金融普惠可以提高减贫质量吗?——基于多维贫困的分析

切实提高减贫质量对我国打赢打好脱贫攻坚战和守住脱贫成果至关重要。金融普惠作为当前我国金融改革和脱贫攻坚的重要举措,是否有助于提高减贫质量仍是有待回答的问题。文章基于中国家庭金融调查2015年数据,从多维贫困和多维贫困脆弱性两方面出发研究了金融普惠对我国农村减贫质量的影响。研究发现,金融普惠可以同时降低农村家庭多维贫困和多维贫困脆弱性,并且对多维贫困问题严重的农村家庭有更大的作用;区分不同贫困和不同金融服务发现,金融普惠可以显著降低收入贫困、教育贫困及生活质量贫困,对健康贫困的影响则不显著;银行营业网点与金融服务点渗透、以及储蓄、贷款、保险及数字金融服务使用可以提高减贫质量,而其他金融机构渗透、信用卡使用及银行服务评价的作用相对有限。进一步地,文章研究了金融普惠减贫质量效应的环境条件,发现村庄市场及制度环境和家庭需求环境改善有助于充分发挥金融普惠的积极作用,相反则可能构成一定的制约。最后,文章检验了金融普惠的影响机制,发现促进农村家庭人力与物质资本积累、以及地区经济发展等在其中发挥了重要的中介作用。文章结论为我国提高减贫质量提供了可靠的政策工具,同时也可促进我国全面建成小康社会和经济实现高质量发展。     

The link between credit markets and self-employment choice among households in rural China

Our paper examines how credit markets operate through wealth to influence households’ entrepreneurial choices. Our results show that policy-led bank branch withdrawal in rural China has a significant negative impact on credit availability to rural households, though unexpectedly the effect is felt more strongly in informal than formal credit markets. Furthermore, we observe that self-employment is impeded by reductions in wealth associated with credit contraction. Policies which provide more and better formal financial services to rural households are predicted to increase the flow of credit, through both formal and informal channels, thereby supporting accumulation, diversification, and economic growth.     

中国农村扶贫项目的目标定位

I. IntroductionHistorically, poverty is a rural phenomenon in China. The majority of the poor populationis still living in rural areas, although it is widely reported that the number of poor poeple hasdeclined dramatically since the end of 1978 when reform was initiated (The World Bank,2001; National Bureau of Statistics, NBS, 2001). The official estimate indicates that therewere 34 million of poor people in rural China in 1999 (NBS, 2001). However, it is argued thattheir dramatic reduct…     

Financial inclusion as a pathway to welfare enhancement and income equality: Micro-level evidence from Nigeria

While the importance of financial inclusion as a means of poverty and income inequality reduction has long been recognised, the paths to welfare enhancement and income equality through financial inclusion remain partially acknowledged. Using micro-level data on 1 750 rural Nigerian households, this study examines the finance-welfare nexus by constructing a multi-variable financial inclusion index. The results first show that financial inclusion exerts a strong positive influence on household welfare. However, the decomposition analysis shows that middle- and high-income households gain more from financial inclusion in comparison to the targeted low-income households. Second, informal livelihood strategies, such as environmental resource extraction, crops, and livestock production, revealed reduced welfare disparities across income distributions. Therefore, for financial inclusion to alleviate welfare inequality and ensure income convergence, rural financial markets must be redesigned to allow wider access to credit, specifically for low-income and vulnerable households.     

How do poverty alleviation coordinators help the impoverished in rural China? -- Evidence from the Chinese poor population tracking dataset

The loss of targeting efficiency due to information asymmetry is a longstanding problem in aid programs. China's Targeted Poverty Alleviation (TPA) program addresses this problem by assigning local government officials to individual impoverished households. These officials, referred to as poverty alleviation coordinators (PACs), are required to pay frequent home visits to the assigned households and to deploy policy resources for poverty reduction. The program is costly in terms of human resources because the officials also have regular duties in a variety of departments. We investigate the effects of the PAC system on poverty alleviation and explore the mechanisms of the effects. Based on the Chinese Poor Population Tracking Dataset and econometric analysis, we find that the households with a larger income increase are those whose PACs work in a department that has the type of resources needed by the household. This indicates that a good match between the resource and the need could enhance the effect of the TPA program. In addition, PACs at a higher position in the governance structure show a larger income increase in their assigned households, which is expected, because a higher position could have more resources to deploy. These findings shed light on role of institutional arrangements in alleviating information asymmetry in poverty reduction programs.     

