组织双元性视角下危机驱动数字创新模式研究——基于新冠危机组织数字创新案例分析

危机作为一种外源性冲击,显著改变了组织运作的基本前提。数字技术应用不仅有助于应对危机,还催生出新的创新类型。基于危机管理和组织双元性理论视角,分析和确立数字创新的两个维度：创新驱动（紧迫感与雄心感）与创新焦点（开发与探索）。在此基础上构建数字创新模式分类框架。阐释并讨论4种创新模式及其特征,结合新冠危机期间的组织数字创新案例说明它们如何以及为何在危机背景下导致数字创新。     

我国通货膨胀成因解析--基于开放经济体DSGE模型的研究

为定量探讨国内外各种经济冲击如何影响我国通货膨胀及其解释力大小,本文构建出一个符合中国经济特性的开放经济体系动态随机一般均衡（ DSGE）模型,并基于1997-2013年季度数据进行贝斯估计。研究结果表明本文模型可以很好地匹配主要宏观变量的数据特性。通过模型对通货膨胀的方差分解发现,我国通货膨胀波动最主要解释因素依次为生产技术冲击、货币政策冲击、及国外价格冲击。藉由模型对通货膨胀的历史拆解发现,样本期间内2002Q2-2004Q3、2006Q3-2008Q1、及2009Q2-2011Q3三轮通胀上升周期中最主要推动因素分别为投资效率冲击、国外价格冲击、及货币政策冲击。     

2017—2022年国内枢纽机场生产效率比较分析

布局完善的航空运输网络是民航业发展的关键。枢纽机场作为航空运输网络的重要节点,在机场网络中扮演着重要角色。运用超效率SBM(基于松弛值测算)模型和Malmquist模型,选取2017—2022年国内39个枢纽机场数据为样本进行静态与动态分析。结果表明,研究期间我国枢纽机场生产效率处于“无效”阶段,受新冠肺炎疫情影响国际航空枢纽机场生产效率下降幅度大于区域枢纽机场,所属华东机场群的枢纽机场受新冠肺炎疫情影响最大,西北机场群的枢纽机场虽然新冠肺炎疫情前效率最低但下降幅度最小。     

How is the Asian economy recovering from COVID-19? Evidence from the emissions of air pollutants

This study examines how economic and social activities in Asia were affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, using the emissions of various air pollutants as representative measures of those activities. Our review of emissions data suggests that the amount of air pollutants emitted decreased in most subnational regions from 2019 to 2020. We also determined that economic and social activities have restarted in some regions in many countries. Moreover, we conduct regression analyses to identify the types of regions that restarted earlier. Regional characteristics are distinguished by employing a remotely sensed land cover dataset and OpenStreetMap. Results reveal that in the case of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) forerunners, economic and social activities in cropland, industrial estates, accommodations, restaurants, education, and public services have not yet returned to previous levels.     

新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情期间学生“在家上课”的机遇、挑战与担当

2020年伊始,“新冠”肺炎疫情席卷全国,并呈现蔓延趋势.教育部随即发布新学期延期开学和“停课不停学”的相关通知,全国各省市的学生们开启了“在家上课”的新学习模式.本文梳理分析了这种新的学习模式给学生们带来的机遇和挑战,旨在为学生群体可以更好地把握机遇,坚定自己的理想信念,保持用正确的评判标准明辨是非,战胜挑战,并展现...     

COVID-19 impact on firm investment—Evidence from Chinese publicly listed firms

The COVID-19 outbreak had a significant impact on business cash flows and investment activities. This paper examined the COVID-19 impact on Chinese business investment in 3326 A-share listed quarterly financial reports, from which it was found that the negative relationship was more pronounced in the large, eastern Chinese state-owned firms. Using a propensity score matching method and difference-in-differences estimation, corporate financial flexibility was also examined, with the results indicating that high cash flexibility provided a buffer that allowed firms to better deal with adverse external shocks as the firms that had high cash flexibility were able to significantly increase their investments after the COVID-19 outbreak. Various robustness tests were conducted, all of which verified the robustness of the results. Overall, the empirical results provided evidence that the COVID-19 pandemic in China had a negative impact on Chinese listed firms, and verified the vital role of flexible financial reserves for firm survival and development during crises.     

海南省旅游统计数据的ARIMA模型预测分析和新冠肺炎疫情影响分析

以海南省旅游统计数据为基础,利用ARIMA模型,并结合新冠肺炎确诊人数进行预测分析。结果表明,海南省游客流量和旅游收入在新冠疫情下依然可以很大程度保持原有的增长趋势和季节性波动规律,但两组数据表现略有不同。新冠肺炎疫情对海南省旅游统计数据的影响体现在两个方面,一方面是新冠肺炎疫情严重程度与旅游统计数据存在明显此消彼长的关系,另一方面是新冠肺炎疫情主要对旅游统计数据中的游客流量产生了较大影响。可以得出政策启示：政府要做好疫情防控和让民众对旅游业持有信心,要随着疫情发展弹性放开或收紧旅游业,还要对需求侧进行扶持和对供给侧进行创新。     

On the global COVID-19 pandemic and China’s FDI

The global COVID-19 pandemic has generated serious challenges for the world economy, including cross-border foreign direct investment (FDI). China’s inward FDI (IFDI) and outward FDI (OFDI) are also facing unprecedented risks and challenges. This paper first clarifies the timelines of the pandemic evolving in China, the US, and the rest of the world. It then reflects on China’s past development process of IFDI and OFDI, noting the growth of IFDI and highlighting the risks and challenges for OFDI during and after the pandemic. Empirical evidence for the impact of COVID-19 on FDI is set out. Policy recommendations are then made regarding China’s latest development strategy using the so-called dual circulation to sustain its economic growth with respect to cross-border FDI.     

