碳中和背景下碳中和概念股的投资机会与投资策略

近年来,碳中和概念股成为A股市场上的投资热点.虽然中国碳减排面临的形势严峻,但碳中和概念股的投资却面临前所未有的政策机遇,清洁能源、绿色生产和消费、园林板块和碳捕集利用与封存(CCUS)以及碳交易等板块的投资机会值得关注.回避伪碳中和概念股、长期投资和借道基金轻松理财是应有的投资策略.     

关于绿色物流管理的若干思考

从流通体系发展的趋势入手，分析了企业物流活动中的非绿色因素和有关绿色物流管理的基础理论。明确了绿色物流之内涵及推行必要性，探讨了中国实施绿色物流管理的策略与途径。     

中国股市风格转换投资盈利性测度

为了验证中国股市是否存在小盘股和大盘股择时投资并具预测价值,通过选取2005年3月至2013年7月巨潮小盘指数和巨潮大盘指数月度数据和周数据,采用logit分类选择模型,分别估计了一元和二元分类模型,并比较预测效果。经研究表明:国内风格转换非常频繁,一元模型预测效果优于二元模型,在考虑交易成本的情形下,月度数据经调整转换策略以便降低转换频率,证明存在超额收益;但周数据的风格转换收益锐减,低于小盘股买入即持有策略,甚至在完美预期下,风格转换策略绩效也不如持续持有小盘股。因此,可以认为国内投资存在结构性因素,导致投资者偏爱小盘股。     

Intensive judicial oversight and corporate green innovations: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China

The deterioration of pollution problem has increased environmental disputes. However, little is known about the relationship between intensive judicial oversight and corporate green innovations. Regarding the establishment of environmental courts in China as an almost ideal quasi-natural experiment, this paper identifies the impact and mechanism of environmental courts on corporate green innovations. We find that: (1) environmental courts have a significant positive impact on green innovations. However, by employing instrument variable (IV) strategy to alleviate the endogenous issues, we find environmental courts mainly promote the quantity of green innovations; (2) the positive effect on green innovations is more salient for firms in the industry with high pollution intensity, state-owned enterprises, and firms in regions with stricter mass supervision; (3) environmental courts can improve the efficiency of dealing with environmental disputes and alleviate the collaboration between government and firms. Therefore, it could promote corporate green innovations with the increasing pressure for pollution abatement; (4) environmental courts could cause additional costs to firms, such as crowding out non-green innovations and decreasing corporate TFP in the short term. Meanwhile, the establishment of environmental courts could also achieve specific social welfare effects, which is conducive to improving local environmental quality. This paper provides implications for judicial oversight of regulators on environmental protection.     

Carbon capture and storage investment strategy towards the dual carbon goals

This paper develops a real option model combined with the Monte Carlo simulation to analyze the impact of the “dual carbon goals” on the CCS investment timing in China. The trajectory of CO₂ prices is predicted to follow a geometric Brownian motion with jump. The CO₂ prices are predicted on the basis of three scenarios: high, medium, and low shocks, respectively. Furthermore, the real option method is adopted to derive the appropriate incentive schemes and corresponding target CO₂ prices that sustain CCS operations to assist China’s dual carbon goals. Notably, portfolios of two government incentive policies are compared, including clean electricity tariff and carbon tax. The results show that building an efficient national carbon emissions trading scheme (ETS) is crucial to catalyzing the deployment of CCS technology, shortening the waiting time of CCS investment to 5.9 years at best. Government incentives could further bring the threshold CO₂ prices down and the expected waiting time of CCS investment forward.     

绿色民航发展的三方演化博弈研究

为推动我国民航绿色发展，实现碳达峰、碳中和目标，通过构建政府、机场企业和民航运输企业三方的演化博弈模型，研究不同情境下各方的稳定演化策略。数值仿真分析了关键参数变化对主体策略的影响。研究发现，政府的激励措施和惩罚力度能促进绿色发展，但补贴过高或过低不利于民航运输企业绿色策略。因此，根据机场企业和民航运输企业成本结构，建议政府制定差异化激励政策，有助于实现绿色民航的可持续发展。     

Motivation of Chinese commercial banks to issue green bonds: Financing costs or regulatory arbitrage?

