Electricity Consumption–Economic Growth–CO2 Emissions Nexus in Sub‐Saharan Africa: Evidence from Panel Cointegration

This study explores the causal relationship among electricity consumption, economic growth and CO₂ emissions for a group of 14 sub‐Sahara African (SSA) countries from 1980 to 2009 using panel cointegration and panel vector error correction modelling methods. The findings demonstrate that in the long run electricity consumption has a statistically significant positive impact on CO₂ emissions. The results also reveal that the inverted U‐shaped Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis exists in the SSA countries' case. The panel causality tests indicate that there is short‐run unidirectional causality running from economic growth to CO₂ emissions and electricity consumption respectively. Simultaneously, there is long‐run bidirectional causality between electricity consumption and economic growth, electricity consumption and CO₂ emissions, economic growth and CO₂ emissions. Depending on the results, relevant policies can be initiated without negatively affecting economic growth.     

Regional variation of energy-related industrial CO2 emissions mitigation in China

This paper analyzes the reasons for regional variations in industrial CO₂ emissions mitigation. First, regional industrial CO₂ emissions during the “11th Five-Year Plan” period are calculated based on the presented method. Then a two-level perfect decomposition method, LMDI, is used to find the nature of the factors that influence the changes in energy-related industrial CO₂ emissions in nine economic regions in China. The changes of industrial CO₂ emissions are decomposed into energy emission factor effect, energy structure effect, energy intensity effect, industrial structure effect and economic output effect. As the results suggest, rapid growth of industry is the most important factor responsible for the increase in CO₂ emissions. The adjustment of both industrial structure and energy structure contributes to the increase of CO₂ emissions slightly. Energy consumption per unit GDP is the most important measure of CO₂ emissions and the energy emission factor by itself also makes a weeny contribution to CO₂ reduction as a result of electricity generation efficiency enhancement.     

Economic development and carbon dioxide emissions in China: Provincial panel data analysis

This paper investigates the driving forces, emission trends and reduction potential of China's carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions based on a provincial panel data set covering the years 1995 to 2009. A series of static and dynamic panel data models are estimated, and then an optimal forecasting model selected by out-of-sample criteria is used to forecast the emission trend and reduction potential up to 2020. The estimation results show that economic development, technology progress and industry structure are the most important factors affecting China's CO₂ emissions, while the impacts of energy consumption structure, trade openness and urbanization level are negligible. The inverted U-shaped relationship between per capita CO₂ emissions and economic development level is not strongly supported by the estimation results. The impact of capital adjustment speed is significant. Scenario simulations further show that per capita and aggregate CO₂ emissions of China will increase continuously up to 2020 under any of the three scenarios developed in this study, but the reduction potential is large.     

Patterns of historical CO2 intensity transitions among high and low-income countries

This article examines the long-term relationship between CO₂ emissions and economic development for various high-income OECD countries that, in turn, are compared with pattern for developing countries. A majority of high-income countries have experienced environmental Kuznets curve types of transitions with respect to CO₂ intensity (emissions per GDP), while the these patterns are absent in the poorer countries. Moreover, the overall historical pattern is one of convergence with respect to intensities. These observations are consistent with an explanation that takes into account includes time-specific, or vintage technology.     

Electricity consumption and economic development in Asia: new data and new methods

This study uses a new statistical technique, Panel Analysis of Nonstationarity in Idiosyncratic and Common Components (PANIC) analysis, to examine causal linkages between electricity consumption and economic development in 12 Asian countries over the period 1971–2011. The findings indicate that there was no long‐run equilibrium relationship between electricity consumption and economic development in the region as a whole. More importantly, the causality tests detected unidirectional causality from economic development to electricity consumption for East Asian countries and a reverse causal relationship for South Asian countries. These findings have important policy implications for sustainable energy consumption.     

What can Indonesia learn from China's industrial energy saving programs?

