中国内地与香港经济周期的区制依赖协同性分析——纳入美国经济影响的实证

本文运用Markov区制转移模型,对中国内地与香港经济周期协同性的区制依赖特征以及美国对两地经济周期协同性的影响进行了分析。实证结果不仅证实两地经济周期的协同性存在依赖于经济周期区制状态的门限性质,而且显示:两地经济周期的正向协同性,隐含了美国作为两地之间经济冲击的传递渠道以及两地共同的外部冲击源的影响;当剥离出美国经济的影响之后,两地经济周期的协同程度较为微弱。在此背景下,促进中国内地与香港经济周期的长期趋同,应科学甄别和合理利用美国经济对两地经济周期协同性的影响。     

香港与内地跨境资金流动简析

本文利用香港银行体系数据,运用国际收支分析框架,对中国内地和香港之间近10年来跨境资金流动作一简要分析,通过排除可以解释的经常项目和资本项目因素,初步判断不能解释的中国内地与香港之间的资金流动,可能与我国的资本外逃有关.     

CEPA and Opportunities for Hong Kong and Mainland China in Logistics Service

This paper, after reviewing the liberalization of logistics services under the Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement between Mainland China and Hong Kong （hereinafter CEPA）, analyzes the implication of CEPA to both sides in this sector.     

美元利率走势对香港和中国内地的影响

中国跟随美国加息将使中国经济进一步“着陆”,降低对人民币升值的投机性预期,为人民币汇率制度改革创造条件     

外国直接投资与旅游业:来自中国的证据

本文将Zaptata和Rambaldi(1997)提出的方法应用于中国的季度数据,以便检验中国的外国直接投资(FDI)和旅游业之间的因果关系。实证结果表明,由FDI到旅游存在着单向因果关系。这一发现有助于解释过去的十几年中中国旅游市场的快速发展。     

2004年第1季度香港与内地经济联系指数（HMCDI指数）

在上季创下历史新高之后，本季香港与内地经济联系指数回落至120．94，比上季下降了6．16，但仍高于上年同期水平。     

CEPA对香港和内地经济的影响与发展前景

自2004年1月1日《内地与香港关于建立更紧密经贸关系的安排》(CEPA)正式实施以来,已经历了四个阶段的发展。CEPA的顺利实施,加速了香港和内地经济的融合,促进了两地产业结构的合理调整和经济的协调发展。本文回顾了CEPA实施以来的进展情况,分析了CEPA对香港和内地经济的影响,指出了实施过程中出现的一些问题,最后对CEPA的发展方向予以展望。本文认为,随着CEPA开放领域的不断扩大和深化,加强贸易投资便利化已经成为CEPA有效、顺利实施的关键环节。     

香港回归后港商投资内地的区位布局与决策因素分析

香港回归10年来,港商对内地投资总体上呈现显著的空间分异格局,同时也出现了北上西进的空间扩散趋势。本文采用主成分因子分析和多元回归分析方法,解释了港资空间分异与空间转移模式的成因,并预测了港商未来在祖国内地的投资走向。     

港人关注内地投资气候——访香港恒基兆业地产有限公司营业部总经理 谢伟铨

香港回归十周年之际，在新鲜出炉的“华商天下1000大”中排名高居50强的香港恒基兆业地产有限公司在内地发起主办了一场以“内地及香港投资气候”为主题的研讨会，会议围绕中国的资本市场、香港的投资气候及香港的房地产投资方法等投资领域的热点话题展开，两地多名业界资深人士应邀出席并发表精彩观点，内地诸多杰出企业家和政府相关部门的领导莅临现场。     

Clustering of Foreign Direct Investment and Enhanced Technology Transfer: Evidence from Hong Kong Garment Firms in China

Separately, both foreign direct investment (FDI) and industry clusters have each received considerable and growing attention in development literature. Each is broadly thought to affect economic growth positively through facilitation of knowledge and technology transfers. But FDI and industry clusters in conjunction have not hitherto been empirically considered specifically with regard to such transfers. This paper does so by examining the proposition that FDI within geographical industry clusters should transfer technology more than FDI that is geographically dispersed. Data are drawn from a quantitative survey of Hong Kong garment firms with manufacturing investments in Mainland China. Clustered FDI is shown to be significantly better than dispersed FDI at transferring technology in certain respects, implying that industry cluster and FDI policies should be considered in tandem rather than separately if developmental benefits from both are to be optimized.     

在WTO条件下，推进“两岸四地”的经济整合

经济全球化是当今世界经济发展的主旋律.各个国家和地区,特别是发展中国家,都在积极应对经济全球化带来的机遇和挑战.在此过程中,区域经济合作、区域经济集团化和区域经济一体化也越来越成为一种突出的趋势和现象.     

