Policy-makers’ perceptions of the tourism–climate change nexus: Policy needs and constraints in Botswana

Tourism is a key sector for most southern African economies endowed with unique natural capital, and the industry is increasingly being used for socio-economic development and diversification of national economies in the region. However, it has become clearly evident that the natural capital upon which the sector depends is highly vulnerable to climate change. This has created urgent governmental needs to take action through policy formulation and implementation. The paper uses in-depth interviews to determine Botswana policy-makers’ perceptions of climate change and tourism with the aim of determining policy needs and constraints. The results reveal that the policy-makers do see climate change as a concern requiring urgent establishment of relevant policy. However, they foresee inadequate information as well as uncertainties surrounding the impacts of climate change on the natural capital. This may hamper the formulation and effective implementation of such a policy.     

Effet du changement climatique sur la production vivriere au Togo

This paper analyzes the effects of climatic variables on food crop yields at the prefectural level from 1996 to 2016 in Togo. Using the panel-corrected standard errors method and panel data from departments in charge of agricultural statistics and meteorology, the results show that meteorological variables have various effects on food crops yields, but the negative effects are dominant. In addition, adaptation strategies through agricultural land reallocation have not enabled farmers to improve food crops yields. There is an urgent need for public authorities to implement actions to strengthen farmers’ resilience through practice adoption and cultural innovations for adaptation to climate change.     

Mainstreaming sustainable adaptation to climate change into municipal planning: An analysis from the Eastern Cape,South Africa

Municipalities are well positioned to support adaptation of vulnerable people to climate change; however, they seldom integrate climate change into their planning for social development. The building of adaptive capacity for sustainable adaptation requires that municipalities understand and mainstream climate change into their plans, and develop context-specific adaptation strategies that address existing social development issues. A desktop analysis was conducted to compare the planning landscape in six District Municipalities in the Eastern Cape, South Africa, focusing on Municipal Integrated Development Plans (IDPs). A scoring system was developed for comparing the IDPs of the municipalities, based on levels of context-specific information about climate change, mainstreaming of climate change with other development concerns, and vertical integration across district and local municipalities, amongst other themes. Overall, the mainstreaming of climate change in municipal IDPs in the Eastern Cape remains weak, and requires critical attention if sustainable adaptation is to be achieved.     

TREATMENT EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE RISK ON MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION BEHAVIOUR IN AN EXPERIMENTAL SETTING*

This paper explores the collective action problem as it relates to climate change and develops two models that capture the mitigation–adaptation trade‐off. The first model presents climate change as a disaster that will occur with certainty, and where both mitigation and adaptation reduce the size of the loss associated with the disaster (the so‐called deterministic model). The second model presents climate change as an uncertain event, where mitigation affects the probability of disaster while adaptation again reduces the size of the loss (this is the so‐called stochastic model). Comparing the two models in a one‐shot public goods experiment with students, we find no significant differences in subjects' choice to mitigate. The experiments also reveal a relatively low rate of mitigation for both models compared with earlier studies.     

Coping with climate change in Africa: an analysis of local interpretations in Eastern Cape,SA

The emissions of greenhouse gases together with other anthropogenic activities has caused a change in global climatic conditions with corresponding negative effects on agricultural productivity, biodiversity and other socio-economic indices. Studies reveal that the impacts of climate change are felt most severely by the vulnerable, who have fewer adaptive capacities. In Africa, for example, little is known about local narratives on the ‘causes’ of climate change, and how such narratives influence climate change coping and adaptation strategies in specific local settings. Where do the ‘local’ and the ‘global’ intersect in the search for effective coping measures – and do they? Using a qualitative approach, this paper reveals how local conceptions of climate change appear to be rooted in ‘politics’ and spiritual forces. The paper highlights not only the major points of divergence between local interpretations and ‘Western’ conceptions about climate change, but also important areas of convergence between the two ideational domains.     

