How Sensitive are Individual Retirement Expectations to Raising the Retirement Age?

This paper investigates the causal effects of the announcement of an increase in the statutory pension age on employee retirement expectations. In June 2010, the Dutch government signed a new pension agreement with the employer and employee organizations that entailed an increase in the statutory pension age from 65 currently to 66 in 2020 for all inhabitants born after 1954. Given the expected increase in average life expectancy, it was also decided that in 2025 the pension age would be further increased to 67 for those born after 1959. This new pension agreement received huge media coverage. Using representative matched administrative and survey data of public sector employees, we find that the proposed policy reform increased the expected retirement age by 3.6 months for employees born between 1954 and 1959 and by 10.8 months for those born after 1959. This increase is reflected in a clear shift in the retirement peak from age 65 to ages 66 and 67 for the respective treated cohorts. Men respond less strongly to the policy reform than women, but within couples we find no evidence that the retirement expectations of one spouse are affected by an increase in the statutory pension age of the other. Furthermore, we show that treatment effects are largely driven by highly educated individuals but are lower for employees whose job involves physically demanding tasks or managerial and supervisory tasks.     

Education and welfare program compliance: Firm-level evidence from a pension reform in China

This study examines how firms with heterogeneous human capital quality respond differently to a welfare policy shock. In 2002, China expanded pension mandates from state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to private enterprises. Based on data covering all median and large manufacturers in China (around 250,000 firms), we find that their compliance rates varied widely across firms and increased in the average education level of employees. Utilizing these heterogeneous responses at the firm level, we estimate that the pension reform might have increased the return to education of employees by 8.75%. To address endogeneity in firms' human capital levels, we exploit the historical scale of local university as an instrumental variable. Moreover, we use SOEs as a control group, which was not directly affected by the policy shock. We find our empirical estimates robust to both measures.     

Union effects on performance and employment relations: Evidence from China

This paper empirically studies union effects on the performance of, and employment relations in, China's private enterprises. The study finds a positive and statistically significant union effect on labor productivity, but not on profitability. It further finds that unions lead to better employee benefits and increased contract signing in employment. These findings suggest that, in the era of transition from a centrally planned to a market economy, unions in China's private enterprises do promote workers' interests as unions do in other economies. And they do that without abandoning their traditional role of harmonizing employment relations, as required by the Party.     

Does New Rural Pension Scheme decrease elderly labor supply? Evidence from CHARLS

This paper examines the effect of the New Rural Pension Scheme (NRPS) on the labor supply behavior of the elderly in rural China. Using pooled data from two waves of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Survey (CHARLS) and an analytical framework of combination of regression discontinuity design and difference in difference method (RD-DiD), we find no evidence that pension receipt from the NRPS program does significantly induce the elderly to withdraw from the labor market. The heterogeneous effects by health status indicate that pension recipient slightly decreases the probability of labor force participation for those individuals with chronic diseases; however, the effect is not statistically significant. The empirical findings suggest that the introduction of the NRPS program does not improve the welfare effect of the originally targeted elder individuals with illness.     

日本社会养老保障制度变革对我国的启示

劳动力市场就业模式与年龄结构的变化是日本上世纪80年代以来养老金制度改革的基本动因,改革思路是顺应劳动力市场变革状况与趋势。有鉴于此,中国应基于劳动力市场多重分割,劳动者收入多重差距的现实,顺应劳动力市场一体化趋势,构建公平分配代际劳动产品的多层次多元社会养老保障制度。     

Pooling my personal account: Income responses to the payroll tax in China

Developing countries collect not only a far lower share of GDP in taxes, but also less payroll taxes than rich countries. This paper explores income responses to the payroll tax by evaluating the 2006 pension reform that subtracted 3 percentage points of employees' Defined Contribution account in China. First, our estimate of total income elasticity with respect to the pension rate is larger than 2, implying a lower optimal payroll tax rate than in rich countries. Second, we separate total income into labor and non-labor income, and show significant income shifting from labor to non-labor income. Third, we provide suggestive evidence that income responses to the pension reform are from evasion rather than real responses. We emphasize the necessity of administrative capacity for developing countries to extend the pension system. Remarkably, sharing the employer payroll tax with employees may be a self-enforcement mechanism, similar to the value-added tax, of the payroll tax.     

