Pollution abatement costs and technical changes under different environmental regulations

Balancing economic growth and environmental protection is a global issue that requires both scientific and economic consideration. In this study, we employed a joint production model that accounted for both favorable and unfavorable outputs to calculate the changes in pollution abatement costs (PACs) and the decomposition of SO₂ emissions in China's industrial sector from 2001– to 2015. Command-and-control and tradable permit environmental regulation scenarios were specified to assess PACs and changes in these costs associated with changes in technology, input, and unfavorable output production. Our empirical results show that the PACs increased by 0.06% and 0.34% under command-and-control and tradable permit scenarios, respectively. Further analyses of these changes indicated that regulated technology grew faster than unregulated under both scenarios; overall, command-and-control regulations were more conducive to green technological innovations. Both types of environmental regulation reduced industrial SO₂ emissions, and the difference between them was minimal. Under the two scenarios, the pollution emissions intensity decreased. Moreover, because the tradable permit policy improved favorable output production via the optimal allocation of resources, the intensity of pollution emissions was significantly lower. As there were advantages to both regulatory options, their balanced application is vital in the short-run. In the long-term, measures should be taken to ensure the full trading of SO₂ emission rights. The focus of environmental policies should gradually shift to an emissions trading system to achieve the balanced development of China's environment and economy.     

Estimating the economic cost of China's new desulfur policy during her gradual accession to WTO: The case of industrial SO2 emission

To understand the potential impacts of China's accession to WTO on her new desulphur policy (gradual reduction of 10% of annual SO₂ emission by 2005 with respect to that of 2000), we construct a CGE model in which SO₂ emission is directly linked to energy input consumption in production. The model equally considers the substitution possibility between energies of different SO₂ effluent ratios by including energy as labor and capital in the constant elasticity of transformation production function. The positive externality of trade in China's economy is also included. This model is then calibrated into a 55-sector Chinese SAM for the year 1997. Four policy simulations (Business as Usual, Openness policy only, desulfur policy only, and the combination of openness and desulfur policy) are made for the period from 1997 to 2005. The results show that the environmental impact of trade, though proven to be “negative”, stays rather modest. This is owing to the industrial composition transformation that deviates the specialization of the Chinese economy towards labor-intensive sectors under the new trade liberalization process. We do not find evidence for the “pollution haven” hypothesis. Seemingly ambitious, the new desulphur policy will only bring small economic growth loss. The pollution reduction objective will be realized mainly by substitution between polluting and less or non-polluting energies. The combination of trade liberalization and pollution control policy seems to give China more flexibility in adapting her economy to the new desulphur objective. Considering these different aspects together, the total economic loss due to the new desulphur policy will be limited to only − 0.26% under the presence of trade liberalization.     

Economic policy uncertainty and household consumption: Evidence from Chinese households

We find that households reduce their consumption in response to higher economic policy uncertainty (EPU). Compared with lower income households, high income group is more severely affected which can be explained by the portfolio choice of illiquid asset and liquid asset. In addition, the uncertainty effect is more pronounced among older, wealthier, well-educated and urban households. The impact of EPU on household consumption is also persistent. Holding more liquid asset and commercial insurance represent important channels in mitigating the negative effect of EPU on household consumption.     

Pollution abatement efforts: a regional analysis of the Chinese industrial sector

Although China has had rapid economic growth, it has borne a more significant economic burden or loss because of environmental pollution. However, the country has addressed this problem with various pollution abatement efforts. Some prior studies analysed the relationship between such efforts and pollution emissions, but did not show how these efforts affect pollution reduction. This study investigates the effects of pollution abatement efforts on industrial SO_X, NO_X and CO₂ emissions in the context of pollution reduction in China by panel data for 29 provinces from 1995 to 2010. The empirical results are as follows. First, emissions have increased rapidly in the 2000s. Second, rapid income growth has led to a greater increase in emissions. Third, pollution abatement would assist improvements in environmental quality. Further, this study reveals that abatement efforts affect emissions through the adoption of pollution removal measures.     