Climate change impacts on China's agriculture: The responses from market and trade

China's food security has been facing several challenges, which are likely to be worsened due to climate change. The purpose of this paper is to provide an evidence on the impacts of climate change on China's agriculture, with particular attention to the market and trade responses. Using projected crop yield changes for China and its' main trading partners under changing climate, we employ an agricultural partial equilibrium model (CAPSiM) and a linked national and global equilibrium model (CAPSiM-GTAP) to assess the impacts on food production, price, trade and self-sufficiency of China. Our results show that climate change will have significant effects on crop production though with large differences among crops. Under the worst climate change scenario RCP 8.5, wheat yield in China is projected to decline by 9.4% by 2050, which is the biggest yield reduction among the crops. However, the market can also respond to the climate change, as farmers can change inputs in response to reduced yields and rising prices. As a result, production losses for most crops are dampened. For example, wheat production loss under RCP8.5 reduces to only 4.3% due to market response. The adverse impacts on crop production will be further reduced after accounting for the trade response as farmers adjust production to much higher prices in the more severely affected countries. The paper concludes that we need to learn more from farmers who optimize their production decisions in response to the market and trade signals during climate change. A major policy implication is that policymakers need to mainstream the market and trade responses into national plans for climate adaptation.     

Rhetoric or action: Are South African municipalities planning for climate change?

In 2008 the South African National Disaster Management Centre commissioned a study into measures taken by local municipalities to plan for climate change. Two areas were selected for their dissimilar climatic challenges: the //Khara Hais Municipality,1 ¹The // spelling represents the click consonant in the Kxoe language that the name comes from: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki///Khara_Hais_Local_Municipality * Brendon Solik is now a Consultant at Environmental Resources Management (ERM), Johannesburg, South AfricaView all notes a semi-desert area in the Northern Cape Province plagued by droughts and severe weather events, and the George Municipality, an area in the Western Cape Province plagued by droughts, the rising sea level and flash floods. It was found that despite South African laws and regulations requiring local government to take action to reduce the risk of disasters, planning for climate change is still no more than sophisticated rhetoric in the two municipalities. This lack of urgency can be ascribed to local municipalities having other more pressing developmental priorities. It would, however, be short-sighted of municipalities not to plan for climate change, as major setbacks in hard-won economic and social development follow a disaster.     

The development strategy for china's travel service industry after china's WTO entry: Present status and future prospects

China's tourism market is growing in importance since China's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO). It is likely that China's opening to the world market will lead to the further development of its travel service industry. Even though China will be confronted by some difficulties, its WTO commitment may have positive impacts on the travel service industry such as the development of technologies, introduction of advanced management strategies, improved industrial structure, and increased competition in the sector. This paper aims to explain the WTO‐related factors in China's travel service industry, analyzing and evaluating the sector's development strategy.     

Making tourism work for the poor: Strategies and challenges in southern Africa

This article analyses strategies for 'pro-poor tourism' (PPT), ie strategies that increase the benefits to poor people from tourism development. Based on an international review of six pro-poor tourism case studies, it outlines the wide range of pro-poor tourism strategies used and their impacts to date, with particular focus on southern African case studies. By analysing their progress, problems and the critical factors influencing them, the article identifies implications for the way forward. This review underpins four propositions. First, despite commercial constraints, much can be done to enhance the contribution of tourism to poverty reduction, and a 'PPT' perspective assists in this endeavour. Secondly, PPT strategies can, and should be, incorporated by all actors in tourism, whether in government or business, at local or policy level. Thirdly, a wide range of impacts on poor people, going well beyond jobs, need to be recognised and enhanced. Finally, PPT strategies are difficult, but particularly relevant in southern Africa given the challenges of economic and political transformation, as well as the opportunity to influence international discussions on 'sustainable tourism' at the World Summit on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg in 2002.     

