汇率波动对就业水平影响的研究综述

作为重要的宏观经济景气指标,汇率水平的波动直接影响到经济的整体发展水平。文章从一般均衡的角度出发,对汇率波动对就业影响的研究进行了综述。以期为后续研究的开展奠定基础。     

人民币汇率波动对第二产业就业影响的再探讨

本文使用1995年-2014年我国的时间序列数据考察了人民币汇率波动对我国第二产业的影响,研究表明,人民币汇率升值会导致第二产业就业下降,同时这种负向影响在短期内逐渐增强。最后,在本文研究的基础上,结合我国近期人民币贬值的现实情况,提供了针对性的政策建议。     

汇率波动对贸易影响的研究综述

汇率波动对每个国家的对外贸易都有影响,传统观点认为高汇率波动对贸易的影响是不利的,但是也有学者通过理论分析和实证检验得出结论,认为高汇率波动性对贸易的影响是正向的。理论研究和实证检验随假设前提、研究对象、样本期间长短、研究方法的不同而得出不同的结论,甚至是完全相反的结论。     

汇率、利率、工资对就业影响的综述

尽管我国经济取得了巨大的进步,但是就业问题在近几年越发突出,本文通过对近几年国内外关于汇率、利率以及工资对就业的影响相关文献的回顾和梳理,对各种研究进行相互比较,将有利于对我国经济发展中遇到的就业问题具有客观和准确地把握,将有利于我国就业的稳定,进而促进我国经济的进一步发展。     

汇率波动对机电行业就业影响的分析

本文利用2001-2010年我国机电行业的203家上市公司的面板数据以及2000-2010年我国机电行业各子行业的季度数据,分别从微观层面和行业层面实证研究汇率变动对我国机电行业就业的影响。研究发现,人民币实际有效汇率波动对机电行业就业的负面影响的短期效应明显低于长期效应,且具有明显滞后性,表明更富弹性的汇率制度有利于缓解汇率波动对就业的影响。同时机电企业规模经济的发展、产品附加值的提升对就业有显著支撑作用,因此在人民币汇率日益走高的背景下,机电行业更应加速行业资源整合和产业升级。     

汇率水平与汇率波动对通货膨胀的影响研究

运用EGARCH模型求出人民币汇率波动的量度,在VAR模型的基础上,通过协整检验并主要运用脉冲响应等方法进行实证分析,结果发现:人民币升值主要是通过降低进口中间产品的价格来抑制通货膨胀,汇率变动的支出转换效应在中国并不显著,用人民币升值来抑制通货膨胀,效果有限;扩大人民币汇率波动区间有利于抑制通货膨胀;通货膨胀预期对通货膨胀具有显著的正向影响。     

汇率波动对贸易收支影响实证研究综述

本文针对国内外学者所做的实证分析,将不同学者对汇率波动与贸易收支之间的关系研究概括为正向、负向和不存在显著影响三种进行综述。     

就业、出口退税对人民币汇率影响的分析

解决就业始终是中国宏观经济调控的重要问题,而出口部门的增长也始终是解决就业的重要通道.多年来,就业对出口的依赖性不仅没有下降,而是越来越强.国家为支持出口贸易的增长,不断增强出口退税的力度,从而保证就业的增加.但从2005年以来,随着人民币汇率的升值,出口商品竞争力受到削弱,而为保持出口贸易必要的增长率,又不得不大幅度提高出口退税力度,以缓解人民币汇率升值造成的压力.本文的研究表明,出口退税超额支付的结果,固然改善了企业经营绩效,间接增强了出口商品竞争力,但却造成了人民币汇率"低估"的假象.今后,在继续改革人民币汇率形成机制的过程中,科学厘定出口退税的经济职能,合理确定出口退税额的规模,是改革人民币汇率形成机制的必要条件,也是人民币汇率浮动空间的主要经济参数.     

汇率波动对贸易影响的研究综述

汇率波动影响国际贸易的顺利进行,传统观点认为高汇率波动性会减少贸易量,但是有些研究发现汇率波动有时也会增加贸易量.理论研究和实证研究都会随假设、目标函数、国家对象及样本时间段的不同而得出不同的结论.     

Exchange rate fluctuations and quality composition of exports: Evidence from Swiss product-level data

This paper studies the relationship between exchange rate movements and the average export quality using disaggregated Swiss product-level data between 1996 and 2015. We find evidence at different levels of aggregation that the average export quality increases in response to a currency appreciation through compositional effects: currency appreciations shift market shares towards goods that are more expensive and of higher quality. This exchange rate effect on quality is more pronounced for differentiated goods and in sectors with a greater scope for quality differentiation. From a policy perspective, this reallocation effect points to the importance of facilitating structural changes in the export composition to increase the resilience of the export sector to exchange rate shocks. Our results also suggest a positive relationship between the average export quality and aggregate export sales. From a methodological point of view, the findings imply that exchange rate pass-through estimations without quality controls tend to be biased regardless of aggregation level or type of data.     

Exchange rate versus inflation targeting: a theory of output fluctuations in traded and non-traded sectors

This paper develops a basic model for output fluctuations in traded and non-traded sectors under two alternative monetary policy regimes; exchange rate targeting (or monetary union) and inflation targeting. The conventional wisdom from one-sector models says that inflation targeting gives better output stabilization than exchange rate targeting when demand shocks occur, but the opposite when supply shocks occur. In a model with a traded and a non-traded sector, we show that the conventional wisdom holds for the non-traded sector. However, for the traded sector, we show that inflation targeting destabilizes output compared with exchange rate targeting when both supply and demand shocks occur. The only shocks where inflation targeting provides the better output stability for the traded sector are shocks to world market prices. The two-sector structure introduces new mechanisms that may turn around earlier results for aggregate production. For instance, a demand shock may induce higher aggregate output fluctuations with inflation targeting than with exchange rate targeting. Furthermore, a positive demand shock may prove to be contractionary under inflation targeting.     

