Re-examining the overcapacity of the US lodging industry

Although the deteriorating profitability of the US lodging industry has been repeatedly attributed to overcapacity, there has been little research on the causes of overcapacity. The authors suspect that this issue stems from the lack of a working definition of optimal capacity level. This study evaluates the optimum capacity of the US lodging industry based on the fundamental price theory, which posits that prices are determined through equilibrium. Results of the simultaneous equations model show that the industry has an incentive to maintain overcapacity because the outcomes of under-capacity are even less desirable. The uncertainty of demand further encourages overcapacity to some extent. Historical overcapacity cycles in the US lodging industry suggest that overcapacity seems to be an outcome of unexpected demand shocks, rather than the consequence of irrational overbuilding. Implications for the industry and suggestions for future research are presented along with the study findings.     

International tourism and consumer prices in Pakistan: a wavelet-based analysis

This study aims to investigate the relationship between the tourism activities and price level in Pakistan by using monthly data set from 1972 to 2016. In this study, aggregated as well as disaggregated price level have been considered. Co-integration results suggest significant long-run relationship between tourism and all price level of goods and services except fuel and lightning. Results of the wavelet transformation show a strong variation in short-run. The results of the wavelet transformation coherence also show an in-phase as well as out-phase both associations between the prices and tourism receipts in the mid-term and long-term periods.     

Modeling hotel room price with geographically weighted regression

Insufficient attention has been given to hotel-room-price attributions and its mechanism in the lodging research field till now. This article examines how site and situation factors differently affect lodging industry and room prices. Comparative analysis of four hedonic price models has been conducted to investigate how these attributions influence room price of Beijing's hotels above star three. Spatial autocorrelation in hotel prices and in hedonic room price equation residuals were analyzed in this research too. Some conclusions can be found and summarized: according to the estimated results, for specific locales, the results expressed in a global model might be inaccurate. The fitting coefficient of geographically weighted regression demonstrates the importance of going beyond the global modeling framework when incorporating geographically weighted regression into hedonic price model. At last, an innovative method for determining the influence of a hotel's attributes at market rates on its’ values, or implicit prices was put forward by the authors.     

Implications of a long-term increase in oil prices for tourism

It is expected that global oil prices will increase in the future. Assessing the overall economic impacts on tourism is difficult, as oil price rises will be concomitant with global changes in other commodity prices, exchange rates, and incomes. A general equilibrium perspective is therefore presented in this paper. The model couples a global general equilibrium model with a purpose-built CGE model of New Zealand, which focuses on describing tourism supply and demand in some detail. The results indicate a decrease in real gross national disposable income of 1.7% for a doubling of oil price and a 9% reduction in the real value of tourism exports. As a result of segment-specific price increases and differing income and exchange rate effects and elasticities, the reduction in demand for tourism in New Zealand by 18 segments differs substantially. The greatest reduction in demand is observed for tourists from the United Kingdom.     

If you,tourist, behave irrationally,I’ll find you!

When departures from rational behavior can potentially be expected, modeling should allow for their identification and their quantification. In this regard, prices in tourism might have effects that may not be as apparent as economic theory predicts. This article incorporates the sticker shock formulation into the mixed logit model without imposing consistency with consumer theory to accommodate any possible positive or negative price effects. By allowing the parameters of “price” and “sticker shock term” to take any value – negative or positive – we detect abnormal behaviors in the tourist demand: not only is the negative relationship between price and demand inverted for some people but also some tourists might be willing to accept higher-than-expected prices. The “non-well-behaved” groups' shares are estimated.     

Performance Analysis of Lodging REITs in Relation to Market Segments

This article examines the financial performance of lodging real estate investment trusts (REITs) in relation to their market focus. Secondary data were collected for from 2004 to 2008 from lodging REITs that were traded on major U.S. stock exchanges. Data envelopment analysis (DEA) was used to assess the efficiencies of market segments to generate financial performance. The results showed that two lodging REITs were consistently efficient during the study period relative to other lodging REITs. In particular, lodging REITs investing and/or operating in one or more relatively similar market segments and those focusing on the upper-upscale segment were more efficient than others. This study could provide managers, owners, and investors of lodging REITs preliminary evidence of the relationship between market segments and firm performance. This article also proposes a framework for future investigations to assess the performance of REITs.     

