Renminbi internationalisation and China’s financial development

There is a widespread view that China’s currency can be used in international markets only after the liberalisation of China’s domestic financial markets and the opening of its capital account. Yet evidently the renminbi’s internationalisation is preceding these so-called preconditions. This article assesses the tensions inherent in renminbi internationalisation starting at a transitional period in China’s financial development. For now, effective capital controls allow the Chinese authorities to retain regulated deposit and lending rates, quantitative credit guidance and bond market rationing. Relaxation of the capital controls would put these policies at risk. Reserve requirements can be extended to bank inflows from the offshore market but only at a price.     

The impact of the institutional and infrastructural environment on innovation-based development in today’s world

This paper provides a comparative assessment of innovation-based development in Russia and several OECD and BRICS countries. Several tiers of countries have been introduced based on the assessment. The impact of various factors on innovation performance has been calculated for each tier using the tier average values of indicators that correspond to these factors. As a result, the most common features that are typical for a given level of development of an innovation environment are identified. The analysis provides a basis for recommendations regarding a strategy for innovation-based development of the Russian Federation.     

The impact of parental education on children’s outcomes in China

This paper exploits the exogenous shock to basic education during the Chinese Cultural Revolution to estimate the causal relationship between parental schooling and children’s educational attainment in China. Using deviations of cohort graduation rates from predicted education trends as instruments for parents’ education, the results indicate that an additional year of parental education increases children’s probability of completing junior and senior high schools by 7.94 and 9.76%, respectively. Parental education not only has positive and significant effects on children’s schooling outcomes, its importance also increases with children’s education level. These findings suggest that public investment in education has important long-term effects on individual’s educational achievement.     

BREXIT referendum’s impact on the financial markets in the UK

Review of World Economics - BREXIT might be considered the most paramount event of the past 40 years in modern English history. The present research attempts to examine the impact of...     

Asia’s contagious financial crisis and its impact on Korea

Asian countries have, from 1965 to the early 1990s, shown remarkable growth performance. The recent financial crisis, however, has brought disastrous effects on these growing economies. The region has been suffering from high inflation, massive unemployment, and large drops in growth rates. The major cause of the crisis can be attributed to the international financial markets. International financial institutions lent without serious examination of the borrowers’ ability to repay. In this regard, the ratings agencies were also responsible for the worsening of the crisis. Their ratings did not give correct signals to the lenders. The borrowers’ speculative activities and their subsequent failures were a direct cause that led to the crisis. A second cause lies in the structural problems in these economies. There are still covert dealings between government officials and businesses, and these economies lack transparency. These deficiencies greatly distort allocation of resources in the economies. There should be a global risk-management system to prevent such a crisis from happening again. This risk-management system would give an early warning signal. Creditors should coordinate their efforts to resolve the liquidity crisis in the Asian countries. Coordinated loans and partial forgiving of debts will be helpful to both debtors and creditors.     

The impact of China’s outward foreign direct investment on domestic innovation

This paper explores the reversal technology spillovers of outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) on Chinese firms. Combining a uniquely merged database of Chinese firm-level OFDI and patent data and applying the Propensity-Score-Method-Difference-In-Differences (PSM-DID) methodology, we find a positive causal effect of OFDI on invention patent applications. Some estimations of heterogeneous effects show that OFDI promotes invention patent applications for private enterprises but has mute impact on state-owned and foreign-owned enterprises. With respect to OFDI host countries, OFDI toward developed countries is more effective for promoting innovation activities than developing countries. Three potential transmission channels of OFDI are empirically tested: direct technology purchases, access to high-tech inputs, and international mobility of personnel. Lastly, some policy implications are raised for China’s “Going Out” strategy and the economic development driven by innovation.     

The impact of regional trade agreements on the quality of export products in China’s manufacturing industry

In recent years, under the risks of anti-globalization trend and uncertainty of trade war, countries have been entering into bilateral and multilateral regional trade agreements (RTAs). This study constructs both theoretical and empirical models to examine whether these RTAs can improve the quality of exported products among Chinese manufacturing enterprises, thereby expanding on a new policy research area that focuses on improving Chinese export quality or import quality of RTAs trade partners from China. The study finds that RTAs’ clause quantity (measured by clause coverage rate) and clause quality (measured by law commitment rate) play different roles. The former can generate “spaghetti bowl” effect but the latter can significantly promote export quality for Chinese manufacturers. The study also finds that RTAs can promote balanced development among the various regions in China and that a new generation of binding clauses in the “WTO-X field” with more new clauses strongly affects efforts to improve the quality of products exported to high and upper-middle income markets. We also find that for most industries, signing high-quality RTAs helps to improve export product quality, but there are no effect for some industries with laggard or special advanced technology.     

