Transportation and The International Trade of Eastern and Southern Africa

We use new data on transportation to determine its effect on the international trade of eastern and southern Africa (ESA). The effects were estimated with gravity models using alternative techniques to check for robustness. Freight forwarders provided information on freight charges (price), average duration of shipment (time) and variability in time. The new transportation variables and the more commonly used distance variable appear to have smaller effects overall than some previous research indicated, although our distance coefficient is identical to that of Coulibaly and Fotagné for West Africa. In contrast to other research critical of distance as a proxy for transport impediments, we find similar effects from distance and our measure of transport time, but both of these variables have significantly larger coefficients than price and variability. Landlocked ESA countries are twice as dependent on trade as the whole region after accounting for control variables, but they are not significantly more affected by changes in price and time, and they are less affected by distance and variability. The relative size of the time coefficients suggests that measures to lessen delays in shipping, for instance, faster border clearance, might encourage more trade than cost cutting measures that lowered price proportionately.     

基于百度指数的公路运价指数RO-ELM预测

公路运价指数是公路运输市场波动的衡量指标,对中国的公路运输业有重要的预示功能.利用极限学习机(ELM)的神经网络模型快速、低成本预测公路运价指数.以各百度指数与公路运价指数的相关性确定各分量对公路运价指数的影响,进而利用ADF平稳性检验与Johansen协整检验构建输入序列,最后运用时域优化思想优化输入变量,在ELM神经网络模型内输出预测值.结果表明:基于滚动窗口的ELM模型的MAPE与RMSE分别为1.85％ 与25.17,比单一ELM模型在平均绝对百分比误差和均方根误差上都有提升,预测结果与指数波动相符,可以为公路运价指数的走向提供决策参考.     

The effect of gasoline prices on suburban housing values in China

By raising road transportation costs, an increase in gasoline prices should be expected to reduce housing demand in locations further from the central business district (CBD) relative to inner-city locations. This study uses a monthly real estate area dataset for 19 large cities in China over 2010–2018 to investigate the impact of gasoline prices on intra-city spatial differentials in housing prices. The findings suggest that higher gasoline prices on average lead to a relative decline in housing prices in outer suburbs, with a 1% increase in gasoline prices on average leading to a 0.004% relative reduction in home values for every additional kilometer from the CBD. The effect is larger in cities that have higher automobile ownership rates and that are less densely populated. The results are consistent with a conclusion that the rise of electric vehicles, autonomous vehicles, and working from home is likely to contribute to a lowering of geographical price differentials within Chinese cities over time.     

浅谈公路高速客运发展

近年来,随着我国高速公路陆续建成通车,高速公路客运应运而生,它以其快速、安全、经济、舒适的优势在综合运输体系中的地位日趋重要。本文在分析高速公路客运的特点、发展面临的机遇的基础上,分析了如何运作公路高速客运。     

Price variability and price convergence: Evidence from Indonesia

This paper evaluates price variability and price convergence in Indonesia. Using price indices of 35 products in 45 cities from January 2002 to April 2008, this study shows that, during the observed period, prices in Indonesia converged to the ‘relative’ law of one price. The price variability of one product across cities is found to be smaller than the price variability of all products within a city. Transportation costs and the level of development matter to price variability. This study also reveals that the average speed of convergence, which is measured by the half-life, for perishable goods is about 9 months, non-perishable goods 32–36 months, and services 18–19 months, while the median of the half-life of all products is about 16–17 months. The speed of convergence depends on the initial price difference, but not the distance between cities.     

城市公路客运枢纽布局优化与发展趋势探讨

随着城市化进程的加快和城市空间的不断拓展，城市公路客运枢纽面临着提高城市交通运输效率和交通服务水平、改善城市交通环境与交通拥堵等难题。通过总结当前广州市公路客运枢纽在布局及运营方面存在的问题，借鉴国内外先进经验，提出城市公路客运枢纽的布局与发展应符合一体化、信息化、低碳化要求，并阐述了广州市公路客运枢纽布局优化与发展措施，可为国内城市公路客运枢纽的布局优化与发展决策提供参考。     

Mechanical Refrigeration and the Integration of Perishable Commodity Markets

In this paper, we provide a history of the economic impact of mechanical refrigeration in the United States. We also examine spatial and temporal aspects of market integration. Specifically, we examine seasonal fluctuations in prices and analyze regional integration of markets for butter. We test the null hypothesis of no integration before and after the advent and adoption of refrigerated shipping and warehousing using 31 years of monthly data. We find strong evidence of spatially integrated markets after adoption. Our results indicate that the adoption of mechanical refrigeration brought about a significant dampening of seasonal fluctuations of butter prices and a tightening of spatial price linkages. We conclude that the adoption of mechanical refrigeration had a significant impact on both temporal and spatial butter price relationships.     

