for Forex purchase and its sterilization operation on monetary policy and the economic development of the diverse sectors and regions.     

The Measure for the Management Innovation Performance of Industrial Enterprise of Sichuan Province

Both science and technology are the primary productive forces, and management is the second productivity. An industrial enterprise is an aorta of a country or a regional economic growth, while the level of its management innovation is directly influencing the economic growth rate of the country or the area. The management innovation performance of industrial enterprises mainly embodies the impetus to the country or the regional economic growth of management innovation. To measure the contribution proportion of management innovation to the industrial economic growth of Sichuan, the econometric model was set up by introducing management innovation as exogenous variable to Sichuan industrial economic growth model, and utilizing the relevant data of industrial economic growth of Sichuan, based on Solow＇s residual value method to calculate scientific and technological progress. The results, to some extent, can be used to offer some suggestions to manager＇s decision, and promote the sustainable, stable and well development of the industrial economy of Sichuan.     

Financial Imbalance Index as a New Early Warning Indicator： Methods and Applications in the Chinese Economy

Based on the stylized facts of financial crises and systemic risk accumulation, this paper constructs a new financial imbalance index （FII） from the perspective of endogenous financial cycles and assesses its application in China＇s macro-financial analysis. The results show that the FII is not only an effective index to detect financial imbalances in China＇s economic cycles, but is also more accurate than and plays more of a leading role than conventional indicators, such as the consumer price index, the financial conditions index and the purchasing managers indicator. Empirical analysis shows that the FII can be used as an effective indicator to measure systemic financial risk, and can provide policy-makers and market participants with useful information to make appropriate decisions.     

Networks of queues with infinite servers in each node applied to the management of a two echelons repair system

After a report of results about infinite servers queues, essentially on its busy period, a model is built, using networks of queues with infinite servers in each node, to study a two echelons repair system for example of a fleet of aircraft, shipping or trucks. The customers are the failures, and their service time is the time that goes from the instant at which they occur till they are completely repaired. The failing repairs occur in a base or in a remote station. The whole failures detected in the base are repaired there. Some of the failures detected in the station are repaired there and the others in the base. The results referred above allow the determination of a two echelons repair system performance measures. In this application, models of Carrillo （1991） and Ferreira （1996） are considered, improved and completed. The theory is illustrated with a numerical example.     

The Evolutionary Game Model of Enterprise Competition Strategy Considering Market Share

In this paper, we analyze the limitation of rationality, and on basis of Cournot model, we give a Cournot model with double objectives considering market share （output）, and divide the enterprise competition into two stages： the first stage, the Cournot competition game with double objectives considering market share; the second stage, the evolutionary game based on Nash equilibrium strategy. In an indirect evolutionary approach, we obtain the Evolutionary Stable Strategy （ESS） of CE model, analyze and compare the different results of C model and CE model derived from different hypotheses. CE model is an extensive form of conventional Cournot model, whose structure and equilibrium result is helpful to give more effective explanation and forecast to actual situation. The study approach in this paper, to some extent, is generally applicable to other game models.     

Transition of China＇s Diplomacy and Foreign Relations

The present paper focuses on the transformation of China＇s foreign affairs. The transformation is closely associated with and mutually reinforced by the developmental changes that have taken place in China. China＇s strong economic focus has had a profound effect on its foreign relations and international strategies. With sustained growth over the past three decades （1978-2008）, China has become an important member of the world community. In particular, its influence has been growing in the Asia-Pacific area. China＇s unique developmental model and path are recognized and scrutinized worldwide. The present paper discusses special aspects of foreign aid and also explores the changes in principles of and approaches taken in the application of foreign aid policies. Under dual external and internal pressure, China has to constantly adjust, renew and improve its approach to diplomatic and international relations.     

An Empirical Study on Momentum and Contrarian Effects in Chinese Futures Market

As Chinese futures market is on track of standardized development, its efficiency and related investors＇ strategy have drawn wide attention from scholars worldwide. This paper aims to provide an empirical study on momentum and contrarian effects in Chinese futures market. It investigates how efficient this market has been after decades of development and what investment strategy can be used to obtain significant positive excess return. The analysis is based on weekly and monthly trading data of the major commodity futures listed in three Chinese futures exchanges since January, 1999. By establishing a zero-cost investment trading strategy as testing method, this empirical study shows that contrarian effect is significant in both weekly frequency （short term） and monthly frequency （long term）, and that as the holding period extends, the contrarian effect disappears. It also concludes that the reverse effects in the short term and long term origin from three factors： defective information transfer system, mean reversion in the contrarian effect, and immaturity of investors＇ mentality.     

Tax Rebate and Dividend Payout in Bangladesh

The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of the introduction of 20% tax rebate in 2002 for certain firms on the dividend policy of firms potentially qualifying for this rebate in Bangladesh. A balanced panel data set of 63 non-financial firms of Bangladesh for 14 （1998-2011） years from the Dhaka stock exchange is used for this purpose Newey-West estimator is used to estimate a logit model and the specified model uses binary values of 0 and 1 to identify if it met the tax rebate threshold. The explanatory variables are finn size, log of market value to face value ratio and profitability. A dummy variable was used to separate the pre-rebate period （2003 and before） from post-rebate period （after 2003）. The dummy variable turned out to be insignificant indicating that introduction of the tax rebate had no impact on dividend policy of qualifying firms.     

Application of ANFIS to exchange rate forecasting

The need of exchange rate forecasting in order to preventing its disruptive movements has engrossed many policy-makers and economists for many years. The determinants of exchange rate have grown manifold making its behavior complex, nonlinear and volatile so that nonlinear models have better performance for its forecasting. In this study the accuracy of ANFIS as the nonlinear model and ARIMA as the linear models for forecasting 2, 4 and 8 days ahead of daily Iran Rial/∈ and Rial/US$ was compared. Using forecast evaluation criteria we found that nonlinear model outperforms linear model in all three horizons.