The impact of destination tariffs on China’s exports: Country,firm, and product perspectives

Based on multi-product heterogeneous firm trade theory, we combine China's customs data with the World Integrated Trade Solution’s (WITS) tariff data from 2002 to 2013 and analyze the impact of destination tariffs on China's exports at the country, firm, and product levels. The results reveal that tariffs had a negative effect on country-level exports and their extensive margins. After controlling for the inter-firm composition effect, tariffs had negative effects on firm-level exports and their intensive margins, but positive effects on their extensive margins. After also controlling for the within-firm export composition effect, tariffs had a negative impact on the exports of core products; however, the negative impact diminished as the core grade and technological content of the products increased. Using these elasticities to analyze Sino-U.S. trade frictions, we determine that the additional U.S. tariffs reduced China's exports of high-tech products more than its medium- and low-tech products.     

Global financial crisis and China’s pawnbroking industry

In most countries, pawnbroking is an intermediate financial instrument to help private households or individuals meet their short-term and urgent consumption needs. In China, due to market imperfection and institutional discrimination against the small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) by commercial banks and other formal financial institutions, pawnbroking has been used as a supplementary financing source for SMEs and private entrepreneurs when they cannot get access to bank credits or other financial sources such as usury (underground money shops). This paper uses first-hand survey data in 2009 in Zhejiang Province, China’s pioneering region for pawn business, and secondary data for the whole country during 2004–12, to understand the special characteristics of the pawnbroking industry and explain why it has become a viable and useful financing instrument in China. It also explains the puzzle of a serious setback and widespread losses in the industry during the world financial crisis. A corporate financing model of SMEs is developed to explain the substitution relationship between formal bank credits and pawnbroking. It suggests that the stimulus plan implemented by the central government of China during the global financial crisis reduced the borrowing cost and lowered the access barrier of bank credits to SMEs, leading to a temporary setback of an otherwise rapidly growing pawnbroking business in 2008 and 2009. However, as quantitative easing is gradually phased out after the global financial crisis, pawnbroking activities recover rapidly, implying that the industry will continue to play an important role in China’s economic development given its current financial system which is still unfriendly to the SME sector.     

China’s inclusive development strategy and its effect on regional disparity

Abstract

In 2004, the Chinese Government declared an inclusive development strategy, ‘building a harmonious society’. This paper focuses on regional disparity issues and discusses three questions: (1) What are the background, goals and main tasks of China’s inclusive development strategy? (2) What changes have taken place in China’s regional development strategy under this inclusive development strategy? and (3) What is the recent impact of the regional development strategy on regional disparity in China? Our analysis’ results show that after the late 1970s, China’s regional disparity experienced three sub-periods: a period of decline from 1978 to the early 1990s, a period of increase from the early 1990s to the early 2000s and a period of significant decline after the early 2000s. If we divide China’s overall regional disparity into four components: disparity within the east, disparity within the centre, disparity within the west and disparity between the three regions, the first and the fourth dominated the changes of China’s regional disparity in the past three decades. After the early 2000s, both the reduction of disparity between the three regions and the reduction of disparity within the east have contributed to the significant reduction of China’s overall regional disparity. This result implies that under the China-style inclusive development strategy, the recent adjustment in regional development strategy has considerably reduced the regional disparity in this huge country. However, the recent high economic growth in the inland provinces is heavily dependent on a huge input of capital, which is driven by public investment and seems not to be sustainable. To achieve a more inclusive and sustainable development, the Chinese Government and policy-makers should pay more attention to the issues of the low growth of TFP (total factor productivity) and the low growth of labour input in less-developed provinces.     

The effects of fuelwood on children’s schooling in rural Vietnam

Gathering fuelwood for cooking and heating represents a considerable time burden for households in rural Vietnam. In this paper we examine the effects of fuelwood use on children’s school attendance using a panel of households from the Vietnam Living Standards Survey. We match individual households to satellite imagery measuring leaf coverage at the time and location of each survey, providing a robust instrument to examine the impacts of resource collection on schooling. We find that using fuelwood as the primary energy source is associated with an 84 percentage point decrease in the likelihood of school enrollment. We also find mixed evidence that girls may be affected more severely than boys, but we are unable to rule out equal impacts across genders. Our results suggest that household energy choices and diminishing resource availability can have a lasting impact on childhood schooling and long-run poverty.     

Law of the People’s Republic of China on Bid Invitation and Bidding

在中华人民共和国招标投标法施行一周年之际,应广大读者要求,本刊发表《中华人民共和国招标投标法》英文译本,供读者参考。在使用时应以全国人民代表大会审议通过的中文版为准。     

Climatic impact on China's residential electricity consumption: Does the income level matter?

It is widely accepted that energy use contributes to climate change. However, climate change can also affect energy demand. There is ample proof in the literature that a feedback phenomenon exists. However, empirical evidence of its mechanism and operation in different contexts is missing. As China is the largest consumer of electricity worldwide, a detailed study of its energy consumption patterns would be insightful. Moreover, how the increasing income of Chinese residents affects the climate sensitivity of electricity demand is particularly relevant. Using data from 278 cities in China over the period 2005 to 2015, this study applies a newly developed technique, partially linear functional-coefficient panel data model, which enables disclosure of the role of income levels. The results indicate that climate change significantly stimulates residential electricity consumption in hot weather rather than in cold weather. Additionally, the level of income affects climate sensitivity. Specifically, an increase in income initially increases the marginal effect of cooling degree days (days on which building cooling is desired) on electricity consumption, but the curve of the marginal increment becomes flat as income growth increases further.     

