Market-based incentives in South Africa and Zambia: A comparative analysis of the clean development mechanism

The clean development mechanism (CDM) is intended to serve as a market-based incentive that is both efficient and cost-effective for eligible developing countries. The analysis contained in this article explores why, in theory, such an attractive incentive opportunity has been so under-utilised in sub-Saharan Africa. The paper compares the experience of the CDM in South Africa and Zambia. These two Southern African countries were selected because of their varying levels of statehood, South Africa being an emerging, middle-income economy while Zambia is classified as a least developed country. General challenges affecting the CDM were identified in the literature to be awareness, capacity, eligibility and access to finance. The paper then compares how these overarching issues specifically impact the CDM experience in South Africa and Zambia. The paper finds that common complexities relating to the CDM have varying implications for eligible host countries at different levels of statehood.     

基于实物期权的石油项目投资决策研究

论文结合石油项目的具体特征,在价格不确定条件下研究石油开发投资决策背后的内在机制与路径。运用实物期权方法构建石油项目投资评估与决策模型,详细讨论各种不确定因素对石油项目投资价值与油价阈值的影响。在此基础上讨论了对石油价格首次达到阈值的期望时间与概率,对于企业把握投资时机具有重要的参考价值。     

项目投融资中的地方政府行为及角色界定

以项目为主体的分散型地方政府项目投融资模式下,行政主导的投融资决策及政企合一经管主体的法律地位和行为准则界定不清,主体间有差异乃至相互冲突的目标与需求必然造成政府项目投融资和经管主体内部的矛盾,项目投融资及经管整体效率低下,难以实现市场价值。应创建投融资和经管主体法律地位和行为目标明晰的统一投融资平台,引导市场资源参与政府投融资项目,促进公共资源的有效配置和利用,以市场化的运作模式提供公共服务。     

Reporting Bias and Monitoring in Clean Development Mechanism Projects*

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is a flexible carbon market mechanism managed by the United Nations. The program grants tradable carbon emissions credits (Certified Emission Reductions) for carbon‐reducing projects in developing countries. A project can only be admitted to the program if it is not financially profitable, and thus would not take place without the emission credits granted through the CDM. In this paper, we examine how monitoring reduces incentives of companies to bias the reported expected financial viability of potential CDM projects to gain admission to the program. We find that reported rates of return, which are a key factor for admission to the program, tend to be downwardly biased and are negatively associated with the expected benefits stemming from forecasted greenhouse gas reductions. However, monitoring from various sources mitigates some of the distorted incentives and related reporting bias. Furthermore, the monitoring effect becomes much stronger after 2008, when the CDM Executive Board implemented a series of measures to strengthen the additionality testing that provides guidance for program applications.     

International environmental policy and poverty alleviation

We investigate how alternative national and international policies and circumstances impact the Clean Development Mechanism’s (CDM) contribution to sustainable development and the pursuit of poverty eradication goals in developing countries. In particular, we focus on the importance of technology-specific versus technology-neutral environmental regulations in the project host regions. We also consider alternative CDM benefit-sharing arrangements between the host and client regions. An analytical impure-public-good model is developed which considers CDM projects as a conditional transfer exerting price and income effects. These, in turn, induce changes in the use of environmental technologies, and with it global and local environmental protection levels. Aided by model simulations using empirical data for China and the European Union, we seek to assess conditions in which CDM transfers are more favourable towards improved environmental protection and welfare in developing regions.     

AN ANALYSIS OF INVENTORY INVESTMENT IN SOUTH AFRICA

This paper describes the evolution of inventory investment in South Africa over the past two decades, and identifies the factors influencing inventory investment over this period. An econometric model of inventory investment in South Africa, based on the production smoothing approach, is constructed. The results of the model indicate that actual sales, production, unfilled orders, price levels, interest rates and expected sales have an influence on the evolution of inventory investment. These variables are directly or indirectly influenced by macroeconomic policy decisions and through their influence on inventory investment they also influence changes in gross domestic product. Therefore, prior information on the factors that influence inventory investment contributes to explaining changes in gross domestic product and may help to prepare more accurate short‐term forecasts of overall economic activity.     