Macroeconomic effects of uncertainty shocks: Evidence from Korea

This paper proposes a new measure of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) for Korea by fine-tuning the keywords and exploiting information drawn from a wide variety of local newspapers. The uniqueness of our new EPU index lies mainly in the fact that it uses a set of keywords that correspond much more closely to actual language use and better reflect the economic environment of Korea, which is classified as a small open economy. After shocks to EPU being identified, we employ these shocks to estimate the impulse responses using local projections. Unlike the existing measure, our results show that shocks to EPU lead to a significant decline in macroeconomic aggregates such as output, consumption, investment, and employment. Thus our results suggest a refinement of the EPU index in general for other countries accordingly. We also develop policy-specific uncertainty indices and show that they capture important historical events related to the corresponding policies, such as monetary and fiscal measures.     

For goodwill or resources? The rationale behind firms' corporate philanthropy in an environment with high economic policy uncertainty

This paper investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on the corporate philanthropy (CP) behaviors of firms using a dataset from Chinese A-share listed firms. We find that, on average, firms decrease their CP significantly when economic policy uncertainty increases, but the response is heterogeneous for firms with different ownership types. Compared with their counterparts, private firms are willing to contribute more donations in an environment with high economic policy uncertainty. Further analysis shows that private firms take on more other types of corporate social responsibility at the same time, and private firms' additional CP in a high EPU environment is rewarded with more subsidies, indicating that altruistic and political motives may play important roles in driving the CP behaviors of private firms. There is no evidence that private firms selling products directly to consumers are more likely to engage in additional CP. Our findings indicate that the main motivation behind Chinese private firms' additional CP under high economic policy uncertainty is seeking more government resources, instead of keeping consumers loyal by maintaining good reputations during hard periods.     

The path towards sustainable finance: Venture capital and air pollution in China

Financing sustainable growth has attracted global attention and discussion in recent years. This study investigates the effect of venture capital, as a potential source of sustainable finance, on air pollution in China from 2003 to 2016. Using the unique Government Guidance Fund as instrumental variable, we find that venture capital activities have significantly reduced local air pollution in cities of China. To be specific, a one standard deviation increase in the VC amount leads to 4% decrease in PM_2.5 concentration and 6% reduction in industrial SO₂ emission. The effects are insensitive to a wide range of robustness tests. Cities characterized by more rigorous environmental supervision, superior business environments, and stronger innovation incentives benefit more from venture capital activities. We further show that venture capital helps improve local air quality by boosting general and green innovation, increasing the investment of new green enterprises, as well as crowding out the investment of polluting industries.     

Dynamic simulation and environmental policy analysis: beyond comparative statics and the environmental Kuznets curve

The paper presents a dynamic simulation model for the quantitativeanalysis of environmental policy, incorporating key featuresof technical progress in abatement and an explicit role forpolicy in determining costs and pollution over time. The modelis used to develop scenarios for PM, SO₂, and CO₂ abatementin developing countries, and the results are compared with thosethat emerge from studies of Environmental Kuznets Curves (EKC)of economic growth and pollution. The latter, by neglectingthe roles of policy and technical progress in pollution abatement,underestimate dramatically the possibilities for countries toreduce pollution while raising incomes.     

Trade-off between economic development and environmental governance in China: An analysis based on the effect of river chief system

The conflict between economic growth and environmental pollution has become a considerable bottleneck to China's future development. In the context of the promotion tournament, the Chinese Central Government incorporated the responsibility of water environment governance into the assessment and promotion system of local officials and implemented the river chief system (RCS). The RCS is an important measure to rebalance local economic development and environmental governance. However, two critical questions need to be addressed due to the path dependence of the “economic growth first” strategy and the complexity of cross-border watershed governance. Specifically, whether the RCS improved water environment as effectively as the economic responsibility system promoted economic growth, and whether local governments in China found a balance between economic development and environmental governance. This study aims to address these questions by investigating the policy impact of River Chief System (RCS). The results show that the RCS has heterogeneous effects on different pollutants, namely, an improvement in NpH value and NH₃-N but a deterioration in COD and DO. We found opposite conclusions when using provincial monitoring data in Jiangsu province, which provides empirical evidence of cosmetic pollution governance by local governments. Our conclusions imply that the implementation of the RCS is not as effective as the government claimed. Moreover, we did not observe the trade-off between economic development and environmental governance for local governments. Local economic development is still in preference to environmental governance. We recommend improving the mechanism of the long-term implementation and dynamic evaluation of the RCS, highlighting the independence of evaluation authorities, and introducing third-party evaluation and public supervision systems.     