Gender and labor retrenchment in Chinese state owned enterprises: Investigation using firm-level panel data

In the late 1990s, China's state-owned enterprises (SOEs) underwent dramatic labor retrenchment, drawing considerable attention to how women fared relative to men during the retrenchment process. However, almost all the existing studies on the subject rely on individual-level data. In this paper, we study the gender patterns of SOE labor retrenchment using a unique enterprise-level dataset for the period from 1995 to 2001. We find that disproportionately large share of discharge was borne by female workers and that female discharge rates were more sensitive to output growth than male discharge rates. Further, estimating dynamic labor demand equations by gender, we find that female employment was more sensitive to negative output shocks experienced by enterprises than male employment but less sensitive to positive output shocks. Further, we find that sensitivity of female employment to output was greater for reformed than non-reformed enterprises and for male-intensive than female-intensive sectors. These results provide new insights into the gender patterns of employment adjustment of Chinese SOEs to output shocks during the retrenchment period.     

Determinants of Self-employment in China： Evidence from Cross-regional Data

This paper presents and tests a series of sources of regional variations in self‐employment rate in China in the 2000s, and illustrates that the stage of economic development is a major explanation for the variations of self‐employment rate across regions over the past decade. The negative relationship between the stage of economic development and self‐employment rate identified in the paper indicates that China has entered the process of fast industrialization, and self‐employment is playing a diminishing role in economic growth and employment. We also find a substitution effect between self‐employment and private enterprises. While both are important components of China's private sector, private enterprises are becoming an increasingly important source of China's economic growth and employment. Furthermore, our findings also imply that when job opportunities are limited, self‐employment in China is likely a forced choice of disadvantaged people who are not qualified for wage jobs.     

我国民营经济的就业贡献及特点分析

民营经济逐渐成为我国劳动力就业的主要途径,民营经济的就业贡献与民营经济的就业特点是分不开的。本文从我国民营经济的就业特点出发,并从实证的角度,结合温州民营经济带动就业的案例,揭示和探讨了民营经济促进就业的机理和原因。     

国有企业、政府关系与“隐性雇主”定位拿捏

我国理论界对谁是国有企业劳动关系中的雇主问题存在不同的认识。在国有企业劳动关系中,政府具有隐性雇主角色。政府的隐性雇主角色源于国有企业特殊的产权结构。作为一个隐性雇主,政府融雇主身份与非雇主身份为一体,这会导致政府利益与公共利益之间的冲突,二者的冲突对国有企业劳动关系产生负面影响。合理地规制政府的隐性雇主角色是构建国有企业和谐劳动关系的重要举措。     

Government intervention in the capital allocation process: Excess employment as an IPO selection rule in China

We study the role of excessive employment as a selection criterion for initial public offerings (IPOs) in China. Using a large dataset of firms that are eligible for a public offering, we find that firms' that have more excess employment – that is, firms that hire too many people – are more likely to be selected for an IPO. This correlation is stronger for the private sector than for the state sector, suggesting that stock market capital is used to direct capital flows to private firms that comply with politicians' preferred labor practices. A third set of results corroborates the inefficiency of this selection rule by showing that firms with more excess labor underperform after the IPO. We conclude that a political system known for its interventionistic government policies uses its influence over the stock market to signal preferred employment practices.     

民营企业可持续发展对策研究——基于社会责任的视角

在经济全球化的新形势下,我国民营企业作为全球企业供应链的重要环节,已经不能将环境污染、产品品质、劳动权益等问题置之度外,承担社会责任已经成为我国民营企业可持续发展,融入全球经济的主要趋势和方法。因此,探讨我国民营企业社会责任问题,推动民营企业更好地履行社会责任,对实现民营企业的可持续发展无疑具有重要的现实意义。     

激励和限制相结合的企业弹性退休制度探讨

随着人口老龄化,提高退休年龄成为趋势。文章认为,延长退休年龄涉及到就业、企业成本和社会公平等诸多问题,因此,必须在保证就业和社会公平目标下延迟退休年龄。文章指出,建立以最低工作年限为法定退休条件的弹性退休制度,需要通过经济激励,引导民营企业参与,并以政策限制和避免国有企业滥用制度。     

