Market Efficiency and the Returns to Simple Technical Trading Rules: New Evidence from U.S. Equity Market and Chinese Equity Markets

Numerous studies in the finance literature have investigated technical analysis to determine its validity as an investment tool. This study is an attempt to explore whether some forms of technical analysis can predict stock price movement and make excess profits based on certain trading rules in markets with different efficiency level. To avoid using arbitrarily selected 26 trading rules as did by Brock, Lakonishok and LeBaron (1992) and later by Bessembinder and Chan (1998), this paper examines predictive power and profitability of simple trading rules by expanding their universe of 26 rules to 412 rules. In order to find out the relationship between market efficiency and excess return by applying trading rules, we examine excess return over periods in U.S. markets and also compare the excess returns between U.S. market and Chinese markets. Our results found that there is no evidence at all supporting technical forecast power by these trading rules in U.S. equity index after 1975. During the 1990s break-even costs turned to be negative, –0.06%, even failing to beat a buy-holding strategyin U.S. equity market. In comparison, our results provide support for the technical strategies even in the presence of trading cost in Chinese stock markets.     

Market Efficiency and Returns to Simple Technical Trading Rules: Further Evidence from U.S., U.K., Asian and Chinese Stock Markets

Tian, Wan and Guo (2002) explored the predictability and profitability of technical trading rules in markets with different efficiency levels; namely, the U.S. and China. In the case of the U.S. they found rules to have no predictability after 1975, whereas their results give support to technical trading rules having both predictability and profitability for the Chinese markets across the 1990's. The purpose of this paper is to extend the analysis of Tian et al. in two ways. First, to see if the conclusions extend to other markets – namely, the U.K., Hong Kong and Japan. Second, in the case of China, to examine whether the predictability and profitability of technical trading rules changed across the 1990's. On the basis of daily data Tian et al's results for the U.S. market are supported by the results for a number of the main developed markets where the technical trading rules had predictive ability during the 1970's that disappeared by the 1990's. Furthermore, the results suggest that while technical trading rules had short term predictive ability and profitability in the Chinese stock markets during the 1990's, this lessened as the decade progressed. JEL Classification: G14, G15     

美国信用违约互换市场动荡的机理与启示

本文首先阐述信用违约互换运作机理、功能和风险,分析了美国信用违约互换市场动荡的原因;指出信用违约互换与次级抵押贷款证券化的广泛挂购、合成以及投机与监管空白是造成市场动荡的重要原因;最后,在展望未来信用违约互换市场发展动向的基础上提出了中国发展信用违约互换市场的若干建议.     

Price Formation and Liquidity in the U.S. Treasury Market: The Response to Public Information

The arrival of public information in the U.S. Treasury market sets off a two-stage adjustment process for prices, trading volume, and bid-ask spreads. In a brief first stage, the release of a major macroeconomic announcement induces a sharp and nearly instantaneous price change with a reduction in trading volume, demonstrating that price reactions to public information do not require trading. The spread widens dramatically at announcement, evidently driven by inventory control concerns. In a prolonged second stage, trading volume surges, price volatility persists, and spreads remain moderately wide as investors trade to reconcile residual differences in their private views.     

混业经营:美国经验与中国实践

在金融业分业混业的问题上,国际金融业大体上可分为两种类型:一是混业全能型,二是分业型.从世界金融制度发展史看,绝大部分国家金融业最初的金融自然发展状态都是一种混业状态,此后走上了一条"混业经营--分业经营--混业经营"的发展道路.目前,混业经营已经成为金融业发展的潮流,中国金融业应借鉴国外经验,建立金融控股公司来实现我国向混业经营的平稳过度.     

Comparing U.S. and European market volatility responses to interest rate policy announcements

We examine the responses of U.S. (VIX) and German (VDAX) implied volatility indices to the announcement of interest rate policy decisions by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and the European Central Bank (ECB). We present new findings that indicate that VDAX declines on FOMC meeting days, a result that holds for nearly all announcement types. VDAX declines on ECB meeting days in which there is a negative rate surprise, or no surprise, and is unrelated to ECB meeting days otherwise. We confirm prior findings that VIX declines on FOMC meetings days regardless of the content of the meeting, but we also find that VIX is unrelated to ECB announcements. Results from our structural VAR analysis indicate that VIX (VDAX) responses to FOMC decisions are related to risk aversion (uncertainty). Taken collectively, our results indicate a prominent position for the FOMC in determining implied volatility levels worldwide.     

