分析师跟踪、股权结构与内部人交易收益北大核心CSSCI

内部人交易一直是资本市场监管的重点和难点,如何有效实施内部人监管,保护投资者利益不受侵害,维护资本市场"三公"原则,已成为现阶段亟待解决的重要问题。本文采用我国沪深两市A股上市公司2008~2013年间内部人交易数据检验了分析师跟踪对内部人交易收益的影响,实证结果表明:(1)内部人交易获利能力随着分析师跟踪数量的增加有所下降;(2)股权结构会影响分析师外部治理功能的发挥,国有控股和机构投资者持股显著削弱了分析师跟踪与内部人交易收益之间的负相关关系。本文的研究对于充分认识分析师跟踪的外部治理效应、强化内部人交易监管具有重要的理论价值与现实意义。     

内部人抛售、信息环境与股价崩盘

我国自2006年起允许内部人在公开市场交易公司股票,本文分析了其后内部人的抛售行为对股价崩盘风险的作用机理。本文的研究结果表明,内部人中的大股东抛售行为确实引发了股价崩盘,但是股价崩盘并非由于内部人隐藏了坏消息,而是由于大股东的抛售行为加大了与外部投资者之间的利益分离,大幅增加了不确定性,导致外部投资者压低股价寻求风险补偿所致。由内部人抛售引发的不确定性上升,并不能被机构投资者和分析师在基本面信息的搜集过程中预知,相反,一致预期的打破和机构投资者应对不确定性上升的持股调整行为反而加大了股价的崩盘风险。本文的研究对加强内部人交易行为监管,促进资本市场稳定发展具有一定的意义。     

机构投资者共同持股与内部人交易收益

本文基于2010-2020年中国A股上市公司数据,实证考察机构投资者共同持股对内部人交易收益的影响及其作用机制。研究发现,机构投资者共同持股可以通过降低企业内部人员信息优势、强化外部监督以及降低股价波动风险对企业内部人交易行为产生治理作用。进一步研究表明,在信息不对称程度较高、投资者关注度较低以及内部人持股比例较高的企业当中,机构投资者共同持股对内部人交易收益的抑制作用更强。     

内部人交易收益:国外研究综述

本文从内部人及内部人交易的概念入手,对内部人交易收益的国外文献进行了全面梳理,对内部人交易获得超额收益、内部人交易获利原因方面的国外研究进行了详细分析。     

内部人交易收益:国外研究综述

本文从内部人及内部人交易的概念入手,对内部人交易收益的国外文献进行了全面梳理,对内部人交易获得超额收益、内部人交易获利原因方面的国外研究进行了详细分析。     

分析师跟踪、投资者关注与股价同步性

中国证券市场的参与者水平参差不齐,专业分析师提供的增量信息是否充分的被普通投资者吸收和消化,现有的文献并未清晰的回答上述问题。本文建立实证分析模型,首先验证2008-2012年A股上市公司分析师跟踪与股价同步性之间的关系,然后,利用百度搜索指数作为投资者关注的代理变量,将普通投资者关注作为调节变量加入模型,分析普通投资者关注对上述关系的影响,依据机构持股比例分组进行回归分析,以期观察在机构投资者不同时普通投资者对分析师报告利用的效果。研究发现:中国证券分析师能提高股价的信息含量,而普通投资者对上市公司的关注会降低股价的信息含量,同时,其无法有效的解读分析师报告;在机构持股比例较高的样本组中,普通投资者对分析师报告股价同步性降低的效应要弱于机构持股比例较低组。上述发现不仅丰富了公司信息环境方面的文献,更揭示了普通投资者的信息解读效应。     

内部控制与内部人违规交易行为

以2009~2012年沪市上市公司为研究样本,以内部人违规交易比率、内部人敏感期交易比率和内部人延迟披露比率作为内部人违规交易行为的替代变量,考察了内部控制对内部人违规交易行为的影响。研究发现,内部控制质量与内部人违规交易比率和内部人敏感期交易比率显著负相关,与内部人延迟披露比率之间的关系不显著。研究结果表明,总体而言,内部控制能有效抑制内部人违规交易行为的发生,有利于提高内部人交易的合法合规性。     