转型期私营企业劳资关系与员工权益保障:浙江的证据

近年来,私营企业的劳资争议和劳资冲突有增多的趋势,但合作、互利是劳资关系的主流。就总体来看,这是一种新型的互利合作关系。在合作中谋求发展,在发展中实现各自的利益,这是劳资双方的共同选择。鉴于转型期劳动者所处的弱势地位,私营企业劳资关系的核心是如何保障劳动者的权益问题。因此,要确立劳资双方的主体地位,健全工会组织,促进集体谈判,加强政府对劳资关系的干预和协调,扩大劳资双方的利益共同点。     

“三方协调”机制:民营企业和谐劳动关系的框架构建

正确处理劳动关系,是构建"和谐社会"的重要内容。调整好民营企业劳动关系,妥善处理好这些问题和矛盾,在民营企业内部建立合作、共赢的劳动关系,成为理论界、企业界和政府关注的焦点。本文从民营企业劳动关系存在的问题出发,对劳动关系的运作机制进行分析,提出了构建民营企业和谐劳动关系的对策,即建立起包括政府、企业主组织、工会在内的"三方协调"机制。     

Flying with the Dragon: Estimating Developing Countries’ Gains from China's Imports

As a large trading nation, China competes with importing countries’ domestic and third‐country markets but also creates growth opportunities for exporters. Most studies on China trade shocks or “China shocks” focuse on the impacts of import competition on developed economies. The present paper complements research on China shocks by exploring the other side of the trade exposure to China – China as the largest importer, rather than as an exporter. We analyze the effects of export expansion into China on the local labor markets of the exporting developing countries for the years 1992 to 2018. Using detailed export and employment data, we estimate employment pattern variations in manufacturing industries with exports from other developing countries as instruments for export exposure. We find that the increase in trade exposure to China in the world economy has caused extensive job gains in manufacturing industries in developing countries that were exporters. On average, our estimations show that this trade exposure created approximately 1.5 million additional jobs from 1992 to 2018, which made an important contribution to manufacturing industries in developing countries. Our empirical analysis also shows that trade had stabilizing effects on employment in the countries in our sample generally.     

Unemployment and labor force participation in urban China

This paper serves to document and analyze the employment and the labor market changes in urban China since the late 1980s. High and sustained GDP growth rates in China have paradoxically been accompanied by increasing unemployment rates and decreasing labor force participation rates. Using national representative micro data, estimations from logit models show that age, education, communist-party membership and marital status are significantly associated with participation in the labor force and employment opportunities, and the impacts of education and party membership have increased over time. An extension of the Blinder–Oaxaca decomposition finds little of the observed male–female differentials attributable to differences in characteristics such as age or education but to coefficient effects, a possible reflection of discrimination.     

资本要素对不同区域经济发展的作用效果及比较分析

在区域经济发展过程中,资本要素通过影响劳动就业、技术进步、产业结构调整、资源配置等对经济发展产生不同作用。文章根据资本要素对经济发展的作用方式,借助于经济增长资本贡献率、科技进步资本弹性、劳动就业资本弹性等指标,测度了资本要素对我国各省市经济发展的作用效果,     

High benefits and low wages: Employees as monitor of management in SOEs

Employees do play a role in corporate governance as important stakeholders of modern enterprises. In the absence of financial and managerial labor markets in centrally planned economies (CPE), the owner of state enterprises (SOEs) has no effective mechanisms to discipline management. Therefore, the role of employees in corporate governance becomes much more important in SOEs than in the typical capitalist private firm. We posit that low wages and generous benefits in SOEs provide incentives for employees to monitor management. Other employment arrangements, especially lifetime job security and centralized wage scale, are also conducive to the monitoring of management by employees. A formal model shows that benefits tied to firm performance, designed properly, induce employees to monitor management. It also suggests that the existence of a market for managers tends to undermine this mechanism.     

国有航运企业船员流失率分析

随着经济水平的提高和国际贸易量的增加,我国海运业发展迅速,船员总数也成为世界第一。航运企业要做大做强,离不开对船员的培养。目前,我国船员总体上供给不足,并且由国有企业向外资或民营企业流动。这对承担着船员培养重任的国有企业造成了很大的损害。国企船员的大量流失既体现着劳动力市场发展的必然性,也反应了国企管理模式不当等多种原因。针对这一现象,本文从健全船员薪酬激励机制、改善就业环境、提高职业声望和政府立法四个角度提出了几点建议。