Asset Price Bubbles: Existence,Persistence and Migration

Econometric tests are performed for the detection and migration of asset‐price bubbles in the housing, currency and stock markets of seven countries. This set of countries includes both developed and emerging economies that have good historical data on housing prices. Our empirical results suggest that this type of exuberant behaviour in prices occurs more frequently in the housing market than in the currency and stock markets. Additionally, we find significant evidence of bubble migration across markets within some of the studied countries.     

COVID-19 and the intentions to migrate from developing countries: Evidence from online search activities in Southeast Asia

COVID-19 has had an enormous effect on labor markets globally. Economic restrictions, notably strict border controls and lockdowns, have led many workers to lose their jobs and forced many migrants to return to their homes or change their migration plans. While adverse effects on labor mobility are expected, variations in the prevalence of COVID-19 and governmental responses to the pandemic across countries are likely to influence workers’ intentions to migrate in different ways. To understand the effects of pandemics on the international labor supply, we explore the impact of COVID-19 and the various economic restriction policies on job search behavior by considering cases from Southeast Asian countries using the difference-in-differences (DID) approach with data from Google Trends Index (GTI). We find that the search volume of queries related to the labor market dramatically increased over time following the outbreak of COVID-19. However, we do not observe any positive impact on the search volume related to emigration, regardless of the infection control measures in the host countries. Our results imply that the job insecurity increases after the imposition of lockdown in the respective countries. On the other hand, the expectation to migrate outside of the country, which requires preparation time and incurs high costs, does not seem to have increased in developing countries.     

Asymmetric Fluctuating Behavior of China's Housing Prices

The present study explains the reasons for the imbalanced development of the Chinese housing market. Using the quantile autoregression unit‐root test, we examine housing prices in China's five major cities. The results show that the rising and falling of housing prices in these cities exhibits asymmetric reversion. When housing prices fall, market capital is highly sensitive to housing prices, and housing prices resist the pressure to fall further. However, when housing prices rise, the housing market becomes imbalanced, with housing prices tending to overreact in an upturn. The results of this study indicate that when housing prices rise irrationally, the government should intervene in the housing market promptly to prevent housing bubbles.     

Epidemic and Economic Consequences of Voluntary and Request-based Lockdowns in Japan

I examine the epidemiological and economic effects of two types of lockdowns during the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan: a voluntary lockdown by which people voluntarily stayed at home in response to the risk of infection, and a request-based lockdown by which the government requested people to stay at home without legal enforcements. I use empirical evidence on these two types of lockdowns to extend an epidemiological and economic model: the SIR-Macro model. I calibrate this extended model to Japanese data and conduct some numerical experiments. The results show that the interaction of these two types of lockdowns plays an important role in the low proportion of infectious individuals and the large decrease in consumption in Japan.     

海南旅游客源市场的现状及发展对策

当前海南旅游接待总人数和旅游总收入在国内仍处于落后水平,入境游客数量相对较少,且客源覆盖面窄,增长十分缓慢。尽管国外客源市场的扩展空间极为有限,但国内高端客源潜力巨大,将成为海南高端客源市场的主体。要促进客源市场发展,就要以培育国内高端客源市场为核心,努力引领国内高端休闲度假和豪华消费潮流;用活用好国家各项支持政策,使广大游客切实从海南旅游特殊政策中受益;加强海南特色文化建设,树立特色鲜明的文化形象;充分发掘各地优势旅游资源,推进地方旅游品牌创建工程;以及创新旅游产品开发理念,提高休闲度假旅游产品质量等。     

苏南地区乡村旅游客源市场分析与营销策略

通过市场调研,分析了苏南地区乡村旅游客源市场结构特征、乡村旅游者出游行为特征和乡村旅游产品、产品线等。研究结果表明,苏南地区乡村旅游客源市场以近距离为主,本地居民和上海、南京等大城市居民构成一级客源市场,社会中上层群体、家庭、城市学生和城市离退休人员是苏南地区乡村旅游4类重点细分市场,对此提出相应的营销组合策略、品牌策略、产品促销与创新等策略。     

二手房交易中中介机构的信息屏障及其破解对策

目前房地产中介公司已成为二手房交易的主要渠道,许多中介公司利用买卖主体的信息不对称,有意制造信息屏障,获取额外收益。了解中介公司设置信息屏障的方式方法十分必要,它可以帮助买卖主体有效规避交易风险,减少不必要的经济损失。     

Urbanization,inequality and property prices: Equilibrium pricing and transaction in the Chinese housing market

