债务期限结构对过度投资的影响研究——基于非金融类上市公司的数据

债务期限结构对公司治理绩效有着非常重要的影响,通过就948家A股非金融类上市公司债务期限结构对过度投资的影响进行实证分析后发现：从债务期限结构治理功能的静态视角来看,债务期限结构可以减少“内部人”的资产替代行为,抑制过度投资,进而有利于保护投资者的利益;股权结构同债务期限结构的‘‘组合机制”可以有效抑制企业的过度投资行为;随着市场化程度的深入,债务期限结构的治理绩效得到逐步优化;随着自由现金流水平的提高,公司过度投资行为会变得更加严重。     

CEO overconfidence and agency cost of debt: An empirical analysis of CEO turnover events

We develop a model and characterize the differences between the investment policies of a rational CEO and an overconfident CEO. In the presence of risky outstanding debt, we show that an overconfident CEO has the incentive to overinvest more than that of a rational CEO. However, this incentive is mitigated by the discipline imposed by outside investors when an overconfident CEO seeks external financing. In contrast, when the firm has sufficient internal funds to meet its investment needs and outstanding debt is relatively safer, the overconfident CEO has no necessity to seek external funds and the overinvestment incentive persists. We examine bondholders’ and stockholders’ reaction around CEO turnover announcements and find evidence consistent with the over investment hypothesis.     

资产流动性损失下财务危机重组研究

本文从资产结构的角度探讨资产流动性对财务危机重组的影响，建立了一个考虑资产流动性的财务危机模型。同时根据股东一经理人是否能与债权人协商及公司债务契约中有无优先偿债禁止条款，在不同情形下，分析了财务危机中各个请求权人因应策略和投资效率。本文研究表明，债权人会容忍某些程度的投资无效率以避免无谓的资产流动性损失；当债权人无法协商时，无论投资项目净现值为正或负，股东一经理人都将进行投资，使财务危机公司发生过度投资无效率问题；当债权人可协商时，虽然还是无法完全消除财务危机公司过度投资行为，但是可以改善上述问题。     

Local institutions,external finance and investment decisions of small businesses in Vietnam

This study investigates the impacts of local institutions, external finance, and their joint effects on firm investment in Vietnam. Investment decisions are classified into two categories: fixed asset investment and non-fixed asset investment. Analysing a set of 1.3 million firm-year observations of businesses in Vietnam (2006–2016), we find evidence that local institutions (both formal and informal) positively influence fixed asset investment but negatively affect non-fixed asset investment. Also, we find that informal loans are positively associated with both types of firm investment while bank loans are negatively associated with both types of firm investment. More importantly, we find that the quality of local institutions is able to moderate firms’ external financing behaviour, leading to increased investment values.     

Alpha-robust mean-variance reinsurance-investment strategy

Inspired by the α-maxmin expected utility, we propose a new class of mean-variance criterion, called α-maxmin mean-variance criterion, and apply it to the reinsurance-investment problem. Our model allows the insurer to have different levels of ambiguity aversion (rather than only consider the extremely ambiguity-averse attitude as in the literature). The insurer can purchase proportional reinsurance and also invest the surplus in a financial market consisting of a risk-free asset and a risky asset, whose dynamics is correlated with the insurance surplus. Closed-form equilibrium reinsurance-investment strategy is derived by solving the extended Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation. Our results show that the equilibrium reinsurance strategy is always more conservative if the insurer is more ambiguity-averse. When the dependence between insurance and financial risks are weak, the equilibrium investment strategy is also more conservative if the insurer is more ambiguity-averse. However, in order to diversify the portfolio, a more ambiguity-averse insurer may adopt a more aggressive investment strategy if the insurance market is very ambiguous. For an ambiguity-neutral insurer, the investment strategy is identical to the non-robust investment strategy.     

Bid-ask dynamic pricing in financial markets with transaction costs and liquidity risk

According to the classic no arbitrage theory of asset pricing, in a frictionless market a No Free Lunch dynamic price process associated with any essentially bounded asset is a martingale under an equivalent probability measure. However, real financial markets are not frictionless. We introduce an axiomatic approach of Time Consistent Pricing Procedure (TCPP), in a model free setting, to assign to every financial position a dynamic ask (resp. bid) price process. Taking into account both transaction costs and liquidity risk this leads to the convexity (resp. concavity) of the ask (resp. bid) price. We prove that the No Free Lunch condition for a TCPP is equivalent to the existence of an equivalent probability measure R that transforms a process between the bid price process and the ask price process of every financial instrument into a martingale. Furthermore we prove that the ask (resp. bid) price process associated with every financial instrument is then a R super-martingale (resp. R sub-martingale) which has a càdlàg version.     