公积金：内地要向香港学习

为解决人口急剧老龄化问题，保障大多数人的退休生活，香港特区政府自2000年12月起正式推行强积金（强制性公积金）计划。强积金是以职业为基础的退休保障计划，除豁免人士外，凡年龄在侣岁至65岁之间的雇员和自雇人士都必须参加强积金。强积金计划推行时间虽然不长，但其效果非常明显，目前已覆盖了86％的香港就业人士。在强积金投资上，香港特区政府对投资范围、投资比例及投资工具等都作了详细的规定，保证了基金的稳健运营。由于人们可以灵活地选择其养老金账户的投资方式，近年来，强积金的总资产净值每年增长超过三成，截至去年底已滚存至1200亿港元。     

FDI and market entry/exit: Evidence from China

This paper considers the impact of FDI and FDI-related spillovers on the entry and exit rates of domestic firms in mainland China's manufacturing sector. Since we suspect that aggregate results obscure differing effects based on the source of the FDI, we disaggregate FDI into that originating from Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan (HMT) area and the rest of the world. The empirical analysis, based on 4-digit industry level panel data over the period 2003–2007, reveals that FDI originating from the rest of the world has made a significant contribution to the entry rate of domestic firms in China and the spillover effect arising from backward linkages is also positive and significant. However, FDI originating from HMT area has not encouraged domestic entry, whilst it has contributed to an increase in the exit rate of domestic firms.     

Economic policy uncertainty,tax quotas and corporate tax burden: Evidence from China

This paper studies how economic policy uncertainty affects corporate tax burden. We show that economic policy uncertainty is positively related to corporate tax burden, and the effect is stronger when the tax quotas are higher. Furthermore, we find that economic policy uncertainty strengthens tax collection by increasing government fiscal pressure, thereby increasing corporate tax burden. Besides, the effects of economic policy uncertainty on corporate tax burden are primarily significant in state-owned enterprises (SOEs), non-high-tech firms, firms from the eastern areas and service industry firms. The evidence illustrates that keeping the transparency and stability of economic policies helps to cut tax burden effectively.     

Does School Quality Matter? Evidence from the Hong Kong Experience

This paper analyses the differential returns to education and to language ability of natives and Chinese immigrants in Hong Kong. The large difference in quality between Hong Kong schools and Chinese schools provides a natural experiment for evaluating the effect of school quality on students' performance in the labor market. We show that the rate of return to schooling is more than three times higher among local-born workers than among Chinese immigrants to Hong Kong. Our analysis also suggests that English language education is one important component of the success of the Hong Kong education system.     

贸易自由化、工业化与企业区位——新经济地理视角中国FDI流入的研究

随着中国经济社会改革的深入,大量FDI涌入中国.本文拓展了新经济地理学非对称自由资本模型,研究结果表明,初始经济封闭的大国随着产品替代弹性降低、工业产品支出比重增加和贸易自由度变大将成为资本的净流入国.中国1983～2006年经验数据的研究表明,中国FDI的净流入与中国的工业化、贸易自由化的程度(中国市场的开放、加入W...     

Second language skills and labor market outcomes: Evidence from the handover of Hong Kong

This paper analyzes the effects of second languages skills on labor market outcomes in Hong Kong. Using data from the Hong Kong Population Censuses, we find that both Mandarin and English language skills are linked to improved labor market performance, and the premiums for English are much larger than those for Mandarin. We further show that the sovereignty transfer of Hong Kong from the UK to China in 1997 has strengthened the positive role of Mandarin and English language skills in finding a job in Hong Kong. The political change has also increased the earnings of people with the ability to speak Mandarin. As a comparison, the earnings premium for speaking English has declined in magnitude after the sovereignty transfer. Investigating into the mechanisms, we show that the rising premiums for Mandarin language skills are operated through choices of occupations and industry sectors. Our findings suggest that important political changes can affect the economic returns to language skills in the labor market.     

Exploring the Case for Monetary Integration between the Chinese Mainland and Hong Kong

This paper presents an empirical investigation on an important policy issue, namely, whether there is any evidence supporting monetary integration between the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong. We follow two lines of inquiry. First, we present a series of simple tests to find the extent to which trade and/or financial linkages exist between the two regions. Second, we use simple inflation and output differentials and structural VAR techniques to test for the degree of business cycle synchronization between the two regions. The results indicate that there is evidence supporting the existence of trade linkages and that there is also support for the possible synchronization of business cycles. We discuss the implications of this for monetary integration between Hong Kong and the mainland.     

The role of FDI in domestic exporting: Evidence from China

This paper investigates the impact of FDI on domestic exporting firms. We show that domestic firms respond to an increase in the presence of FDI by increasing their exports even though the increase in foreign presence can drive up production costs and make the domestic market more profitable. Our test case for this hypothesis is China, where we confirm the significant positive impact of FDI on domestic firms’ exports. This finding sheds light on the massive exports and rapid inflow of foreign investment that have been observed in China in the past three decades.