健康冲击、社会资本与农户经济脆弱性——基于“CHIP2013”数据的实证分析

健康人力资本在农村经济中发挥着重要作用,农户健康受损时,会通过"劳动效应"、"挤占效应"和"情感效应"影响其经济脆弱性,而社会资本作为一种非正式机制,在血缘、地缘与业缘关系的连接下,通过及时获取信息与资源等对农户经济产生影响。文章利用"中国家庭收入调查2013"数据实证分析了健康冲击和社会资本对农户经济脆弱性的影响及作用机制。通过倾向得分匹配（PSM）和处理效应模型解决内生偏误问题、建立中介效应模型后,回归结果显示：健康冲击会通过挤占效应和情感效应两条渠道机制对农户经济产生负向影响,社会资本分项指标则通过信任渠道机制对农户经济产生正向影响;男性户主更易因遭受健康冲击而陷入经济脆弱困境,处于劳动年龄的户主在利用社会资本缓解经济脆弱性方面更具优势;而社会资本在缓解健康冲击对农户经济脆弱性中的作用并不显著,一个可能的原因是在农村社会中,社会资本等非正式机制逐渐被正式医疗保障机制所替代。在稳健性检验中,构造基于预期贫困定义的贫困脆弱性指标（VEP）进行替换变量回归,进一步证实所得结论。文章的政策涵义在于,应加强对于农户健康风险的管理,并重新挖掘社会资本在农村经济发展中的作用,从而缓解经济脆弱性,阻断贫困。     

Household spending patterns and flow of ecotourism income into communities around Liwonde National Park,Malawi

Rural Malawi is largely characterised by high levels of poverty, unemployment and high population densities. It is also seen as the ‘warm heart of Africa’, which, together with its abundant natural resources, makes it an excellent destination for international ecotourists. This paper looks at the impact of ecotourism employment on poverty reduction and the flow of ecotourism income into the villages adjacent to Liwonde National Park. Extensive questionnaire surveys were conducted with staff employed in ecotourism as well as with rural households in the villages adjacent to the Park. Comparisons of household income and social welfare highlight the important role of ecotourism employment in lifting people in these rural villages above the poverty line. Household spending patterns illustrate the flow of income from ecotourism into the local economy and the important impact of this on local socio-economic development. Suggestions for increasing local multiplier effects of ecotourism are put forward.     

Determinants of Poverty Status in Rwanda

This study finds determinants of poverty status using the 2010–11 Integrated Household Living Conditions Survey (EICV3) and suggests policy implications for poverty reduction in Rwanda. Characteristics of households related to poverty status are considered in an ordered probit model and marginal effects are calculated. Policies towards supporting a female household, controlling the birthrate of a household and alleviating regional disparity, especially with a focus on rural areas and the Southern Province will be effective. In addition, supporting farmers who do not own a farm and increasing vocational programmes may be also helpful for poverty reduction in Rwanda. Expanding the land use consolidation programme with a facilitating food market may be beneficial.     

The determinants of rural and urban household poverty in the North West province of South Africa

Based on standard poverty measures, the extent of poverty in the North West province is on average worse than in South Africa. For instance, the poverty gap ratio for North West is twice that of the South African average, and the FGT index is three times as high. This article therefore aims to identify the determinants of rural and urban poverty in the North West province of South Africa. Using data gathered from a survey of 593 black households across the province, probit model estimates suggest that the major significant determinants of household poverty in both rural and urban areas are education and household size. A difference between rural and urban poverty is, first, that extra female adults in a rural household raise the probability of poverty. Secondly, having a migrant (out) worker as head of the household in rural areas lowers the probability of poverty, while this does not apply to urban households. A sensitivity analysis for the robustness of the results over a range of poverty lines reveals that the impact of education is much stronger for poorer households than for more wealthy households.     

Household Financial Savings Mobilisation: Empirical Evidence from Uganda

Panel data are used to examine household savings behaviour inUganda and the part that is played by formal financial institutionsin mobilising those savings. We show that the probability ahousehold will acquire a deposit instrument from a financialinstitution increases significantly for both rural and urbanhouseholds with improvements in several factors. Those factorsinclude the level of information that is made available to thehousehold, the degree of household access to the financial institution,the level of education of the head of household and the densityof financial institutions in the area where the household islocated. Among those households that report holding bank savingsdeposits, the level of net deposits is positively influencedby increases in the availability of credit facilities, lowertransaction costs (as reflected by the quality of financialservices provided by the institution) and higher permanent income.Relatively higher real rates of return on physical assets andhigher transaction costs (due to reduced accessibility) bothhave significant negative effects on the level of net depositsheld by households.     