The discount effect of non-normative physical characteristics on the price of lodging properties

This study suggests that lodging properties with tangible attributes enabling them to be easily converted are more liquid than those that are specific to a limited number of contracts, and thus benefit from a price premium. Grounded in the integration of research on transaction cost and real estate in the hospitality context, this paper investigates the effects of non-normative physical characteristics of lodging properties on their price discounts. The deviation from the normative physical characteristics of an asset is the operational measure of asset specificity. We estimate the standardized residuals resulting from a hedonic valuation model on 10,722 lodging transactions in the U.S. from 1980 to 2008 to develop our measurement of price discount. Results show that deviations from the norm on the three physical characteristics used are significant determinants of the price discounts and that the significance of the normative characteristics of lodging properties varies across segments.     

Price premiums for organic menus at restaurants: What is an acceptable level?

This study identifies acceptable premium price levels that customers would be willing to pay for organic menu items at restaurants in the United States. Previous literature indicates that health-related and socio-demographic characteristics significantly influence consumers’ intentions to purchase organic food. To advance our understanding of how different consumers respond to changes in organic food prices, this study examines the moderating effects of the level of health consciousness (high versus low), gender (male versus female), and age (young versus old) on the relationship between premium price levels and purchasing intentions. In addition, this study further investigates acceptable premium price levels for different consumer segments at two types of restaurants (casual dining versus fine dining). The results of this study provide guidelines for menu design and strategies for restaurateurs to devise effective price premiums for organic menu options.     

Low-cost pricing strategies in leisure markets

The practice of dynamic pricing typical of low-cost carriers is generally regarded as a form of price discrimination between “leisure” and “business” travellers on a single flight or route. The same may not be true across different routes because of the different incidence of business travellers. If price increases in the 15 days prior to departure are meant to discriminate business demand, leisure demand should account for earlier price variations. In the present study, we used a database containing the daily fare over the 3 months prior to each flight operated by easyJet during 2009. For each route, we defined the “leisure index” as the difference between the price rates of change during the 90 days and 15 days prior to departure. Overall, “business” routes had lower average prices per km, while “leisure” routes showed less dynamic price behaviour, with higher minimum and lower maximum prices per km.     

Impacts of timeshare operation on publicly traded U.S. hotels’ firm value,risk and accounting performance

With 1615 timeshare resorts and 176,232 units in the U.S. in 2006 and making an economic impact of approximately $92 billion on the U.S. economy in 2005, the timeshare industry has proved as one of the fastest growing segments of the hospitality and travel industry. However, little research has investigated the impacts of timeshare operations on lodging firms’ financial issues. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of timeshare operation on lodging firm's financial value, risk and accounting performance. Findings suggest that the existence of an inverted U-shaped relationship between timeshare operation and lodging firm value; however timeshare operation shows a U-shaped relationship with ROE and no relationship with risk.     

Lodging REIT Performance and Comparison With Other Equity REIT Returns

This study investigated the performance of lodging real estate investment trusts (REITs) over a 13-year period. The study period was highlighted by economic growth, decline, geopolitical, and social events. These conditions and events affected lodging demand, and consequently the performance of the underlying REIT asset, the lodging facility. The results of the study indicated that overall, the performance of lodging REITs was inferior to the market portfolios as a whole. Lodging REITs' performance was also inferior to other equity REITs except for retail and specialty REITs. These findings suggest that the lodging REIT sector might not be as resilient as other equity REIT subsectors.     

Hotel roomrates under the influence of a large event: The Oktoberfest in Munich 2012

Surprisingly few studies deal with the implications of large events for hotel prices. We address this issue by modeling hotel prices in Munich under the influence of the Oktoberfest. By utilizing internet data from a metasearch provider for check-in dates prior to and during the Oktoberfest 2012, it is analyzed how the event affected the daily price level as well as price differentials between hotels. In general, average hotel prices are very volatile over time. Apparently, Munich hotels tend to set prices according to expected demand and vary those depending on the day of the week during the event. Ceteris paribus, roomrates are highest on Oktoberfest Friday and Saturday nights, followed by Oktoberfest weekdays and Oktoberfest Sunday nights, but there is a general and strong price-raising impact. Prices differ across hotels mainly due to the star category attributed to a hotel and the proximity to the event. Both price premia are time-dependent.     

Measuring price elasticities of demand for outbound tourism using competitiveness indices

The real exchange rate (REX) has long been used as the proxy for prices in tourism demand models. However it has limitations, particularly when it comes to models of outbound tourism. As an alternative, a price competitiveness index (PCI) is developed and used as a proxy for prices in a model of outbound tourism from Australia. Results obtained show that while REX is statistically insignificant and yields a price elasticity of −0.002, PCI is significant and generates a price elasticity of −1.07. The results obtained show that PCI outperforms REX as the preferred price variable in modelling outbound demand on both theoretic and empirical grounds. Furthermore, this index can be used to monitor the inter-temporal competitiveness of a destination.     