Step Interventions and Market Integration: Tests in the U.S., U.K., and Australian Property Markets

Market integration implies the existence of some long-run equilibrium relationship between markets such that movements in one market are transmitted to movements in another. It is an interesting observation of much of the literature regarding a possible relationship between real estate and stock markets that there is relatively scant attention given to the possible existence of structural breaks and the impact that such breaks may have on tests for market integration. Other research has shown that failure to take into account structural breaks in various macroeconomic data series may have yielded misleading results on cointegration (in particular, unit root tests on individual series). In this article we examine the issue of whether the stock market and real estate markets are stationary or nonstationary in the presence of structural breaks. We adopt the techniques of Perron (1989), Zivot and Andrews (1992), and Perron and Vogelsang (1992). Each of these tests is based on different assumptions and therefore may yield differing results. In general, the results do not support cointegration of domestic property and equity markets or cointegration of markets internationally.     

对欧、美市场经济地位标准的会计学解读

世界许多国家的反倾销法中都设立了市场经济地位标准,其中欧盟、美国的市场经济地位标准(简称欧标、美标)最具代表性和典型性。欧标与美标的核心内容都与会计标准息息相关。揭示欧标与美标的实质,有助于提高我国涉案企业的反倾销会计应诉水平。     

从立法看美国对金融外资的规制

美国构建了全球最为庞大的综合性金融外资法制体系.根据各项金融外资立法涉及的领域不同,美国既有针对金融外资实行常规监管的综合性立法,又有针对外资开展银行业务、证券业务以及保险业务予以规制的专门法律.美国已有立法对金融外资的规制遵循透明度原则、竞争原则和诚信原则,旨在促进金融市场的稳定.     

Seasonal variations in the U.S. Stock Market returns: 1927–1984

When the seasonal components of the monthly returns as opposed to the returns themselves, are examined over the 1927–1984 period, the Standard & Poor's 500 Composite Index (S&P 500) and the Center for Research in Security Prices (CRSP) value-weighted portfolio exhibit significant seasonality. Their seasonal behavior is quite similar to that of the smallest quintile of New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) stocks and the CRSP equally weighted portfolio during March through October. While January is strong for the two latter portfolios, December, November, and January appear to be consistently strong for the two former portfolios. The seasonal pattern has, however, changed substantially over time. While June and July returns experienced a significant drop in seasonal strength, March and April returns gained seasonal strength for all four portfolios from 1927–1958 to 1959–1984. These changes coincide in an inverse fashion with the shifts in interest rate seasonality.     

美国保险市场对外开放的发展及对中国的启示

美国是发达国家中完全开放保险市场的代表。作为世界上最大的保险市场,无论从市场化程度或本国保险业发育程度看,美国无疑是市场开放度最高的国家。本文通过对美国保险市场对外开放发展的考察,尤其是金融危机后美国保险市场对外开放现状的分析,总结其发展的规律和特点,并结合中国的实际情况,对保险市场对外开放进程进行了研究,得出对中国的...     

Risk-taking behavior in the U.S. thrift industry: Ownership structure and regulatory changes

We examine the relationship between U.S. thrift institution ownership structure and risk taking along with the impact of the Financial Institutions Reform, Recovery and Enforcement Act of 1989 (FIRREA) on this relationship. Our results, based on various indicators of risk, suggest that insider controlled thrifts were more likely to engage in risk taking prior to 1989 than were diversely held institutions. FIRREA seems to have curtailed much of this risk taking. We find inverse relationships between risk-taking and levels of institutional shareholdings. This along with other evidence suggests that the motive for risk-taking was not maximization of the ‘option’ value of shares as has been reported elsewhere. We also find evidence that entrenched managers may have generated significant private benefits.     

The Price of Future Liquidity: Time-Varying Liquidity in the U.S. Treasury Market

This paper examines the price differences between very liquid on-the-run U.S. Treasury securities and less liquid off-the-run securities over the on/off cycle. Comparing pairs of securities in time-series regressions allows us to disregard any fixed cross-sectional differences between securities. Also, since the liquidity of Treasury notes varies predictably over time, we can distinguish between current and future liquidity.We compare a variety of (microstructure-based) direct measures of liquidity to compare their effects on prices.We show that the liquidity premium depends primarily on the amount of remaining future liquidity.     

