宏观经济信息与金融市场关联性——来自混频动态条件相关系数模型的证据

宏观经济信息是金融市场之间相互传递的重要信息内容,有效利用宏观经济信息是否有助于更好地理解金融市场关联性？为此,本文运用混频动态条件相关系数(DCC-MIDAS)模型分析了我国四个重要金融市场之间的动态相关性如何受到纳入的宏观经济信息的影响。结果发现:(1)工业增加值和货币供应量M2负向影响金融市场关联性,经济政策不确定性和通货膨胀水平反之。前三者是影响金融市场关联性较为重要的因素,而通货膨胀的重要性相对较低;(2)宏观经济信息作为市场关联性的长期成分相较基于市场信息的模型可以获得至少1.45%的效率提升。(3)工业增加值和通货膨胀对金融市场关联性的影响较为稳健,货币供应量M2和经济政策不确定性的影响表现出周期性特征。经济上行阶段工业增加值、货币政策信息带来的效率提升更为明显,经济下行阶段政策不确定性相对重要。本文研究结论对于加强金融监管协调和防范金融市场风险共振具有参考价值和指导意义。     

Do green bonds and economic policy uncertainty matter for carbon price? New insights from a TVP-VAR framework

Green bond shocks and economic policy uncertainty are essential factors affecting macroeconomic development and green finance. In this paper, the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) framework is used to analyze the monthly data of China from April 2014 to March 2022 and to investigate the dynamic impact of green bond shock and economic policy uncertainty on carbon prices. The results show that economic policy uncertainty and the impact of the green bond have significant time-varying and short-term effects on carbon price. In the short term, economic policy uncertainty has a significant positive impact on carbon price most of the time, while green bond has a significant negative impact on carbon price most of the time. Meanwhile, economic policy uncertainty and the impact of green bond on carbon price in Hubei and Guangdong are heterogeneous. In addition, we also use Bayesian VAR (BVAR) model to test the robustness of the results. Based on the research results, some policy suggestions are put forward, including improving the stability of economic policies, implementing green bond support policies, and speeding up the improvement of the national unified carbon emission trading market.     

Impact of macroeconomic policy uncertainty on opportunistic insider trading

The macroeconomic policy environment affects the internal governance of microenterprises, which may provide opportunities for management to benefit from stock sales while decreasing its motivation to manipulate stock transactions. Using a sample of Chinese A-share listed companies from 2007 to 2018, we study the impact of macroeconomic policy uncertainty on opportunistic insider trading. The results show that macroeconomic policy uncertainty helps restrain the opportunistic trading of shares held by management. When macroeconomic policies are uncertain, enterprises improve their internal governance. Furthermore, strengthening equity governance helps reduce management’s opportunistic use of the uncertainty of the policy environment, highlighting the advantageous effect of macroeconomic policy uncertainty and helping regulators standardize managerial behavior and promote the governance effect of macroeconomic policy.     

经济政策不确定性与企业贷款成本

基于大样本微观银行信贷数据,本文研究经济政策不确定性对企业的银行贷款成本的影响。研究发现,经济政策不确定性升高导致企业的银行贷款成本增加,且使得在中小型银行贷款的企业成本增加更多。异质性分析表明,经济政策不确定性升高对受政策因素影响较大的企业如小微企业、私营企业等的银行贷款成本的影响更为明显。进一步,对企业的银行贷款违约风险的研究发现,随着经济政策不确定性升高,企业的银行贷款违约风险反而降低。这表明,经济政策不确定性升高使得银行选择风险评级更低的贷款,符合谨慎性动机。本文研究结论表明,经济政策不确定性升高时,银行“自我保险”动机的增强使得企业的银行贷款成本增加,这在中小型银行中表现得更加明显,同时也更多地转嫁给中小企业。本文为经济政策不确定性对企业投资、宏观经济波动等的研究提供了微观解释机制,并揭示了政府经济政策的一致性、稳定性对维护金融稳定的重要作用。     

Free market environmentalism and the neoliberal project: The case of the Climate Disclosure Standards Board

In the absence of good social, political, economic and environmental policy, the ecological status of the planet continues to deteriorate. In this paper, we argue that environmental decline has provided scope for new forms of policy-making, yet these emergent policies and policy-making bodies remain poorly understood. Drawing on the work of political geographers and political economists this paper explores the impact of neoliberalism on the development of global environmental regulation. We argue that climate disclosure practices and regulation have provided an opportunity to reinforce the ideological landscape of neoliberalism. In order to anchor this argument, we show that the origins of carbon regulation have emerged almost exclusively from within non-elected coalitions of multinationals operating through private, not-for-profit entities. These organisations continue to shape community expectations and influence government of climate change abatement strategies. To explore the impact neoliberalism has had on the environment, we examine the Climate Disclosure Standards Board (CDSB), its role, and its global impact on the regulation of reporting firms.     