Greasing the wheels of rural transformation? Margarine and the competition for the British butter market

This article considers an example of the impact of a new good on producers of close substitutes: the invention of margarine and its rapid introduction into the British market from the mid‐1870s. This presented a challenge to the traditional suppliers of that market, butter producers from different European countries. We argue that the capacity to react quickly to the appearance of this cheap substitute by improving quality and establishing product differentiation was critical for the fortunes of butter producers. This is illustrated by a discussion of the different reactions to margarine and quality upgrading in Ireland, Denmark, and the Netherlands. A statistical analysis using monthly data for Britain from 1881–7 confirms that margarine had a greater impact on the price of poor quality butter than that of high quality butter, presumably because it was a stronger substitute.     

高速铁路建设背景下城市交通资源利用研究

以大连市高速铁路建设为背景,分析了高速铁路建设对城市布局尤其是城市交通带来的影响,从轨道交通、公路、城市道路和交通枢纽等方面提出了规划对策。     

Competition and collusion in a government procurement auction market

This paper tests the structure performance hypothesis by examining a highway construction industry in Florida. In the first-price sealed bid auction literature, there is little evidence on how many bidders are required for these markets to be competitive. Two different indicators are used to capture the transition from collusion to competition—a discontinuous effect of the number of bidders on winning bid price, and an associative effect of repeat bidding of a contractor with the same set of firms. The results suggest that winning bids decrease as the number of bidders rises until there are about six to eight firms. Since subsequent entry has no effect on the winning bid price, it is concluded that the highway construction market becomes competitive with about eight bidders.     

The nature of substitution between transport modes

Conclusions In this paper, we have derived a non-linear demand function for gasoline by means of a two-stage optimization of the S-2 branch utility function. The demand function was simplified by employment of the Kuhn-Tucker optimization conditions and the Shephard-Samuelson theorem. Two principal conclusions emerge from the empirical work presented in the preceding pages. First, the magnitude of the inter-class elasticity of substitution shows that consumers do not easily substitute among separate branches of the utility function. Second, the value for the intra-class elasticity of substitution suggests that consumers have little inclination to substitute between different modes of transportation. The U.S. household does not readily switch from private to public transportation when the price of gasoline and transportation costs as a whole increase. At the present time when there is little chance for substantial reduction in the price of gasoline, efforts to moderate the demand for gasoline by shifting household transportation from private to public modes will not be fruitful unless gasoline pricing policy is quite drastic or else supplemented by other policy measures.     

交通基础设施结构对城乡收入差距的空间溢出效应研究

为探究交通基础设施作为一项公共品对缩小城乡收入差距的贡献程度,以二元经济发展理论,新古典经济学理论为基础,运用空间自相关,空间误差模型,在我国2005—2017年30个省级行政区（除西藏）的面板数据基础上,引入交通基础设施密度作为核心解释变量,从空间的视角探讨,交通基础设施对于改善城乡收入差距的贡献程度。实证结果显示：公路交通基础设施的建设有助于缩小城乡收入差距,其中,一级公路,三级公路对于收入差距存在正向溢出,二级公路存在负向溢出,高速公路影响并不明显;铁路基础设施则与之相反。结果表明：优化交通基础设施的投建结构对于缩小城乡收入差距存在重要的现实意义,随着资本边际收益不断递减以及人口红利优势的逐渐消失,合理分配交通基础设施投资支出对于推动经济增长向效率方向转型变得日益迫切。     

轨道交通对沿线房地产价格影响的研究

轨道交通建设对沿线房地产价格产生的影响越发明显,本文分析了轨道交通对房地产价格的影响因素。结果表明,轨道交通站点对房价的影响在2.5公里的合理步行范围内;对城市中心区的房价的影响较小,越远离城区对房价的影响程度越大;随着轨道交通建设的时间影响越小;对于商业用房地产的影响较大,而对于工业用房地产的影响较小。     

International price discrimination: The pharmaceutical industry

It is generally asserted that price discrimination is a common feature of the international pharmaceutical market, resulting in unnecessarily high medical costs to developing countries, since it is pharmaceuticals that are the largest component of their health care expenditures. However, little comprehensive empirical research has been carried out to test this hypothesis. This article compares the prices of identical packages of pharmaceutical products for 32 countries for the year 1975 and examines which factors contribute to thehuge price differences. A strong positive relationship between price level and per capita GDP is found, a 10% increase in per capita income being associated with on average 8% higher drug prices. The implementation of direct price control measures by the government results on average in a 20% price reduction, while government policies such as bulk purchasing through a centralized government agency, promotion of the use of generics and, to a lesser, extent excluding patent protection seem to be sucessful in lowering the general price level of pharmaceuticals. These results suggest that the pharmaceutical industry charges what the market “will bear”.     