This paper analyzes the reasons for the rapid increase in the scale of green bonds issued by Chinese commercial banks in recent years from the perspective of financing costs and regulatory arbitrage. Our empirical results show that the financing cost mechanism cannot explain this increase since the financing costs of green bonds are not lower than those of non-green financial bonds. Furthermore, commercial banks with low asset liquidity engage in regulatory arbitrage to take advantage of the convenience of green bond financing permission to supplement their liquidity. Our results imply that the regulatory arbitrage mechanism is a very important motivation for commercial banks to issue green bonds. To reduce this motivation and ensure the healthy and sustainable development of the green bond market, green ratings of projects should be linked with financing costs as a way to form a positive feedback incentivizing mechanism for green project financers.     

医药行业投资收益率与企业社会责任关系研究

利用长春长生疫苗事件作为外生冲击因素,研究投资者对医药行业上市公司的企业社会责任(CSR)的态度。根据研究结果,标准化平均累积超额收益率(CASAR)在事件窗口期间显著为正。根据多元线性回归分析,CSR和CASAR呈显著负相关;将事件窗口分为事发前与事发后,在事发之前没有显著的关系,在事件发生日之后存在显著的负相关关系。该研究同时提出了相关建议。第一,政府和监管者应该发布适当的政策,以改善各公司的企业社会责任活动,特别是在医药行业。第二,政府监督作为市场经济中的"守夜人"的作用也是必要和有效的。     

多聚类视角下的碳达峰路径探索与趋势研判——基于广东省21个地级市面板数据的分析

向绿色、低碳方向转型是全球经济、贸易、技术、国际规则等发展的大趋势,我国已承诺2030年实现碳达峰,2060年实现碳中和。广东作为经济发展的领头羊,同时也是能源利用大省,探索广东模式降碳路径,可有力助推粤港澳大湾区乃至全国双碳目标的早日实现。文章以广东21个地级市作为研究层面,充分考虑影响城市碳达峰趋势的静态和动态因素,采用基于蒙特卡洛方法的K-means聚类算法,全面分析广东21个地级市在GDP总量、进出口贸易、重点能耗三大视角下的不同分类结果,进一步研判不同类别城市的碳达峰趋势。结果表明,基于GDP视角的广东城市碳达峰类型可划分为4类,据其特征概括为绿色示范型、降碳潜力型、节能改造型、达峰攻坚型。基于进出口贸易和重点能耗视角,绿色示范型、降碳潜力型城市始终不变,而后两类均发生不同的聚类变化。最后,针对不同视角下的不同类型城市,建议广东走包容性碳达峰道路,鼓励"绿色示范型"和"降碳潜力型"城市先达峰,做好能源结构和产业结构优化,引领消费侧低碳转型,形成示范效应;同时,允许部分需要继续大力发展和振兴经济的"节能改造型"和"达峰攻坚型"城市做好节能技改,布局低碳产业,在经济社会"小步追赶"的过程中错位达峰,形成有序可控的碳达峰梯度。     

“双碳”目标下企业绿色转型发展的促进策略

实现碳减排是应对全球气候变化的有效路径。生态优先绿色发展的主旋律、“双碳”目标的提出、环境规制不断完善的制度环境,都要求企业加快绿色转型发展。在对企业绿色转型发展中理念创新、环境规制、资源利用、环境影响及技术创新等问题进行理论阐释的基础上,提出了推动企业绿色转型发展的路径:明确理念目标,坚定企业绿色转型发展的方向;升级产业结构,确保企业绿色转型发展的质量;优化能源结构,提高企业绿色转型发展的效率;创新绿色技术,提升企业绿色转型发展的能力;完善体制机制,保障企业绿色转型发展的可持续。     

