Debt and Punishment: Market Discipline in the Eurozone

This article challenges the conventional wisdom of weak market discipline in Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). In so doing, we empirically analyse the dynamics of market discipline for all 27 EU member states between 1992 and 2007. The existing literature tends to assert that markets discipline governments, without measuring whether the interest punishment markets impose actually has the purported effect on government policy. To better grasp the dynamics of market discipline it is essential to consider both sides. Market discipline is thus understood as a two-sided phenomenon. On the one hand, financial investors react to policy developments. On the other hand, policy-makers react to market signals. We find strong evidence that although the impact of fiscal policy developments on market punishment slightly decreases with monetary integration, government responsiveness to market punishment increases. This runs counter to the conventional narrative of policy-makers banking on bailout from fellow EMU members.     

Introduction to “Economic and Financial Governance in the European Union after a decade of Economic and Political Crises.”

ABSTRACT

This paper offers the Introduction to the Special Issue “Economic and Financial Governance in the European Union after a decade of Economic and Political Crises.” We introduce the five papers. We distill three important lessons they offer for EU integration.     

Monetary and Fiscal Policy-Makers in the European Economic and Monetary Union: Allies or Adversaries?

Optimal monetary and fiscal policies within the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) are determined by simulating a global model under alternative assumptions about the objective function of the European Central Bank (ECB) and about cooperation vs. non-cooperation between monetary and fiscal policy-makers and among the latter. The results show the high effectiveness of fixed rules in the presence of supply-side shocks and the usefulness of cooperative discretionary measures against demand-side shocks. More generally, cooperation among fiscal policy-makers in the EMU is nearly always superior to non-cooperative equilibrium solutions, yielding a strong case for the coordination of fiscal policies.     

货币扩张、经济增长与资本市场制度创新

由于技术条件的限制 ,持续利用扩张性政策或透资性财政政策促进经济增长 ,最终将会把经济带入高通货膨胀和低经济增长的状态 ,即滞胀状态。这是被西方经济理论和经济实践所证实的结论。然而本文通过对中国经济的实证分析发现 ,在中国经济中消费物价指数和货币指数 (狭义货币指数和广义货币指数 )之间存在长期均衡的稳定关系 ,这说明从长时段的角度看 ,货币是消费物价变动的主要影响因素。从短期看 ,货币增长率对通货膨胀的影响主要有两个阶段 :第一阶段是新增基础货币对通货膨胀的影响 ,这一阶段为期一年 ,影响程度是基础货币增长率的 3 2 % ;第二阶段是由新增基础货币所导致的新增广义货币对通货膨胀的影响 ,这一阶段为期两年四个月 ,影响程度是新增广义货币增长率的 2 5 3 %。只要能够持续资本市场制度的创新 ,那么在中国经济中还存在利用持续的货币扩张政策或透资性财政政策促进经济增长的空间 ,原因是资本市场制度的创新会大大减少通货膨胀的压力。     

Strategic Interactions of Monetary Policymakers and Wage/Price Bargainers: A Review with Implications for the European Common-Currency Area

This paper reviews recent work on macroeconomic management with varying organization of wage/price bargaining and degrees of credible monetary conservatism. The emerging literature synthesizes and extends theory and empirics on central bank independence (CBI) and coordinated wage/price bargaining (CWB), arguing that the degrees of CBI and CWB interact with each other and with other political-economic conditions (sectoral composition, international exposure, etc.) to structure the incentives facing actors involved in monetary policy and wage/price bargaining. The core implication, theoretically surprising but empirically supported, is that even perfectly credible monetary conservatism has long-run, equilibrium, on-average real effects, even with fully rational expectations, and that these effects depend on the organization of wage/price bargaining. Conversely, wage/price-bargaining structure has real effects that depend on the degree of credible conservatism reflected in monetary-policy rules. Each also has interactive nominal effects though this is less surprising. Some disagreement remains over the precise nature of these interactive effects, but all emerging theory and evidence agree that a common, credibly conservative European monetary policy has nominal and real effects that depend on the Europe-wide institutional-structural organization of wage/price bargaining. Indeed, the one specific piece of theoretical and empirical agreement suggests that, for many member countries, the nominal gains from monetary-policy delegation to a credibly conservative European Central Bank will worsen these bargaining-policy interactions.     

Germany,the problem of leadership,and institution-building in EMU reform

ABSTRACT

This article examines the extent to which Germany has provided leadership in creating institutions to overcome the euro area crisis. Under which conditions does Germany act as a driver of institutional change, and what are the implications for the Economic and Monetary Union? Germany’s leadership record is mixed: while it took the lead in enhancing austerity, it refrained from fostering burden-sharing. As a result, EMU faces a persistent imbalance between enhanced institutions of supervision and insufficient institutions of financial assistance. Moreover, the article points out that current conditions for the emergence of German leadership in the euro area are unfavourable.     