模拟统一碳排放市场的建立对我国经济的影响——基于DSGE模型

本文采用基于中国经济的DSGE模型,模拟在技术和政策的外生冲击下,建立统一碳排放市场对总产出、环境质量和CER实际价格产生的影响。分析结果表明,在政府制定好CER审核标准的前提下,短期至中期,建立统一碳排放市场具有减小总产出波动、提高环境质量以及减小CER实际价格波动的作用。而在长期,建立统一碳排放市场并不会对总产出和CER实际价格产生明显影响,却对环境有改善的作用。同时建立统一碳排放市场将会：使得财政政策的效果与未建立统一碳排放市场时的效果相反;要求政府对CER审核标准的定制更加谨慎,以应对清洁型技术可能带来的部分不利影响;对货币政策效果影响不明显。     

A Tale of Three Countries: What is the Relationship Between COVID-19, Lockdown and Happiness?

The COVID-19 pandemic led many governments to implement lockdown regulations to curb the spread of the virus. Though lockdowns do minimise the physical damage caused by the virus, there may also be substantial damage to population well-being. Using a pooled data set, we analyse the relationship between a mandatory lockdown and happiness in three diverse countries: South Africa, New Zealand and Australia. These countries differ amongst others in terms of lockdown regulations and duration. The primary aim is to determine, whether a lockdown is negatively associated with happiness, notwithstanding the characteristics of a country or the strictness of the lockdown regulations. Second, we compare the effect size of the lockdown on happiness between these countries. We use Difference-in-Difference estimations to determine the association between lockdown and happiness and a Least Squares Dummy Variable estimation to study the heterogeneity in the effect size of the lockdown by country. Our results show that a lockdown is associated with a decline in happiness, regardless of the characteristics of the country or the type and duration of its lockdown regulations. Furthermore, the effect size differs between countries in the sense that the more stringent the stay-at-home regulations are, the greater it seems to be.     

房地产市场、银行体系与中国宏观经济波动——基于多部门动态随机一般均衡模型的分析

本文建立了一个包含异质性家庭、企业、零售商、商业银行、中央银行等多部门的动态随机一般均衡模型。模型中企业以房地产抵押向银行借贷,普通家庭通过银行借款提前消费房地产,将房地产市场与银行体系引入模型,两者构成模型中经济波动传导的主体。我们模拟了各种冲击（包括房地产偏好、存款准备金率、通胀等）对宏观经济变量的动态影响,模拟的一些结果和现实中国经济反应非常一致。模拟结果表明:房地产需求的增加会在一定程度上引发经济衰退,影响经济最重要的变量是央行的存款准备金率和通胀冲击,银行体系将外生冲击分散传导,导致经济主体在冲击下形成其不同经济表现,在我国,银行体系是我国经济波动不可忽视的传导途径。     

COVID-19疫情影响的旅游目的地形象修复策略研究

COVID-19疫情的爆发和蔓延对中国旅游业发展产生了负面影响,如何对旅游目的地形象进行修复已成为现阶段国内旅游复兴发展的重要议题。文章结合"source, message and audience"旅游目的地形象修复策略,揭示COVID-19疫情期国内旅游营销为旅游正面形象的维护所做的努力,为疫后旅游目的地形象修复策略的选择和制定提供参考。     

防风险、稳增长背景下的货币政策预期管理研究——基于消息冲击的DSGE模型分析

货币政策预期管理对于我国防范金融风险、稳定经济增长有重要的作用.通过构建含有托宾Q的新凯恩斯DSGE模型,在不同货币政策规则下引入预期冲击,运用贝叶斯方法对模型进行估计并分析货币政策未预期冲击和预期冲击对宏观经济变量的影响.政策实验分析发现,经济系统受到货币政策预期冲击之后,各主要宏观经济变量产生了消息冲击驱动的经济周期波动,表明货币政策预期管理能够影响到宏观经济运行,经济主体预期在经济系统中能够起到一定传导作用.此外,相对于未预期的货币政策冲击,货币政策预期冲击对宏观经济变量的影响更为平缓,更能起到抵御资产价格巨幅震荡、平滑经济稳定运行的作用.因此,我国央行有必要加强货币政策预期管理,进一步完善货币政策预期管理机制.     

财政应对突发公共卫生事件的制度逻辑及其机制完善

财政作为国家治理的基础和重要支柱,在应对新冠肺炎疫情中起着至关重要的作用。将财政应对突发公共卫生的实践内嵌于财政改革发展逻辑框架下进行考察,在对比SARS相关情况的基础上,分析财政应对新冠肺炎疫情的机制,并判断疫情对财政收支的直接影响和间接影响、短期影响和中长期影响。在此基础上,剖析财政应对突发公共卫生事件存在的问题,进而提出加大支持力度、压缩一般性支出、强化资金监管、加强信息交流和公开等近期应急性财税对策,以及健全筹资体制、优化事权划分、调整支出结构、加强绩效管理等中长期制度性财税措施。