Creditor rights,financial health,and corporate investment efficiency

This paper analyzes the influence of creditor rights on investment efficiency and how firms’ financial health shapes this influence. Using time-series changes within a country and cross-country variations in creditor rights, I find that stronger protection of creditors improves investment efficiency in healthy firms but worsens it in distressed firms. The impact on investment efficiency operates more through changes in overinvestment than in underinvestment. Alternative proxies for creditor rights control for both contractual and enforcement rights. The results are robust to alternative model specifications and to controls for omitted variables.     

Contingent capital,capital structure and investment

We examine the interaction between investment and financing policies in a dynamic model for a firm with existing assets-in-place and a growth option, of which investment cost is financed with equity and contingent convertible bonds (CoCos). We attempt to clarify how CoCos impact on investment timing, capital structure and inefficiencies arising from debt overhang and asset substitution. We show that there is a conversion ratio (the fraction of equity allocated to CoCo holders upon conversion) to eliminate the inefficiencies. Our conclusions predict that debt leverage decreases with investment option payoff factor and the average appreciation rate of the cash flow. In contrast to traditional corporate finance theory saying that a firm's value decreases globally with business risk, our model indicates that it might first decrease and then increase with asset volatility.     

Fluctuating uncertainty and flexibility value

A simple model of recurrent fluctuating uncertainty with two types of investment assets, commitment and flexible, where fluctuating uncertainty is defined as changes between high and low confidence regimes, is constructed. By assuming risk neutrality, I find analytically a formula for flexibility value that is defined as the difference between the expected return to the commitment asset and the expected return to the flexible asset. This flexibility value is positive in the low confidence regime because of a positive attribute of the flexibility asset that is the option to utilize new information later. The relation between flexibility value and other parameters of the model is also considered. Flexibility value increases as the information an individual obtains in the high confidence regime increases or the discounting factor of the individual increases. Finally, flexibility value can increase even if, ceteris paribus, the return to the commitment asset increases.     

Demographics, dividend clienteles and the dividend premium

The catering theory of dividends proposed that corporate dividend policy is driven by prevailing investor demand for dividend payers, and that managers cater to investors by paying dividends when the dividend premium is high. While earlier research found that the dividend premium is not driven by traditional clienteles derived from market imperfections such as taxes, transaction costs, or institutional investment constraints, we find empirical evidence that demographic clienteles are an important source of the time-varying demand for dividend payers. In particular, we find that, as consistent with the behavioural life-cycle theory and the marginal opinion theory of stock price, the dividend premium is positively driven by demographic clientele variation represented by changes in the proportion of the older population. Our results are robust when controlled for the factors of investor sentiment, signalling, agency costs, tax clienteles, time trend, business cycle fluctuations and varying sample periods.     

Overinvestment,inflation uncertainty,and managerial overconfidence: Firm level analysis of Chinese corporations

We study corporate investment by considering both external economic factor and managerial behavior, in particular the dynamic interaction between inflation uncertainty and managerial overconfidence by employing a sample of Chinese companies. The empirical findings demonstrate that lower inflation uncertainty increases over-investment, and managerial overconfidence exacerbates such effect. Further analysis shows that over-investment in state-owned enterprises (SOEs) is mainly driven by managerial overconfidence, and the negative association between inflation uncertainty and overinvestment is due to managerial overconfidence. The effect of managerial overconfidence is mute in non-state-owned enterprises (non-SOEs). In addition, we find asymmetric impact of inflation uncertainty on corporate over-investment during different economic cycles.     

Market selection of constant proportions investment strategies in continuous time

This paper studies the wealth dynamics of investors holding self-financing portfolios in a continuous-time model of a financial market. Asset prices are endogenously determined by market clearing. We derive results on the asymptotic dynamics of the wealth distribution and asset prices for constant proportions investment strategies. This study is the first step towards a theory of continuous-time asset pricing that combines concepts from mathematical finance and economics by drawing on evolutionary ideas.     

Pension Funding Constraints and Corporate Expenditures*

This paper examines the impact of a company's pension contributions (PCs) on its dividend and investment policies. The effects of shocks to cash flows on these corporate expenditures are identified by changes to pension funding regulations. Using a sample of DB pension schemes in FTSE350 UK‐listed firms we find a strong negative relation between PCs and corporate dividends even after controlling for the correlation between funding status and unobserved investment opportunities. We find that the more stringent funding requirements under the Pensions Act 2004 had a more pronounced effect on both dividend and investment sensitivities to PCs.     