清洁发展机制(CDM)项目在中国区域分布结构——基于中国各省市面板数据的实证研究

清洁发展机制(CDM)是我国实现低碳经济发展的需要。文章考察了我国2007-2012年31个省、市、自治区的CDM项目数量,借鉴离散型非线性模型——负二项式模型,运用面板数据对CDM在中国区域分布结构进行回归分析。结果表明,地区人均GDP、电力消费、第三产业发展水平以及外商投资对CDM项目分布结构存在影响:地区人均GDP和第三产业发展水平对CDM项目分布存在负向影响;电力消费对CDM项目分布存在正向影响;外商投资与CDM项目则存在非线性U型关系。最后,从我国碳减排、碳交易市场建立方面给出政策启示。     

Localisation barriers to trade: The case of South Africa’s renewable energy independent power program

South Africa’s Renewable Energy Independent Power Projects Procurement Program (REIPPPP) has been hailed as one of the most successful programmes of its kind, contracting 92 renewable energy projects totalling 6 328 MW and US$20.5 billion since its inception in 2011. Despite this success, the programme’s use of non-price factors such as local jobs, local black ownership, local content, and local community ownership in bid evaluation has generated criticism and controversy. Lessons learned in other countries about how and when to use policies like import substitution to promote sustainable economic development seem not to have been fully incorporated by the REIPPPP. We therefore offer a cautionary note that dramatic and impressive localisation results are not inevitable – especially considering the size of the South African market and accompanying investment uncertainties – and that there is bound to be a trade-off between price and non-price factors in these kinds of competitive procurement programmes.     

中日一次能源消耗的碳排放及影响因素对比分析

中国和日本是一次能源消费大国，煤、石油和天然气消费比例较高，温室气体排放量较大。受国内能源强度、能源消费结构以及能源效率水平等因素的影响，日本国内碳减排成本远高于我国。《京都议定书》规定的国际碳减排机制为日本实现温室气体境外低成本减排提供了平台，也为我国带来了项目融资和引进环境技术的新机遇。但是，中日清洁发展机制环境合作的实践表明，国际碳减排机制对日本等发达国家实现碳减排目标的贡献较大，而对我国碳排放量的控制贡献较小。我国要想从根本上改善能源消费结构、实现碳减排，必须走低碳经济的发展道路。     

由CER产品性质探究我国碳交易发展

低碳经济作为世界经济发展的新方向,越来越受到人们关注。中国作为目前世界上最大的CDM供应方,碳交易市场潜力巨大。本文通过对于CDM交易中CER产品的价值、价格、风险分析,针对我国碳交易发展,提出加强赤道银行建设、增强产品异质性、提高议价能力、摆脱产业链下游地位、开创衍生品市场等对策,其根本目的是加快研发环保减排技术、提高国民节能环保意识、增强我国在国际市场上的话语权。     

Stock Market Development, Liquidity Constraint and Investment: A Case of Korean Jaebol and Non-Jaebol Manufacturing Firms in the 1980s

The Korean stock market experienced sudden growth in mid-1986. Since then, Korean firms have begun to rely on the stock market as a reliable source of funds. This paper analyses the change in financing behaviour after the 1986 Korean stock market development. Many researchers argue that in developed countries, the liquidity constraint binds a firm's investment decisions. What then is the effect of liquidity on firms in developing countries? These issues will be examined by using a Tobin’s Q model of investment. A total of 171 Korean manufacturing firms, both Jaebol and Non-Jaebol, are investigated for the 1980s. Most empirical studies have not shown an economically large and significant Q effect when cash flow is used in the model. However, empirical results here show that with a strong liquidity effect, Q is large and statistically significant, implying a moderate adjustment cost.     

中国碳排放强度变动趋势分析及预测

以二氧化碳为主的温室气体导致全球气候变暖已为世界所公认,而中国的碳排放已经成为国内外研究与讨论的热点问题之一。2009年哥本哈根气候变化会议上,中国向世界做出承诺：到2020年中国二氧化碳排放强度比2005年下降40%~45%。本文基于1990~2009年中国碳排放强度的历史数据,分析其变动情况并预测2020年是否能完成减排40%~45%的承诺。最后提出了为实现减排任务的承诺提出政策性建议。     

The micro-economic effects of financial market structure: evidence from 20th century North American steel firms

This paper analyzes the historical relationship between domestic financial institutions, firm level financing decisions, and average capital costs in a sample of US and Canadian firms from a large and economically important manufacturing industry—primary steel production. We find that national capital market characteristics and firm specific characteristics were important determinants of 20th century US and Canadian steel firms’ financing decisions. We also show that, despite source-specific price differences, average capital costs were approximately equal in the two countries, and the firms’ financing decisions were important determinants of these average capital costs. We conclude that firms structured their balance sheets in an effort to exploit the idiosyncratic features of their domestic financial institutions, and thereby, minimize their average capital costs.     