基于Stackelberg博弈理论下风险偏好对可持续供应链风险协调策略

针对中美贸易摩擦下供需双方需求波动现状,考虑顾客风险型偏好因素对可持续供应链利润分配的影响,采用Stackelberg博弈理论,建立可持续供应链协同的集中决策模型和分散决策模型,通过数值模拟,对比分析风险偏好对绿色供应链和非绿色供应链的影响,使利润决策达到帕累托最优。结果表明：顾客风险型偏好有助于在环境动荡下选择信息共享机制远远超过了信息不共享策略所带来的利润;在动荡的社会背景下,风险偏好型决策者更愿意选择绿色供应链产品来满足自己的需求。该研究为可持续供应链风险韧性机理和演化过程提供理论支撑与方法借签。     

迈向“零碳”的日本氢能源社会发展研究

当前,中国面临着实现"碳排放目标"和"经济社会发展全面绿色转型"的双重紧迫任务。面临相似压力的日本选择了"氢"这种极富技术挑战但应用前景广阔的替代能源,并雄心勃勃地发展"氢能源社会",其最新进展举世瞩目。日本不但在氢能源技术突破和相关绿色产业链建设中积累了诸多经验,更重要的是凭借着绿色治理框架,通过政府、企业、社会组织等多主体的合作协同,形成了能源升级中引导企业持续技术研发和市场化推进的治理策略、"刚柔相济"的治理模式以及不同阶段差异化的治理路径。这些实践不但为中国相关现实课题的解决提供了参考,也对绿色治理理论的深化提供了契机。     

新发展格局下电能承载质量的分异演化与耦合协调

电能是人类发展史上不可或缺的资源。新发展格局下，实现碳中和等目标必须合理利用和发展电能资源，电能承载质量的研究对于合理配置电能资源、达到碳中和和绿色发展具有重要的理论和实践意义。从“结构”“经济效益”“能耗”“支持度”4个维度构建指标体系，从电能承载质量的时空分异及演化、子系统的耦合协调性展开研究，从全国及3大区域电能承载水平的地区差异以及4个维度的发展差异方面提出应对策略。     

Infrastructure implications of a green economy transition in the Western Cape Province of South Africa: A system dynamics modelling approach

In order to meet future goals in reducing the resulting carbon emissions from transport networks, vast investment in the development of a more energy-efficient and sustainable infrastructure is required. This study investigates the infrastructure implications of a green economy transition in the Western Cape Province of South Africa with a particular focus on the transport sector. Utilising a system dynamics modelling approach, the research effort aimed to improve understanding of how technical, economic, political, social, and environmental factors interact, particularly in the context of the uncertainties encountered during this transition. The key findings of the research indicate that investment in a better public transport system, as well as shifting the movement of freight onto the rail network, would deliver long-term positive effects, including a possible carbon emission reduction of up to 17.89%.     

The Simple Analytics of Sudden Stops

Currency crises in emerging and developing countries have often been characterized by “sudden stops” of capital flows. A variety of mechanisms have been adduced to explain the emergence of this phenomenon. This paper integrates these mechanisms into a simple and transparent analytical model in which currency mismatches, large current account deficits, and large stocks of short-term debt interact with low reserve stocks to generate dual equilibria. In this context, the “panic” equilibrium is characterized by a currency crisis, a sudden stop, and an output collapse. The potential for various policies to avoid this outcome is explored, as are the implications of the analysis for reserve accumulation.     

