Impacts of new universities on hosting cities and the implications for Kimberley,Northern Cape,South Africa

This research investigated the impact of the establishment of a new university on hosting cities by reviewing the literature on such impacts. The aim of the article is to establish the likely impact of a new university (Sol Plaatjie University) to be established in the city of Kimberley during 2014. The study found that generally a university could impact its hosting city in terms of its local economy, employment, human capital, social character and real-estate market. Given the current characteristics and demographic profile of Kimberley, it is likely that positive impacts of a new university in Kimberley would include increased spending capacity in the local economy and short-term employment gains during construction of the university infrastructure. The proposed university could, however, exacerbate the existing pressure on the rental market in Kimberley and encourage the out-migration of specific skilled professionals. The research concludes with a number of steps to be taken by a hosting city that could contribute to strengthening a university's role as an anchor for urban development.     

低碳经济下上海市能源需求暨碳排放情景分析

基于2000—2010年上海市能源消耗和碳排放数据,分析了上海市能源消费现状,并根据IPCC碳排放系数计算了上海市能源消费及其导致的碳排放总量以及各产业的排放情况。采用情景分析方法,预测了2015年和2020年上海市分别在基准情景和低碳情景之下的能源消费暨碳排放情况,预测结果显示,基准情景之下上海市2015年和2020年的能源消费分别为14031.7742和16133.6646万吨、二氧化碳排放达到3.19和3.88亿吨;低碳情景下上海市2015年和2020年的能源消费分别为10834.2021和10448.7935万吨,二氧化碳排放为2.44和2.58亿吨。     

How can China's power sector reform reduce carbon emissions? A long-term competition perspective

Challenges coexist with opportunities for achieving carbon neutrality through power sector reform. Based on the ongoing reform in China and generator-level data in 2019, we identify three channels through which the reform could affect carbon emissions. We analyze the theoretical mechanisms under a long-term average cost competition framework, evaluate the emission reduction potentials of the three channels, explore the obstacles in achieving these potentials, and propose corresponding solutions. We find the following: (1) By reshaping the generation competition between high-efficiency and low-efficiency coal-fired generators, the reform has the potential to reduce carbon emissions by 205.4 million tons. However, considering the high financial costs of high-efficiency generators, realizing the full potential is difficult. (2) Administrative promotion of renewable energy could reduce carbon emissions by 311 million tons, but with large implicit expenses, which makes the promotion unsustainable. (3) The price dividend induced by the reform could increase carbon emissions by 98.1 million tons. To achieve emission reduction potentials in the first two channels and offset the rebound effect in the third channel, we propose explicitly pricing carbon. Without other supporting measures, a carbon price of over 400 Chinese yuan per ton of carbon dioxide is essential for the reform to eliminate barriers to its implementation.     

中国工业碳排放与经济增长的关系研究——基于STIRPAT模型

文章基于改进的STIRPAT模型,以1995-2010年按碳排放特征分组的中国工业面板数据为样本,实证研究了我国工业碳排放与经济增长关系及其主要影响因素。研究结果表明:中国碳排放与经济增长关系具有U型曲线特征,拐点处的经济产出高排放强度行业低于低排放强度行业。资本存量对工业碳排放的正向影响作用大于劳动力总量,科研投入有利于高排放强度行业减排,化石能源结构调整不能促进工业减排。     

山东省工业结构演变的水环境效应研究

文章采用LMDI分解方法研究了1991-2011年山东省工业结构演变对水环境污染物排放的影响,参照世界银行认定的水污染密集型产业选取了山东省水污染密集型产业,在此基础上探讨了污染密集型产业结构变动的水环境效应。得出以下结论:经济总量增长引起了水环境污染物排放量的增加,技术效率的提高则抑制了污染物排放量的增加,但技术效率的减排效应在不断减弱,因此,工业结构的调整是污染物减排的重要内容;污染密集型产业的增加值占工业增加值的比重为50%左右,但其污染物排放量却占到整个工业污染物排放量的85%以上;污染密集型产业比重上升或下降一个百分点,对应的工业废水、COD、石油类、挥发酚和氰化物排放量将上升或下降0.8亿t、17.1万t、61.0t、80.2t和5.9t。研究表明,未来工业结构的调整,尤其是污染密集型产业的调整将有助于山东省水环境的治理与优化。     

广州市低碳经济发展路径探析

低碳经济是应对气候变化和社会可持续发展的重要选择,广州市作为华南地区重要的中心城市,发展低碳经济具有重大的现实意义。本文通过分析广州市的经济增长、能源消费碳排放总量和碳排放强度以及各产业的碳排放数据,探讨出广州市发展低碳经济应采取节能降耗、优化产业结构、植树造林和宣传碳减排理念等途径。     

出口产品国内CO2排放与行业国内总排放的比较

文章在分析相关研究文献的基础上,改进投入产出理论模型表达式,详细计算各种能源的CO2排放系数和国内直接碳排放强度矩阵,以此作为工具模型计算和比较中国29个行业的国内CO2排放量和这些行业部门出口产品在国内的排放量,最后提出以行业部门领域碳排放深度测算为基础的减排策略.     