混频数据信息下的时变货币政策传导行为研究——基于混频TVP-FAVAR模型

现实经济环境中,货币政策操作受到金融市场及宏观经济信息的共同影响.如何基于混频大数据信息分析货币政策行为机制是需解决的现实问题.为此,本文提出一种混频时变参数因子增广向量自回归(MF-TVP-FAVAR)模型.基于宏观经济及金融市场等多维度混频数据信息的实证结果表明:首先,MF-TVP-FAVAR模型在宏观金融混频数据中提取的金融形势指数(FCI)能较好地表征宏观经济先行趋势,为货币政策的制定提供前瞻性信息.其次,混频TVP-FAVAR模型可以捕捉价格型和数量型货币政策传导的高频时变特征.与货币供应量相比,利率传导对产出的影响具有滞后性.利率传导随着利率市场化改革愈发畅通,而信贷传导机制因财政政策搭配等问题日渐受阻.再次,货币政策传导效果受到经济周期影响,无论产出效应还是价格效应,经济上行时期,货币政策传导机制都比经济衰退时期更加通畅.价格型和数量型传导机制在经济下行时的作用效果均会减弱,但数量型货币政策更易受到经济周期的影响.最后,货币政策对FCI的冲击响应具有时变性,说明金融市场信息冲击对我国货币政策调控具有结构性的动态影响.货币当局制定尤其是微调货币政策时应及时评估金融市场信息冲击的影响.     

Impact of financial market uncertainty and macroeconomic factors on stock–bond correlation in emerging markets

This paper examines the impact of global financial market uncertainty and domestic macroeconomic factors on stock–bond correlation in emerging markets. In particular, by applying the wavelet analysis approach, we are able to examine stock–bond correlations over different time horizons in ten emerging markets. We find that stock–bond correlation patterns vary significantly between the time horizons. In particular, the correlation in short horizon changes the sign rapidly showing sustainable negative episodes while the correlation in long horizon stays positive most of the time. The most important factor influencing stock–bond correlation in short horizon is the monetary policy stance, while the factors with the greatest long-term impact are inflation and stock market uncertainty. Finally, global stock market uncertainty plays a more significant role than global bond market uncertainty in explaining stock–bond correlations in emerging markets.     

居民风险偏好与中国货币政策的宏观经济效应——基于DSGE模型的数量分析

当前,我国宏观经济形势复杂多变,货币政策实施效果的影响因素随之呈现多样化特征。在此背景下,本文试图以风险偏好为研究视角,对我国居民风险偏好水平变动与货币政策宏观经济效应之间的关系进行分析。本文以标准新凯恩斯模型为基础,构造符合我国宏观经济现实特征的DSGE(动态随机一般均衡)模型,并对转型时期的最优混合型货币政策规则进行研究;为进一步强调货币在中国宏观经济波动中所扮演的重要角色,模型中引入消费和实际货币余额不可分的跨期效用函数形式。研究结果表明:(1)包含名义货币增长的混合型泰勒规则拟合我国转型时期的货币政策规则效果最佳,因此货币供应量仍是重要的政策工具;(2)与可分性模型相比,不可分模型拟合我国宏观经济现实特征的效果更优。在不可分效用函数下,与货币供应量相关的实际货币余额将影响经济的产出缺口和通货膨胀,使得居民风险偏好成为决定货币政策效果的重要因素。具体而言,当居民风险偏好水平上升时,货币政策对我国宏观经济波动的影响随之增强。因此,在选择货币政策实施时点上,应充分考虑市场中的风险偏好情况,从而更好地发挥货币政策调控宏观经济的职能。     

居民风险偏好与中国货币政策的宏观经济效应——基于DSGE模型的数量分析

当前,我国宏观经济形势复杂多变,货币政策实施效果的影响因素随之呈现多样化特征。在此背景下,本文试图以风险偏好为研究视角,对我国居民风险偏好水平变动与货币政策宏观经济效应之间的关系进行分析。本文以标准新凯恩斯模型为基础,构造符合我国宏观经济现实特征的DSGE(动态随机一般均衡)模型,并对转型时期的最优混合型货币政策规则进行研究;为进一步强调货币在中国宏观经济波动中所扮演的重要角色,模型中引入消费和实际货币余额不可分的跨期效用函数形式。研究结果表明:(1)包含名义货币增长的混合型泰勒规则拟合我国转型时期的货币政策规则效果最佳,因此货币供应量仍是重要的政策工具;(2)与可分性模型相比,不可分模型拟合我国宏观经济现实特征的效果更优。在不可分效用函数下,与货币供应量相关的实际货币余额将影响经济的产出缺口和通货膨胀,使得居民风险偏好成为决定货币政策效果的重要因素。具体而言,当居民风险偏好水平上升时,货币政策对我国宏观经济波动的影响随之增强。因此,在选择货币政策实施时点上,应充分考虑市场中的风险偏好情况,从而更好地发挥货币政策调控宏观经济的职能。     