分析师跟踪与审计意见购买

本文运用Lennox(2000)的审计意见购买模型,研究分析师跟踪是否会影响公司的审计意见购买行为。研究结果表明,跟踪的分析师越多,公司越倾向于进行审计意见购买。当跟踪的分析师中存在明星分析师时,公司的审计意见购买倾向会更加明显。我们从多个角度进行了稳健性检验,发现上述结论依然成立。本文的研究结果表明,当被更多的分析师跟踪时,企业有更强的动机通过审计意见购买行为获得更好的审计意见。本文的研究丰富了分析师跟踪经济后果的经验证据,拓展了审计意见购买行为影响因素的文献;同时,对于投资者决策以及监管层制定相关政策都具有重要的现实借鉴意义和参考价值。     

内部人交易与预售公告制度研究

本文提出了内部人基于分散财富风险进行交易的动机,并在HHW的理论模型框架内分析了预售公告制度下的市场均衡和社会福利变化。结论表明预售公告制度下存在稳健的市场均衡,社会总福利得到提高;而且,在预售公告制度下,内部人更倾向于接受透明的会计披露制度。本文的结论对深化股改全流通具有一定的启示,建议决策层考虑预售公告制度,以减少限售股大量上市造成的冲击。     

Insider Trading, News Releases, and Ownership Concentration

This paper investigates the market's reaction to U.K. insider transactions and analyzes whether the reaction depends on the firm's ownership. We present three major findings. First, differences in regulation between the U.K. and United States, in particular the speedier reporting of trades in the U.K., may explain the observed larger abnormal returns in the U.K. Second, ownership by directors and outside shareholders has an impact on the abnormal returns. Third, it is important to adjust for news released before directors' trades. In particular, trades preceded by news on mergers and acquisitions and CEO replacements contain significantly less information.     

股权集中度与证券市场的倒U型内幕交易曲线

本文从上市公司股权集中度的视角研究证券市场内幕交易行为,通过对信息的产权分析,提出了倒U型的内幕交易曲线.实证研究也发现,随着股权集中度的逐渐增加,上市公司内幕交易的严重程度也会相应增加.然而,当股权高度集中时,第一大股东制衡机制将发挥作用,内幕交易严重程度会有所减轻.内幕交易严重程度与股权集中度总体上呈现出倒U型曲线关系.这个结果也为内幕交易监管确定了重点的监管范围,能有效提高监管效率并节省监管成本.     

A Simultaneous Equations Analysis of Analysts' Forecast Bias, Analyst Following, and Institutional Ownership

In this paper we use a simultaneous equations model to examine the relationship between analysts' forecasts, analyst following, and institutions' investment decisions. Estimates of our three equation model using US data indicate that higher institutional demand leads to greater optimism among analysts and lower analyst following. At the same time, institutional demand increases with increasing optimism in analysts' forecasts but decreases with analyst following. We also investigate firm characteristics as determinants of analysts' and institutions' decisions. Empirical estimates of the effects of these characteristics indicate that agency‐driven behavioral considerations are significant.     

美国的内线交易法

<正>从事股票交易的人都知道,他投资的公司任何可能影响股票价格的动态都是极其宝贵的,因为它或是带来丰厚的利润,或是造成巨大的损失。因此,股票持有人要随时把握公司的财政动态,及时买入或卖出股票。但是,如果有人利用工作之     

Insider Trading and Voluntary Disclosures

We hypothesize that insiders strategically choose disclosure policies and the timing of their equity trades to maximize trading profits, subject to the litigation costs associated with disclosure and insider trading. Accounting for endogeneity between disclosures and trading, we find that when managers plan to purchase shares, they increase the number of bad news forecasts to reduce the purchase price. In addition, this relation is stronger for trades initiated by chief executive officers than for those initiated by other executives. Confirming this strategic behavior, we find that managers successfully time their trades around bad news forecasts, buying fewer shares beforehand and more afterwards. We do not find that managers adjust their forecasting activity when they are selling shares, consistent with higher litigation concerns associated with insider sales. Overall, our evidence suggests that insiders do exploit voluntary disclosure opportunities for personal gain, but only selectively, when litigation risk is sufficiently low.     

