The crossroads of ESG and religious screening on firm risk

Using a large and extended global dataset of non-financial firms (4624 listed entities from 2002 to 2018), we provide the first empirical evidence on how ESG and Sharia screenings interact and influence market risks. We link two contrasting literature streams: the risk reduction role that the stakeholder theory attributes to ESG scores, and the opposite effect for Sharia-compliance anticipated by the portfolio and agency theories.We find that when ESG scores are not considered, Sharia certification increases risks. We also prove that engagement in sustainable activities mitigates risks for both Sharia-compliant and conventional firms. More interestingly, we show that Sharia-compliant firms obtain a larger risk-mitigating effect for greater levels of ESG scores. These results are robust to endogeneity and to extensive additional checks.Our findings validate the hypothesized complementarity between ESG and Sharia screenings.     

ESG投资能够促进银行创造流动性吗?——兼论经济政策不确定性的调节效应

当前在我国致力于实现“碳达峰、碳中和”目标的大背景下,银行能否通过ESG投资促进流动性创造,进而推动高质量发展具有重大战略意义。本文利用2009年第一季度至2020年第二季度中国36家上市银行的面板数据,实证分析ESG投资对银行流动性创造的影响,并将其置于经济政策不确定性条件下予以讨论。研究发现:第一,ESG投资整体上促进流动性创造,表现为对资产端和负债端流动性创造的促进作用,以及对表外流动性创造的抑制作用。从ESG投资结构看,环境保护投资和社会责任投资均抑制流动性创造,而公司治理投资则促进流动性创造。异质性分析表明,地方性银行和资本短缺银行的ESG投资对流动性创造具有更强的促进作用。第二,中介机制分析发现,ESG投资主要通过“盈利”和“风险”渠道促进流动性创造。第三,在经济政策不确定性上升时期,ESG投资对流动性创造的促进作用更加显著。从ESG投资分项看,经济政策不确定性会增强环境保护投资和社会责任投资对流动性创造的抑制作用,以及公司治理投资对流动性创造的促进作用。本文结论为充分发挥ESG投资作用并以此推动高质量发展提供了政策启示。     

Changes in risk characteristics of firms issuing hybrid securities: case of convertible bonds

The present paper examines changes in risk characteristics of a firm when it issues convertible bonds by studying the change in beta before and after the issuance of convertible bonds. Using a sample of 149 firms, strong evidence was found of change in beta, along with significant heterogeneity across firms. On average, the beta of a firm issuing convertible bonds declines, although 40 per cent of firms showed an increase in beta. A cross‐sectional regression shows that after controlling for the reversion‐to‐mean phenomenon, the change in beta is significantly related to potential dilution of equity as well as to increase in debt, but is not significantly related to either the change in bond rating of a firm or to the stated use of funds from issuance.     

The summary informativeness of stock trades: an econometric analysis

In a security market with asymmetrically informed participants,trades are signals of private information. In this article,new measures of trade informativeness are proposed based ona decomposition of the variance of changes in the efficientprice into trade-correlated and -uncorrelated components. Thetrade-correlated component has a natural interpretation as anabsolute measure of trade informativeness. The ratio of thiscomponent to the total variance is a relative measure (i.e.,a proportion normalized with respect to the total public information).For a sample of NYSE-listed companies, trades are found to bemore informative for small firms in both absolute and relativesenses. From an analysis of intraday patterns, it appears thattrades are in absolute terms more informative at the beginningof trading, but slightly less informative in relative terms.     

The role of covered interest parity in explaining the forward premium anomaly within a nonlinear panel framework

This paper investigates the dynamic properties of uncovered interest parity (UIP) depending on deviations from covered interest parity (CIP) in a nonlinear panel framework. By employing a panel smooth transition regression model, the threshold level of the CIP deviation in which UIP tends to hold is found to be outside the band of inaction where deviations from CIP would fail to be arbitraged away. This paper shows how reversals of UIP observed during the global financial crisis can be, to some extent, accounted for by funding liquidity constraints. Simulation experiments also suggest that the data-generating process from the nonlinear panel model can produce data consistent with the failure of UIP.     

