The impact of unconventional monetary policy on the market for collateral: The case of the French bond market

We consider the channel consisting in transferring the credit risk associated with refinancing operations between financial institutions to market participants. In particular, we analyze liquidity and volatility premia on the French government debt securities market, since these assets are used as collateral both in the open market operations of the ECB and on the interbank market. In our time-varying transition probability Markov-switching (TVTP-MS) model, we highlight the existence of two regimes. In one of them, which we refer to as the conventional regime, monetary policy neutrality is verified; in the other, which we dub the unconventional regime, monetary policy operations lead to volatility and liquidity premia on the collateral market. The existence of these conventional and unconventional regimes highlights some asymmetries in the conduct of monetary policy.     

Using Interest Rate Derivative Prices to Estimate LIBOR-OIS Spread Dynamics and Systemic Funding Liquidity Shock Probabilities

Following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in mid-September 2008, there were severe disruptions in international money markets and banks reportedly faced severe liquidity shocks in particular US dollar funding shortages, prompting central banks around the world to adopt unprecedented policy measures to supply funds to the banks. A better understanding of the forward-looking information content about funding liquidity risk in interest rate derivative prices is therefore necessary to gauge pressures building surrounding systemic liquidity. Using the market prices of the US dollar LIBOR-overnight index swap spread, we estimate the probability of the systemic funding liquidity shock during the crisis period, which deviated from zero on 17 September 2008 to a significant level. This provided an early warning signal of the systemic liquidity shock on 29 September 2008 when the interbank market was totally paralysed.     

货币政策对银行间市场流动性影响效应的实证研究及启示

银行间货币市场是央行实施货币政策的重要平台，研究货币政策对银行间市场流动性的影响对于完善商业银行日常流动性管理具有重要意义。文章在设定银行间市场流动性测度指标与梳理货币政策工具对市场流动性的影响机制的基础上，分别使用事件分析法和时间序列模型对不同政策工具的影响效应进行实证分析，得出相关分析结论，并总结其对于完善商业银行日常流动性管理的启示。     

The Role of Interbank Markets in Monetary Policy: A Model with Rationing

This paper analyzes the impact of asymmetric information in the interbank market and establishes its crucial role in the microfoundations of the monetary policy transmission mechanism. We show that interbank market imperfections induce an equilibrium with rationing in the credit market. This has two major implications: first, it reconciles the irresponsiveness of business investment to the user cost of capital with the large impact of monetary policy ( magnitude effect ), and second, it shows that banks' liquidity positions condition their reaction to monetary policy ( Kashyap and Stein liquidity effect ).     

Liquidity Crunch in the Interbank Market: Is it Credit or Liquidity Risk, or Both?

The interplay between liquidity and credit risks in the interbank market is analyzed. Banks are hit by idiosyncratic random liquidity shocks. The market may also be hit by bad news at a future date, implying the insolvency of some participants and creating a lemons problem; this may end up with a gridlock of the interbank market at that date. Anticipating such possible contingency, banks currently long of liquidity ask a liquidity premium for lending beyond a short maturity, as a compensation for the risk of being short of liquidity later and being forced to liquidate some illiquid assets. When such premium gets too high, banks currently short of liquidity prefer to borrow short term. The model is able to explain some stylized facts of the 2007–2009 liquidity crunch affecting the money market at the international level: (i) high spreads between interest rates at different maturities; (ii) “flight to overnight” in traded volumes; (iii) ineffectiveness of open market operations, leading the central banks to introduce some relevant innovations into their operational framework.     

Subprime mortgage funding and liquidity risk

In this article, we use actuarial methods to solve a nonlinear stochastic optimal liquidity risk management problem for subprime originators with deposit inflow rates and marketable securities allocation as controls. The main objective is to minimize liquidity risk in the form of funding and credit crunch risk in an incomplete market. In order to accomplish this, we construct a stochastic model that incorporates originator mortgage and deposit reference processes. Finally, numerical examples that illustrate the main modeling and optimization features of the article are provided.     