Modeling Tourist Flows to Indonesia and Malaysia

Summary

The purpose of this study was to examine the major factors that influence the flow patterns of tourists from six important tourist-generating countries to Indonesia and Malaysia. The primary determinants included in the demand models were income, prices, and time trend. Two models that employed different indicators for the price variable were estimated; one with exchange rates in addition to relative prices, whereas the other included only an exchange rate adjusted-relative price variable. Annual time-series data covering the period 1980 to 1997 were used for estimation. The results generally indicated that the factors provide reasonably good explanations for the demand for Indonesian and Malaysian tourism. The measure of thejoint effect of the changes in exchange rates and relative prices also seems to be a better indicator for the price variable for both destination countries. The study has important marketing implications for the tourism industries in Indonesia and Malaysia.     

Market structure and demand-side substitutability of chained urban hotel segments

This study analyzes how the demand in hotel markets is divided amongst chained hotel segments. Hypotheses regarding consumers’ switching behavior due to changes in income levels and relative prices are tested using data from 25 major urban markets in the United States, encompassing segments ranging from luxury to economy over 43 quarters. The effects of differentiation and market concentration are also investigated in this context. The results suggest that leisure and individual consumers of the low-scale segments may be trading “up” to higher scales when their income increase, but that upscale segments’ corporate consumers are not necessarily trading “down” when Corporate Income fall. In addition, only low-scale segments appear to be substitutes to upscale segments, but the inverse seems not to be true. Also, properties in mid-range segments are found to be the only ones benefiting from a high market concentration, while low-scale properties turn out to be the ones gaining from differentiation through price.     

Immigration and international inbound tourism: Empirical evidence from Australia

Immigration can potentially influence tourism flows. However, in spite of the vast number of studies on tourism demand modelling, the immigration-tourism linkage has not received much attention in the empirical literature. This paper seeks to address this gap. A dynamic demand model is developed and estimated using data from 1980 to 2008 for the 15 main markets of Australia. The explanatory variables included are income, own price, price of a substitute destination, airfare and immigration. The estimation results empirically establish the connection between immigration and inbound tourism. The short run and long-run immigration elasticities generated are 0.028 and 0.09 respectively. Additionally this paper demonstrates that omission of prices of substitutes affects the value of the own price elasticity of demand. The results have implications for future research and for stakeholders who can improve the efficiency of their planning exercises by taking into account additional information on immigration trends.     

Demand elasticities of tourism in Singapore

In 1983 the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific set up a study to investigate the relationship between prices of tourist goods and tourist inflow in Singapore. The analysis was carried out on a “world” level using amalgamated data for 15 nations, also individually for each of the five major tourist-generating countries. Determinants of demand considered were - income, exchange rates, shopping and hotel prices, and local disturbances. Tourism demand is found to be highly income elastic whereas effects of prices and exchange rate movements vary between countries. Two out of three disturbance factors significantly reduced demand.     

Analysis of Japanese Tourist Demand to Guam

The economy of Guam is highly dependent on tourism. Japanese tourists are especially important as they represent on average 85% of all visitors. While frequent surveys document the preferences, demographics and satisfaction levels of the Japanese, no attempt has been made to determine how the traditional economic demand variables affect arrivals. This study attempted to determine the role of consumer income and prices in creating arrival demand. A single equation, error correction model was used to measure the short- and long-term elasticities of price and income. It was found that income elasticity was very high, while price was not especially significant. In addition, the repeat factor and several catastrophic events were found to be important in determining demand. These results led to a discussion of the theoretical implications regarding the economic and cultural underpinnings of Japanese tourism demand.     

UK charter flight package holidays to the Mediterranean, 1970–1978: A statistical analysis

This article explores the commonly held view that there is a direct relationship between prices of and demand for holidays. A detailed investigation is undertaken into one aspect of tourism demand — the demand for medium-distance inclusive tour charter flights from Europe to Mediterranean resorts for the 1970–78 period. From this the price-demand relationship is rigorously analysed. The UK is taken as the case-study.     

An application of repeat sales regression to distressed lodging prices

This study investigates the price discounts in financially distressed hotels. Using a sample of 2564 pairs of hotel transactions from 2003 to early 2016, the study employs a repeat sales regression approach to estimate the magnitude of the sales discount in financially distressed hotels. The findings of this study reveal a distressed sale discount of 28%, foreclosure discount of 27%, and a real estate owned (REO) sale discount of 30%, all relative to non-distressed transaction prices. More importantly, these distressed sale discounts are greater than the discounts observed in the existing residential and commercial real estate literature. The distressed prices are consistent with the observation that hotels are risky investments and investors will demand greater discounts to compensate them for acquiring financially distressed hotels.