A multivariate model of strategic asset allocation

We develop an approximate solution method for the optimal consumption and portfolio choice problem of an infinitely long-lived investor with Epstein–Zin utility who faces a set of asset returns described by a vector autoregression in returns and state variables. Empirical estimates in long-run annual and post-war quarterly U.S. data suggest that the predictability of stock returns greatly increases the optimal demand for stocks. The role of nominal bonds in long-term portfolios depends on the importance of real interest rate risk relative to other sources of risk. Long-term inflation-indexed bonds greatly increase the utility of conservative investors.     

The role of state and foreign owners in corporate risk-taking: Evidence from privatization

Using a unique database of 381 newly privatized firms from 57 countries, we investigate the impact of shareholders' identity on corporate risk-taking behavior. We find strong and robust evidence that state (foreign) ownership is negatively (positively) related to corporate risk-taking. Moreover, we find that high risk-taking by foreign owners depends on the strength of country-level governance institutions. Our results suggest that relinquishment of government control, openness to foreign investment, and improvement of country-level governance institutions are key determining factors of corporate risk-taking in newly privatized firms.     

The asset growth effect: Insights from international equity markets

Firms with higher asset growth rates subsequently experience lower stock returns in international equity markets, consistent with the U.S. evidence. This negative effect of asset growth on returns is stronger in more developed capital markets and markets where stocks are more efficiently priced, but is unrelated to country characteristics representing limits to arbitrage, investor protection, and accounting quality. The evidence suggests that the cross-sectional relation between asset growth and stock return is more likely due to an optimal investment effect than due to overinvestment, market timing, or other forms of mispricing.     

The relationships between CEO characteristics and strategic risk-taking in family firms

Abstract

We examine the influences of chief executive officer (CEO) personal characteristics on family firms’ strategic risk-taking. Building on upper echelons theory, we investigate the influences of CEO family relationships, the CEO professional education, other career experiences, tenure, and career horizon have on the risk level a company takes. By analyzing a sample of 107 Italian family firms listed on the Milan Stock Exchange, we find that company’s risk-taking significantly and negatively relates to CEO family relationship and professional education, but positively to CEO career horizon. This provides support to the argument that such CEO personal characteristics are key factors in explaining differences in risk-taking among family firms. Further, our analysis of control variables shows that family firms’ risk-taking relates positively to board size and negatively to company size. These results suggest that company and board characteristics also significantly influence the risk levels taken by a company.     

The role of budgets in organizations facing strategic change: an exploratory study

Recent attention in the general management literature has focused on mechanisms and processes used by organizations to respond and adapt to changes in their operating environment. There is, however, very little broad-based empirical research examining the role that management accounting control systems can play in shaping organizational change. Much of the empirical research to date has focused on the role of accounting as a diagnostic tool for assessing and rewarding managerial performance despite the recognition that accounting can serve as a dialogue, learning and idea creation machine (Burchell et al., 1980. Accounting Organisations and Society 5,5–27). The purpose of this study is to explore how accounting can serve this alternative role. We use (Simons, R. 1990.) Accounting Organisations and Society 15, 127–143). interactive/diagnostic classification of management control systems to capture how accounting can be used as a learning machine in the formulation and implementation of strategic change. A theoretical model is developed to examine the relationship between strategic change, style of budget use and performance. It is argued that an interactive style of budget use can mitigate the disruptive performance effects of the strategic change process. The data, collected from Chief Executive Officers in 63 public hospitals, provide results that are consistent with our expectations.     

Effects of business diversification on asset risk-taking: Evidence from the U.S. property-liability insurance industry

We investigate the effect of line-of-business diversification on asset risk-taking in the U.S. property-liability industry. The coordinated risk management hypothesis (Schrand and Unal, 1998) implies a negative relation between underwriting risk and investment risk. Consistent with this hypothesis we find that diversified insurers take more asset risk than non-diversified insurers, and that the degree of asset risk-taking is positively related to diversification extent. Our results are robust to corrections for potential endogeneity bias, selectivity bias, and alternative diversification and asset risk measures. We also provide event study evidence that further supports the coordinated risk management hypothesis. Specifically, we find that when a focused firm diversifies, it increases its asset risk relative to firms that remain focused, and when a diversified firm refocuses, it reduces its asset risk relative to firms that remain diversified.     

The relation between equity incentives and misreporting: The role of risk-taking incentives

Prior research argues that a manager whose wealth is more sensitive to changes in the firm?s stock price has a greater incentive to misreport. However, if the manager is risk-averse and misreporting increases both equity values and equity risk, the sensitivity of the manager?s wealth to changes in stock price (portfolio delta) will have two countervailing incentive effects: a positive “reward effect” and a negative “risk effect.” In contrast, the sensitivity of the manager?s wealth to changes in risk (portfolio vega) will have an unambiguously positive incentive effect. We show that jointly considering the incentive effects of both portfolio delta and portfolio vega substantially alters inferences reported in prior literature. Using both regression and matching designs, and measuring misreporting using discretionary accruals, restatements, and enforcement actions, we find strong evidence of a positive relation between vega and misreporting and that the incentives provided by vega subsume those of delta. Collectively, our results suggest that equity portfolios provide managers with incentives to misreport when they make managers less averse to equity risk.     