Fair value accounting and the present value fallacy: The need for an alternative conceptual framework

The major functions of company accounting identified by the IASB and the FASB are (1) reporting on ‘the custody and safekeeping’ of the company's resources and (2) reporting on ‘their efficient and profitable use’. The joint IASB/FASB project for improving the conceptual framework for financial reporting is directed towards better performance of both functions within the conventional ‘accrual’ system of accounting through the use of ‘fair value’. Although the disclosure of fair values is a development to be welcomed, the requirement that changes in fair value should be reported as ‘gains’ or ‘losses’ appears to rely on the ‘Hicksian’ concept of income as a theoretical ideal.The object of the present paper is to establish that this concept is fundamentally flawed by what may be called the ‘present value fallacy’. Even in an economic utopia of perfectly competitive markets (with no discrepancies between objective market values and subjective present values), the concept of income or profit as value growth can be seriously misleading.If the prevailing Hicksian conceptual framework is discarded in favour of an alternative based on Fisher's theory of income, the two major, but incompatible, functions of financial reporting can be carried out independently and without compromise. The conventional ‘hybrid’ system of accrual accounting, in which backward-looking measures of volume and forward-looking measures of value are mixed together, would be replaced by a ‘segregated’ system in which they are kept strictly apart. A logical extension of Fisher's theory suggests the disclosure by agent/managers of the return on investment that they are planning to deliver to their principal/owners. This type of ‘decision-useful information’ is vital for the efficient operation of capital markets and for removing the accounting incentive to short-termism.     

Climate change,risk factors and stock returns: A review of the literature

This article reviews how climate change could be considered an additional source of market risk. I discuss the types of data needed to analyse the climate risk drivers that shape the dynamics of the equity market. I present empirical evidence at both the macro and micro-level, analysing whether and to what extent the equity market prices climate change and related risks. Top-down and bottom-up approaches are compared to understand which climate risk is more likely to affect the cross-section of stock returns, both within and across sectors. Emphasis is also placed on investors’ beliefs about climate change risks, and the related asset pricing implications are analysed. I conclude by illustrating further directions for both empirical and theoretical research in the field of climate finance.     

The ESG effect on the cost of debt financing: A sharp RD analysis

Environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors have become increasingly relevant within the financial world. Despite extensive evidence regarding the equity side, limited studies in the literature have investigated the potential effects of ESG performance on the main drivers of debt. This study aims to understand whether there is a positive effect from a cost of debt standpoint for corporations with relatively better ESG performance. Using the ESG score by Refinitiv and a sharp regression discontinuity design, we do not find statistically significant evidence for discrete jumps in correspondence with the ESG score average for the cost of debt of European nonfinancial corporates over the 2018–2020 period. In a sharp regression discontinuity setting, we obtain analogous results by developing a linear probability model.     

A framework for the analysis of firm risk communication

In this paper, we propose a framework for the analysis of risk communication and an index to measure the quality of risk disclosure. Mainstream literature on voluntary disclosure has emphasized that quantity can be used as a sound proxy for quality. We contend that, in the analysis of the disclosure of risks made by public companies, attention has to be paid not only to how much is disclosed but also to what is disclosed and how.We apply the framework to a sample of nonfinancial companies listed in the ordinary market on the Italian Stock Exchange. To verify that the framework and synthetic index are not influenced by the two factors recognized in the literature as the most powerful drivers of disclosure behavior for listed companies, we use an OLS model. The regression shows that the index of disclosure quantity is not influenced either by size or industry. Thus, the synthetic measure can be used to rank the quality of the disclosure of risks.     

On time varying risk premia in the foreign exchange market: An econometric analysis

A generic intertemporal asset pricing model is applied in an international setting to generate a (possibly time varying) risk premium in the market for forward foreign exchange. The model is fitted and statistical tests of its general specification are performed. These specification tests provide weak evidence against the model.     

Domestic and foreign trade credit in the Netherlands an econometric analysis

In this study the determinants of both domestic and foreign trade credit are investigated. Data were obtained from about 1600 industrial firms in The Netherlands with 100 or more employees and covering the period 1957–1971. The main findings are as follows. In the first place, (net) trade credit turns out to be a structural source of funds for the weaker firms in the simple. Secondly, these weaker firms receive more (net) trade credit when monetary policy is tightened (this could be an argument for the authorities to pursue a general monetary policy). Finally, it appears that it is especially the buyer (debtor) who may ‘lead’ or ‘lag’ international payments in the short run.     

Liquidity and credit premia in the yields of highly-rated sovereign bonds

This paper quantifies liquidity and credit premia in German and French government bond yields. For this purpose, we estimate term structures of government-guaranteed agency bonds and exploit the fact that differences in their yields vis-à-vis government bonds are mainly driven by liquidity effects. Adding information on benchmark rates, we estimate liquidity and credit premia as latent factors in a state-space framework. The results allow us, first, to quantify the price impact of safe-haven flows on sovereign yields, which strongly affected very liquid bond markets during the recent financial crisis. Second, we quantify credit premia for highly rated governments, offering an important alternative to the information based on CDS markets.     