Born to be different: The role of local political leaders in poverty reduction in China

By incorporating imprinting theory into a political–economic framework, this paper studies the role of local political leaders in poverty reduction. Exploiting exogenous turnovers of city-level party secretaries in China, I find that city secretaries with early-life poverty experiences are more likely to increase the incomes of poor families in their jurisdictions. I further find that the effect of city secretaries' poverty experiences on the income of the poor is more pronounced in the counties that are not officially categorized as impoverished by the central government and among the families living above the poverty line set by the Chinese government but below the international poverty line proposed by the World Bank. It is suggested that local political leaders affect poverty reduction outcomes by instilling their personal preferences, which can be shaped by their early experiences, into their economic decisions.     

The impact of commercial bank branch expansion on energy efficiency: Micro evidence from China

The debate has long prevailed as to whether the financial sectors can enhance energy efficiency. We attempt to provide new insight into this debate from the perspective of commercial bank branch expansion. This paper manually collects the longitude and latitude of commercial bank branches and manufacturing firms in China, and constructs multiple bank branch expansion variables at the firm level. Then, by utilizing Environmental Survey and Reporting database, Annual Survey of Industrial Firms, and firm-level patent application dataset from 1998 to 2009, this paper empirically examines the impact of commercial bank branch expansion on firms' energy efficiency for the first time and discusses the potential impact channels. We find that the expansion of commercial bank branches within a radius of 10 km of firms has improved the manufacturing firms' energy efficiency. Furthermore, we also confirm that there exist multiple heterogeneous nexuses between the bank branch expansion and energy efficiency. Finally, the financial availability caused by the bank branch expansion is not able to affect the energy efficiency, whereas the bank competition will increase the energy efficiency. Also, the bank branch expansion increases energy efficiency by promoting capital renewal instead of technological innovation.     

Why do migrant households consume so little?

Exploring data from the migrant and urban household surveys of the Chinese Household Income Project, this paper dissects the underlying causes of the depressing effect of the hukou system on migrant household consumption to two channels. On one hand, migrants' disentitlement to local urban hukou creates financial insecurity through barriers to employment, social welfare, medical insurance, etc., thereby encouraging precautionary saving. On the other hand, it promotes temporary migration, allows divergence in tastes and values from local urban residents to persist, and incentivizes migrant households to save their transitory income. Factors reflecting these two channels, such as medical and pension insurances, the duration of migration, and local homeownership, are specifically modeled, and they are found to contribute to the discrepancies in consumption between migrant and local urban households, among other factors. In addition, the marginal propensity to consume exhibits heterogeneity across migrant households; it is higher with a longer duration of migration, local homeownership, and self-employment. The lack of these attributes further reinforces the reluctance of migrant households to consume.     

我国农村普惠金融的减贫增收效应研究——基于4023户农户微观数据的断点回归

文章利用全国27省份517个村庄的4023户农户微观调研数据，使用模糊断点回归方法，对农村普惠金融的贫困减缓效应和经济增长效应进行了实证检验。结果发现，在东部地区，普惠金融的发展降低了绝对贫困和相对贫困水平，促进了经济增长；在中部地区，普惠金融的发展有利于绝对贫困水平和相对贫困水平的下降，对于经济增长的促进效用不明显；在西部地区，普惠金融的发展有利于绝对贫困水平的下降，但增加了相对贫困并抑制了经济增长。基于此，文章提出在农村普惠金融的推广过程中，应注意其发展战略实施的区域差别化，以实现普惠金融积极效应的最大发挥。     

Changing Sources of Household Income,Poverty, and Sectoral Inequality in Sri Lanka, 1990–2006

Comparing dynamic changes in household income and poverty among urban, rural, and estate sectors in Sri Lanka from 1990 to 2006, this study finds that a shift of household income away from farm to nonfarm sources is accompanied by a significant improvement in household income and reduction in poverty, particularly in the rural sector. Major contributing factors are the rise in returns to labor, in general, and educated labor, in particular, due to the development of the nonfarm labor market. Persistently low income among estate households can be explained primarily by the limited availability of nonfarm employment opportunities and the low education levels of working members.     