The joint decision to manage earnings through discretionary accruals and asset sales around insider trading: Taiwan evidence

This study assesses the joint decision of multiple earnings–management tools around insider trading. The Taiwanese evidence indicates significantly higher magnitudes of both discretionary accruals and asset sales before insider selling. In addition, to investigate the endogenous relationship between discretionary accruals and asset sales, this study develops a set of simultaneous equations and includes the inverse Mill’s ratio as a regressor to account for firms that choose not to use asset sales. The results indicate a marginal complementary correlation between discretionary accruals and asset sales before insider selling. Further tests find this complementary correlation becomes stronger when accompanying abnormal insider selling. The findings support the view that insiders consider both tools jointly and adjust them as complements to meet their directional earnings management objective.     

Private debt, unused credit lines, and seasoned equity offerings

We study a sample of SEOs to examine the impact of private debt and unused credit lines on SEO underpricing and long-run stock and operating performance. We do not find significant effects of private debt financing on SEO underpricing and long-run stock underperformance. However, firms with more bank debt and unused lines of credit exhibit significantly better pre-issue operating performance. Changes in operating performance from the pre-issue year to the post-issue period are negatively related to the size of unused credit lines. Capital spending decreases with the size of unused credit lines in the year prior to SEOs, but increases following SEOs. Our overall evidence suggests that the post-issue operating performance we observed may be a result of overinvestment, which is enhanced by unused credit lines.     

上市公司与财务公司关联交易对投资效率影响研究

以2008—2014年我国上市公司与财务公司关联交易非平衡面板数据,实证检验了上市公司与财务公司主要类型关联交易对上市公司投资效率的影响。研究发现,上市公司与财务公司各主要类型关联交易总体上能够提升上市公司投资效率,但存在一定的差异,具体表现为：关联交易总额和关联资金交易金额越大越加剧了投资不足,但抑制了过度投资;关联劳务交易能够不显著缓解投资不足和抑制过度投资,而关联担保交易则不显著缓解投资不足和加剧过度投资。此外,上市公司面临的融资约束在上市公司与财务公司关联交易对投资效率影响中存在调节作用。     

Fractal statistical measure and portfolio model optimization under power-law distribution

An effective portfolio selection model is constructed on the premise of measuring accurately the risk and return on assets. According to the reality that the tail of returns on assets obey power-law distribution, this paper firstly builds two fractal statistical measures, fractal expectation and fractal variance, to measure the asset returns and risks, inspired by the method of measuring curve length in the fractal theory. Then, by incorporating the fractal statistical measure into the return-risk criterion, a portfolio selection model based on fractal statistical measure is established, namely the fractal portfolio selection model, and the closed-form solution of the model is given. Finally, through empirical analysis we find that the fractal portfolio selection model is effective and can improve investment performance.     

Do actively managed mutual funds exploit stock market mispricing?

Constructing a proxy for mispricing with 15 well-known stock market anomalies, we examine whether actively managed mutual funds exploit mispricing. We find that, in the aggregate, mutual funds overweight overvalued stocks and underweight undervalued stocks relative to a passive benchmark, and this tendency is explained by the ill-motivated trades of agency-prone fund managers. In addition, we find that mutual funds with the highest weights in undervalued stocks outperform those with the highest weights in overvalued stocks by an annualized three-factor alpha of 2.12% (t = 2.38), implying that slanting portfolios based on our proxy helps mutual funds improve performance.     

内部控制、关系型交易与非效率投资

基于 2007年至2011年中国上市公司的经验数据,探讨企业关系型交易对管理层机会主义行为的影响。实证结果表明：供应商或客户关系型交易比例越高,投资效率越低,这会加剧投资过度或投资不足程度,说明供应商或客户关系型交易在带来关系租金的同时也会带来一系列负面效应;上市公司的内部控制质量越好,越有助于抑制关系型交易带来的非效率投资,说明内部控制作为一种可置信承诺,能够有效抑制机会主义行为、控制和降低风险,提高信息披露的可信度,缓解信息不对称,从而抑制关系交易引发的投资不足或投资过度行为。     

Should managers refrain from and investors ignore noisy dividend surprises? Some experimental evidence

A series of experiments is conducted in an asset market that contains a high productivity firm and a low productivity firm. Managers' compensation is a positive function of the market determined value of the firm. Investment decisions are made endogenously and are private information to the managers. The results of the experiments indicate that managers signal earning's information via noisy dividend announcements that result in suboptimal investment decisions. A manager's overinvestment in the signal does not generate significant increases in managerial compensation. The noisy signal does not pay off and in fact would result in a tendency for the market to underpredict earnings. This implies that even in the presence of suboptimal contracts between the managers and the firms, managers are not overcompensated. Thus, in these experiments the signal does not “solve” the dividend puzzle.