Examining the relationship between policy uncertainty and market uncertainty across the G7

Economic policy uncertainty (EPU) relates to ambiguity surrounding possible changes in government policy and their associate impact on firm performance. This uncertainty places additional stress on economic agents and has implications for the global economy via delays in firm investment and hiring, and postponement of household consumption. We utilise the EPU measure of Baker et al. (2016) to investigate whether financial market uncertainty is related to policy uncertainty across the G7 economies. Our empirical results show that financial market uncertainty (implied volatility) increases as economic policy uncertainty increases (and the economy weakens). This relationship holds even after controlling for macroeconomic state variables and country/time fixed effects, and is consistent for monthly and daily data frequency. The correlation of political uncertainty among countries varies over time, increasing in tranquil times with low EPU, and sharply decreasing during times of crisis. We also show that US and Japanese policy uncertainty has an economic and statistically significant relationship with global financial market uncertainty, a spill-over effect that is consistent with the size of their economies, and the important role that US policy decisions play in the global economy.     

Corporate decision making in the presence of political uncertainty: The case of corporate cash holdings

Using a quarterly panel of U.S. corporations over the period 1985–2014, we show that corporate managers respond to political uncertainty and economic policy uncertainty shocks in different ways. We proxy for political uncertainty using the Partisan Conflict Index and employ a prevalent empirical macroeconomic methodology to construct structural shocks that are orthogonal to shocks captured by the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index. Following a political uncertainty shock, corporations increase cash but do not adjust investment. Alternatively, following an economic policy uncertainty shock, firms appear to draw on cash and reduce capital spending to increase research and development spending.     

政策连续性与商业银行系统性风险

本文基于2007年第一季度至2019年第四季度中国A股32家上市银行非平衡面板数据,从“冲击”和“传染”两个维度考察了政策连续性对银行系统性风险的影响。实证结果表明,政策连续性程度的提高通过降低银行个体风险和减弱银行个体与系统的关联性进而显著降低了银行系统性风险。进一步分析发现,政策连续性降低了银行被动风险承担水平而非主动风险承担意愿,减弱了银行间接关联程度而非直接关联程度。异质性分析表明,经济下行和货币宽松时期,政策连续性对系统性风险的降低效应更大,并且本身破产风险越高、信息透明度越低的银行,其系统性风险受政策连续性的影响越大。区分不同类型的政策发现,货币政策、财政政策、汇率与资本项目政策的连续性上升均能显著降低银行系统性风险,其中货币政策连续性对银行系统性风险的影响力度最大。     

The Pollution Premium

This paper studies the asset pricing implications of industrial pollution. A long-short portfolio constructed from firms with high versus low toxic emission intensity within an industry generates an average annual return of 4.42%, which remains significant after controlling for risk factors. This pollution premium cannot be explained by existing systematic risks, investor preferences, market sentiment, political connections, or corporate governance. We propose and model a new systematic risk related to environmental policy uncertainty. We use the growth in environmental litigation penalties to measure regime change risk and find that it helps price the cross section of emission portfolios' returns.     

Political Stability and the Effectiveness of Currency Based Macro Prudential Measures

The use of multiple currency based macroprudential tools by Reserve Bank of India, India’s central bank, has helped create resilience in the economy, especially during financial turmoil. However, in a democratic set-up like India, the analysis of capital based macroprudential reforms needs to incorporate the political stability, as there is increasing evidence that macroprudential policy effectiveness is closely linked to political conditions. This study incorporates the role of political stability is understanding the effectiveness of currency based macroprudential policies, by using the years of election as a proxy for political uncertainty. I develop an index of capital based macroprudential policies (CMPP) using the notifications on capital flows and risk management guidelines on foreign exchange exposures from Reserve Bank of India. Using a GARCH model, the impact of CMPP on the net capital inflows is analyzed for the period from January, 1997 to March, 2018. I find that while the presence of CMPP leads to a fall in capital flow volatility, such policies in the years of election are ineffective in curbing capital flow volatility. The paper adds to the increasing evidence coming in recent years of the link between political cycles, interest groups and macroprudential policies.

     

Economic policy uncertainty and short-term financing: The case of trade credit

We examine the impact of economic policy uncertainty on trade credit. We document a decline (increase) in accounts payable, receivable, and net credit during periods of high (low) policy uncertainty and that firms react quickly to changes in uncertainty. The relation is long-term and holds after controlling for endogeneity, non-policy economic and political uncertainties, and the Great Recession. Industry competitiveness, proxied by firm market power, moderates the impact of economic policy uncertainty on trade credit. Uncertainty about monetary and fiscal policies, taxes, and regulations are the major drivers of trade credit changes. The reduction in trade credit during periods of increasing uncertainty can be explained by financial distress, constraints, and relation-specific investment channels.     