The particularly overheated Chinese housing market, with its soaring property prices, has attracted a large amount of research. We point out three of its striking empirical features, which current literature leaves unexplored: co-existence of steady growth of real transaction price and excess supply, accelerations in price-to-income ratio, and significantly strong positive correlation between real transaction prices and income inequality. A search-equilibrium model is built to explain these facts. Heterogeneous buyers and homogeneous sellers randomly search for partners to trade in a frictional property market. The search equilibrium of the property market is either a high-price-and-low-transaction elitist matching equilibrium, or a low-price-and-high-transaction pooled matching equilibrium. The terms of trade determine which equilibrium arises. Empirical observations argue for the development of China's property market through evolution from a pooled matching equilibrium to an elitist matching equilibrium. We set out to show that the market equilibrium is always inefficient, due to crowding out externalities and market incompleteness. Policy experiments support redistributive tax, as a means to improve social welfare.     

Regional Coronavirus Hotspots During the COVID-19 Outbreak in the Netherlands

De Economist - We explore the impact of COVID-19 hotspots and regional lockdowns on the Dutch labour market during the outbreak of COVID-19. Using weekly administrative panel microdata for 50 per...     

The impact of COVID-19 on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs): Evidence from two-wave phone surveys in China

This paper examines the short-term and mid-term impact of COVID-19 restrictions on SMEs, based on two waves of phone interviews with a previously surveyed large SME sample in China. The outbreak of COVID-19 and the resultant lockdowns took a heavy toll on SMEs. Afflicted by problems of logistics blocks, labor shortages, and drops in demand, 80% of SMEs were temporarily closed at the time of the first wave of interviews in February 2020. After reining in COVID-19, authorities largely eased lockdown restrictions in April. Consequently, most SMEs had reopened by the time of the second round of surveys in May. However, many firms, particularly export firms, were running at partial capacity, primarily due to inadequate demand. Moreover, around 19% of incorporated enterprises and 25% of self-employed businesses had permanently closed between the two waves of surveys.     

Fundamentals and the volatility of real estate prices in China: A sequential modelling strategy

In a similar way to the stock market, the housing market in China has often been portrayed as highly speculative, giving rise to “bubble” concerns. Over the last decade, residential prices increased every year on average by double digits in Beijing or Shanghai. However many observers and researchers argue that fundamentals of the housing sector, both sector-specific and macroeconomic, may have been the driving force behind housing price volatility. While existing empirical work exclusively relies on the government housing prices which may suffer from the well-documented downward bias, this paper uses original high frequency unit price as well as transaction series for the residential resale housing markets of Beijing and Shanghai between January 2005 and December 2010 to test alternative hypotheses about housing prices volatility.We propose a sequential strategy in five steps integrating several techniques previously developed in a piecemeal and scattered way. First, we construct daily hedonic prices. Second, in order to search for the possible presence of bubbles on such high-frequency data, we propose using recently developed tests of an explosive root as an alternative to the unit root hypothesis. The third step is generated by the necessity of handling microstructure noise present at a daily frequency, thus filtering the raw data to extract a random walk component. The fourth step extracts a slowly changing monthly volatility component from the filtered daily hedonic real estate data. Finally, in so far as the presence of bubbles does not seem to characterize the residential housing market in major Chinese cities, such as Beijing and Shanghai, in a fifth step we show that fundamentals are able to explain slowly changing volatility, as well as transaction volumes in these first‐tier cities.     

对上海房价居高不下的理性思考

房价具有一定的区域性特征,房价的居高不下必然会给区域经济健康持续发展带来许多隐患。必须找准影响区域房价的深层原因才能制定有效的调控措施平抑房价。影响房价的深层原因既有内部的也有外部的,地价及建筑安装成本是内部原因;经济因素、政策因素和价格预期是重要的外部因     

重庆红色旅游市场调查与建议

旅游产品的开发必须以市场为导向。只有把握了旅游市场的需求和变化,才能开发出更有特色的旅游产品。红色旅游作为一种把旅游和爱国主义教育结合起来的新型旅游产品,要想保持健康持续的发展,必须对其市场进行深入的调查研究。本文通过问卷调查和询问采访的方式对重庆红岩沿线的旅游市场进行了调查,在对144份问卷进行分析的基础上,通过研究旅游者行为特征和旅游市场消费特征以及游客对重庆红色旅游产品的反馈意见,剖析了重庆红色旅游市场的现状及存在的问题,并针对这些问题提出建议。笔者希望本项研究能丰富重庆红色旅游理论,有助于重庆红色旅游的可持续发展。     