FinTech adoption and the effects of economic uncertainty on household consumption

This paper examines how the adoption of FinTech affects household consumption in the presence of economic uncertainty. We use regional-level FinTech adoption and economic uncertainty measurement, along with representative household-level consumption data, to investigate this issue. Our empirical analysis shows that while high levels of economic uncertainty lead to a shift in household consumption from services to non-durable goods, widespread adoption of FinTech overcomes this negative effect and prevents the reduction in service spending. We use the distance of a household from Hangzhou and the economic uncertainty in the United States as proxies for exogenous variation in FinTech adoption and economic uncertainty in China, respectively, and find similar results. Focusing on the transmission channel, we find that FinTech helps alleviate credit constraints, contributes to entrepreneurship and employment opportunities, and thus mitigates the negative impact of economic uncertainty on household consumption.     

Firm agglomeration and local poverty reduction: evidence from an economy in transition

We examine the linkages between firm agglomeration and the welfare of households in Vietnam. We measured firm agglomeration by per capita firm output at the district level and household welfare by per capita income, expenditure, and poverty. We find that firm agglomeration helps households move from the informal sector to the formal sector. As a result, there is a positive effect of firm agglomeration on per capita income, per capita expenditure, and poverty reduction, albeit of a small and time‐decreasing magnitude. The effect of firm agglomeration on per capita expenditure tends to be higher for households with men, younger, and more educated heads than households with women, older, and less educated heads. Households in rural areas and those that do not have crop land are more likely to benefit from firm agglomeration than those living in urban areas and having crop land.     

Trade openness and household welfare within a country: A microeconomic analysis of Vietnamese households

The positive effects of trade liberalisation on several dimensions of poverty have initiated studies of the trade–poverty relationship. Trade liberalisation accompanies institutional reforms that help to reduce institutional barriers against the poor. This study examines the impacts of trade openness and institutional reforms on rural household welfare at the provincial level through the analysis of the determinants of welfare of rural households in Vietnam. The study employs a model of micro-determinants of growth and tests it on the data from the Vietnam Household Living Standards Surveys (VHLSSs) of 2006 and 2010. What makes the study different from some other studies of the same vein is that it attempts to directly capture the institutional effect on welfare. The study finds that, in the provinces with high institutional reforms and trade openness, the welfare of rural households improved. Institutional reforms in Vietnam appeared to be sluggish in the late 2000s. In particular, both access to land and lower informal charges were the important determinants of welfare improvement over time. These findings suggest that Vietnam should maintain its development by accelerating the process of institutional reforms, thereby helping poor households to improve standards of living.     

Food poverty,hunger and household production in rural Eastern Cape households

More than two decades since the advent of democracy in South Africa, the place of small-scale agriculture in rural development, poverty alleviation and food security remains ambiguous and highly contested. However, there is now some new evidence that official income poverty estimates in South Africa may be underestimating the contribution of rural, land-based livelihoods when measuring household well-being. This paper aims to explore this possibility further by identifying how household production activities are associated with improved food security among rural Eastern Cape households in the former homelands. The analysis is based on data from Statistics South Africa’s 2008/9 Living Conditions Survey and its annual General Household Surveys. In adopting a food poverty lens, the findings suggest that hunger levels are lower among farming households in the Eastern Cape even though a higher percentage of these households (relative to non-farming households) live below the national food poverty line. The paper concludes by discussing some implications for policy.     

Testing the impact of financial inclusion on income convergence: Empirical evidence from Nigeria

Financial inclusion, as a key pillar for inclusive development, has long been considered as an important instrument for reducing poverty and income inequality. However, the income convergence effect of financial inclusion remains only partially explored. Using longitudinal data covering three survey waves on Nigerian households, this study explores the potential of financial inclusion as an instrument for reducing income disparity. After controlling for the endogeneity issues, the results of instrumental variable linear and quantile regressions consistently show a strong nexus between financial inclusion and per capita income. This positive effect is experienced by all households regardless of income distribution. The decomposition results reveal that ab initio, financial inclusion resulted in income divergence leading to widening inequality across the households with various income distributions. However, the income convergence started from the middle to the higher income household categories, with the lowest income lagging behind in the second wave. The lowest income households eventually converged in the data of the third wave. In this sense, it can be argued that financial inclusion could play an important role in the reduction of income inequality.