On the nurturing of strategic foresight: The Ubuntu perspective

We draw on ideas from the African humanistic philosophy of Ubuntu with existing approaches to propose alternative ways of nurturing strategic foresight in practice. Delineating Ubuntu as a transient organizing philosophy, we show how the integration of Ubuntu in everyday organizing could enhance relational pluralism, and in-turn strategic foresight. Embarking on some mild speculative expedition based on ideas from Ubuntu, we also outline some activities and organizing routines of team leaders that may contribute to encouraging employees to enact ‘foresightful’ actions in their situated practice. We conclude with implications of our study for organizing and some directions for futureresearch.     

The role of hindsight in foresight: refining strategic reasoning

The purpose of this paper is to deepen understanding of the role that hindsight plays in foresight. The authors argue that the past is not an isolated static state, but one that is intimately connected with the future. However, there are several biases that influence our perceptions and conceptions of the past. These biases act as constraints on our ability to understand the driving forces that emerge from the past, play out through the present and become the critical uncertainties in the future. They could result in misperceptions about events or processes and so may impair foresight methodologies, such as scenario thinking. Such a foresight bias is characterized by a combination of hindsight biases, creeping determinism and searching for information that corresponds to people’s views about both the past and the future.The cognitive linkages between past, present and future are discussed and the role of counter-to-factual analysis is emphasized as an antidote to the foresight bias. Counter-to-factual analysis is both a cognitive process and an analytical reasoning tool applied to the analysis of historical data. Using insights generated from the explorations of counter-to-factual reasoning, the authors present a hindsight-foresight paragon that fortifies current foresight enhancing techniques with counter-to-factual analysis.

Two Roads diverged in a yellow wood,

And sorry I could not travel both

And be one traveler, long I stood

To where it bent in the undergrowth…

Two roads diverged in a wood, and I-

I took the one less traveled by,

And that has made all the difference.

The Road Not Taken, Robert Frost

Men’s curiosity searches past and future

And clings to that dimension. But to apprehend

The point of intersection of the timeless

With time, is an occupation for the saint—

T. S. Eliot, from The Dry Salvages     

Medicaid and long‐term care: The effects of penalizing strategic asset transfers

Medicaid provides a critical source of insurance for long‐term care, and individuals may strategically offload assets (typically to children) to meet the means‐tested eligibility requirement. In this article, we quantify the extent of such behavior using variation in the penalty for improper parent‐to‐child transfers induced by the Deficit Reduction Act of 2005. We estimate difference‐in‐differences models based on the hypothesis that only individuals with high levels of nursing home risk (high risk) will alter transfers because of the Act. We find that over a 2‐year horizon, high‐risk individuals reduced transfers to children on the extensive margin by 11 percent and that the average total amount of transfers decreased by $4,860. The results hold only for coupled respondents. We also conduct a triple‐differences analysis to examine heterogeneity with financial literacy and find that even those with a low level of financial literacy responded to the penalty.     

Non-compliance notifications and taxpayer strategic behavior: evidence from Ecuador

International Tax and Public Finance - This paper examines the effect of enforcement on taxpayer behavior using administrative data from Ecuador. To overcome confounding factors, a regression...     

The asymmetric behavior and procyclical impact of asset correlations

This paper examines the behavior of asset correlations with the market returns in the asymptotic single risk factor (ASRF) approach of the Basel II accord on regulatory capital requirement. Over a sample period from 1988 to 2007, we find that asset correlations are positively related to firm size, but negatively related to firm default probability. Asset correlations are also industry specific, as firms in media, transportation, pharmaceutical, and semiconductor industries exhibit higher asset correlations than those in retail and consumer staples. Most importantly, asset correlations are asymmetric and have a procyclical impact on the real economy after controlling for these effects. They tend to rise during economic downturns, but decline during economic upturns. The average magnitude of the rise is larger than that of the decline. These findings suggest that asset correlations may be underestimated during economic downturns, and may provide policy implications for the capital requirement framework.     

The integration substitute: the role of controls in managing human asset specificity

As the integration solution to the problem of specific assets cannot be replicated on human asset specificity because slavery is illegal, economic theory states that control systems substitute for integration through a balanced structure to help align diverse interests. To understand the intricate design features of the balance, we examine a case‐study firm. For low human asset specificity, the restriction and segregation of usable decision rights link with standards. However, incentives are traced to individuals only to the extent task deviations do not create relevant future costs that are difficult to be self‐corrected. For high specificity, incentives are related to outputs rather than outcomes, because outcome variations reduce the attractiveness of maintaining the balance. Subjective assessment is used as an efficient alternate ‘balancing’ solution and decision control is shared when available subjective data are inadequate.     