成本收益差异的房地产不对称双头期权博弈模型分析

文章运用不对称双寡头期权博弈模型考察在房地产开发项目中企业的策略投资决策。模型中,房地产开发企业的项目投资有固定的建设周期,项目产生现金流是在建成以后;并且,投资具有投资成本先动优势和投资收益后动优势,即追随企业的投资成本和租金流均高于领先企业。分析表明,建设周期、投资成本、投资成本先动优势、垄断投资收益、后动投资收益、商品房市场需求波动度等因素都影响企业的投资决策。存在投资成本差异的阈值,将两企业均衡投资策略划分为先占均衡、序列均衡和等待均衡。     

Income and Price Elasticities of Demand in South Africa: An Application of the Linear Expenditure System

This paper investigates the expenditure patterns of South African households using detailed cross‐sectional expenditure and price data that varies across region and time. Linear expenditure system parameter estimates are used to calculate income and price elasticities for a number of product categories at different points of the income distribution. We find substantial variation in the price and income elasticities of demand for items across the income distribution, with the bottom quartile being extremely sensitive to increases in the price of food and clothing items, and the top quartile being as sensitive as households in developed countries.     

股市泡沫与公司投融资行为

股市的泡沫会如何影响公司的融资和投资决策?本文以一个模型讨论了这个问题。分析结果表明,当公司管理层认识到泡沫并能利用泡沫的时候,会表现出股权偏好的特征,投资方面,从外部投资者的角度来看,公司显得在某些项目上投资不足,在某些项目上投资过度。同时,本文的结论还有助于解释公司在上市后的业绩下滑现象。     

The Relationship Between Price Stability and Financial Stability: Evidence From Major Emerging Economies

We examine the relationship between price stability and financial stability for major emerging economies using a Markov regime-switching model. Empirical results suggest that monetary policy is consistent with the Taylor rule in all countries except for India and all countries followed both low and high inflation targeting monetary policy regimes. Low inflation targeting regime seems to be more persistent and has higher duration than high inflation targeting regimes except for Indonesia and South Africa. All countries seem to have had financial stability concerns when they formulated their monetary policy as the coefficient of the financial stress index is statistically significant at least in one regime. Overall the results suggest that Taylor rule-based monetary policies have been implemented to various degrees in major emerging economies to achieve economic stability, price stability, and financial stability.     

Key issues in regional growth and integration in Southern Africa

ABSTRACT

The decade to 2015 saw rapid growth in trade between Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries. Much of this growth reflected South African exports to its neighbours of diversified manufactured goods to meet growing urban consumption and to supply inputs to mining and infrastructure. While most SADC countries, aside from South Africa, grew quite rapidly over this period, their exports remained oriented to a narrow range of minerals and agricultural commodities destined to go outside the region. Drawing from a series of sectoral studies, we assess key regional issues including the investment and production decisions of firms whose operations stretch across borders, and consider the implications for a bottom-up integration agenda that could build productive capabilities across countries. Our evaluation highlights the importance of the spread of supermarkets, the need to address transport and logistics, and value chains whose competitive advantages are inherently regional, as in the cases of poultry and mining.     

模拟统一碳排放市场的建立对我国经济的影响——基于DSGE模型

本文采用基于中国经济的DSGE模型,模拟在技术和政策的外生冲击下,建立统一碳排放市场对总产出、环境质量和CER实际价格产生的影响。分析结果表明,在政府制定好CER审核标准的前提下,短期至中期,建立统一碳排放市场具有减小总产出波动、提高环境质量以及减小CER实际价格波动的作用。而在长期,建立统一碳排放市场并不会对总产出和CER实际价格产生明显影响,却对环境有改善的作用。同时建立统一碳排放市场将会：使得财政政策的效果与未建立统一碳排放市场时的效果相反;要求政府对CER审核标准的定制更加谨慎,以应对清洁型技术可能带来的部分不利影响;对货币政策效果影响不明显。     

Can integrated infrastructure investment plans contribute to more effective public spending? The case of Mozambique

All countries, especially developing countries with limited financial resources, face difficult decisions in prioritising public funds for investment projects in the face of multiple demands in order to achieve strategic public goals. Effective investment often requires coordination between different institutions and the management of political pressure to divert investment in support of private interests. It also requires the identification of appropriate sources of funds for different purposes. The preparation of an integrated infrastructure investment plan (IIIP) that uses structured approaches to review investment proposals has been suggested, and adopted in some cases, as an instrument to address these challenges and bridge the gap between national planning and sectoral budgeting. This article considers the experience of Mozambique in deploying an IIIP as well as some recent events and concludes that the instrument may be helpful as part of a system of investment planning and allocation but that it has significant limitations.