Spillovers and diversification potential of bank equity returns from developed and emerging America

We examine the network spillovers, portfolio allocation characteristics and diversification potential of bank returns from developed and emerging America. We draw our results by applying a directional spillover index, the tail-event driven network (TENET) and nonlinear portfolio optimization methods on bank returns. We find that the spillovers and connectedness among banks from emerging America are noticeably smaller than those among banks from developed America. The largest emerging market spillover transmitters and receivers are the banks from Brazil, followed by the banks from Chile. The largest developed market spillover transmitter is JP Morgan Chase. The connectedness among banks from developed America is dominated by the banks from the USA, relative to those from Canada. The total connectedness of the emerging market banks is more intensified than that of the banks from developed America due to the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic. The portfolio optimization shows that in developed America, the largest banks from the USA are the largest risk contributors to total portfolio risk, whereas the banks from Canada contribute the least risk. In emerging America, the banks from Brazil contribute the most risk to total portfolio risk while the banks from Peru and one bank from Colombia contribute the least risk. The portfolio of banks from emerging America offers greater diversification potential and lower total portfolio allocation risk.     

National versus supranational bank regulation: Gains and losses of joining a banking union

We ask how the structure of international banking affects the decision of a national regulator to join a banking union and to transfer regulatory powers to the supranational level. The focus is on bank supervision and bank resolution. A national regulator ignores possible gains or losses, which accrue to other jurisdictions if banks are internationally active. A supranational regulator takes these regulatory external effects into account. While supranational regulation improves total welfare, this is not necessarily the case for welfare in single countries. By analyzing the size and determinants of spillover effects we show how they constrain a country’s willingness to participate in a banking union. Our results may explain why some member states of the European Union currently hesitate to join the European Banking Union.     

Deposit structure,market discipline,and ownership type: Evidence from Indonesia

In this paper, we extend the literature on the discipline imposed by depositors on banks by disentangling the impact of macro risk and micro risk. We also take advantage of a unique dataset in which depositors are split into different categories of deposit size in different types of banks (bank ownership structure). We consider the Banking Stability Index, which is used by the Indonesia Deposit Insurance Corporation as a dashboard to monitor banking stability at the country level as well as individual stability measures such as the Z-score. Using monthly data from 2005 to 2013, our findings show that both macro and micro levels of risk are considered by depositors to discipline banks. Large uninsured depositors are more effective at disciplining banks, highlighting the credibility of the insurance system that is in place. Bank ownership type also matters in explaining the difference in market discipline by depositors.     

金融行业间的资产风险外溢影响

银行业、保险业和证券业因投资业务而构建起联系，并基于金融资产价格而具有了传染渠道。随着投资活动愈发频繁，金融行业中各行业内部的资产风险可能外溢至其他行业。本文首先从理论上分析金融行业资产风险通过投资资产外溢的过程，通过搭建资产抛售模型模拟资产风险的传染机制，从机构层面和行业层面分析资产风险的生成与传递。其次，基于金融机构实际数据的模拟分析结果显示，四大国有商业银行和中国平安具有外溢风险的能力，首先影响银行和保险公司，随后再扩散到整个金融行业，而证券业则相对较为独立。银行业的外溢影响最大，其次是保险业和证券业。但事实上很难发生足以对外部造成显著影响的损失事件。资产、投资比例、杠杆和监管要求水平在资产风险外溢的过程中具有一定的影响。     

The impact of non-performing loans on bank lending in Europe: An empirical analysis

In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, considerable attention has been paid to the accumulation of non-performing loans in the balance sheet of European banks and to its potential negative effects on bank lending to the real economy. Using a dataset composed of bank-specific information and country aggregates, we study the impact of the stock and the flow of non-performing loans on the lending activities of a sample of 75 European banks between 2014 and 2018. In general, higher rates of non-performing loans, together with other variables, are associated with lower growth rates of performing loans. This effect persists across several econometric specifications and is more significant for those banks exhibiting lower growth rates of performing loans. Similarly, our econometric analysis suggests that banks with higher decreases in their rate of non-performing loans tend to lend more to the real economy, an effect which is particularly intense at the right tail of the distribution. The findings of our paper can be useful for policymakers when addressing the resolution of non-performing loans in banks.     

Credit risk of subsidiaries of foreign banks in CEE countries: Impacts of the parent bank and home country economic environment

In this study, using dynamic panel data, we investigated the influences of the home country economic environment and parent bank condition on the credit risk of foreign banks in Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. We concentrated on the international transmission of credit risk through the internal capital market of multinational banks. Our theoretical assumptions follow studies that document how the parent bank condition and home country macroeconomic environment affect lending in subsidiaries in CEE countries. However, our results go one step further. We provide evidence that these relationships are reflected in subsidiaries’ credit risk in CEE countries. Our results suggest that the size and profitability of the parent bank have negative influences, while the liquidity and credit risk of the parent bank have positive influences on the subsidiaries’ credit risk. Moreover, the GDP growth in the parent bank’s country has a negative effect on the credit risk of the subsidiary, while the lending rate and liquidity in the parent bank country cause growth in the credit risk. These results indicate a new channel of international risk transfer from parent bank countries to host countries through foreign-owned banks.     