Governance Reforms and Growth: Some Ideas from Economic Theory

Ideas from the theory of incentives and organization are deployed to examine how some aspects of economic governance—primarily protection of property rights, enforcement of contracts, and oversight regulation—can be improved for achieving better economic growth and development. Some suggestions for reform of governance institutions in developing countries are offered.     

An empirical analysis of remittance flows into West African Economic and Monetary Union: a panel time-series approach

The article empirically analyses the motivations and long-run economic outcomes of remittance inflows into the West African Economic and Monetary Union. Using Westerlund’s (2007) ECM for panel time series and data spanning 1975–2011, the results show that there is no evidence of a long-run impact of remittances on income per capita in the region. The inflows seem to be motivated by investment, but the money may be used to promote consumption instead. This phenomenon could be characterized by information asymmetry between migrants and the recipients.     

Real Convergence and European Integration: The Experience of the Less Developed EU Members

This study aims at providing an assessment about real convergence across countriesand regions in the EU, focusing more specifically on the four cohesion EU members.The results show that in the course of the last few years a process of convergence hastaken place between the per capita income levels of the EU regions and also, to a largerextent, of the Member States. Nevertheless, advances in real convergence are largelydetermined by the growth strategy implemented by the countries themselves. Lastly,our study suggests that the Community's regional policy has played a significant rolein favor of real convergence between the Member States of the EU. One importantlesson to be drawn is that the accession is likely to contribute significantly to improvingthe possibilities of the current Central and East European countries (CEECs) candidatesin aligning their per capita income levels with those of the EU members.     

家族治理的经济效率——与公司法人治理的比较

本文从“阶段治理”的视角,运用比较研究的方法探究家族治理的经济效率,分析了企业初创阶段家族治理的相对高效率和企业在遭遇治理瓶颈后效率损失的原因,并在此基础上运用两企业治理成本曲线比较图,探讨市场结构、产业特征和企业规模对家族治理效率的影响。     

Eurowinners and Eurolosers: The distribution of seigniorage wealth in EMU

The European Monetary Union (EMU) will involve socialization of the existing seigniorage wealth of the national central banks. This socialization will create windfall gains for countries with relatively low monetary bases such as France and the UK and it will be disadvantageous for countries like Germany, Austria, Spain or the Netherlands which will suffer per capita wealth losses of between 406 and 182 ecus. The paper quantifies the gains and losses in seigniorage wealth under alternative membership and bank regulation scenarios.     

Capitalist Convergence? European (dis?)Integration and the Post-crash Restructuring of French and European Capitalisms

ABSTRACT

This article critiques and builds upon first-wave (Höpner and Schäfer 2010. A new phase of European integration: organised capitalisms in post-Ricardian Europe. West European Politics, 33 (2), 344–368) and second-wave (Johnston and Regan 2018. Introduction: is the European Union capable of integrating diverse models of capitalism? New Political Economy, 23 (2), 145–159) European Integration and comparative capitalisms literatures which posit convergence towards a single model of capitalism or growth. It utilises the case study of France to explore the impact of European integration and disintegration on national models of capitalism in the post-crisis era. The article focuses on the impact of integrative and disintegrative dynamics on France’s ‘state-industry-finance nexus’, putting forward three core claims. First, French capitalism is not accurately captured by the above frameworks and remains better characterised by the concept of post-dirigisme. Indeed, comparative capitalisms debates must move beyond a simple bifurcation of capitalist types. Second, European integrative pressures must be viewed as fragmented, differentiating, mediated by domestic state actors and producing capitalist variegation and hybridisation. Countering functionalist tendencies within this literature, it shows how different conceptions of state-market relations crucially mediate the relationship between national capitalisms and European integration. Finally, in the context of Brexit, the dynamics of European disintegration – an issue not discussed so far in these debates – is contributing to a variegated and multi-directional process of capitalist restructuring in post-crisis France.     

Monetary and fiscal policy interactions in the EMU when cyclical conditions are uncertain

This paper examines economic policy interactions in the Economic and Monetary Union when the assessment of cyclical conditions in real time is surrounded by uncertainty. On the basis of a simple stylised model it shows that with a Nash-type of interaction different views about the output gap on the side of the policy players—the Council of the European Union, the European Commission and the European Central Bank—can give rise to excessive activism with policy players pushing economic variables into opposite directions. It argues that the costs of such policy conflicts can be reduced by agreeing on a common assessment of the cycle, by constraining policy variables, and/or by increasing the weight of fiscally conservative institutions. An alternative option to sidestep policy conflicts ensuing from diverging views of the cycle is to take policy decisions sequentially, as is the case in a Stackelberg-type of interaction. The paper shows that for a given misperception of the cycle, the impact on the policy instruments and on output and inflation are generally smaller in the Stackelberg equilibrium as compared to a Nash outcome. Alternative allocations of roles—that is leader versus follower—are discussed and assessed.