气候公约外多边机制对气候公约的影响

《联合国气候变化框架公约》是国际应对气候变化合作的主渠道。为推进该领域的国际合作,主要经济体能源与气候论坛等一些公约外涉及气候变化主题的多边协商机制陆续出现,并对公约下的谈判和公约框架下的国际合作产生了影响。这些机制与公约的关系定性地基本可分为包含、竞争、补充、交叉、平行和取代六类。进一步采用指标-空间距离法对这些机制与公约的紧密程度进行定量分析,结果表明,主要经济体能源与气候论坛对公约进程的影响最大,目前公约外机制尚不存在取代公约的可能性。各种公约外机制对公约的影响主要是通过技术支持、政治意愿和具有法律约束力的规定三类模式实现。     

Urban water security in Africa: The face of climate and development challenges

ABSTRACT

Resilience has been promoted as an important objective for the global development community, in part, as a response to concern about the potential impacts of climate change and related risks. A review of the challenges of achieving water security in urban areas of developing countries suggests that a specific focus on resilience may distract communities from more effective interventions. It would be more useful to support relevant institutions to address current service delivery priorities. This will better enable them to manage future climate change and the challenges that this may bring.     

Forestry,Forest Fires,and Climate Change in Indonesia

In recent months, strong global growth, rebounding commodity prices, and relatively accommodative financial conditions have benefited the Indonesian economy. The first quarter of 2017 in Indonesia saw resilient GDP growth, moderate inflation, stable exchange rates, an increase in the growth of non-oil exports, and an investment upgrade from ratings agency Standard & Poor's. Investment growth, however, did not pick up enough to drive overall growth to a higher rate. The poor quality of banking-sector assets and the gaps in tax revenue—despite the fulfilment of the government's tax-amnesty program—are two of the most immediate economic concerns. President Joko Widodo (Jokowi), who is well into the second half of his term, is under pressure to deliver on his development platform, which includes making progress in sustainable development and climate change mitigation. The effective management of forests is key to this platform. There has been longstanding tension over Indonesia's forests between the protection of environmental values, including carbon storage, and the production of valuable commodities, including timber, palm oil, and pulpwood, which generate revenue and employment. We survey recent developments in four storylines related to forestry and climate change: first, Indonesia's commitment to reducing emissions to 29%–41% below projected business-as-usual levels by 2030, as well as the international climate agreements and finance that can help achieve this commitment; second, land-use rights and regulations, including a moratorium on clearing, draining, or setting fires on peatland; third, measures to prevent catastrophic forest fires like those during the 2015 El Niño, including the establishment of the Peatland Restoration Agency; and, fourth, the actions of non-state actors, especially large agribusinesses, in managing forests and peatland. We conclude by discussing differences in the approaches of Jokowi's administration and those of former president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's administration and by questioning whether Indonesia's budgeted resources, actions, and results to date are commensurate with its climate commitments.     

我国应对气候变化国际合作实践

我国以负责任的态度积极投身应对气候变化国际合作。借助国际组织平台,引进了国际资金和先进技术、开展多边合作。与发达国家建立政策对话和交流机制,引进先进气候友好技术和成功经验,并一起推动面向其他发展中国家的气候变化国际合作。建立了南南合作机制和中国气候变化南南合作基金,为广大发展中国家应对气候变化提供资金、技术、产品等支持。在应对气候变化问题上,我国正逐步成为全球公共物品的提供者。     

黑龙江旅游网络关注度时空演变特征研究

探究黑龙江旅游网络关注度时空演变特征对黑龙江旅游业良性发展具有重要意义.利用百度指数获取2011—2018年全国和分地区黑龙江旅游网络关注度逐日搜索指数数据.从时间分布、空间分布、时空集聚3个方面研究其演变特征.研究表明:2011—2018年全国黑龙江旅游网络关注度年际变化总体呈现上升趋势,月际变化呈"W"形;2011—2018年31个省区市黑龙江旅游网络关注度空间差异较大、季节性影响显著;东部地区黑龙江旅游网络关注度偏高,西部地区黑龙江旅游网络关注度的季节差异最明显;东部地区内的黑龙江旅游网络关注度差异性最小,西部地区内差异性最大;黑龙江旅游网络关注度具有正空间自相关,部分东部、中部地区表现为高高集聚,多数西部地区表现为低低集聚.     