Macroeconomic Announcements and the Distribution of Price-Endings in the U.S. Treasury Market

We investigate how new information impacts quote clustering in the bond market. We find that clustering, along with quote activity, price volatility and bid-ask spreads, increases sharply in the minutes following releases of macroeconomic news. Each returns to near-normal levels within the hour. Effects are strongest for more liquid on-the-run notes and for the announcements typically associated with substantial information flow. The strong positive comovement of clustering, quote activity, price volatility, and bid-ask spreads supports the conclusion that innovations of these variables are endogenous to the arrival and incorporation of information into prices.     

Information Asymmetries and Security Market Design: An Empirical Study of the Secondary Market for U.S. Government Securities

This paper examines the empirical implications of an information asymmetry between primary and secondary dealers in the U.S. Government Securities market. This asymmetry arises because primary dealers are permitted to trade through all brokers operating in the marketplace while secondary dealers are restricted to trade through only a subset of brokers. Brokers distribute valuable information over video screens to their trading clients including dealers' up-to-date bid-ask spreads and recent transaction prices. As such, all brokers' video screen information is available to primary dealers, while only a subset of brokers' information is available to secondary dealers. Empirical analyses detect the resulting information asymmetry.     

Mood and Judgment of Subjective Probabilities: Evidence from the U.S. Index Option Market

Numerous psychological studies show that weather conditions affect people'smood and that mood states are correlated with people's subjective evaluationof future probabilities. In this paper, a new approach is developed and assetmarket data are employed to test the mood-subjective probability relation. Cloudcover and precipitation volume serve as two mood proxies. Our statistical analysissuggests that bad mood states are characterized by investors placing higher probabilitieson adverse events.     

On the Market Timing of Hedging: Evidence from U.S. Oil and Gas Producers

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - Using a hand-collected data, we provide evidence of extensive use of commodity derivative in hedging among U.S. oil and gas producers. We find large...     

Market Discipline in the Governance of U.S. Bank Holding Companies: Monitoring vs. Influencing

Market discipline is an article of faith among financial economists, and the use of marketdiscipline as a regulatory tool is gaining credibility. Effective market discipline involvestwo distinct components: security holders' ability to accurately assess the condition of afirm (monitoring) and their ability to cause subsequent managerial actions to reflect thoseassessments (influence). Substantial evidence supports the existence of market monitoring.However, the existing evidence about market influence involves relatively rare events suchas management turnover. This paper seeks evidence that U.S. bank holding companies'security price changes reliably influence subsequent managerial actions. Although weidentify some patterns consistent with beneficial market influences, our methodology doesnot provide strong evidence that stock or (especially) bond investors regularly influencemanagerial actions. Day-to-day market influence remains, for the moment, more a matterof faith than of empirical evidence.     

Price Clustering in the U.S. Dollar/Taiwan Dollar Swap Market

Price clustering in financial markets is pervasive. Using transaction‐level data from the world's largest financial market, this study is the first to examine price clustering behavior in the foreign exchange swap market. In addition to existing hypotheses, we investigate new determinants of price clustering including the expected return, contract liquidity, and trader's identity. The results support both negotiation and price resolution hypotheses. We find a positive effect from the level of expected return on price clustering. Markets with greater liquidity experience reduced clustering. Transactions involving domestic banks have less clustering suggesting an information advantage over foreign banks.     

U.S. Airways merger: A strategic variance analysis of changes in post-merger performance

This case provides students the opportunity to apply strategic variance analysis (SVA) methodology in analyzing the performance changes realized in an airline merger. The U.S. Airways–America West merger provides an example of a complex, strategic action that simultaneously impacts firm size, unit pricing and costs, efficiency, and capacity for the combining airlines. This merger provides a rich example for the analysis since it combines U.S. Airways, a higher cost network airline that is geographically focused on the Eastern U.S., with America West, a low cost airline operating primarily along the Western U.S. The case includes merger and acquisition (M&A) theory discussing market power vs. efficiency motives for mergers and discusses the role of the U.S. Department of Justice and Federal Trade Commission in evaluating M&As and their impact on markets. The case asks students to serve as consultants applying the SVA methodology to the past U.S. Airways–America West merger and provide conclusions.