货币政策对流动性风险的影响——基于银行信贷行为视角

本文基于我国现实背景和《巴塞尔协议Ⅲ》,利用2008年至2017年间194家商业银行的相关数据,对我国银行净稳定资金率进行了度量,并在此基础上,检验了货币政策对我国商业银行流动性风险的影响,探究了其影响机理和传导渠道。研究表明:扩张型货币政策会提高商业银行的流动性风险;不同经济环境下,货币政策对流动性风险的影响存在差异但不具备异质性;不同类型的商业银行中,货币政策对流动性风险的影响不具有异质性;在货币政策对流动性风险的影响中,银行信贷行为是重要的传导渠道。因此,央行可基于货币政策对流动性风险的影响差异进行相机抉择;商业银行则要加强信贷规模和质量的管理,优化资产结构,通过弱化信贷渠道作用来降低货币政策对银行流动性风险的不良影响。     

The interbank market after the financial turmoil: Squeezing liquidity in a “lemons market” or asking liquidity “on tap”

After August 2007 the plumbing system that supplied banks with wholesale funding, the interbank market, failed because toxic assets obstructed the pipes. Banks were forced to squeeze liquidity in a “lemons market” or to ask for liquidity “on tap” from central banks. This paper disentangles the two components of the 3-month Euribor–Eonia swap spread, credit and liquidity risk and then evaluates the decomposition. The main finding is that credit risk increased before the key events of the crisis, while liquidity risk was mainly responsible for the subsequent increases in the Euribor spread and then reacted to the systemic responses of the central banks, especially in October 2008. Moreover, the level of the spread between May 2009 and February 2010 was influenced mainly by credit risk, suggesting that European banks were still in a “lemons market” and relied on liquidity “on tap” even before sovereign debt crisis unfolded in Europe.     

Monetary Policy Transmission with Interbank Market Fragmentation

This paper shows how interbank market fragmentation disrupts the transmission of monetary policy. Fragmentation is the fact that banks, depending on their country of location, have different probabilities of default on their interbank borrowings. Once fragmentation is introduced into standard theoretical models of monetary policy implementation, excess liquidity arises endogenously. This leads short-term interest rates to depart from the central bank policy rates. Using data on monetary policy operations, I show that this mechanism has been at work in the euro area since 2008. The model is used to analyze conventional and unconventional monetary policy measures.     

Interbank interest rates: Funding liquidity risk and XIBOR basis spreads

This article presents a theoretical model for interbank money market (XIBOR) rates that endogenously generates the basis spreads that characterize post-crisis fixed income markets: XIBOR-OIS spreads, tenor basis spreads, and the forward basis. Our approach is based on an explicit modeling of interbank cash transactions where interbank credit and liquidity risk are factored in. The framework of this article offers a consistent, arbitrage-free explanation for the emergence of basis spreads. We also demonstrate that funding liquidity is a key determinant of post-crisis XIBOR rates and, in particular, tenor basis spreads.     

美国货币政策对中国信贷市场的溢出效应研究

本文使用向量自回归误差修正模型(VECM)研究了美国货币政策对中国信贷市场的溢出性影响。研究发现,美国货币政策可以通过影响中国的信贷市场而作用于中国内生的广义货币供给。宽松的美国货币政策对中国信贷供给有正向影响。美元流动性通过该机制形成了对中国过剩流动性的溢出效应。在后危机时代,我们需要对美国货币政策可能的调整进行前瞻性的应对。     

Measuring monetary policy and its impact on the bond market of an emerging economy

In view of multiple instruments used by many central banks in emerging market economies (EMEs), we derive a composite measure of monetary policy for India and assess its impact on the yield curve. Our results show that while monetary policy has the dominant impact among macroeconomic variables on the entire term structure, it is particularly strong at the shorter end and on credit spreads. Shifts in the level of the government yield curve and credit spreads also lead to changes in monetary policy. In terms of robustness, our measure performs better than a narrative-based measure of monetary policy available in the literature.     

2014年上半年货币市场利率运行报告

2014年上半年,在稳健的货币政策基调下,货币市场利率冲高回落,总体平稳,利率中枢下移,波幅收窄,6N份关键时点没有发生大的市场异动。这主要得益于央行货币政策操作稳定市场预期,以及金融机构完善流动性管理措施。此外,交易所市场与银行间市场的利率差异性仍然存在;境外货币市场利率走势背离于境内市场,利差保持较高水平。     