Climate change,urban settlements and quality of life: The case of the Southern African Development Community region

Climate change has become a major national, regional and international problem cutting across developed and developing countries alike. Within the developing world, the effects of climate change have been devastating; this has caused enormous human suffering. The Southern African Development Community (SADC), a regional economic block of 15 countries, has been badly ravaged by the vagaries of climate change. The urban areas in particular appear to have been very badly impacted as flooding, drought, pollution and deforestation have become endemic. The impacts of climate change have triggered human suffering of immense magnitude, especially in areas occupied by the marginalised. This article is based on desk research and, using qualitative analysis, examines the impact of climate change on SADC countries, considers initiatives that the regional block has in place in efforts to mitigate the human suffering experienced as a consequence of the negative impact of climate change and, finally, considers a way forward.     

Ebb and flow: Structural and spatial change in Victoria's brewing industry, 1870–1900

The brewing industry has undergone profound structural and spatial change over the last 150 years. We examine how consolidation began in Victoria's brewing industry using a historical GIS approach. We argue that industry restructuring was shaped by four interlocking dynamics between 1870 and 1900: (1) structural economic change; (2) railway development; (3) technological innovation; and (4) regulatory reform. We show that the ebb and flow of these interacting dynamics generated a non-linear process of change. Similar to North America and Europe, the industry became highly concentrated. However, this process was complicated by local factors such as climate, economy, and distance.     

Investment challenges in the hotel industry in Kigali,Rwanda: Hotel managers' perspectives

Developing countries today compete to attract foreign direct investment to their local hotel industry. Many have therefore already changed their policies on foreign investment in order to compete effectively. Recovering from the 1990s genocide, the Rwandan Government has created an environment conducive to investment, to attract both local and foreign investment finance. This paper discusses the tourism investment policy context in Rwanda. It describes a survey of Kigali hotel managers' perceptions and opinions on challenges for investment in the country's hotel industry. The survey found that the perceived weaknesses of investing in the hotel sector are closely related to problems faced by the Rwandan tourism sector in general, such as the perception that Rwanda is not a safe tourism destination, the lack of skilled labour in tourism services, the lack of finances in the form of loans to potential investors and the lack of adequate tourism infrastructure.     

面向发展中国家应对气候变化技术转移的资金机制研究

面向发展中国家应对气候变化国际技术转移的资金问题,是国际气候变化谈判的主要议题之一,目前,联合国体制内的基金是面向发展中国家应对气候变化技术转移一个主要的资金渠道,但是体制内的资金面临着资金量不足、资金难以及时到位等问题。本文介绍现有的各类的资金渠道,针对目前存在的资金问题,提出了相关的解决措施。     

Development for children's environmental health in South Africa: Past gains and future opportunities

In poorly resourced countries children may face multiple health risks associated with environmental hazards and under-development. It is estimated that exposure to harmful environmental factors (e.g. air pollution, poor water quality and harmful chemicals) accounts for 33% of the global burden of disease, with the highest burden being borne by children. While accelerated housing and settlement development over the past two decades has benefitted hundreds of thousands of young children in South Africa, large numbers continue to face major environmental threats to their health, some of which have hitherto been neglected. Such children are likely to be particularly vulnerable to the unfolding ramifications of climate change. In this light greater urgency and momentum is needed to improve living conditions and other socio-environmental determinants of children's health in South Africa and other under-resourced countries. Children should be a central focus for policy and development as our global society strives to meet the Sustainable Development Goals.