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: assessment of the humanitarian,economic, and financial impact in the short and medium term

What are the economic effects of the Ukraine war for Ukraine, Russia, and the rest of Europe? In this study, the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) sheds light on the immediate consequences on the one hand, but also on the medium-term structural changes caused by the largest armed conflict in Europe since the Second World War. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has triggered a humanitarian crisis. Pre-war, almost 19 m people lived in those regions that are currently directly affected. Refugee inflows to the rest of Europe are likely to be at least three times greater than in 2015/2016. As Black Sea ports come under Russian assault, Ukraine has lost its ability to sell more than half of its exports, primarily agricultural commodities and metals. Western financial support will become ever more important as the war continues. Turning to Russia, sanctions will have a very serious impact on that country’s economy and financial sector. Despite being partly hamstrung by the fact that a large proportion of Russian reserve assets are frozen in the EU and G7, the central bank managed to stabilise financial markets by a combination of confidence-building and hard-steering measures: capital controls, FX controls, regulatory easing for financial institutions, and a doubling of the key policy rate. The medium-term and long-term outlook is negative. As a result of the war and the sanctions, the rest of Europe faces a surge in already high inflation; this will weigh on real incomes and will depress economic growth. Many European countries rely heavily on Russia for oil and gas imports: import shares are over 75% in Czechia, Latvia, Hungary, Slovakia, and Bulgaria with respect to natural gas; Slovakia, Lithuania, Poland, and Finland with respect to oil and petroleum; and Cyprus, Estonia, Latvia, Denmark, Lithuania, Greece, and Bulgaria with respect to solid fuels. Aside from energy, the fallout via trade for the rest of Europe is likely to be small. Non-energy trade and investment links between Russia and many European countries have declined in importance since 2013. There are four main areas of structural change and lasting impact for the EU (and Europe more broadly) as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. First, the EU will get more serious about defence. Second, the green transition will gather pace. Third, broader Eurasian economic integration will be unwound. And fourth, the EU accession prospects for countries in Southeast Europe could (and should) improve.

     

Viability and the Development of China’s Capital Markets

I. Some Facts about Chinas Capital MarketsThe official stock markets of Mainland China were set up in Shanghai and Shenzhen respectivelyin1990 and 1991. The original intent was to improve the reform of Chinas SOEs. Theoretically,it was held that absence of owner is the main problem of SOEs; after being listed, the smallshareholders who buy stocks with their own money will care about the value of their assets, sothey will actively supervise the listed enterprises managers and thus the gov…     

Did the communists contribute to China’s rural growth?

The communist revolution brought unprecedented changes to China. Yet there is no consensus on its role in the history of China’s modern economic growth. We investigate whether local communist party membership affected developmental outcomes from 1957–78 (the Maoist period) and 1978–85 (the reform period). Focusing on Sichuan, China’s most populous province, we use the Long March as an instrument to tease out causal effects. We find that counties with more communist members made larger strides in educational attainment, road construction, and agricultural mechanization during the Maoist period. However, these counties recorded faster output growth only after 1978. Our findings provide empirical support to field studies conducted by sociologists and historians who argue that the communists improved the organizational infrastructure in China’s countryside. Furthermore, we highlight the futility of solving collective action problems without heeding private incentives.     

Has the compulsory school merger program reduced the welfare of rural residents in China?

The compulsory school merger program in rural regions of China imposed higher education costs on rural residents, decreased their consumption and reduced their welfare. In this study, we employ household-level data and the difference-in-differences method to analyze the policy effect on residents' consumption and education costs. Our results show that the compulsory school merger program had a negative effect on the consumption of rural residents and inflicted multiple education costs on them. We also find that the increase in the distance between school and home is an important explanation for the effect of this policy on rural residents' education costs.     

Intoxicants and the invention of ‘consumption’

In 1600 the word ‘consumption’ was a term of medical pathology describing the ‘wasting, petrification of things’. By 1700 it was also a term of economic discourse: ‘In commodities, the value rises as its quantity is less and vent greater, which depends upon it being preferred in its consumption’. The article traces the emergence of this key category of economic analysis to debates over the economy in the 1620s and subsequent disputes over the excise tax, showing how ‘consumption’ was an early term in the developing lexicon of political economy. In so doing the article demonstrates the important role of ‘intoxicants’—that is, addictive and intoxicating commodities like alcohols and tobaccos—in shaping these early meanings and uses of ‘consumption’. It outlines the discursive importance of intoxicants, both as the foci for discussions of ‘superfluous’ and ‘necessary’ consumption and the target of legislation on consumption. It argues that while these discussions had an ideological dimension, or dimensions, they were also responses to material increases in the volume and diversity of intoxicants in early seventeenth-century England. By way of conclusion the article suggests the significance of the Low Countries as a point of reference for English writers, as well as a more capacious and semantically sensitive approach to changes in early modern consumption practices.