低碳经济背景下我国产业结构调整对策研究

十二五时期,我国产业结构调整,既保证经济的平稳发展,又能控制温室气体减排,具有非常重要的现实意义。本文从我国产业及内部结构、产业能源消费结构、产业节能率和产业的碳排放量等方面进行了分析,提出了在低碳经济背景下产业结构调整对策。     

中国旅游交通碳排放强度的时空演变特征

通过“自上而下”的方法,以2012—2020年我国省级面板数据为研究单元测算各省旅游交通碳强度。在此基础上,使用空间自相关理论和时间序列回归分析对我国旅游交通碳排放强度的时空演变特征进行研究。结果表明,研究期内,我国旅游产业经历了2012—2017年蓄势发展、2018—2019年快速发展和之后的新冠肺炎疫情影响3个阶段。其中,旅游产业GDP表现出较好的全局空间自相关性,而旅游交通碳强度的全局莫兰指数显著性较低,但逐步增加,旅游交通碳强度的区域空间聚集对华南地区旅游产业的低碳高效发展起到了较好的影响作用。通过对不同发展阶段影响旅游交通碳强度“低-高”和“高-高”聚集的影响因素进行时间序列回归分析。结果显示：城镇化水平和产业结构是影响聚集区旅游交通碳强度的最重要因素,而随着国内城镇化率不断提升,其降碳边际效应逐步显现;相比之下,产业结构优化正成为降低旅游交通碳强度的重要影响因素,从开始阶段增加碳排放的4.977变为降低碳排放的-2.115,对降低碳排放强度具有重要意义;此外,技术进步对降低旅游交通碳排强度同样具有有益的影响。     

基于电解水制氢和生物质电厂的电与甲醇联产系统

随着各国二氧化碳排放,温室气体猛增,中国提出碳达峰和碳中和目标。新能源的利用是解决环境和能源问题、降低碳排放的最有效的方法。氢能是未来能源发展的重要方向。为此,提出一种基于电解水制氢和生物质电厂的电与甲醇联产系统,通过电解水技术制取氢气和氧气,氧气用于生物质富氧燃烧电厂发电,而电厂产生的富含二氧化碳的尾气用于与氢气合成甲醇。使用Aspen对该系统进行仿真计算的结果显示,该系统年产甲醇26674 t,综合能量效率可达51.98%,氢到甲醇的转化效率为59.84%,动态回收周期为3.47年。此系统在生产电力及甲醇的同时,实现了碳的近零排放,可为中国的氢能利用技术的发展提供一定的参考。     

苏州建设低碳城市的路径研究

苏州市作为长三角经济发达城市,在经济发展的同时,经济发展与资源环境的矛盾日趋尖锐.本文在分析苏州建设低碳城市所具有的优势和面临的障碍的基础上,提出了从能源、产业结构、低碳建筑和交通、排污权交易制度五个方面建设低碳城市的对策.     

中国废纸回收的碳减排效应

基于生命周期分析(LCA)法对比考察中国造纸行业在林木生产、工厂生产、运输、废弃物处理各阶段的CO2排放量。研究发现，2009—2021年中国使用废纸造纸造成的碳排将小于采用原木纤维进行生产造成的碳排量，即增大国内废纸回收将有助于中国降低CO2排放量。其中，约69%的碳减排效应均来自运输阶段，20%源于工厂生产阶段。通过分品类对比发现，箱纸板、瓦楞原纸和未涂布印刷书写纸的碳减排效应最为明显，2021年分别减少54 758、51 006、30 720万tCO2排放量。     

江苏省能源消费趋势预测及其碳排放研究

能源是江苏未来经济健康发展的物质基础,科学预测江苏未来的能源消费对于能源资源严重缺乏的江苏而言具有举足轻重的意义。文章借助趋势外推模型和ARMA模型相结合,对江苏2014~2023年的能源消费进行了预测,结果表明江苏省2020年能源消费量大约为4.5亿吨标煤;利用马尔科夫预测模型对江苏未来能源消费结构进行了预测,并在此基础上预测了江苏2014~2023年的碳排放量,结果表明,未来江苏的碳排放量呈明显上升趋势,至2020年左右,其碳排放量约为3.7亿吨,这意味着江苏将面临严峻的减排形势。因此江苏未来必须大力调整能源消费结构,使能源结构朝着清洁化、优质化方向发展,为江苏社会经济的健康发展奠定基础。     

Do CO2 emissions impact energy use? An assessment of China evidence from 1953 to 2017

Bidirectional causality between energy use and carbon emissions has widely been explored, but the results in the existing research are still controversial. Focusing on China, we reveal the bidirectional causality between energy use and carbon emissions, and then take carbon emissions as a factor influencing energy use into decomposition analysis by the Logarithmic Mean Index (LMDI) approach. The study span 1953–2017 is divided into two main developing stages based on multiple breakpoint tests, stage one: 1953–2001, before entering World Trade Organization (WTO); and stage two: 2001–2017, after entering WTO. The results show that emission effect and per capita emission effect indeed promoted energy use and even surpassed output effect at the beginning of stage two (2001–2005). The changes in energy use followed those in output effect at stage one, emission effect and per capita emission effect at the beginning of stage two, and energy intensity effect at the latter period of stage two. It indicates that energy efficiency has gradually been becoming a dominate role in energy use changes. The impact of energy mix effect was comparatively small.     