面对中国市场经济地位问题：美国和欧盟的政策比较及启示

在今年若干国家正式承认了中国的市场经济地位的国际背景下,美国和欧盟却宣称暂时不给予中国市场经济地位。美国和欧盟作为中国的两大贸易伙伴,这样的外交辞令无疑会对其他与中国有贸易往来的国家产生导向作用,而这与中国目前积极争取获得市场经济地位的近期目标是相左的。针对美国和欧盟对中国市场经济地位的政策比较,进而分析两者的异同,谋求各个击破的方法并提出相应的政策建议,最终为中国争取全面获得市场经济地位做出努力。     

“欧洲学期”:欧盟改善经济治理的重要一步

主权债务危机充分暴露出欧盟内部经济治理方面的体制性缺陷,也让成员国看到深化欧盟内部融合、增进财政预算和宏观经济政策协调的必要性。"欧洲学期"就是欧盟在债务危机恶化之际推出的一项重大改革举措,是完善欧盟经济治理的重要内容。因此,对这一机制的研究显得尤为必要。本文从"欧洲学期"机制的框架内容、创新之处、存在的问题、实施现状和预期政策效应等方面着手,试图对其做出较为客观全面的剖析,并给出初步的评价。     

Can the Stability and Growth Pact in EMU Cause Budget Deficit Cycles?

We study whether the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) in EuropeanMonetary Union (EMU) can induce budget deficit cycles. The SGP provides a framework forsanctioning EMU-memberswith excessive deficits. If a government's optimal deficitpolicy is above the deficit threshold which triggers penalties then the deficit will be higherwith the SGP in force than without. The SGP may even induce deficit cycles in the sense thata government switches its optimal deficit between the threshold provided by the SGP and aneven larger deficit.     

欧洲研究和技术组织发展方兴未艾

欧盟及其成员国掌握大量的科学研究资金、机构和知识储备。为有效统筹科研创新资源和能力,优化研究政策战略和重点领域,促进欧洲研究机构体系的健康发展,欧盟提出了建立欧洲研究区(ERA)的战略设想。20世纪第二次工业革命出现的欧洲研究和技术组织(RTO)是欧洲研究区建设的有力支撑。经过80多年的发展,欧洲的RTO逐步凭借目标公益性、功能独特性、管理独立性和中立性等特点,发展壮大,成为欧洲科研创新体系中的重要组成部分,向政府、企业和其他组织提供了广泛的研究开发和技术创新服务。欧洲研究区在全面统筹优先领域、建设和共享高端研究基础设施以及向全球开放等战略性设想,通过RTO体系得以全面阐释和实施,对我国未来科研体制改革和发展有积极的借鉴作用。     

经济全球化条件下市场特征和国际营销渠道趋势的分析

本文分析了在经济全球化进程逐渐加快，日益成为世界经济发展主流的条件下，市场环境和市场行为的特征以及国际营销渠道的新趋向，提出了我国企业跨国经营的渠道策略。     

What's Left for ‘Social Europe’? Brexit and Transnational Labour Market Regulation in the UK-1 and the EU-27

The paper examines UK government positions on the regulation of transnational labour in the context of Brexit. Through an analysis of EU regulations on posted workers – the practice whereby a company based in one EU member state sends workers to carry out a service in another EU member state – the paper argues that the UK has consistently advocated further liberalisation of transnational labour markets in EU level decision-making, a position consistent with promoting increasingly ‘flexible’ labour markets at home. Brexit marks a turning point. Demands from British workers for stronger protection against liberalising pressure help explain the UK's recent shift towards relaxing its opposition to ‘market-correcting’ EU initiatives like the revised posted worker directive. Brexit provides a window of opportunity for the revitalisation of ‘Social Europe’ in the EU-27, without a longstanding veto player at the bargaining table, but one more likely focused more on upholding national labour protections than initiating new supranational policies.     

The deregulation of international trucking in the European Union: form and effect

We describe the regulatory regime under which international trucking operated in Western Europe until the mid-1980s, the deregulatory process that followed, and the effect of this deregulation. We find that deregulation had a large positive effect on the growth of international trucking. We also find that shippers shifted toward more outsourcing of their trucking needs, but this occurred to an even greater extent in local and national road transport. We conclude that other factors beside the deregulation of international trucking affected the organization of the industry at the time. Finally, despite concerns voiced by member countries, we find no evidence that deregulation disproportionately favored carriers of countries that were initially more (or less) involved in international trucking, nor that it has favored low-wage countries.