汇率传递的经济增长效应研究

本文认为,人民币汇率升值压力增大与经济增长速度回落是目前我国宏观经济调控面临的一个两难抉择,汇率政策的调整应以经济增长目标为依据,重点考虑汇率传递的经济增长效应。汇率波动传递机制的研究结果表明,汇率波动以价格和利率为媒介可以形成直接传递效应和间接传递效应,并最终影响宏观经济增长。若以利率媒介为着眼点,汇率波动的传递机制可以用拉姆齐—卡斯—库普曼斯模型来描述,并通过拉姆齐—卡斯—库普曼斯测度的构造来描述汇率波动对经济增长的影响程度,指导汇率政策的优化与调整。实证研究结果表明,拉姆齐—卡斯—库普曼斯测度对于我国汇率传递经济增长效应的描述具有一定的适应性和可操作性。     

Exchange rate volatility in Latin American and the Caribbean region: Evidence from 1985 to 2005

Using a total of 28 Latin American and Caribbean countries, this study finds a negative relationship between trade and exchange rate volatility. The econometric tool for this specific analysis is the widely used gravity model, in a panel data context. A similar condition is detected between inbound foreign direct investment and exchange rate volatility. The results of the study support the hypothesis that significant exchange rate volatility has a negative impact on the economies of the region and that achieving exchange rate stability should be a goal of policy makers in the context of Latin America and the Caribbean.     

The effects of exchange rate fluctuations on exports: A sectoral analysis for Turkey

This paper examines the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on disaggregated data comprising 21 exporting sectors (BEC classification) in Turkey. Building on a theoretical model that decomposes movements in the exchange rate into anticipated and unanticipated components, the empirical investigation traces the effects through demand and supply channels. Anticipated exchange rate appreciation, in line with movements in underlying fundamentals, has significant adverse effects, contracting export growth across many sectors. Random fluctuations in the exchange rate, deviations around steady-state equilibrium, have asymmetric effects on sectoral export growth. The evidence indicates increased contraction of export demand to currency appreciation over time. In contrast, the effect of depreciation in stimulating export growth has lost momentum over time. While exchange rate fluctuations had a positive net effect on export growth before 2003, the net effect is negative for the post-2002 period. The implications are anticipated movement in the exchange rate guides export plans, signaling the importance of managing fundamentals to anchor rational forecasts. Moreover, less variability of the exchange rate is likely to improve sectoral export growth in Turkey over time.     

Exchange rate jumps and exports: Evidence from China

We apply the autoregressive conditional jump intensity (ARJI ) model to monthly exchange rate returns of China against 81 countries and investigate the impact of exchange rate volatility on exports over the period of 1995–2004. We decompose bilateral exchange rate volatility into continuous and discrete components and find that only the discrete part of exchange rate volatility, that is, the exchange rate jumps, has a significantly negative effect on exports, which to some extent reconciles the old yet unsettled debate in previous literature on the role of exchange rate volatility in international trade. There is also some evidence suggesting that the development of domestic financial market will boost international trade, but it does not help attenuate the negative effect of bilateral exchange rate jump risk on exports.     

贸易模式、汇率传递与人民币汇率安排

结合中国现行贸易模式的特点,文章从社会福利最大化目标入手,采用了新政治经济学中关于汇率制度战略选择的研究方法,对进一步扩大人民币汇率弹性和汇率升值的影响进行了分析.研究发现,加工贸易和一般贸易对汇率变动的反应弹性差异很大,不同国际贸易模式下的汇率传递系数是不同的.因此如果我国现行对外贸易依然以加工贸易为主,扩大汇率波动幅度在理论上并不会对我国社会福利产生严重影响.研究结果进一步支持加大汇率弹性更有利于丰富货币政策当局的工具选择范围,有助于国内货币政策独立性的保持,也有助于推进出口产业的结构调整和升级.是当前人民币汇率制度改革方向的合理选择.     

Exchange rate exposure

In this paper we examine the relationship between exchange rate movements and firm value. We estimate the exchange rate exposure of publicly listed firms in a sample of eight (non-US) industrialized and emerging markets. We find that exchange rate movements do matter for a significant fraction of firms, though which firms are affected and the direction of exposure depends on the specific exchange rate and varies over time, suggesting that firms dynamically adjust their behavior in response to exchange rate risk. Exposure is correlated with firm size, multinational status, foreign sales, international assets, and competitiveness and trade at the industry level.     

The asymmetric effects of exchange rate fluctuations on output and prices: Evidence from developing countries

This paper examines the asymmetric effects of exchange rate fluctuations on real output and price in developing countries. The theoretical model decomposes movements in the exchange rate into anticipated and unanticipated components. Unanticipated currency fluctuations determine aggregate demand through exports, imports and the demand for domestic currency, and determine aggregate supply through the cost of imported intermediate goods. The evidence indicates that the supply channel leads to output contraction and price inflation in the face of unanticipated currency depreciation. In contrast, the reduction in net exports determines output contraction without reducing price inflation in the face of unanticipated currency appreciation.     

关于人民币双重压力缓解和汇制改革的思考

分别从内外两个角度分析了目前的经济形势,得出了人民币面临着双重压力———既有升值的外在压力又有贬值的内在要求这一结论。根据这一结论,提出了缓解双重压力的措施,即保持人民币汇率稳定的对外缓解升值压力,对内扩大内需;接着,提出了人民币汇率制度改革的方向:短期,继续维持人民币汇率基本稳定;中期,改钉住汇率制度为汇率目标区制度;长期,退出汇率目标区制度,实行浮动汇率制。