信用评级中非财务指标引入的方法与影响探究

未来信用经济要求增强评级模型的预测能力,非财务指标的科学引入成为必然要求。本文研究汇总了目前国内外非财务指标引入评级模型的方法:模糊综合评价法、层次分析法、平衡计分测评法,并分析了非财务指标引入信用评级的积极与消极影响,以期能够进一步增加对非财务指标的研究,健全信用评级指标体系。     

信用评级中非财务指标引入的方法与影响探究

未来信用经济要求增强评级模型的预测能力,非财务指标的科学引入成为必然要求。本文研究汇总了目前国内外非财务指标引入评级模型的方法:模糊综合评价法、层次分析法、平衡计分测评法,并分析了非财务指标引入信用评级的积极与消极影响,以期能够进一步增加对非财务指标的研究,健全信用评级指标体系。     

文化产业信用评级探究——基于价值相关性的财务与非财务指标实证研究

为促使文化产业价值评估更加有效,在研究非财务指标价值相关性的基础上,筛选出适用于文化企业信用评级的非财务指标与财务指标组成综合指标体系,再将具有相似信用风险水平的文化企业划分为同类,确定出信用评级标准,从而构建出适用于我国文化产业特有的信用评级模型.     

基于logistic回归的我国上市公司信用评级模型研究

本文选择中国深沪两地上市的制造类企业,分为“*st”和“预增预盈”两组.*st组代表信用评级低,即信贷风险较高类公司;预增预盈组代表信用评级高,即信贷风险较低类公司;选出16个具有代表性的财务指标,对这76个公司进行logistic二元分析,获得各个财务指标的参数,建立上市公司信用评级模型;随机挑选制造类企业对模型进行检验,并评定该企业及其信贷风险大小程度.提出中国商业银行建立上市公司信用评级模型的现实选择,从而为银行信贷的审批、发放提供决策依据.     

对寿险偿付能力财务指标评价体系的思考

一、财务指标评价的内涵和外延财务指标评价,就是通过运用财务分析技术,对寿险公司的财务报表及相关资料进行加工;利用科学设立的财务指标,评估寿险公司过去和现在的财务状况、经营成果及偿付能力。财务指标评价的主体可以是监管部门、信用评级机构和寿险公司自身。监管部门通过运用财务指标评价技术可以发现有问题的寿险公司,对其提出预警,督促其及时采取措施改善财务状况,力保偿付能力,从而维护广大投保户的利益;信用评级机构利用财务评价技术帮助外部相关利害关系人,如保险代理人、经纪人和社会公众了解寿险公司的信誉和风险;寿险公司自身通过使用这套指     

信用体系建设与第三方信用评级问题研究

信用评级是社会信用体系建设的基础,是社会信用体系的重要组成部分.目前,第三方信用评级存在一些问题和发展障碍.为推进第三方信用评级,促进社会信用体系建设,应加强征信宣传,加快征信立法,放开对评级业务的限制,建立评级结果的检验系统,鼓励金融机构使用外部评级产品.     

我国小额贷款的信用评级机制探析

本文主要分析现存小额贷款企业的信用评级机制有哪些不足,提出要更重视各种执行标准的可参考性和可实行性,增加非财务指标的信用评级比重,目的是完善小额贷款的信用评级机制,使小额贷款风险降到最低。     

非财务指标在企业业绩评价中的应用研究

为了适应市场经济变化莫测的形势,企业在业绩评价中的方法也由财务指标向非财务指标慢慢转变.财务指标只能对企业过去的财务进行评价,不能适应市场经济发展的需要.为了企业能够在市场经济下更好的发展,如何将非财务指标运用到企业业绩评价中,是目前企业求发展关注的焦点.本文通过对非财务指标的概念进行解析,具体分析非财务指标目前在企业业绩评价中应用存在的问题,对非财务指标在企业业绩评价中应用进行研究讨论.     

信用评级机构监管问题研究

此次金融危机中信用评级机构的拙劣表现表明,仅靠信用评级业的行业自律是不够的,信用评级机构应当被纳入金融监管的范畴.目前,我国信用评级机构所承载的社会功能尚未得到充分发挥,我国信用评级机构监管体系仍然存在诸多问题.借鉴发达国家的经验与教训,我国应建立健全信用评级法律法规体系,尽快明确信用评级的监管组织体系,制定信用评级行...     

我国公司债券信用评级现状分析及建议——兼论企业债券和公司债券的分立

信用评级是公司债券的定价基础.目前,我国公司债券发行数量少,信用评级发展较晚,在实践操作运行中往往流于形式,信用风险无法评估.为促进我国公司债券信用评级的发展,应分立企业债券和公司债券,并建立符合我国特点的信用评级标准和信用评级机构.     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

金融企业员工考核系统的设计

一、概述 为配合公司人事考核制度的贯彻执行,保证该制度执行过程中各项工作能够长期、高效、准确地完成,我们开发了公司员工考核系统,实现了人事考核工作中员工投票、考核统计、考核信息分析、报表生成等功能,减少了人事部门人员的手工操作,提高了考核工作的自动化程度.