流动性覆盖率监管会影响货币政策传导效率吗？——来自中国银行业的证据

本文从流动性覆盖率监管要求出发,探讨了流动性监管与货币政策的协调机制问题。我们将流动性覆盖率监管要求纳入传统的Monti-Klein模型中,推导出流动性覆盖率监管对货币政策传导效率的影响及其作用机制。在此基础上,采用手工收集的我国65家商业银行2015—2019年半年度面板数据对理论假设进行实证检验。研究发现,流动性覆盖率监管要求会对货币政策传导效率产生影响,但这种影响取决于流动性监管约束下商业银行流动性管理行为的选择。商业银行主动调整融资结构、增强负债质量的行为在提高银行短期流动性水平的同时,也能显著提高货币政策传导效率,而流动性资产的囤积则可能降低货币政策传导效率。因此,应客观看待流动性覆盖率监管对货币政策传导效率的影响,引导商业银行的流动性管理行为,这将有助于实现流动性监管与货币政策有效传导的“双赢”目标。     

2010年11月银行间市场运行报告

2010年11月,银行间市场面临的货币政策环境＂外松内紧＂。银行间市场交易整体保持活跃,各市场交易量同比均大幅增长;人民币市场资金面逐渐收紧,货币市场短期利率明显上扬;国债收益率曲线平坦化上移;人民币汇率中间价上半月显著升值,人民币对美元即期交易价格在外汇新规出台后大幅波动。银行间市场业务创新进一步推进,人民币对俄罗斯卢布交易正式推出,便利跨境贸易人民币结算业务开展;信用风险缓释凭证交易上线,有利于拓展衍生品市场深度与广度。     

新常态下中国货币政策的宏观经济效应研究 ——基于不同中介目标的实证检验

以中国2003-2020年的季度宏观经济数据为样本,通过构建时变系数向量自回归模型分析银行间同业拆借利率、M2、信贷规模、社会融资规模四项货币政策中介目标对实际产出、通货膨胀、房地产市场以及股票市场的动态影响效应.结果表明:同业拆借利率对产出的影响呈增强趋势,M2、信贷以及社会融资规模等数量型货币政策对产出的影响效应更显著;信贷与社会融资规模对通货膨胀的影响效应较显著;同业拆借利率对房地产市场的短期影响效应较大;M2、信贷与社会融资规模对房地产与股票市场的长期影响效应较大.     

The Interbank Market after August 2007: What Has Changed,and Why?

After the onset of the financial crisis, spreads between interbank interest rates on unsecured and secured deposits for the major world currencies became exceptionally large and volatile. First, we find that the phenomenon was mainly driven by aggregate—rather than bank‐specific—factors, notably risk aversion, and accounting practices; by contrast, funding liquidity, capital shortage, and central bank interventions were not important determinants. Second, prior to August 2007, the spread was broadly insensitive to key borrower characteristics, whereas afterward it became somewhat more reactive to measures of creditworthiness. Third, conditions for big borrowers became relatively more favorable during the crisis, suggesting that moral hazard risks related to the “too‐big‐to‐fail” argument have increased. These results are discussed in the light of theories on the interbank market during a crisis.     

2012年上半年银行问市场运行报告

2012年上半年,银行间市场整体平稳运行,主要特点是：银行间各市场对各项货币政策操作反应灵敏;债券市场进一步对外开放,市场行情呈现慢牛走势;利率互换电子化交易确认和冲销业务正式推出降低参与者操作风险,提高交易效率;人民币对美元汇率波幅扩大,且在震荡中小幅走贬并出现贬值预期;人民币对日元直接交易的推出显著改善市场流动性;人民币远掉格局重构,外汇期权趋于活跃。     

融资流动性与债券资产流动性的互动特征——基于MS-VAR模型的时变分析

依据2015-2021年货币市场和债券市场的时间序列数据,运用MS-VAR探究了不同违约风险环境下融资流动性与债券资产流动性间的互动关系。研究发现：无论是利率债还是信用债,其资产流动性与货币市场的融资流动性存在互为正反馈的流动性螺旋。此外,两类流动性间的互动特征存在非对称性和异质性,在风险时期,融资流动性与利率债资产流动性互动特征比较明显,而在平稳时期,融资流动性与信用债资产流动性互动特征比较明显。     

再析美国金融危机前的利率政策

全球金融危机与美国货币政策的变化密不可分,从低利率货币信贷扩张的流动性过剩到高利率的流动性紧缩,使宏观经济产生剧烈波动,前期低利率带来过剩的流动性,后期利率的提高造成巨量房地产泡沫的破灭。让美联储无视资产泡沫的原因是美联储货币政策一贯秉持的"泰勒规则"指导原则没有纳入资产价格因子,致使美联储货币政策调控失误。