The health costs of the industrial leap forward in China: Evidence from the sulfur dioxide emissions of coal-fired power stations

In this study, we attempt to empirically test the effects of air pollution on public health in China. Using three-stage least squares (3SLS) to solve the potential endogeneity problem in sulfur dioxide (SO₂) emissions, we find that air pollution has significant negative effects on public health. Specifically, a 1% increase in SO₂ emissions is found to lead to 0.067 and 0.004 more deaths per 100,000 population due to respiratory diseases and lung cancer, respectively. In terms of absolute magnitude, every one million ton increase in SO₂ emissions results in 0.735 and 0.052 extra deaths due to respiratory diseases and lung cancer per 100,000 population, respectively. Moreover, SO₂ emissions result in 230,000 extra deaths every year and the related economic costs over the study period amount to RMB 8.179 billion.     

Dynamic Spillovers in the United States: Stock Market,Housing, Uncertainty,and the Macroeconomy

In this study, we examine dynamic spillovers among the housing market, stock market, and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in the United States in a unified empirical framework. Applying the Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) methodology on monthly data over the period 1987M1–2014M11, our findings reveal the following features. First, the transmission of various types of shocks contributes significantly to economic fluctuations in the United States. Second, spillovers show large variations over time. Third, in the wake of the global financial crisis, spillovers have been exceptionally high in historical perspective. In particular, we find large spillovers from EPU, as well as stock market and housing returns to other variables, in particular inflation, industrial production and the federal funds rate. These results illustrate the contagion from the housing and financial crisis to the real economy and the strong policy reaction to stabilize the economy.     

Cross-Category,Trans-Pacific Spillovers of Policy Uncertainty and Financial Market Volatility

Open Economies Review - Using generalised variance decompositions from vector autoregressions, we analyse cross-country, cross-category spillovers of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and financial...     

COVID-19, commuting flows,and air quality

Fossil-fuel burning transportation methods significantly contribute to air pollution. During the COVID-19 pandemic, South Korea experienced a 10-20% decline in commuting flows, even without government-mandated stay-at-home orders. This paper quantifies the impact that decreased commuting flows have on PM_2.5, PM₁₀, NO₂, CO, and SO₂, using municipality level commuting data. We find that a 1% decrease in commuting flows decreases air pollutants by 0.08-0.17%, after controlling for seasonality and time-varying local production. The effect was higher in regions with high initial pollution, and people recognized air quality improvements. These results emphasize the importance of encouraging cleaner transportation methods after the pandemic.     

Border pollution reduction in China: The role of livestock environmental regulations

This paper studies the effect of environmental regulations on border pollution reduction in developing countries' rural areas by taking livestock environmental regulations (LERs) in China as a quasi-natural experiment. Applying the generalized difference-in-difference-in-differences (DDD) method, we find that LERs are effective in reducing border pollution: the chemical oxygen demand (COD) and ammonia nitrogen (NH₃−N) of the border counties are 21.78% and 39.51%, less than that of the interior counties. We document that the effectiveness of LERs in reducing border pollution can be attributed to the fact that LERs require local governments to make collective decisions in fighting livestock pollution. Further heterogeneity analysis finds that the reduction effect of LERs on border pollution is greater in the downstream border and underdeveloped areas. Our paper implies that the externality of border pollution can be internalized through collective decision-making between local governments.     

Trade openness and air pollution: City-level empirical evidence from China

We seek to contribute to the debate over trade openness and the environment by taking specific account of the endogeneity of trade openness. We use exogenous geographic determinants of trade as instrumental variables as well as distance to Huai River for identification which is based on China's heating policy. Using air quality measure from NASA, we find that trade increases three measures of air pollution: SO₂, NO₂, and Aerosol concentration.     

政策不确定性、财政扩张与区域商业银行风险——基于中国地方官员变更和银行业的证据

文章利用2007-2017年我国93家区域商业银行的面板数据，并结合省级宏观经济数据和地方官员变更数据，实证考察了中国地方官员变更引起的经济政策不确定性对区域商业银行风险的重要影响。研究结果表明：（1）地方官员变更引起的政策不确定性增大了区域商业银行风险；（2）地方官员变更引起的政策不确定性，通过提高银行的资产收益率降低了商业银行风险；而不确定性时期的财政扩张，通过降低银行资产收益率增大了商业银行风险；并且财政扩张的负面影响大于政策不确定性的正面影响；（3）各省的市委书记发生职位更替引起的政策不确定性对区域商业银行风险的影响更大。文章研究为新时代背景下的金融供给侧结构性改革、政府宏观经济政策的制定以及财政体制与金融体制之间的联系提供参考。     