Even though Indonesia's CO₂ emissions are dominated by deforestation while China's are dominated by industry, Indonesia has much to learn from China's industrial energy saving programs. To begin with, it is only a matter of time before Indonesia's emissions from fossil fuels overtake those from deforestation. Given the long technological lock-in effects of energy systems and industries, Indonesia needs to think now about how it will tackle this problem. There are other reasons for believing that Indonesia might learn something from China – the CO₂ intensities of GDP, of industry and of cement production have been rising in Indonesia, while they are falling in China. China's better intensity performance is due to policies that Indonesia would do well to follow – adopting a technological catch-up industrial development strategy; raising energy prices to scarcity values; liberalising domestic markets and opening the economy to trade and investment; and mounting a massive energy saving program.     

中国城镇居民生活用能和生活垃圾CO2排放测算及影响因素研究

利用IPCC1996经验公式测算了1980-2011年中国城镇居民使用生活能源和生活垃圾填埋分解过程中排放的CO2。人均CO2排放量和人均生活能源CO2排放量呈先下降再上升的趋势,生活垃圾产生的CO2呈先波动上升再趋于平稳的趋势。采用WLS方法分析了其影响因素。城镇居民恩格尔系数和城镇失业率与人均CO2排放量呈负相关关系,人均GDP、第三产业占GDP比例、城镇化水平和城镇居民行为习惯与人均CO2排放量呈正相关关系;城镇居民行为习惯对人均CO2排放量的变化影响最大。     

长三角居民生活用电量时空差异及驱动因素研究

以长三角为例,采用LMDI模型和M-R模型从时空视角将2009—2019年长三角居民用电差异的驱动因素分解为人口规模效应、人口城镇化效应、家庭规模效应、用电强度效应。研究发现：用电强度、家庭规模、人口规模是推动长三角居民用电量增加的因素,用电强度推动作用最大,人口城镇化抑制了用电量增加;长三角居民用电量的空间差异在逐渐扩大,人口规模是上海、江苏空间差异的关键驱动因素,浙江空间差异主要来源于农村较高的用电强度,安徽则是由于农村较低的用电强度。降低江苏和浙江用电强度,提高安徽城镇化程度和农村用电强度,研发和使用绿色建材和智能电器是控制长三角居民用电增长和缩小空间差异的关键路径。     

CO2 Emissions Embodied in China＇s Foreign Trade： An Investigation from the Perspective of Global Vertical Specialization

In light of the growth in vertically specialized in global trade, the present paper uses input output tables from the World Input-Output Database to construct an environmental multi regional input-output model to calculate the CO2 emissions embodied in China＇s international trade during 1995-2009. The advantage of this model lies in its incorporation of the re exported CO2 emissions component embodied in trade and its ability to differentiate domestic sourced CO2 emissions from foreign-sourced CO2 emissions in trade. The results show that carbon emissions embodied in both China＇s exports and imports increased significantly during 1995-2009. One important reason for this is that the re-exported carbon emissions embodied in China＇s imported intermediate inputs increased substantially during this period. Our research reveals that accelerating the transformation of trade pattern and upgrading processing trade should be emphasized in the formulation of policy to prompt CO 2 emissions abatement in China.     

Carbon capture and storage investment strategy towards the dual carbon goals

This paper develops a real option model combined with the Monte Carlo simulation to analyze the impact of the “dual carbon goals” on the CCS investment timing in China. The trajectory of CO₂ prices is predicted to follow a geometric Brownian motion with jump. The CO₂ prices are predicted on the basis of three scenarios: high, medium, and low shocks, respectively. Furthermore, the real option method is adopted to derive the appropriate incentive schemes and corresponding target CO₂ prices that sustain CCS operations to assist China’s dual carbon goals. Notably, portfolios of two government incentive policies are compared, including clean electricity tariff and carbon tax. The results show that building an efficient national carbon emissions trading scheme (ETS) is crucial to catalyzing the deployment of CCS technology, shortening the waiting time of CCS investment to 5.9 years at best. Government incentives could further bring the threshold CO₂ prices down and the expected waiting time of CCS investment forward.     

Accelerating growth in Poland through privatization

Abstract

This study examines relationships among information communications technology (ICT), carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and economic growth. The panel annual data are constructed from 1991 to 2009 for nine members from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. The study examines the long-run equilibrium relationship using cointegration techniques and the short-run relationships using cointegrating regression estimation methods. Test results indicate a long-run equilibrium relationship exists among these variables. Among these relationships, ICT shows significant to highly significant positive effects on both economic growth and CO₂ emissions. Significant to highly significant inverse bidirectional relationships between economic growth and CO₂ emissions are found in the region. Based on these empirical findings, further policy implications for economic growth, ICT and CO₂ emissions are discussed.     