The default contagion of contingent convertible bonds in financial network

This paper investigates the impact of contingent convertible (CoCo) bonds on systemic risk using Eisenberg-Noe’s financial network method, in which the network is linked by debt relationships. As an efficient method for addressing the problem of “too big to fail,” CoCo bonds have received widespread attention, particularly because the trigger for CoCo bonds is a systemic risk event. Thus, the impact of CoCo bonds on systemic risk needs to be addressed. To solve this problem, we adopt default contagion and loss amplification due to network linkage to measure systemic risk, from which we can ascertain the potential impact on it of CoCo bonds. The results show that CoCo bonds enhance the spillover effect of the issuer’s default; meanwhile, sufficient CoCo bonds partly offset the impact of default contagion from other banks. Furthermore, CoCo bonds enhance the amplification effect of loss due to network linkage, but the amplification effect diminishes after the bankruptcy cost is considered. Finally, the numerical test provides some insight into how the issuance of writedown (WD) bonds influences commercial banks in China. Our study not only offers suggestions to the regulators of CoCo bonds but also contributes to related studies.     

Are universal banks bad for financial stability? Germany during the world financial crisis

This case study explores the contribution of universal banking to financial stability in Germany during the recent financial crisis. Germany is a prototype for universal banking and has suffered from a rather small number of banking crises in the past. We review the banking literature and analyze the major institutional and regulatory features of the German financial system to establish a nexus between universal banking and stability. We focus on the following questions. First, which banks failed and did they because they were universal or because of other reasons? Second, which types of distress beside outright bank failures resulted from the crisis and how did German universal banks dealt with them? We show that only few German banks failed and these banks did so not because they were universal banks but because they were publicly owned. Most banks instead contributed to reduce the impact of the recent crisis.     

股份制商业银行效率指标体系研究

商业银行运行效率是商业银行综合实力的体现。影响我国商业银行运行效率水平的因素主要包括盈利性状况、稳定性状况和公司治理状况。本文结合实证分析.提出一种新的我国股份制商业银行运行效率水平评价指标体系,结果表明各股份制商业银行效率差异较大;稳定性状况是目前决定股份制商业银行运行效率的重要因素,其次是赢利性与公司治理状况。此外,本文对股份制商业银行的未来发展提出了分析和建议。     

Understanding the consequences of diversification on financial stability

In this paper, we study the consequences of diversification on financial stability and social welfare using an agent based model that couples the real economy and a financial system. We validate the model against its ability to reproduce several stylized facts reported in real economies. We find that the risk of an isolated bank failure (i.e. idiosyncratic risk) is decreasing with diversification. In contrast, the probability of joint failures (i.e. systemic risk) is increasing with diversification which results in more downturns in the real sector. Additionally, we find that the system displays a “robust yet fragile” behaviour particularly for low diversification. Moreover, we study the impact of introducing preferential attachment into the lending relationships between banks and firms. Finally, we show that a regulatory policy that promotes bank–firm credit transactions that reduce similarity between banks can improve financial stability whilst permitting diversification.

     

Efficiency in Islamic and conventional banking: an international comparison

The paper investigates the efficiency of a sample of Islamic and conventional banks in 10 countries that operate Islamic banking for the period 1996–2002, using an output distance function approach. We obtain measures of efficiency after allowing for environmental influences such as country macroeconomic conditions, accessibility of banking services and bank type. While these factors are assumed to directly influence the shape of the technology, we assume that country dummies and bank size directly influence technical inefficiency. The parameter estimates highlight that during the sample period, Islamic banking appears to be associated with higher input usage. Furthermore, by allowing for bank size and international differences in the underlying inefficiency distributions, we are also able to demonstrate statistically significant differences in inefficiency related to these factors even after controlling for specific environmental characteristics and Islamic banking. Thus, for example, our results suggest that Sudan and Yemen have relatively higher inefficiency while Bahrain and Bangladesh have lower estimated inefficiency. Except for Sudan, where banks exhibits relatively strong returns to scale, most sample banks exhibit very slight returns to scale, although Islamic banks are found to have moderately higher returns to scale than conventional banks. While this suggests that Islamic banks may benefit from increased scale, we would emphasize that our results suggest that identifying and overcoming the factors that cause Islamic banks to have relatively low potential outputs for given input usage levels will be the key challenge for Islamic banking in the coming decades.     

Financial stability of Islamic banking and the global financial crisis: Evidence from the Gulf Cooperation Council

Using a sample of 76 banks from the Gulf Cooperation Council region, we use accounting- as well as market-based measures of financial stability to examine whether Islamic banks outperformed conventional banks in the time of financial shocks during the period 2000–2013. We find that the difference between the two banking types was initially not significant during the GFC. However, when the financial shock spread to the real economy during the later phases of the crisis, Islamic banks suffered a significantly higher level of financial instability than conventional banks. This result holds true for large banks but not for small Islamic banks. Small Islamic banks demonstrated a relatively better handling of the economic downturn than large Islamic banks, supporting the argument that Islamic banks are more stable when they operate at a small scale but lose this stability when they increase their scale of operations. Hence, while Islamic banks may have escaped the consequences of highly volatile financial instruments, they were not spared from a major shock in the real economic sectors.     