企业异质性、地理距离与中国出口产品价格的空间分布

新一新贸易理论对企业异质性内涵有两类阐述,一类是企业生产效率（efficiency）的差异性,一类是企业产品品质（quality）的差异性;这意味着不同的出口产品价格（fob价格）空间分布特点,前者认为出口产品价格随着地理距离增加而减少,后者相反。本文利用中国对各国HS92版本六分位出口数据进行了经验分析,发现中国出口产品价格随着地理距离增加而减少;这说明中国出口企业实行低价竞销策略;改变中国企业的竞争策略成为中国出口贸易可持续发展的微观基础。     

Evaluating the risk of Chinese housing markets: What we know and what we need to know

Real estate is an important driver of the Chinese economy, which itself is vital for global growth. However, data limitations make it challenging to evaluate competing claims about the state of Chinese housing markets. This paper brings new data and analysis to the study of supply and demand conditions in nearly three dozen major cities. We first document the most accurate measures of land values, construction costs, and overall house prices. We then create and investigate a number of supply and demand metrics to see if price growth reasonably can be interpreted as reflecting local market fundamentals. Key results include the following:

• (1)Real house price growth has been high, averaging 10% per annum since 2006. However, there is substantial heterogeneity across markets, ranging from 2.8% (Jinan) to 19.8% (Beijing). House price growth is driven by rising land values, not by construction costs. Real land values have risen by 14.4% per annum on average. In Beijing, the increase has been by a remarkable 27.5% per year (or by 1036%) since 2004.
• (2)There is variation about the strong positive trend in house price and land value growth. Land values fell by nearly one-third at the beginning of the global financial crisis, but more than fully recovered amidst the 2009–2010 Chinese stimulus. More recent growth has been much more modest, with some markets beginning to decline. Quantities of land sales by local governments to private residential developers have dropped sharply since 2013. The most recent data show transactions volumes down by half or more. This should lead to a reduced supply of new housing units in coming years.
• (3)Market-level analysis of short- and longer-run changes in supply–demand balances finds important variation across markets. In the major East region markets of Beijing, Hangzhou, Shanghai and Shenzhen which have experienced very high rates of real price growth, we estimate that the growth in households demanding housing units has outpaced new construction since the turn of the century. However, there are thirteen large markets, primarily in the interior of the country, in which new housing production has outpaced household growth by at least 30% and another eleven in which it did so by at least 10%. Regression results show that a one standard deviation increase in local market housing inventory is associated with a 0.45 standard deviation lower rate of real house price growth the following year.
• (4)There are no official data on residential vacancy rates in China, but some researchers have reported very high figures (17%+). We develop a new series at the provincial level which yields a much lower vacancy rate on average, but it has been rising—from 5.2% in 2009 to 7.8% in 2014.
• (5)The risk of housing even in markets such as Beijing which show no evidence of oversupply, is best evidenced by price-to-rent ratios. They are well above 50 in the capital city. Poterba's (1984) user cost model suggests these levels can be justified only if owners have sufficiently high expectations of future capital gains. Even a modest one percentage point drop in expected appreciation (or increase in interest rates) would result in a drop in prices of about one-third, absent an offsetting increase in rents.

     

Examining the impact of high-speed railways on land value and government revenue: Evidence from China

The Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway operates at 300 km per hour to connect two of the most important Chinese cities within a travel time of 5 h. By exploiting a unique government land sale dataset, this paper investigates the impact of this high-speed railway on land price and then on the local government revenue. We show that the BSH generally increases the land price by about 87%, which amounts to about RMB 99 billion (around USD 14 billion) more in government land sale revenue or helps to cover about 45% of its construction cost. Furthermore, we show the heterogeneity of the impacts of the BSH on the prices of different types of land. Specifically, we find that residential land located within 3 km from a BSH station experiences a price increase of 278%. This effect is weaker for mixed-use land. Our finding shows that high-speed railway itself could serve as a key channel of infrastructure financing and government revenue sources.     

新时期基层公路管理部门财务管理之我见

"十一五"以来,全国公路建设发展迅猛,有力地促进了中国经济社会的快速发展。随着公路事业的不断发展,财务管理工作越来越得到广泛重视。在国家扩大内需加大交通投入,公路系统面临新的发展机遇的同时,要不断提升科学理财能力和创新能力,探索出适合自身发展的新思路。     

我国高速铁路和航空客运竞争优势分析

高速铁路与民航在客运市场上的竞争越来越激烈。两者的竞争各有优势,目前看民航的优势主要有便捷、服务质量和舒适度高、销售网络成熟,长远看其难以被替代的优势主要在于建设投资占地少、航线灵活;高速铁路的价格上暂有优势,而核心优势在于节能、运量大和稳定性强。文章认为,高速铁路更适合在中短途市场上发挥作用,航空的长处在于长途运输,通过空铁联运可以更好地将二者的优势结合。     

The Rise of the Sunbelt

In the last 50 years, population and incomes have increased steadily throughout much of the Sunbelt. This paper assesses the relative contributions of rising productivity, rising demand for Southern amenities, and increases in housing supply to the growth of warm areas, using data on income, housing price, and population growth. Before 1980, economic productivity increased significantly in warmer areas and drove the population growth in those places. Since 1980, productivity growth has been more modest, but housing supply growth has been enormous. We infer that new construction in warm regions represents a growth in supply, rather than demand, from the fact that prices are generally falling relative to the rest of the country. The relatively slow pace of housing price growth in the Sunbelt, relative to the rest of the country and relative to income growth, also implies that there has been no increase in the willingness to pay for sun-related amenities. As such, it seems that the growth of the Sunbelt has little to do with the sun.