城市化对二氧化碳排放的影响——来自中国时间序列和省际面板数据的经验证据

本文以中国为研究对象,同时考虑城市化对二氧化碳排放的影响的动态变化和地区差异,利用时间序列数据(1952-2009年)和省际面板数据(1995-2009年),分别以排放总量、人均排放量和碳强度等三类二氧化碳排放指标,使用多种估计方法实证检验了城市化对二氧化碳排放的影响。研究结论如下:(1)时间序列数据的经验估计表明,城市化对二氧化碳排放存在显著地正的影响,弹性在0.10%-0.12左右。(2)静态面板数据的经验估计表明,城市化与二氧化碳排放之间存在U型的非线性关系;而动态面板数据的经验估计表明,城市化对二氧化碳排放总量存在显著地负的影响,弹性为0.19%,而城市化对人均二氧化碳排放量和碳强度尽管存在负的影响,但在统计上并不显著。(3)时间序列数据和面板数据的经验估计均表明,城市化并非影响二氧化碳排放的关键因素,而人均GDP、能源强度、人口等对二氧化碳排放存在显著地正的影响。     

Economic Benefits and Environmental Costs of China's Exports: A Comparison with the USA Based on Network Analysis

This paper decomposes economic benefits (value‐added) and environmental costs (CO₂) of exports according to their sources, and maps the global value network (GVN) and the global emissions network (GEN) for China's exports during 1995–2009 from national, sectoral and national–sectoral perspectives. A comparison is conducted between China and the USA. National GVN and GEN show that shares of value‐added and CO₂ emissions from China in its GVN and GEN both decreased first then increased after 2006, while shares from the USA in its GVN and GEN generally decreased. Sectoral GVN and GEN show that among China's exports, “electrical and optical equipment” and “electricity, gas and water supply” were, respectively, the sectors that obtained the most value‐added and emitted the most CO₂. National–sectoral GVN and GEN for China exhibited reciprocal and disassortative patterns, and in‐strengths and out‐strengths of GVN and GEN for China's exports were mainly captured by several domestic country–sector pairs.     

Carbon emissions,trade liberalization,and the Japan–ASEAN interaction: A group-wise examination

As in any modern economy, trade is central to the progress of the economy in the Association of Southeast Asian Countries (ASEAN) region, but environmental degradation occurs with globalization. Using panel data from the period 1970–2006, this study examines the interaction between trade and the environment in terms of carbon emissions for the group of ASEAN countries. The results demonstrate that CO₂ emissions display an inverted-S shape in the region. In general, exports as a percentage of the gross domestic product (GDP) are main contributors to carbon emissions in the developed, developing and late-developing ASEAN countries. The study found no evidence for the Foreign Direct Investment’s (FDI) deteriorating impact on environmental quality. Moreover, Japan’s imports from the region do not cause pollution while China’s imports stimulate the pollution per capita.     

Estimation of China＇s Embodied CO2 Emissions during 2000-2009

The problem of CO₂ embodied in international trade has attracted increasing attention in China. To analyze this issue, the present paper directly calculates emission factors for 15 industries in 2002, 2005 and 2007. We then examine a consumption‐based system and a single‐region input–output model to estimate China's embodied emissions during 2000–2009. Our results show that, when a consumption‐based system is adopted, China's emissions are lower than those reported by some international organizations. The rapid growth in China's exports is a key determinant of China's rising total emissions. All countries should strengthen their cooperation in improving their current greenhouse gas inventories. Furthermore, China needs to encourage trade in low‐carbon products and technology.     