Problems and prospects for the development of urban tourism in Gaborone and Maun,Botswana

This paper draws on the tourism system framework to examine the problems and prospects of urban tourism in Gaborone and Maun, Botswana. These are young centres that have a growing number of tourist attractions, facilities and services that could promote urban tourism. The findings of this study, based on both secondary and primary data sources, indicate that urban tourism in Botswana is relatively undeveloped because there is no substantial domestic market, tourist attractions in urban centres are poorly developed and marketed, and city development plans and the national tourism policy are not integrated. The study concludes that, for tourism to become a viable economic sector in the country, urban tourism should be integrated into Botswana's tourism policy and city planning.     

对上海市住房市场的实证非均衡分析

文章首先通过理论分析表明,住房市场是一个非均衡的市场。随后把上海短期住房市场分为增量房和存量房两个市场,运用非均衡市场的供需函数模型对其进行了定量实证分析。结果表明住房市场的非均衡程度很高,因为上海住房市场中需求缺乏价格弹性,而对未来房价的预期使得投资需求的     

基于旅游体验理论的旅游吸引物系统的构建研究

文章根据目前国内旅游业发展现状,提出了要构建完善的旅游吸引物系统的观点。通过对旅游体验和旅游吸引物系统的研究现状的总结,发现目前还缺乏探讨两者之间关系的研究成果。由此,分析了旅游体验和旅游吸引物系统的关系,指出了目前国内旅游吸引物构建中存在的主要问题,并通过虎丘风景区的案例,提出了基于旅游体验理论构建旅游吸引物系统的具体措施。     

居住用地供给对上海住房市场的影响——基于动态存量一流量模型的实证研究

文章运用住房市场存量-流量模型,动态分析居住用地供给对新建商品住房供给及住房价格的影响,并据此模拟不同居住用地供给思路下商品住房市场的运行状况。基于上海数据的实证分析发现：政府新增居住用地供给对一定时期后的新建商品住房供给具有显著影响;居住用地供给能够影响远期住房价格,但很难对当期住房价格产生影响。模拟结果显示：增加居住用地供给所能起到平抑房价的作用较为有限。据此提出,政府居住用地供给应着眼于长期,不宜依据短期住房市场状况进行频繁调整。     

A Tale of Three Countries: What is the Relationship Between COVID-19, Lockdown and Happiness?

The COVID-19 pandemic led many governments to implement lockdown regulations to curb the spread of the virus. Though lockdowns do minimise the physical damage caused by the virus, there may also be substantial damage to population well-being. Using a pooled data set, we analyse the relationship between a mandatory lockdown and happiness in three diverse countries: South Africa, New Zealand and Australia. These countries differ amongst others in terms of lockdown regulations and duration. The primary aim is to determine, whether a lockdown is negatively associated with happiness, notwithstanding the characteristics of a country or the strictness of the lockdown regulations. Second, we compare the effect size of the lockdown on happiness between these countries. We use Difference-in-Difference estimations to determine the association between lockdown and happiness and a Least Squares Dummy Variable estimation to study the heterogeneity in the effect size of the lockdown by country. Our results show that a lockdown is associated with a decline in happiness, regardless of the characteristics of the country or the type and duration of its lockdown regulations. Furthermore, the effect size differs between countries in the sense that the more stringent the stay-at-home regulations are, the greater it seems to be.     

An Empirical Analysis on Regional Influential Factors of Housing Prices in China

Using the Pooled Data of housing market of 30 provinces during 1995-2003, this paper investigates the micro-level influence factors of housing prices fluctuation in China. We have found out that income, cost and lagged housing prices are important factors to housing prices fluctuation. The influence factors do not change with time, but vary in different regions. In addition, cost and lagged housing prices are not only the influence factors of the state housing prices, but also the notable impact factors to each region. Thus, we suggest that the government should take different policies in different regions, control the demander and supplier and guide fight expectations.     

连云港市国内旅游客源市场空间结构演变研究

客源市场是旅游业发展的重要因素,客源市场研究是旅游规划和市场营销等工作的基础。本文选取1997年和2004年两个时间断面的数据,对连云港市国内旅游客源市场的空间结构进行剖析,并将其与桂林、西安等知名旅游城市进行比较,从而揭示连云港市国内旅游客源市场空间结构的演变规律,为连云港市旅游业发展提供一定的决策参考。