A re-examination of the impact of credit ratings and economic factors on state bond yields

In this article we re-examine the impact of credit ratings and economic factors on state bond yields using a two-step model. In the first step, we adopt an ordered probit technique to obtain consistent estimates of state bond default risk. In the second step, we estimate state bond risk premiums using a regression analysis with a categorized risk variable obtained from the first step. Similar to Terza (1987) and Hsiao (1983), the model involves a categorized ordinal explanatory (rating) variable. However, our two-step model deals with a case where category thresholds are unknown and dependent on economic factors. The model provides consistent estimates for the effects of ratings and economic factors on state bond yields. Contrary to previous findings, we find that state bond yields are mainly affected by fundamental economic variables.     

A multi-level and multi-actor approach to risk governance: a conceptual framework to support policy development for Ambrosia weed control

Invasive species such as Ambrosia (an annual weed) pose a biosecurity risk whose management depends on the knowledge, attitudes and practices of many stakeholders. It can therefore be considered a complex policy and risk governance problem. Complex policy problems are characterised by high uncertainty, multiple dimensions, interactions across different spatial and policy levels, and the involvement of a multitude of actors and organisations. This paper provides a conceptual framework for analysing the multi-level and multi-actor dimensions of Ambrosia management. Potential and existing public, private and public–private management strategies are identified to address the interests and needs of different actor groups across different levels. We conclude that policies that promote a mix of public and private Ambrosia management strategies may respond better to the needs and interests of different actor groups across different levels than a one-size-fits-all approach. However, multiple policy strategies need to be aligned in order to lead to synergies and spreading coherent messages to the public. Collaboration may enhance the likelihood of biosecurity management and risk governance of Ambrosia being adequately implemented and enforced.     

The price of going green: the role of greenness in green bond markets

In this paper, we empirically investigate how greenness information is priced in the green bond market. Our comparison of liquidity-adjusted yield premiums of green bonds versus synthetic conventional bonds indicates that, on average, there is no robust and significant yield premium or discount on green bonds. However, green bonds certified by an external reviewer enjoy a discount of about 6 bps. Furthermore, green bonds that obtain a Climate Bonds Initiative certificate show a discount of around 15 bps. The findings suggest that a universally accepted greenness measure can benefit the development of the green bond market.     

A sequential pricing framework for corporate securities: The case of rating-trigger step-up/-down bonds

We develop a sequential pricing framework in a continuous time cash flow model allowing for repeated valuation of different cash flow claims. One claim is valued until a prespecified boundary is hit, which is subsequently used as the new valuation starting point for the next claim. This highly flexible pricing framework is applied to the pricing of rating-trigger step-up/-down corporate bonds, the coupon payments of which depend on the issuing company’s credit rating. We present a simple closed-form pricing solution for this type of bonds including both a step-up and step-down threshold, as well as a lower default boundary.     

The systematic risk of corporate bonds: default risk,term risk,and index choice

In this paper, we empirically examine the systematic risk of corporate bonds in the Euro area. Based on a unique sample of 784 bonds from 1999 to 2010, we show that the systematic risk of constructed bond portfolios and individual bonds—measured against three different market indices—depends on credit quality, term risk, and index choice. A significant increase in systematic risk for lower-rated bonds is observed following the start of the financial crisis. In multi-factor models, bond portfolios load significantly on default and term risk, which are included as additional factors. Conducting Fama and MacBeth cross-sectional tests, we find that default and term risk are priced with economically relevant premiums that range from 0.35 to 0.62 % per month. Our results are robust to the inclusion of characteristics such as rating and time to maturity.     

Theory and practice of the proposed conceptual framework: Evidence from the field

We provide survey evidence of chartered accountants' perspectives on the proposed conceptual framework of the International Accounting Standards Board. Our survey obtains their views on the changes in the definitions of assets and liabilities, recognition criterion, and additional guidance in these areas, as well as issues relating to other comprehensive income, business model-based accounting, and choice of measurement basis. Our field evidence suggests broad consensus with respect to most of these changes. The areas that generate the most disagreement among our respondents relate to the removal of economic benefits in the proposed asset definition, the proposal to remove the minimum probability threshold from the asset recognition criterion, and the use of fair value as a measurement basis for certain difficult to measure assets. Overall, our results provide interesting insights regarding how chartered accountants view the proposed conceptual framework.