Regional variation of energy-related industrial CO2 emissions mitigation in China

This paper analyzes the reasons for regional variations in industrial CO₂ emissions mitigation. First, regional industrial CO₂ emissions during the “11th Five-Year Plan” period are calculated based on the presented method. Then a two-level perfect decomposition method, LMDI, is used to find the nature of the factors that influence the changes in energy-related industrial CO₂ emissions in nine economic regions in China. The changes of industrial CO₂ emissions are decomposed into energy emission factor effect, energy structure effect, energy intensity effect, industrial structure effect and economic output effect. As the results suggest, rapid growth of industry is the most important factor responsible for the increase in CO₂ emissions. The adjustment of both industrial structure and energy structure contributes to the increase of CO₂ emissions slightly. Energy consumption per unit GDP is the most important measure of CO₂ emissions and the energy emission factor by itself also makes a weeny contribution to CO₂ reduction as a result of electricity generation efficiency enhancement.     

日本地方政府在环境政策实施中的作用

战后日本进入经济快速增长期,环境污染事件频发,环境问题使日本曾经是世界上的污染大国。通过国家、地方政府、企业、群众的共同努力,时至今日环境质量得到了极大的改善,环境技术得到广泛的推广,产业结构向耗能低、污染少的产业转移。这些成果的取得主要是日本科学合理的环境政策以及严格、彻底、有效地采取措施落实各项环境政策的结果。在这一过程中,日本地方政府先于国家制定区域环境政策和环境标准,对国家层面环境政策和环境法的形成起到了积极的推动和促进作用。同时,日本地方政府结合区域产业发展特征有针对性地进行环境监督和管理,为日本环境治理和环境保护做出巨大贡献。目前,我国许多地方政府对国家环境政策采取抵制的态度,阻挠或干预环境保护政策的实施,分析日本地方政府在环境保护方面发挥的作用对我国地方政府在环境治理和环境保护中的职能转变具有一定的现实意义。     

State-owned Enterprises in China as Macroeconomic Stabilizers: Their Special Function in Times of Economic Policy Uncertainty

China has many state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and they have accounted for a large proportion of China's GDP over the last four decades. China's rapid growth contradicts literature that focuses on the inefficiency of SOEs. This study shows that, in periods of economic policy uncertainty (EPU), SOEs have performed a special function as “macroeconomic stabilizers.” Using Chinese listed firm data from 2008 to 2019, we investigate five aspects of SOEs' unique functions as macroeconomic stabilizers: employment, investment, growth, financial operation, and expectations. When EPU increased, SOEs had more employment, higher investment expenditure, lower performance volatility, more robust financial structures, and more stable expectations than private firms. We employ the US–China trade war as an exogenous shock on EPU to conduct a difference-in-difference-in-differences approach to mitigate the problem of potentially omitted variables. The findings of this study provide a new perspective to better explain the functions of SOEs in the 21st century.     

环境规制推动了产业结构转型升级吗?——基于地方政府环境规制执行的策略互动视角

通过产业结构转型和升级打破资源和环境的诅咒,是保持中国经济高质量增长的必要条件。现有对环境规制如何影响经济结构转型的研究往往忽略了财政分权下的地方政府间经济增长竞争引致的环境规制互动行为,进而导致研究结论存在较大差异。文章基于政府竞争视角,借助两区制空间Durbin模型对地方政府环境规制执行的策略互动行为进行检验,随后构建空间杜宾模型分析环境规制对产业结构转型升级的影响,并进行了稳健性检验与传导机制分析。研究发现：标尺竞争机制下,地方政府环境规制执行存在相互模仿行为,即邻近地区降低环境规制强度,本地区亦会相应降低环境规制强度,彰显出环境规制的非完全执行特征;环境规制未能促进本地产业结构合理化,地方政府环境规制执行互动行为不利于邻近地区产业结构合理的均衡化发展;环境规制有效推动本地产业高度化进程,且地区间环境规制互动的正向空间溢出效应显著促进产业高度化发展;机制分析结果显示,地方政府环境规制策略互动行为削弱了要素配置效率,不利于产业结构合理化,同时,环境规制激发创新补偿效应促进产业结构高度化进程。因此,引导地方政府环境规制执行良性竞争,有效发挥环境规制对产业转型升级积极作用,有助于中国经济高质量增长。