Firm-level political risk and debt choice

We examine the effect of firm-level political risk on debt choices and find: (i) firms with higher political risk display a preference for private debt over public debt; (ii) the magnitude of this preference varies with the aggregate policy uncertainty; (iii) politically risky firms indeed receive less favorable terms in the bond market. To explain such findings, we show that private lenders have several advantages in serving politically risky borrowers. First, to the extent that lenders cannot perfectly foresee the adoption of new government policies, private lenders' expertise in implementing the reorganization process is important to limit their potential loss. Second, politically risky borrowers must undertake significant operation adjustments facing rising policy uncertainty. Private lenders can gather accurate information and closely monitor these adjustments. Last, as the severity of political risk varies with aggregate policy uncertainty, there exists an implicit contract between a borrower and its relationship bank, whereby a borrower accepts less favorable terms during normal times in exchange for the bank's support during difficult times. Taken together, this study advances our understanding of how cross-sectionally heterogeneous political risk influences corporate debt choice.     

Economic policy uncertainty and the credit channel: Aggregate and bank level U.S. evidence over several decades

Economic policy uncertainty affects decisions of households, businesses, policy makers and financial intermediaries. We first examine the impact of economic policy uncertainty on aggregate bank credit growth. Then we analyze commercial bank entity level data to gauge the effects of policy uncertainty on financial intermediaries’ lending. We exploit the cross-sectional heterogeneity to back out indirect evidence of its effects on businesses and households. We ask (i) whether, conditional on standard macroeconomic controls, economic policy uncertainty affected bank level credit growth, and (ii) whether there is variation in the impact related to banks’ balance sheet conditions; that is, whether the effects are attributable to loan demand or, if impact varies with bank level financial constraints, loan supply. We find that policy uncertainty has a significant negative effect on bank credit growth. Since this impact varies meaningfully with some bank characteristics – particularly the overall capital-to-assets ratio and bank asset liquidity-loan supply factors at least partially (and significantly) help determine the influence of policy uncertainty. Because other studies have found important macroeconomic effects of bank lending growth on the macroeconomy, our findings are consistent with the possibility that high economic policy uncertainty may have slowed the U.S. economic recovery from the Great Recession by restraining overall credit growth through the bank lending channel.     

碳定价、双重金融摩擦与“双支柱”调控

本文构建包含异质性企业、双重金融摩擦和“双支柱”政策的DSGE模型来探究碳税和碳交易这两种碳定价政策对中国宏观经济的长短期影响和作用机制。研究发现:(1)两种碳定价政策均会导致经济在短期出现一定衰退,但在长期则有助于推进经济高质量发展,达到更高的均衡水平;(2)在面对碳排放技术冲击时,相比碳税政策,碳交易政策下,碳价大幅波动会进一步加剧经济波动,在碳交易市场中对碳价设定上下限,可以有效地减轻碳排放技术冲击所导致的经济波动;(3)面对气候政策冲击,包含金融部门风险规避的双重金融摩擦会进一步加剧气候政策对宏观经济的负面影响;(4)在经济转型过程中,结构性供需不平衡会引发一定的通胀现象,但此时货币政策不宜对通胀做出过多反应,而应刺激产出,支持绿色发展,推动供需平衡,从根源上解决通胀问题。引入“双支柱”调控后发现,考虑到经济转型风险的宏观审慎政策能显著减弱气候政策所导致的经济波动和金融不稳定,提高居民福利。     

US presidential elections and implied volatility: The role of political uncertainty

This paper focuses on the effects of political uncertainty and the political process on implied stock market volatility during US presidential election cycles. Using monthly Iowa Electronic Markets data over five elections, we document that stock market uncertainty, as measured by the VIX volatility index, increases along with positive changes in the probability of success of the eventual winner. The association between implied volatility and the election probability of the eventual winner is positive even after controlling for changes in overall election uncertainty. These findings indicate that the presidential election process engenders market anxiety as investors form and revise their expectations regarding future macroeconomic policy.     

股市波动、金融政策和宏观经济关系研究——基于因子VAR模型

通过因子分析从诸宏观经济变量中提取了金融政策因子和宏观经济状态因子,建立了基于VAR的股价波动、金融政策和宏观经济三变量回归模型。研究表明：金融政策影响股价的表现,而宏观经济状态对股价、股价对金融政策和宏观经济状态的影响均不显著;基于标准差的VAR（5）模型相对于基于收益率的VAR（3）模型能更好地刻画股市波动与金融政策、宏观经济三者之间的关系。