The Stability of European Money Demand: An Investigation of M3H

The paper assesses the stability and predictive performance of a European money demand function as compared to national money demand functions. With respect to the explanatory accuracy, the national functions perform better than the aggregated function. Examination of the residuals of the national money demand equations indicates that currency substitution is not the major cause for the stability of the aggregated money demand function. The aggregate relation mainly seems to reflect German money demand. This conclusion is supported by the instability of aggregated money demand resulting from the exclusion of Germany from the aggregate.     

Currency Substitution and Money Demand in Euroland

This paper tests the stability of the demand for money in the euro-area in the context of an open economy. A sample consisting of quarterly data covering the 1982:2–1999:3 period is considered. The main finding is that the U.S. dollar long-term interest rate plays a significant role in the European money demand relationship. This result holds for different combinations of variables forming the vector auto-regressive system and suggests that international monetary interdependency may be an important factor influencing the ECB monetary policy.This paper draws on an earlier version and was prepared while the author was at the Bank of Portugal (the usual disclaimer applies). It was presented at the 2003 Meeting of the Economic Modelling Network. The author acknowledges Luis Catela Nunes, Carlos Santos, Carlos Robalo Marques, Nuno Alves, and an anonymous referee for their helpful suggestions.     

The Information Contents of Aggregated Money Demand in the EMU

Estimates of aggregated and disaggregated demand-for-money functions in 7 EMU member states show that the aggregated function slightly outperforms the disaggregated functions in explaining the European demand for M3. The aggregated function appears to contain some additional information on money demand in The Netherlands and, to a lesser extent, in France. For the other countries investigated in this study information on aggregated European money demand does not add much to the explanation of demand for money in the individual countries.     

Wealth and the demand for money: Empirical evidence for the Netherlands and Belgium

Summary This paper examines the impact of wealth on the demand for money in The Netherlands and Belgium. The empirical analysis reveals a substantial influence of wealth on the demand for money. For The Netherlands, incorporating wealth effects mitigates the volatility of the monetary picture. For Belgium this is not the case, indicating that interest and inflation rates are very important for understanding the monetary developments.We are indebted to Michel Dombrecht of De Nationale Bank van België for providing the data on wealth for Belgium. Helpful comments by Professors S.K. Kuipers and F.C. Palm are gratefully acknowledged.     

Unobserved firm heterogeneity and the size-exports nexus: Evidence from German panel data

This paper starts from the stylized fact that firm size and exporting tends to be positively related. Using large sets of establishment panel data for three different industries from official statistics, evidence is presented that the familiar picture of an export/sales ratio that increases (at a decreasing rate) with firm size vanishes if unobserved firm heterogeneity is controlled for in a fixed-effects fractional logit regression model. This finding is well in line with the fact that many small firms are “hidden export champions.” JEL no. F10, D21, L60     

北京汽车消费需求的动态分析与预测

北京汽车消费进入快速增长时期,主要是私人汽车消费拉动了汽车消费总量的增长。北京汽车拥有量、私人汽车拥有量与地区人均GDP、人均可支配收入和公路客运量高度相关。计量分析表明,人均GDP、人均可支配收入对北京汽车消费、私人汽车消费的需求弹性影响显著。从长期来看,私人汽车消费需求的长期弹性值均大于1,富有弹性。预测结果显示,私人汽车消费需求仍处于大幅度增长的范围。     

我国人口深度老龄化与老年照护服务需求发展趋势

基于我国人口结构发展趋势预测,2022年我国老龄化率将达到14%,进入深度老龄化社会;到2030年前后老龄化率将达到20%,进入超级老龄化社会。随着人口老龄化和老年人口高龄化不断上升,我国失能半失能老人规模及其比例将由2020年的4564万人和17.11%上升到2030年的6953万人和17.44%,至2050年进一步上升到12606万人和22%。失能半失能老人规模的快速扩大,将引发老年照护服务需求激增,按照90%失能半失能老人由家庭照护、10%由机构照护估算,照护机构护工需求将由2020年的33.8万人增加到2030年的52.2万人和2050年的101万人。考虑到家庭小型化趋势和“421”家庭普遍化趋势,未来由社区、家政、养老机构和医疗护理机构提供照护服务的失能半失能老人比例将会不断提高,老年照护所需护工的规模还会成倍增加,当前的护理人才教育培训机制远不能满足未来老年照护服务的需求。满足未来规模不断扩大、质量要求不断提高的多层次照护服务需求,亟须健全基本养老服务体系,大力发展多元化老年照护服务体系,切实做好护理人才中长期培育发展规划,不断完善老年健康服务体系。     

参保人、缴费年限与养老保险制度框架寻求

按照我国现行城镇职工基本养老保险制度,对个人缴费不足15年的参保人员不予发放基础养老金,使已经参保的很多职工(以农民工为主)仍然被排除在有效保障范围之外。要尽快修改这一规定所决定的部分保障模式,将个人缴费不足15年的职工纳入基础养老金发放范围,实行按缴费年限系数由参保地计发基础养老金的新机制。     

Demand for broad money and expenditure components in Japan: an empirical study

The main objective of the present study is to examine empirically the long-run relation of broad money demand and its determinants in Japan. In contrast with previous study, the present study considers various components of final expenditure demand as determinants that are final consumption goods, expenditure on investment goods and exports. Using quarterly data over the period 1973Q1–2000Q2, the results of the bounds test [J. Appl. Econ. 16 (2001) 289] indicate a stable long-run relationship between demand of real M2 and its determinants. The empirical results also highlight that different domestic demand components yields different effects on Japanese broad money demand behavior. The estimated unrestricted error-correction model appears to track the data well and the results have important policy implications.     