Evidence that Analyst Following and Institutional Ownership Accelerate the Pricing of Future Earnings

This paper presents evidence that prices of firms followed by sell-side analysts and favored by institutional investors incorporate future earnings earlier than prices of other firms. We conduct two sets of empirical tests: the first examines coefficients from regressions of returns on lead, contemporaneous, and lag earnings changes; the second compares the timing of monthly abnormal returns from earnings-based zero-investment portfolios. In both sets of tests, the results for analysts and institutions are incremental to each other. In addition, neither the analyst price lead nor the institutional price lead is due to price leads increasing with firm size.     

信息披露、市场关注与融资约束

本文运用中国证券市场的实证数据,研究了信息披露水平、市场关注程度对企业融资约束的影响。本文的理论分析表明,主动信息披露是解决信息不对称的有效方式,并且,市场关注程度对企业的融资约束也有影响,市场对企业越关注,越有利于企业私有信息的挖掘和公开信息的传播,进一步会减轻企业与市场的信息不对称问题。实证结果支持了上述理论:信息披露水平和以分析师为代表的市场关注程度提高能显著降低企业的融资约束。     

Insider Trading and Earnings Management

Abstract:  This paper analyzes the relationship between earnings management and insider trading, specifically investigating whether discretionary accruals are related to insider trading and valuation. We find strong evidence of insiders managing earnings downward when buying and managing earnings upward when selling. On the marginal basis, value (high book-to-market value) firms manage their earnings upward compared to growth (low book-to-market value) firms, consistent with a signaling hypothesis. However, the opposite is true on the average basis, consistent with an opportunistic hypothesis.     

Insider Ownership,Risk, and Leverage in REITs

We investigate the relative importance of managerial entrenchment and incentive alignment as indicated by REIT risk-taking. The two theories make contradictory predictions about the sign of the relation between insider ownership and risk. We test for the possibility of diminishing entrenchment returns to insider ownership. Empirical results for equity and asset betas soundly reject linear models in favor of nonmonotonic relations with reversals at insider ownership of 36%. Up to that point, increasingly entrenched insiders mitigate their own risk aversion. Above 36%, incentive alignment emerges as managers become more substantial owners. Leverage declines at an accelerating rate above 20% insider ownership. Together these results suggest a shift in the composition of risk, from leverage risk to asset risk, reflecting comparative advantage and a crossover in the relative monitoring costs of debt and equity. Problematically for linear models, the coefficient of insider ownership is not significant for most risk measures, producing the misleading appearance of no relation between insider ownership and risk. Institutional ownership is significantly negatively related to leverage. Thus incentives are aligned between insiders and institutional owners at insider ownership above 20%.     

Earnings Quality, Insider Trading, and Cost of Capital

Previous research argues that earnings quality, measured as the unsigned abnormal accruals, proxies for information asymmetries that affect cost of capital. We examine this argument directly in two stages. In the first stage, we estimate firms' exposure to an earnings quality factor in the context of a Fama‐French three‐factor model augmented by the return on a factor‐mimicking portfolio that is long in low earnings quality firms and short in high earnings quality firms. In the second stage, we examine whether the earnings quality factor is priced and whether insider trading is more profitable for firms with higher exposure to that factor. Generally speaking, we find evidence consistent with pricing of the earnings quality factor and insiders trading more profitably in firms with higher exposure to that factor.