碳减排对省际绿色全要素生产率的影响研究

探索提升绿色全要素生产率的动力源泉是推动经济高质量发展的重要抓手。实现“双碳”目标升级为国家战略,碳减排行动也成为地区应对气候变化、保障经济可持续发展的关键路径。基于 2002 至 2020 年省际面板数据,选取混合距离 EBM模型测度绿色全要素生产率,从排放、效率、非化石能源、气候绩效等多维度定量评价碳减排发展水平,采用固定效应模型和中介效应模型,分析碳减排发展对绿色全要素生产率的作用机理和效应。研究表明：总体来看,碳减排发展显著提升绿色全要素生产率;分区域来看,在西部、经济欠发达地区,碳减排对绿色全要素生产率的促进作用更显著;中介机制检验显示,碳减排能够通过提升能源效率、发展绿色金融间接促进绿色全要素生产率的增长。研究结论为地区差异化减排与低碳经济发展提供了重要启示。     

双碳目标下中国的环境会计变革与实现路径探究

双碳目标提出以来，碳达峰和碳中和的目标要求被正式纳入中国经济社会发展的长期规划，环境会计的理论和实务研究也需要进行相应的变革和调整。通过对企业生产过程中降碳措施的具体执行情况进行目标分解和因素归集，分析得出当前中国的环境会计变革仍然存在碳会计标准不统一、环境规则不完善、信息披露质量低、专业人才缺乏等问题。结合双碳目标的内在要求，从碳会计准则、环境会计体系建设、信息披露机制、人才培养等方面提出解决方案。     

市场导向的绿色国防科技创新体系机理与路径研究

碳达峰和碳中和是绿色技术创新体系的重要内容，也是绿色国防科技创新体系构建的重要内容。绿色国防科技创新体系具有进度紧迫性、市场导向性、双重导向性以及调控机制的复杂性等特殊属性，需要坚持市场导向来推动绿色国防科技创新体系构建。强调市场导向的绿色国防科技创新体系内在机理就是要借助市场的供求机制、竞争机制和价格机制来优化企业绿色国防科技创新活动的效率，面对市场失灵的现实情况，要从绿色技术、绿色产业和绿色金融3个维度进行考量，推动创新链、产业链和资金链“无缝衔接，有机融合”。构建高效的绿色国防科技创新体系要克服制约因素，加强绿色创新思想引导与目标引领，建立满足市场需求的绿色技术供给体系，推动绿色国防科技创新成果转化，加强绿色国防知识产权保护，创造良好的绿色国防科技创新环境。     

Using green technology for a better tomorrow: How enterprises and government utilize the carbon trading system and incentive policies

This unique study focuses on how the carbon trading system (CTS), stakeholder concerns and innovation incentive policies all combine to effect enterprises' green technology innovation. Using a three-dimension system, this study includes green output level, green output proportion and green total factor productivity. Utilizing a DID model of an unbalanced panel, we investigate how government and enterprise work together better to achieve carbon emission targets. The main findings are as follows: (1) Enterprises are displaying a high level of concern with environmental information disclosure and therefore their CTS will have a more significant impact on green technology output and the proportion of this green output. In contrast, government concerns about decarbonization with CTS have uncertain effects on the three dimensions of green technology innovation. (2) CTS Fiscal subsidies and R&D funding are strong ways to improve enterprises' green technology output. However, the best way to improve green technology output, green output proportion and green total factor productivity is with tax returns. When tax returns increase 1%, the green output level increases 1.5% under the CTS. (3) This study, utilizing data from the impact of different implementation modes of innovations incentive policies, shows that inclusive innovation policies make CTS's combined effects more significant than differentiated policies.     

农业绿色发展路径及其“十四五”取向

随着农业资源环境问题的凸显,绿色发展成为农业发展的主流。基于对农业绿色发展关键要素的界定,提出农业绿色发展的三个阶段:去污,即农业生产过程的清洁化;提质,实现产地绿色化和产品优质化;增效,绿色成为农业高质量发展的内生动力。近年来,农业绿色发展取得了一定成就,但也存在政策分散、数据基础不牢、农业补贴制度改革进展缓慢、行政执法“一刀切”等问题。“十四五”时期,应以绿色发展驱动农业高质量发展,通过抓落实提高政策实效;注重摸清家底,摒弃部分无数据支撑的量化目标;加强对执法和行政的督察巡查,对政策执行过失加大问责力度;不断深化农业支持保护制度,向绿色生态方向改革。