城市住宅适老改造需求的关键影响因素研究

城市住宅适老改造服务体系作为支持居家养老的重要领域在我国尚未形成。文章通过访谈和文本分析,识别出影响城市住宅适老改造需求的18个一般因素;运用主成分分析法提取了3个关键因素,发现居住环境的适老程度与住宅适老改造技术和服务水平是首要的影响因素,住宅适老改造的消费水平和政策支持力度也是影响适老改造需求的关键因素。文章认为,建立并逐步完善住宅适老改造技术服务与质量监管体系、开展适老改造示范工程、探索适老改造市场化服务模式、加强适老改造资金的支持力度等,是形成我国城市住宅适老改造服务体系的有效途径。     

公共财政与省级国库现金管理模式的创新

加强国库现金管理是一种国际趋势。应加强我国现行省级国库现金管理模式创新,按照发展公共财政的要求,借鉴国际通行做法,把国库委托银行代理制改为财政金库制下的银行存款制;完善省级国库现金管理职能,加强政府现金流管理、保持国库最佳现金持有量;进行库底现金余额的投资运作,使国库资金保值、增值。     

ESP及其需求分析原则对高职专业英语教学改革的启示

在介绍ESP及其需求情况的基础上,分析了我国高职专业英语教学的现状及存在的问题。从教学培养目标、教材师资、教学方法与教学模式、教学评估考核体系等方面分析ESP及其需求分析原则对高职专业英语教学改革的启示,以提高高职专业英语教学的效果。     

政府补助、研发投入与文化产业上市公司绩效--基于161家文化上市公司面板数据中介效应实证

文章通过对2011-2013年161家文化产业上市公司面板数据实证研究发现：当期和滞后期政府补助对于文化企业绩效的正向促进作用都得到证实,应该坚持政府补助文化企业的政策不动摇;研发投入在当期和滞后期都能够对政府补助与文化产业上市公司绩效的关系产生显著的正向中介效应,其中当期研发投入对当期政府补助的中介效应达到6.610个单位,占直接效应比重近65%;对滞后期政府补助的中介效应达到2.417个单位,占直接效应比重约为24%。这个结论说明政府补助不应仅用于贴补成本费用,而是要建立政府补助激励文化企业研发投入的引导机制和长效保障机制。此外,为了改善政府补助的政策效果,还需要加强事后监管,构建政府补助后评估机制,落实一系列配套政策,从而促进文化企业持续研发创新、不断增强核心竞争能力。     

经济增长、环境治理与环境质量改善——基于动态面板数据模型的实证分析

文章通过建立省际动态面板数据模型,实证分析了经济增长、环境治理对环境质量改善的潜在影响。结果显示:经济增长与污染排放之间不存在固有的倒U型关系,仅当综合考虑其他潜在因素的影响时,二者之间的关系才呈现出显著倒U型曲线,这意味着经济增长本身不能促使环境质量改善。为缓解当前环境污染问题,在促进经济增长的同时应着力加大环境治理力度,削弱污染排放的累积效应,抑制环境污染,改善环境质量。     

Estimating the export and import demand for manufactured goods: The role of FDI

In this paper we estimate the demand for exports and imports of manufactured goods for a panel containing the majority of the EU countries as well as the United States and Japan. The model includes as explanatory factors both the traditional determinants of trade and also the stock of foreign direct investment (FDI). We apply panel unit root and cointegration tests allowing for heterogeneity. Whereas there is no evidence of cointegration when using just the traditional formulation, the results are favorable to the existence of long-run relationships linking the variables of the augmented model. Moreover, the results point mainly to a complementary relationship between trade and FDI.     

Estimating the export and import demand for manufactured goods: The role of FDI

In this paper we estimate the demand for exports and imports of manufactured goods for a panel containing the majority of the EU countries as well as the United States and Japan. The model includes as explanatory factors both the traditional determinants of trade and also the stock of foreign direct investment (FDI). We apply panel unit root and cointegration tests allowing for heterogeneity. Whereas there is no evidence of cointegration when using just the traditional formulation, the results are favorable to the existence of long-run relationships linking the variables of the augmented model. Moreover, the results point mainly to a complementary relationship between trade and FDI.     

Reflections on the nature and policy implications of planning restrictions on housing supply. Discussion of 'Planning policy, planning practice, and housing supply' by Kate Barker

Planning is about other things as well, but it is fundamentallyan economic activity. It allocates a scarce resource but independentlyof prices or any market information. In analysing the effectsthis allocative mechanism has on housing supply (or, indeed,the supply of buildings for any given use), we need to thinkcarefully about what exactly it is that planning allocates andwhether, in its operation, it creates a constraint on the supplyof what it is allocating. In the British case, our planningsystem does not operate on the supply of housing directly, butindirectly via the constraint imposed on land supply. Giventhe income elasticity of demand for space this has policy implicationsperhaps even more serious than is acknowledged by Barker.     

高管团队薪酬不公平程度及其对公司绩效的影响——基于安徽上市公司的经验分析

文章以安徽上市公司为例研究公司高管团队核心成员与非核心成员之间薪酬不公平程度及其对公司绩效的影响。首先,构建公司高管团队薪酬不公平程度指标,提出高管投入差异和薪酬不公平程度的研究假说。然后,运用2006-2012年安徽上市公司的非平衡面板数据,求出公司高管团队薪酬不公平程度并检验研究假说。最后,对安徽上市公司高管团队薪酬不公平程度和公司绩效之间关系进行了实证研究。研究结果显示,高管团队薪酬不公平程度和公司绩效之间关系处于倒"U"型曲线的上升区域,且接近倒"U"形曲线的顶点位置。