外商直接投资与中国制造业的污染排放:基于行业投入-产出的分析

本文基于环境投入-产出模型,选取我国制造业15部门为研究对象,利用中国2002年和2005年可比价投入产出表以及3种环境污染物排放数据,全面衡量FDI流入我国制造业对3种污染物排放的直接和间接影响。研究结果发现:(1)我国制造业单位产出3种污染物的排放数量逐年降低;(2)FDI主要流入制造业中相对清洁的部门;(3)FDI大量流入的清洁部门通过产业关联导致其他制造业部门污染物排放增加,"污染避难所"假说在中国并不成立的论断存在一定局限性,需要重新修订;(4)从产业投入产出的角度来看,制造业中相对污染密集的行业其污染排放受到其他行业的需求拉动影响较大,而相对清洁行业对其他行业污染排放的拉动较强。     

A Bite of China: Food consumption and carbon emission from 1992 to 2007

In conjunction with the rapid rise in household food expenditures per capita, China's food consumption has increased greatly. At the same time, dietary patterns have changed dramatically, as between 1992 and 2007 China underwent a transition to a more animal-based westernized diet. This rise in food consumption and shift in dietary structure may contribute substantially to climate change. In this paper, an input-output model is used to explore the food-related carbon emissions of Chinese urban households in 1992 and 2007. The results indicate that the physical volume of and economic expenditures on food consumption have increased by 20.7% and 35.9%, respectively. However, food-related carbon emissions per capita in 2007 had decreased nearly 21% compared to emissions in 1992. Based on parametric estimates of environmental Engel Curves and the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition, the variation in household income may lead to a hypothetical carbon emissions increase of 1.694 tons. However, the improvement in energy use efficiency had offset the impact from income growth and dietary transition and led to the drop in China's food-related carbon emissions from 1992 to 2007.     

International trade,FDI (foreign direct investment) and embodied CO2 emissions: A case study of Chinas industrial sectors

This paper calculates CO₂ emissions embodied in China's international trade using an input–output analysis, for the period 2000–2010. Based on industrial panel data, the two-step GMM estimation is used to test the impacts of FDI, trade openness, exports, imports and per capita income on CO₂ emissions. The results suggest that: (1) China's growing trade surplus is one of the important reasons for the rapidly rising CO₂ emissions; (2) large FDI inflows further aggravate China's CO₂ emissions; and (3) the industrial sector's per capita income and CO₂ emission relationship show inverted-U environmental Kuznets curve. Therefore, in order to achieve environmentally sustainable development of the economy, China should make efforts to transform its trade growth mode, adjust foreign investment structure, strengthen energy efficiency and develop a low-carbon economy.     

中国工业部门出口贸易、国内CO_2排放与影响因素——基于结构分解的跨期对比分析

文章在总结相关研究文献的基础上,改进投入产出模型,消除中间投入中进口产品国外CO2排放的影响,计算国内直接碳排放强度矩阵;然后根据现有投入产出表,测算并比较1987年、1997年和2007年中国工业部门出口贸易的国内CO2排放总量和排放强度;并利用两极分解法对1987～1997年和1997～2007年两个跨期中国工业部门出口贸易的国内CO2排放情况进行结构分解,对比分析效率效应、生产结构效应、出口结构效应和规模效应对CO2排放的影响;最后立足于行业部门碳排放提出相关政策建议。     

Regional variation of energy-related industrial CO2 emissions mitigation in China

This paper analyzes the reasons for regional variations in industrial CO₂ emissions mitigation. First, regional industrial CO₂ emissions during the “11th Five-Year Plan” period are calculated based on the presented method. Then a two-level perfect decomposition method, LMDI, is used to find the nature of the factors that influence the changes in energy-related industrial CO₂ emissions in nine economic regions in China. The changes of industrial CO₂ emissions are decomposed into energy emission factor effect, energy structure effect, energy intensity effect, industrial structure effect and economic output effect. As the results suggest, rapid growth of industry is the most important factor responsible for the increase in CO₂ emissions. The adjustment of both industrial structure and energy structure contributes to the increase of CO₂ emissions slightly. Energy consumption per unit GDP is the most important measure of CO₂ emissions and the energy emission factor by itself also makes a weeny contribution to CO₂ reduction as a result of electricity generation efficiency enhancement.     

基于扩展的STIRPAT模型的新疆碳排放量的影响因素研究

基于扩展的STIRPAT模型,采用新疆1990~2010年统计数据,对新疆碳排放量的主要影响因素进行了实证研究。研究表明,当新疆人均GDP、能源强度、单位能耗碳排放量、人口规模每提高1%时,碳排放总量增长率将分别增长1.938%、1.233%、0.346%、0.329%。当新疆人均GDP、能源强度、单位能耗碳排放量每提高1%时,人均碳排放量增长率将分别增长2.742%、1.713%、0.477%。