Banks’ capital,regulation and the financial crisis

This paper investigates whether regulatory capital requirements play an important role in determining banks’ equity capital. We estimate equity capital regressions using panel data of a sample of 560 banks for 2004–2010. Our results suggest that regulatory capital requirements are not first order determinants of banks’ capital structure. We document differences on the effect of most factors on banks’ share of equity according to the type of bank and to the region of the bank. Finally, we show that the determinants of this share are sensitive to the recent international financial crisis and to a set of regulatory country factors.     

Central bank disclosure as a macroprudential tool for financial stability

The Basel Capital Accord (pillar 3) states that disclosure of information (transparency) is essential to financial stability. This study analyzes, through inflation reports, the disclosure of information from the Central Bank of Brazil concerning the credit market. We consider credit risk and capital buffers as measures of financial stability in this analysis. Furthermore, in order to measure the perception of the monetary authority on the credit market, we built two indices based on the central bank’s communication on credit development. We performed a panel data analysis based on a sample of 125 banks for the period from June 1999 to September 2014 (7000 observations). The findings suggest that central bank communication regarding expectations concerning the credit market contributes to financial stability. Therefore, this kind of communication of central banks (about credit development) may constitute an important macroprudential tool to improve financial stability.     

商业银行构建虚拟股票期权激励模式初探

在中国加入WTO后,我国商业银行面临着前所未有的冲击。从当前情况看,激励机制不健全是是导致我国商业银行效率低下、活力不足的重要原因之一。美国股票期权的风靡,尤其是作为高层管理人员的激励方法,也许是过去十五年公司治理和公司激励制度最大的变革。但由于股票期权制度本身理论上的缺陷和我国银行业的实际问题,这一激励机制在我国商业银行中应用较为困难。为此,笔者提出了一种全新的激励制度,即将EVA(经济增加值)融入股票期权的虚拟股票期权激励体系。虚拟股票期权可以有效解决我国目前商业银行在激励制度中存在的问题。     

Does financial regulation affect the profit efficiency and risk of banks? Evidence from China's commercial banks

The goal of financial regulation is to enable banks to improve liquidity and solvency. Stricter regulation may be good for bank stability, but not for bank efficiency. This research aims to examine whether banks have met the CBRC's standard of financial regulations and explores how the previously implemented financial regulations have affected bank efficiency and risk in the past. In addition, we also explored the trade-off relationship between efficiency and risk. Unlike other studies, this study used bank assets as a classification standard from the financial risk and differential regulatory perspective.The empirical results indicate that the CBRC regulates the provision coverage ratio and cost-to-income ratio, which seems relevant to large banks and the loan-to-deposit ratio, capital adequacy ratio, and leverage ratio, which seems relevant to small banks. The CBRC regulates the current ratio to reduce the risks of banks. Based on our empirical results, the current ratio did not affect the risks and led to different efficiency results between large and small banks. In an environment with asymmetric information, a bank decision-making is unobservable. The characteristics of financial regulation provide market clues if a bank is operating at the most efficiency and risk condition.     

Why is it a man’s world,after all? Women on bank boards in India

Employing information on all publicly listed Indian banks covering the period 2003–2012, the study explores whether gender diversity impacts bank behaviour. The evidence suggests that the value addition to banks from the induction of women on their boards of directors is not compelling, although executive women directors enhance bank stability. Looking across ownership, the evidence suggests that gender diversity in state-owned banks enhances stability, but at the cost of lower profitability.     

非利息收入对我国商业银行业绩的影响——基于风险管理视角

近年来,我国商业银行收入结构出现了传统业务比重下降而非利息业务比重上升的趋势.利用我国14家上市商业银行2003年至2010年数据,对银行发展非利息业务的驱动因素进行分析,并对非利息业务和风险调整的银行收益率的相关关系进行检验,研究结果显示:积极开展非利息业务是我国商业银行的主动寻求新利润来源的行为,并不是迫于来自传统存贷业务的竞争压力;非利息业务提高了银行经过风险调整的盈利能力.     

Road investments and inventory reduction: Firm level evidence from China

This study presents new evidence on the causal impact of transport infrastructure on the economy. In China, inventory has declined over recent decades, while the country’s road infrastructure has expanded rapidly. Building on the existing literature, we introduce new approaches, including a quasi-experiment based on differential demand for distant suppliers, to identify the causal relationship between road investments and inventory decline. Examining a large panel data set of Chinese manufacturers from 1998 to 2007, we find one dollar of road spending saves around two cents of inventory costs. This effect is non-trivial but less than that in the United States in the 1970s. Moreover, our estimates also suggest spillover effect from road investments to firms in neighboring provinces.