Conditional cooperation in case of a global public good – Experimental evidence from climate change mitigation in Beijing

In this experimental study, we investigate whether when subjects in Beijing, China, have the opportunity to contribute to a global public good, their behavior is conditionally cooperative. For this purpose, participants were offered the opportunity to contribute to climate change mitigation by purchasing permits from the Beijing carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions trading scheme (ETS). The purchased permits were then withdrawn from the ETS. Here, individual behavior is controlled by means of the strategy method. In this study, we observed different types of behavior, including conditionally cooperative behavior. Overall, the probability of contributing to CO₂ emissions reduction is higher if the subjects considering contributing to CO₂ emissions reduction can assume that a two-thirds majority of all the other subjects are also willing to do so, compared to a situation where only up to one-third of all the other participants decide to contribute to this scheme.     

International trade,FDI (foreign direct investment) and embodied CO2 emissions: A case study of Chinas industrial sectors

This paper calculates CO₂ emissions embodied in China's international trade using an input–output analysis, for the period 2000–2010. Based on industrial panel data, the two-step GMM estimation is used to test the impacts of FDI, trade openness, exports, imports and per capita income on CO₂ emissions. The results suggest that: (1) China's growing trade surplus is one of the important reasons for the rapidly rising CO₂ emissions; (2) large FDI inflows further aggravate China's CO₂ emissions; and (3) the industrial sector's per capita income and CO₂ emission relationship show inverted-U environmental Kuznets curve. Therefore, in order to achieve environmentally sustainable development of the economy, China should make efforts to transform its trade growth mode, adjust foreign investment structure, strengthen energy efficiency and develop a low-carbon economy.     

Regional allocation of carbon dioxide abatement in China

This paper aims to identify which provinces will be allocated more (less) of a carbon dioxide reduction burden within China's pledge to reduce its carbon intensity at the Copenhagen conference. Using an extended Slacks-Based Measure (SBM) model incorporating an undesirable output, the CO₂ reduction potential and marginal abatement costs are estimated for 29 provinces over the period 1995–2007. The CO₂ Abatement Capacity Index (ACI) is constructed based on weighted equity and efficiency indexes. We find that there exists a large gap in potential reduction capability and marginal abatement cost among the eastern, middle and western regions. The eastern region has the least inefficient emission and the highest marginal abatement cost, while the western region has the largest potential reduction capability and the lowest marginal cost faced in reducing CO₂ emissions. The difference in potential CO₂ abatement among the provinces results from different industry structures, energy compositions and degrees of the openness of trade. The ACI ranking and the final allocation among provinces depend on the policy-makers' preferences regarding equity and efficiency.     

Driving factors of CO2 emission inequality in China: The role of government expenditure

China has reached a consensus regarding the total control of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions; however, regional emission inequalities still exist. The reduction of carbon emissions is a public good and indicates a strong positive externality, which is difficult to solve within the market. Such reductions are highly dependent on governmental contributions. Therefore, using the Theil index and the logarithmic mean Divisia index decomposition approach, this paper integrates government expenditure into an analysis framework, investigating the driving factors of emission inequality and the status and changes of China's CO₂ emission inequality from 2007 to 2015, attributing emission inequality to disparities in governmental expenditures, energy consumption, and other socioeconomic factors. The empirical results show that imbalances in economic development, population distribution, and energy structure were prerequisites for a regional emission inequality, while disparities in government expenditure also played an important role. Among these factors, disparities in the expenditure structure were the main cause for emission inequality. The findings of this paper provide guidelines for the government to set carbon emission reduction quota and implement reasonable differentiated emission reduction policies.     

Output volatility of five crisis-affected East Asia economies

A decade has passed since the Asian financial crisis (AFC) in 1997, and attention is drawn to the output performance of the crisis-affected economies in East Asia. Using the Hodrick–Prescott (HP) filter, this paper examines the growth volatility of GDP, its components and the stock market of five East Asia economies of Japan, Singapore, South Korea, Chinese Taipei and Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR). Empirical evidences based on quarterly data show that output volatility for both Singapore and South Korea has increased after the AFC. For the GDP components, trade is a major factor in lowering GDP volatility in Chinese Taipei. The Hong Kong SAR economy has experienced an increase/decrease in the volatility of investment/private consumption. Among the five East Asia economies, government intervention is obvious in Singapore. The stock markets in both Hong Kong SAR and Chinese Taipei showed stronger ability in absorbing shocks.