The conditioning role of performance on the bank risk-taking channel of monetary policy: Evidence from a multiple-tool regime

The study investigates how monetary policy affects bank risk-taking under a multiple-tool regime of Vietnam during 2007–2018. Particularly, we also consider the conditioning role of bank performance, broken down by bank profitability and cost efficiency, in this nexus. Using both dynamic and static panel models, we show that the liquidity injection initiated by the central bank’s asset purchases induces banks to take more risks, captured by the traditional Z-score and two alternative measures of credit risk. However, monetary policy easing through decreased interest rates is beneficial to the credit portfolio and financial stability of banks, which therefore challenges the functioning of the bank risk-taking channel. This startling result is robust across three different interest rate measures, including lending rates, refinance rates and rediscount rates. Further analysis reveals that our observed effects are alleviated for banks with higher performance — i.e., more profitable and efficient banks. This in-depth finding offers more insights into the “search for yield” incentive, based on the theory of information asymmetry and the two competing hypotheses of “bad management” and “cost skimping”.     

Thinking of peace when rich: The effect of industry growth on corporate risk-taking

We investigate the unique role and mechanisms of industry growth in firms’ risk-taking policies. We find that industry growth is negatively associated with corporate risk-taking, consistent with the prospect theory that a high-growth industry gives firms a superior external environment, which may cause them to refrain from corporate risk-taking as in the saying “thinking of peace when rich.” This correlation is stronger for product market leaders, industries encouraged by industry policies and industries that receive more government support. Firms reduce risk-taking through various corporate policies, including long-term, high-value investments, operational efficiency and cash holdings in response to high industry growth. Overall, our results are consistent with industry growth negatively affecting corporate risk-taking.     

Linear predictability vs. bull and bear market models in strategic asset allocation decisions: evidence from UK data

Most papers in the portfolio choice literature have examined linear predictability frameworks based on the idea that simple but flexible Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models can be expanded to produce portfolio allocations that hedge against the bull and bear dynamics typical of financial markets through careful selection of predictor variables that capture business cycles and market sentiment. Yet, a distinct literature exists that shows that non-linear econometric frameworks, such as Markov switching, are also natural tools to compute optimal portfolios arising from the existence of good and bad market states. This paper examines whether and how simple VARs can produce portfolio rules similar to those obtained under a simple Markov switching, by studying the effects of expanding both the order of the VAR and the number/selection of predictor variables included. In a typical stock-bond strategic asset allocation problem for UK data, we compute the out-of-sample certainty equivalent returns for a wide range of VARs and compare these measures of performance with those of non-linear models. We conclude that most VARs cannot produce portfolio rules, hedging demands or (net of transaction costs) out-of-sample performances that approximate those obtained from simple non-linear frameworks.     

The role of asset payouts in the estimation of default barriers

In the barrier option model of corporate security valuation, the firm’s creditors impose a default-triggering barrier on the firm value to protect their claim. Two disputed issues in the literature are whether the implied default barrier is positive, and whether it is above or below the book value of the firm’s liabilities. We extend the model of Brockman and Turtle (2003) by embedding asset payouts in the valuation of shareholders’ equity. Using a sample of US stocks from the NYSE, AMEX, and NASDAQ exchanges, our paper exploits market and firm information to compute the implied default barrier for thirty 2-digit SIC groups, including industrials and banks. Our results show that the implied default barrier is lower than it is in the received literature, and it can be less than total liabilities, even zero for some firms. The implied physical default probabilities are significantly lower in the presence of payouts, providing a closer fit to the historical corporate default rates, particularly for issuers of speculative-grade bonds.     

The role of audit evidence in a strategic audit

This study examines how audit risk (the probability of false acceptance) and its components change when the auditor obtains audit evidence in an acceptance sampling model. Inherent risk and audit risk increase with audit evidence if the auditee has a sufficiently strong incentive for committing fraud. Detection risk always increases when audit evidence is introduced. If the auditor has a sufficiently strong incentive for avoiding false rejection, audit risk also increases with audit evidence. The analysis indicates that requiring auditors to obtain information is not effective in preventing material misstatements in at least some instances.     

Determinants and outcomes of IT governance in manufacturing SMEs: A strategic IT management perspective

The need to strategically manage IT resources such that they enhance the business value of firms makes IT governance (ITG), in conjunction with IT alignment, an ongoing issue for IS researchers and practitioners. In addressing this issue, the present study aims to validate a research model that relates, within a strategic IT management framework, the firm's ITG and IT alignment capabilities to its IT performance. To do so, a survey of 223 manufacturing SMEs (small and medium-sized enterprises) was realized. Results confirm the hypothesized relationships between the firm's environmental uncertainty, strategic IT orientation, ITG and IT alignment capabilities. They constitute a solid validation of the impact of the strategic management of IT resources and governance of IT on IT performance in the specific context of manufacturing SMEs.     

The imperatives for organizational governance in a large charity: a strategic choice perspective

This paper explains the factors that shaped governance practices in a large charity. The author uses strategic choice theory in an analysis of case study data to bring into calculation the internal and external factors that impacted the roles of board members and executives. The paper finds overall support for a powersharing model and contributes to our understanding of governance in nonprofit organizations.